UNENTHUSIASTIC ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY TRYING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000816 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00816 01 OF 02 231135Z PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: UNENTHUSIASTIC ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY TRYING TO RIDE OUT MUGABE'S STORM REFTEL: 00 HARARE 7134 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE MAJORITY OF ZIMBABWE'S RULING ZANU- PF PARTY MEMBERS ARE UNHAPPY WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND THE WAY HE IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY, BUT THEY WILL NOT OFFER MORE THAN PASSIVE RESISTANCE TO HIS DESTRUCTIVE POLICIES, OUR CONTACTS TELL US. THERE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH ENTHUSIASM FOR CAMPAIGNING FOR MUGABE IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ACCORDING TO A FORMER ZANU-PF MP. THE ONLY ENTHUSIASTIC CAMPAIGNERS -- AND POTENTIAL MUGABE SUCCESSORS -- WILL BE THOSE WHO HAVE BENEFITED RECENTLY FROM ZANU-PF'S REWARD SYSTEM. A SNAP PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS UNLIKELY BECAUSE IT IS TOO RISKY FOR MUGABE, ACCORDING TO OUR SOURCES. MEANWHILE, SOME REFORM-MINDED "YOUNG TURKS" ARE ATTEMPTING TO MODERATE THE PARTY'S MORE OUTLANDISH SWIPES AT THE RULE OF LAW. FOR MOST ZANU-PF MEMBERS, HOWEVER, SURVIVAL IS THE BYWORD OF THE DAY. END SUMMARY. PARLIAMENT: A HOUSE BITTERLY DIVIDED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00816 01 OF 02 231135Z -------------- ¶2. (C) ON FEBRUARY 15, POLOFF MET WITH MICHAEL MATAURE, A FORMER ZANU-PF MP FOR CHIMANIMANI AND CURRENT HEAD OF A LOCAL NGO THAT FOCUSES ON PARLIAMENTARY ISSUES AND WORKS WITH MPS. (COMMENT: TOWARD THE END OF HIS TENURE IN THE LAST PARLIAMENT, MATAURE WAS AN OUTSPOKEN CRITIC OF ZANU-PF'S TOP-DOWN STRUCTURE AND ATTEMPTS TO QUASH INTERNAL DISSENT. END COMMENT.) MATAURE DESCRIBED THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERE IN PARLIAMENT AS "POISONED" SINCE MOST MPS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE SEE ISSUES ONLY THROUGH A POLITICAL PRISM. (NOTE: THIS SENTIMENT WAS ALSO EXPRESSED BY WEBSTER SHAMU, ZANU-PF MP FOR CHEGUTU, IN A CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF FEBRUARY 13. END NOTE.) MATAURE REPORTED THAT LITTLE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN THE IMPEACHMENT EFFORT AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE BECAUSE THE ZANU-PF CHAIR IS USING ALL MANNER OF DELAYING TACTICS TO DRAG OUT THE PROCEEDINGS. NO HEARINGS TO �A;INVESTIGATE THE CHARGES AGAINST THE PRESIDENT HAVE BEEN SCHEDULED, HE ADDED. ZANU-PF REMAINS QUIETLY DISGRUNTLED -------------- ¶3. (C) MATAURE CONTINUED BY DESCRIBING ZANU-PF AS A "DISGRUNTLED" AND "DIVIDED" PARTY, THE RECENT STRING OF BY-ELECTION VICTORIES NOTWITHSTANDING. THERE IS A "SILENT MAJORITY" OF ZANU-PF MEMBERS WHO DO NOT APPROVE OF PRESIDENT MUGABE'S VIOLENT TACTICS TO COW OPPONENTS AND WANT HIM TO LEAVE POWER, BUT THEY FEEL THEY HAVE TO KEEP QUIET ON THE SUBJECT OR THEIR CAREERS WILL MEET AN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00816 01 OF 02 231135Z UNGLORIOUS END. ¶4. (C) PAUL MANGWANA, A YOUNG ZANU-PF MP FOR KADOMA EAST AND DEPUTY MINISTER FOR TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS, CONVEYED A SIMILAR VIEW TO POLOFF IN A SEPARATE CONVERSATION FEBRUARY 22. MANGWANA STATED THAT AS A MINORITY IN THE PARTY, THE REFORM-MINDED "YOUNG TURK" GROUP (A GROUP TO WHICH MANGWANA WOULD APPEAR TO BELONG) CANNOT SPEAK OUT DIRECTLY AGAINST THE OLD GUARD. INSTEAD, THEY WORK QUIETLY BEHIND THE SCENES, ESSENTIALLY "GANGING UP" ON ONE OR TWO OLDER MEMBERS AT A TIME IN AN ATTEMPT TO INFLUENCE THEIR OPINION OR POLICIES. ¶5. (C) MANGWANA CITED THE EXAMPLE OF THE ZANU-PF PARLIAMENTARY MOTION TABLED FEBRUARY 22 TO ASK PRESIDENT MUGABE TO ESTABLISH A TRIBUNAL TO INVESTIGATE THE CONDUCT OF CERTAIN HIGH AND SUPREME COURT JUSTICES. (NOTE: THE FEBRUARY 23 EDITION OF THE GOVERNMENT- CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" REPORTED THAT THE MDC CLAIMED THE MOTION IS POTENTIALLY UNCONSTITUTIONAL AND DEBATE ON IT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FEBRUARY 27. END NOTE.) THE MP CLAIMED THE ORIGINAL MOTION WRITTEN BY JUSTICE MINISTER PATRICK CHINAMASA WOULD HAVE CALLED FOR THE DISMISSAL OF NEARLY THE ENTIRE HIGH AND SUPREME COURT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2866 PAGE 01 HARARE 00816 02 OF 02 231136Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /009W -------------- C96009 231136Z /38 P 231134Z FEB 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8284 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000816 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00816 02 OF 02 231136Z PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: UNENTHUSIASTIC ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY TRYING TO RIDE OUT MUGABE'S STORM BENCHES, BUT PARTY MODERATES REWROTE THE MOTION TO BE MORE SELECTIVE AND TO DRAW UPON THE LAW. MANGWANA WENT AS FAR AS TO SAY THAT CHINAMASA HAD BEEN EXCESSIVE IN HIS CONDEMNATION OF THE JUDICIARY AND THAT HE SHOULD NOT PAINT THE WHOLE JUDICIARY WITH THE SAME BRUSH. MANGWANA ACKNOWLEDGED THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF CHINAMASA'S ACTIONS ON ZIMBABWE'S INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION, AND HOPED THAT TRIBUNALS INVESTIGATING SELECTED JUSTICES (PRESUMABLY INSTEAD OF PERPETUATING THE TREND OF THINLY VEILED THREATS) WOULD RESTORE SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE RULE OF LAW TO ZIMBABWE. LITTLE ENTHUSIASM FOR MUGABE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) THE LEVEL OF UNHAPPINESS IN ZANU-PF WITH MUGABE IS LIKELY TO TRANSLATE INTO A LACK OF ENTHUSIASM FOR MUGABE'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, MATAURE THEORIZED. IT IS TELLING, HE SAID, HOW LITTLE CABINET MEMBERS AND OTHER ZANU-PF MEMBERS HAVE VOICED PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR MUGABE SINCE THE DECEMBER PARTY CONGRESS (REFTEL). THE FEW WHO DO ACTIVELY CAMPAIGN FOR MUGABE ARE THE ONES TO BE VIEWED AS MUGABE'S POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS, MATAURE ASSERTED, EVEN CALLING THEM THE PRESIDENT'S "RUNNING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00816 02 OF 02 231136Z MATES." YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI, LOCAL GOVERNMENT MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO, AND SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA ARE POTENTIAL "RUNNING MATES" BECAUSE OF THEIR UNSWERVING LOYALTY TO MUGABE. THE PRESIDENT VALUES LOYALTY ABOVE ALL ELSE, MATAURE ARGUED, AND DOLES OUT PATRONAGE BASED ON THAT ALLEGIANCE. THE NEEDS OF THIS REWARD SYSTEM AND THE PARTY ARE "PARAMOUNT" BEFORE THE NEEDS OF THE COUNTRY, HE OPINED. ¶7. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNAP PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THIS YEAR, MATAURE DESCRIBED THAT SCENARIO AS VERY RISKY FOR MUGABE, AND THEREFORE, UNLIKELY. THE PRESIDENT IS SO UNPOPULAR RIGHT NOW, HE WOULD HAVE TO DEPLOY 250,000 PEOPLE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO CANVASS FOR HIM, AND ZANU-PF SIMPLY DOES NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO MOUNT SUCH A CAMPAIGN, THE FORMER MP STATED. THE ONLY WAY MUGABE COULD WIN IS IF THERE WAS A THREE- OR FOUR-WAY RACE AMONG HIGH-PROFILE CANDIDATES THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE OPPOSITION VOTE, MATAURE SUGGESTED, AND THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. COMMENT: ALL WE WANT IS TO SURVIVE -------------- ¶8. (C) OUR ZANU-PF CONTACTS PAINT A PICTURE OF AN UNHAPPY AND MOSTLY POWERLESS PARTY MAJORITY BIDING ITS TIME UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, WHICH MUST BE HELD BY APRIL 1, 2002. THOSE WHO ARE NOT WILLING TO TRY TO MODERATE THE RULING PARTY'S WORST EXCESSES FROM BEHIND THE SCENES ARE LYING LOW UNTIL THE STORM BLOWS OVER. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00816 02 OF 02 231136Z POLITICAL SURVIVAL IS THE BYWORD IN THIS CURRENT PERIOD OF THE COUNTRY'S HISTORY THAT IS AKIN TO MAO'S CULTURAL REVOLUTION. THE ONLY TOOL LEFT FOR THE DISBELIEVERS IS PASSIVE RESISTANCE. THE OUTSPOKEN MINORITY OF PARTY LEADERS WILLING TO USE VIOLENCE, HARASSMENT AND OTHER EXTRALEGAL MEANS TO CARRY OUT THE PRESIDENT'S PLANS, SUCH AS GEZI, CHINAMASA, AND INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY IN THE NEAR TERM. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >