C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001069

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER
BANGKOK FOR WIN DAYTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: MNANGAGWA SPEAKS ON SUCCESSION, PARTY TALKS, AND
MASS ACTION

REF: 02 HARARE 2127

Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER KIMBERLY C. JEMISON FOR REASONS 1.5 C/

D.

SUMMARY. 1. At a meeting on May 28, 2003 Speaker of
Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa preferred to review Zimbabwe's
history rather than offering much insight into party
succession activities, reopening a dialogue between ZANU-PF
and MDC leadership, and likely ZANU-PF reactions to the
impending mass action. He did, however, suggest that party
talks might resume if attention could be shifted from
recognizing President Robert Mugabe as the head of state to
addressing the flawed electoral process and the conclusion of
the second land audit as a minimum condition for Mugabe to
step down. Mnangagwa also stated that GOZ would react
peacefully to MDC demonstrations. END SUMMARY.

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LAND STILL AN ISSUE
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2. (C) The Ambassador, visiting AF/S Director Scott DeLisi,
and PolOff met with Speaker of the Parliament Emmerson
Mnangagwa on May 28, 2003. Mnangagwa spent well over half of
the meeting reciting the history of Zimbabwe and extolling
the necessity and success of the land reform program,
proclaiming that, because of land redistribution, the future
was bright for Zimbabwe. He did admit, as he had in an
earlier meeting (See Reftel), there were some allocation
problems but then maligned the first land audit saying the
same people who were guilty of taking multiple farms
researched and wrote it. (COMMENT: Flora Buka, Minister of
State for Land Reform Program, supervised the first land
audit, which was leaked to the international press. Much of
her information came from the Commercial Farmers Union.
Since the report, Buka has been shut out of the party inner
circle. END COMMENT.) He claimed that the current
"independent" audit would be a more accurate portrayal of the
problem and should be completed in July.

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LIMITED POSSIBILITY OF RESUMING INTER-PARTY DIALOGUE
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3. (U) When asked about resuming the dialogue between MDC and
ZANU-PF, Mnangagwa claimed that ZANU-PF was ready to talk at
all levels but presidential. Talks at that level, however,
would be contingent upon Morgan Tsvangirai recognizing Robert
Mugabe as President. Mnangagwa told us soon after the
presidential elections in March 2002, the Nigerians and South
Africans told him that MDC Secretary General Welshman Ncube
had said the MDC took issue with the process of the election,
maintaining that the process was flawed and should have been
brought before the Electoral Supervisory Commission.
Mnangagwa said that Ncube never relayed this information to
him or ZANU-PF and that such an overture might help reopen
the lines of communication.

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AGREES ON PRINCIPLE OF PEACEFUL DEMONSTRATIONS
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4. (U) Regarding the mass action, Mnangagwa dismissed the war
veterans, threats to break up any opposition-led
demonstrations, characterizing it as a campaign tactic by
Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans' Association head,
Patrick Nyaruwata. Mnangagwa maintained that it was better
to have peaceful demonstrations now than for the people to
have pent up frustrations, which could manifest in more
violent ways. He agreed with the U.S. stance that
demonstrations should be non-violent and that GOZ authorities
should react peacefully.

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LAND IS KEY TO SUCCESSION
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5. (U) When asked whether he would elaborate on the
succession issue beyond what has been reported in the press,
Mnangagwa maintained that he had told the truth in the press
and there was nothing more to add. The Ambassador's
subsequent attempts to elicit more information were not
successful. Mnangagwa would only say that the party could
not have a new president until the land business was
finished, thereby securing Mugabe's legacy as the champion of
land reform. He claimed the second land audit was the final
step.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Mnangagwa's comments regarding the MDC/ZANU-PF talks
suggest there may be a way to resume talks if the focus of
contention moves from recognizing Mugabe as President to
addressing the flawed electoral process. At a cocktail
reception on May 28, Paul Themba Nyathi, MDC MP for Gwanda
North and party spokesman, stated that the party's early
refusal to accept Mugabe as President was ill-conceived and
has made it more difficult to facilitate talks between the
two parties.


7. (C) Mnangagwa's two statements that ZANU-PF could only
elect a new president after the land reform has been
completed and that the second land audit is the final step,
combined with Mugabe's recent calls for an open dialogue on
succession suggest the "Old Man" may be willing to step down.
In a meeting with PolOff, Victor Chitongo, ZANU-PF MP for
Murewa North who claims to speak with Politburo members
regularly, also confirmed behind the scenes jockeying for
leadership and the desire for Mugabe to conclude the land
redistribution before he seriously considers stepping down.
END COMMENT.



SULLIVAN