ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 001178 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER SECDEF FOR OSD/SA LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO POWER REFS: A) HARARE 975, B) HARARE 897, C) HARARE 871, D) HARARE 779, E) HARARE 779 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE IS GEARING UP FOR WHAT WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT ELECTION OF HIS POLITICAL CAREER. MUGABE WILL USE ALL THE RESOURCES OF HIS OFFICE, THE RULING PARTY, AND THE STATE TO WIN RE- ELECTION AND DENY THE OPPOSITION MDC THE PRESIDENCY. THE PRESIDENT WILL USE A WIDE RANGE OF TACTICS, FROM INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE AGAINST VOTERS, MANIPULATION OF ELECTORAL LAWS, VOTE-BUYING, AND BALLOT STUFFING, TO ACHIEVE HIS GOAL. MUGABE STILL VALUES THE APPEARANCE OF WINNING A LEGITIMATE ELECTION, SO HE WILL MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO KEEP HIS TRANSGRESSIONS OUT OF PUBLIC VIEW. MUGABE WILL DECLARE MARTIAL LAW OR A STATE OF EMERGENCY ONLY AS A LAST RESORT TO FORESTALL A POPULAR UPRISING, WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY ONCE MUGABE IS DECLARED THE WINNER. THE ROLE OF THE MILITARY WILL BE CRUCIAL, AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL BACK MUGABE. THERE APPEAR TO BE ONLY TWO CIRCUMSTANCES UNDER WHICH MUGABE WILL VOLUNTARILY LEAVE OFFICE: THERE IS A POPULAR UPRISING OR A MASSIVE NUMBER OF PROTESTERS DESCEND ON STATE HOUSE AND THE MILITARY DECIDES IT CANNOT PROTECT THE PRESIDENT AND ASKS HIM TO STEP DOWN, OR HIS HEALTH DECLINES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE YEAR AND HE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01178 01 OF 05 301230Z DECIDES TO ANOINT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA AS ZANU-PF'S CANDIDATE. END SUMMARY. MUGABE WILL DO ALL IT TAKES TO WIN -------------- ¶2. (C) ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY POINT TO ANOTHER MUGABE CANDIDACY FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THAT MUST BE HELD BETWEEN JANUARY 1 AND MARCH 31, 2002. IT IS OUR ASSESSMENT THAT MUGABE WILL HOLD AN ELECTION, NO MATTER HOW BAD THE ECONOMY GETS OR HOW UNPOPULAR HE BECOMES, BECAUSE HE STILL VALUES THE LEGITIMACY AN ELECTION CONVEYS, AND BECAUSE HE THINKS HE CAN WIN IT. WE BELIEVE AN EARLY ELECTION, WHICH WOULD REQUIRE MUGABE TO RESIGN AND HOLD A NEW ELECTION WITHIN 90 DAYS, IS UNLIKELY BECAUSE IT WOULD BE PSYCHOLOGICALLY DIFFICULT FOR MUGABE TO RELINQUISH POWER, EVEN TEMPORARILY, AND IT WOULD DEMONSTRATE WEAKNESS, WHICH HE DESPISES. IT IS OUR ASSESSMENT THAT THE PRESIDENT WILL USE ALL THE MEANS AT HIS DISPOSAL TO WIN AN ELECTION OUTRIGHT, AND THAT THE OPPOSITION DOES NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO OVERCOME MUGABE'S ADVANTAGES AS INCUMBENT. THIS MESSAGE EXAMINES MUGABE'S LIKELY BLUEPRINT FOR STAYING IN POWER THIS YEAR AND BEYOND NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. IF YOU DON'T WANT TO JOIN THEM, BEAT THEM -------------- ¶3. (C) ALTHOUGH THE RULING ZANU-PF AND OPPOSITION MDC HAVE NOT DECLARED THEIR OFFICIAL CANDIDATES, THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IS ALREADY IN FULL SWING. AT THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01178 01 OF 05 301230Z FOREFRONT OF PRESIDENT MUGABE'S STRATEGY IS THE SYSTEMATIC AND VIOLENT INTIMIDATION OF THE COUNTRY'S ELECTORATE, ESPECIALLY POOR, RURAL COMMUNAL FARMERS, THE TRADITIONAL BACKBONE OF ZANU-PF SUPPORT. THE STRATEGY HAS WORKED MANY TIMES BEFORE FOR MUGABE. ACCORDING TO MICHAEL QUINTANA, A DEFENSE CONSULTANT AND FREE-LANCE JOURNALIST TO WHOM POLOFF SPOKE ON MARCH 22, THE AVERAGE RURAL FARMER IS UNWILLING TO "STICK HIS NECK OUT FOR PRINCIPLES." HE IS ALSO NOT POLITICALLY SOPHISTICATED AND WILL LARGELY DO WHAT HE IS TOLD BY HIS SUPERIORS, WHETHER IT IS THE LOCAL CHIEF OR THE PRESIDENT ON THE RADIO, QUINTANA ADDED. WHEN RURAL SUPPORT FOR ZANU-PF SEEMED TO WAVER IN LAST YEAR'S REFERENDUM AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THE PRESIDENT DECIDED NOT TO TAKE ANY CHANCES AND RATCHETED UP THE INTIMIDATION AND PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN. ¶4. (C) WINNING THE RURAL VOTE IS NOT ENOUGH TO LOCK THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, HOWEVER. THE URBAN VOTE WILL BE CRITICAL, AND BY SOME ACCOUNTS, ZIMBABWE IS NOW 40 PERCENT URBAN, WITH THE ACCELERATION OF ECONOMIC MIGRATION TO THE CITIES OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. THE SUPPORT FOR THE OPPOSITION REMAINS ALMOST TOTAL IN THE URBAN AREAS. RANDOM BEATINGS BY POLICE AND ARMY UNITS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO3693 PAGE 01 HARARE 01178 02 OF 05 301231Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- D951DF 301231Z /38 P 301234Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8542 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SECDEF WASHINGTON DC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 001178 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER SECDEF FOR OSD/SA LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01178 02 OF 05 301231Z SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO POWER HAVE BECOME ALMOST ROUTINE IN THE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS OF HARARE. WAR VETERANS ARE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE IN THE CITIES AS WELL, RAIDING THE OFFICES OF COMPANIES SEEN TO BE HARMING THE INTERESTS OF THEIR WORKERS. MUGABE IS ALSO ATTACKING THE "INSTRUMENTS OF OPPOSITION" BASED IN THE CITIES, SUCH AS THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, THE JUDICIARY, AND THE PRINCIPAL OPPOSITION PARTY ITSELF. ZANU-PF HAS ITS WORK CUT OUT FOR IT IN THE URBAN AREAS, WHERE IT IS DEEPLY UNPOPULAR, SO IT IS STARTING ITS CAMPAIGN EARLY. CARROTS WILL HELP, TOO -------------- ¶5. (C) THERE CONTINUE TO BE REPORTS THAT ZANU-PF POLITICOS ARE TOURING THE COUNTRY HANDING OUT MONEY IN POOR CONSTITUENCIES WHILE REMINDING VOTERS TO CAST THEIR BALLOT FOR THEIR PRESIDENT. PARTY COMMISSAR AND YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI HAS BEEN REPORTED ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS (INCLUDING TO US BY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS - SEE REF C) TO HAVE HANDED OUT MILLIONS OF ZIMBABWE DOLLARS IN RURAL AREAS TO DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, AND IN SOME CASES, TO LOCAL OFFICIALS. CRUCIAL TO THE CAMPAIGN IS KICKING THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE INTO HIGH GEAR. THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN INCESSANT IN ITS MESSAGE THAT THE MDC IS INCAPABLE OF RULING ZIMBABWE AND THAT ONLY ZANU-PF HAS THE WHEREWITHAL TO MAKE THEIR LIVES BETTER. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01178 02 OF 05 301231Z VOTERS' ROLL IMPROVED, BUT THERE'S STILL ROOM FOR FRAUD -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) ZIMBABWE'S VOTERS' ROLL HAS BEEN GREATLY IMPROVED AND IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO MANIPULATE IT TO ZANU-PF'S ADVANTAGE, ACCORDING TO KNUD RASMUSSEN, DIRECTOR OF THE DANISH NGO THAT HAS WORKED WITH THE GOVERNMENT OVER THE LAST YEAR TO COMPUTERIZE AND REFORM THE VOTERS' ROLL. THE VOTERS' ROLL HAS BEEN FOLDED INTO THE NATIONAL REGISTRY, WHICH CONTAINS BIRTH, MARRIAGE AND DEATH RECORDS AMONG OTHERS, SO THAT THERE ARE NO LONGER TWO, MUTUALLY INCONSISTENT NATIONAL DATABASES. THE VOTERS' ROLL IS NOW PRINTED FROM THE NATIONAL REGISTRY, AN EXERCISE THAT TAKES TWO TO THREE WEEKS BECAUSE OF LIMITED PRINTING RESOURCES. NEARLY 3.2 MILLION RECORDS WERE ADDED OR UPDATED IN THE RUN-UP TO LAST YEAR'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. APPROXIMATELY 385,000 PEOPLE WERE LEFT OFF THE VOTERS' ROLL LAST YEAR BECAUSE OF DUPLICATIVE NATIONAL ID NUMBERS. THAT NUMBER HAS SINCE BEEN REDUCED TO 86,000, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE RECTIFIED BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, RASMUSSEN STATED. IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO MANIPULATE THE VOTERS' ROLL BECAUSE IT DOES NOT HAVE THE SOURCE CODE TO THE PROGRAMMING, AND IT DOES NOT HAVE THE TECHNICAL EXPERTISE TO ISOLATE INDIVIDUAL RECORDS BASED ON A PERSON'S AGE OR LOCATION. NOR CAN IT REMOVE RECORDS VERY EASILY, RASMUSSEN ASSERTED. ¶7. (C) DESPITE HAVING A CLEANED-UP VOTERS' ROLL THAT IS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01178 02 OF 05 301231Z RESISTANT TO FRAUD, THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF WAYS THAT GOVERNMENT CAN MANIPULATE THE VOTING PROCESS TO PRESIDENT MUGABE'S ADVANTAGE, ACCORDING TO RASMUSSEN. AMONG THEM ARE: -- BECAUSE THE LAW SAYS ZIMBABWEAN CITIZENS MUST OBTAIN A NATIONAL ID NUMBER BY THE AGE OF 16 AND THAT THEY MUST HAVE AN ID NUMBER IN ORDER TO REGISTER TO VOTE, MANY FIRST-TIME VOTERS COULD BE TURNED AWAY WHEN THEY GO TO REGISTER. MANY POOR, RURAL PARENTS NEVER REGISTER THEIR CHILDREN'S BIRTH BECAUSE OF THE EXPENSE OF DOING SO, SO MANY YOUNG POTENTIAL VOTERS--MOST LIKELY MDC SUPPORTERS- -COULD LEGALLY BE DENIED THE RIGHT TO VOTE. -- THE GOVERNMENT REFUSES TO PRINT THE VOTERS' ROLL BY NATIONAL ID NUMBER; INSTEAD, IT IS PRINTED ALPHABETICALLY. MISSPELLINGS AND OTHER ERRORS OFTEN MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR VOTING OFFICIALS TO VERIFY A VOTER'S REGISTRATION, WHICH PROVIDES ANOTHER PRETEXT FOR A VOTER MATCHING THE PROFILE OF AN OPPOSITION SUPPORTER TO BE TURNED AWAY. -- THE TRANSPORTATION OF BALLOT BOXES IS STILL THE POINT IN THE VOTING PROCESS MOST VULNERABLE TO FRAUD. IF THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6650 PAGE 01 HARARE 01178 03 OF 05 301231Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- D9520A 301231Z /38 P 301234Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8543 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SECDEF WASHINGTON DC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 001178 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER SECDEF FOR OSD/SA LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01178 03 OF 05 301231Z SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO POWER BOXES ARE NOT WATCHED EVERY STEP OF THE WAY TO THE COUNTING CENTER, IT IS EASY TO STUFF THE BALLOT BOX WITH, SAY, 300 BALLOTS AND CROSS OFF THE NAMES OF 300 PEOPLE ON THE VOTERS' ROLL WHO DID NOT VOTE. ALTHOUGH ZANU-PF AND THE MDC ASSIGN POLLING AGENTS TO MOST VOTING CENTERS, INSUFFICIENT RESOURCES PREVENT THE OPPOSITION PARTY FROM COVERING EVERY SINGLE POLLING PLACE. -- UNLIKE WITH PREVIOUS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, THE GOVERNMENT PLANS TO CONDUCT THE NEXT ELECTION ON A CONSTITUENCY BASIS, RATHER THAN ALLOWING VOTERS TO VOTE ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY. IF A VOTER HAS MOVED TO A DIFFERENT CONSTITUENCY FROM WHERE HE LAST VOTED (AND MANY HAVE),HE IS REQUIRED TO REREGISTER. MANY RURAL VOTERS WILL NOT DO SO BECAUSE THEY CANNOT AFFORD THE HIGH COST OF BUSFARE TO THE REGISTRATION SITE, OR THEY DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE NECESSITY OF REREGISTERING. MOST WILL NOT TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES TO VOTE IN THEIR OLD CONSTITUENCY, EITHER, ACCORDING TO RASMUSSEN. THIS COULD ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LARGE NUMBERS OF URBAN VOTERS REGISTERED IN RURAL AREAS WHO SUPPORT THE MDC. HOLDING THE ELECTION ON A CONSTITUENCY BASIS WILL ALSO ALLOW PRESIDENTIAL SUPPORTERS TO TARGET ANTI-MUGABE CONSTITUENCIES FOR VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION, AND FRAUD. KEEP THE DIRTY BUSINESS OUT OF SIGHT -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01178 03 OF 05 301231Z ¶8. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO KEEP HIS TRANSGRESSIONS OUT OF SIGHT--JUST AS HE DID DURING THE MATABELELAND REPRESSIONS OF THE MID-1980S--KNOWING THAT WIDELY PUBLICIZED FRAUD OR INTIMIDATION DURING THE ELECTION WILL TARNISH HIS LEGITIMACY. TWO FOREIGN JOURNALISTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN EXPELLED THIS YEAR, AND NEW REGULATIONS UNDER CONSIDERATION WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MANY FOREIGN JOURNALISTS TO REPORT OVERTLY ON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FROM ZIMBABWE(REF B). MUGABE HAS TOLD THE LOCAL DIPLOMATIC CORPS THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD NOT INTERFERE IN ZIMBABWE'S INTERNAL AFFAIRS AND SUGGESTED THAT ITS REPRESENTATIVES WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO OBSERVE THE UPCOMING ELECTION (REF D). DESPITE THIS STATEMENT, THE PRESIDENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW MONITORS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS LIKE SADC AND THE OAU TO MAINTAIN THE CHARADE OF TRANSPARENCY, BUT HE IS LIKELY TO RAISE EVERY KIND OF ADMINISTRATIVE OBSTACLE TO OTHER INTERNATIONAL (ESPECIALLY WESTERN) OBSERVERS SO AS TO LIMIT THEIR NUMBERS. DOMESTIC MONITORS WILL FIND THEIR ACTIVITIES HAMPERED AS WELL, PARTICULARLY IN REMOTE AREAS, INCLUDING BY THE SETTING UP OF ROADBLOCKS AND DIFFICULTIES WITH ACCREDITATION. BECAUSE THERE ARE NORMALLY 5,000 POLLING STATIONS IN ZIMBABWE'S NATIONAL ELECTIONS, LIMITING THE NUMBERS AND ACTIVITIES OF MONITORS WILL BE CRITICAL TO CARRYING OUT ELECTORAL FRAUD THAT COULD SKEW THE RESULTS IN MUGABE'S FAVOR. MUGABE COULD LEGALLY SCRAP THE RESULTS -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01178 03 OF 05 301231Z ¶9. (C) IF IT APPEARS MUGABE'S VOTE TALLY WOULD FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT OF HIS OPPONENT'S (TSVANGIRAI WOULD NEED ONLY ONE MORE VOTE THAN MUGABE TO WIN OUTRIGHT IN THE STRAIGHT HEAD COUNT),THE PRESIDENT WOULD LIKELY POSTPONE ANNOUNCING THE RESULTS SO THAT HE WOULD HAVE TIME TO RIG THE OUTCOME. IF IT APPEARED THAT THE MARGIN WAS TOO GREAT AND HE COULD NOT CREDIBLY POSTPONE THE ANNOUNCEMENT, HE WOULD LIKELY ANNUL THE ELECTION, CHARGE THE OPPOSITION WITH FRAUD, AND ANNOUNCE A NEW ELECTION IN A FEW WEEKS' TIME TO BEAT THE CONSTITUTIONAL DEADLINE OF MARCH 31. (NOTE: MUGABE COULD CONCEIVABLY CALL A NEW ELECTION AFTER THIS DATE, BUT THIS COULD BE SUBJECT TO LEGAL CHALLENGES AND COULD UNDERMINE THE LEGITIMACY OF THE ELECTION. END NOTE.) MUGABE COULD USE THE LEGAL COVER OF THE BROAD POWERS GIVEN TO THE PRESIDENT IN THE ELECTORAL ACT TO DO THIS. ACCORDING TO THE ACT, THE PRESIDENT CAN ISSUE STATUTORY INSTRUMENTS (DECREES) TO "SUSPEND OR AMEND ANY PROVISION OF THIS ACT OR ANY OTHER LAW IN SO FAR AS IT APPLIES TO ANY ELECTION" OR TO "VALIDATE ANYTHING DONE IN CONNECTION WITH, ARISING OUT OF OR RESULTING FROM ANY ELECTION IN CONTRAVENTION OF ANY PROVISION OF THIS ACT OR ANY OTHER LAW." CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6652 PAGE 01 HARARE 01178 04 OF 05 301231Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- D9521C 301231Z /38 P 301234Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8544 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SECDEF WASHINGTON DC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 001178 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER SECDEF FOR OSD/SA LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01178 04 OF 05 301231Z SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO POWER ¶10. (C) AS A LAST RESORT, THE PRESIDENT COULD INVOKE A NUMBER OF EMERGENCY POWERS UNDER THE LAW IF IT APPEARED THE PUBLIC WOULD NOT ACCEPT HIS RE-ELECTION OR THE ANNULMENT OF THE RESULTS. GIVEN MUGABE'S DEEP UNPOPULARITY IN THE CITIES AND THE PUBLIC'S EAGER ANTICIPATION OF A CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP, LARGE-SCALE URBAN DEMONSTRATIONS WOULD BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY. (NOTE: THIS SCENARIO COULD ALSO ARISE IF MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS FOUND GUILTY OF INCITING VIOLENCE AND BARRED FROM RUNNING FOR THE PRESIDENCY. SEE REF E. THE HIGH COURT IS SCHEDULED TO HEAR HIS CASE ON APRIL ¶30. END NOTE.) UNDER THE PRESIDENTIAL POWERS (TEMPORARY MEASURES) ACT, THE PRESIDENT CAN "MAKE URGENT REGULATIONS" IF "A SITUATION HAS ARISEN OR IS LIKELY TO ARISE" THAT THREATENS PUBLIC SAFETY OR ORDER, OR CANNOT "AWAIT THE PASSAGE THROUGH PARLIAMENT OF AN ACT DEALING WITH THE SITUATION." THESE REGULATIONS WOULD BE VALID FOR SIX MONTHS, AND COULD BE USED TO IMPLEMENT A MASSIVE CRACKDOWN ON DEMONSTRATORS AND OPPOSITION ACTIVITIES. ¶11. (C) IF THE SITUATION PROVED MORE THREATENING, THE PRESIDENT COULD, UNDER THE CONSTITUTION, DECLARE A STATE OF EMERGENCY, WHICH IS VALID FOR 14 DAYS. IF PARLIAMENT RATIFIES IT IN THAT TIMEFRAME, IT WOULD BECOME VALID FOR SIX MONTHS. THE EMERGENCY POWERS ACT SPECIFIES THAT UNDER A STATE OF EMERGENCY, THE PRESIDENT CAN ISSUE REGULATIONS THAT PROVIDE FOR THE SUMMARY ARREST AND DETENTION OF PERSONS THREATENING PUBLIC SAFETY, THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01178 04 OF 05 301231Z DEPORTATION OF ANY NON-CITIZEN, THE SEIZING OF ANY PROPERTY, AND THE SEARCHING OF ANY PREMISES. UNDER THE MOST EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES, IN WHICH HIS CONTINUED RULE IS THREATENED BY UNRULY MOBS, MUGABE COULD DECLARE MARTIAL LAW, A BROAD POWER GIVEN HIM BY THE CONSTITUTION THAT WOULD NOT REQUIRE PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL OR BE SUBJECT TO TIME LIMITS. MILITARY SUPPORT WILL BE KEY -------------- ¶12. (C) SHOULD THE POST-ELECTION PERIOD DEGENERATE INTO WIDESPREAD UNREST, THE MILITARY'S SUPPORT OF MUGABE WILL BE KEY TO HIS CONTINUED RULE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ZIMBABWE'S MILITARY WILL BACK PRESIDENT MUGABE'S RE- ELECTION, EVEN IF IT APPEARS ILLEGITIMATE. ACCORDING TO QUINTANA, THE DEFENSE CONSULTANT, THE ARMY AND AIR FORCE ARE "COMPLETELY IN BED WITH MUGABE AND COMPANY." AS RECENTLY AS EARLY LAST YEAR, THE MILITARY WAS LARGELY AMBIVALENT ABOUT MUGABE'S ELECTION TACTICS, AND SOME LOWER-LEVEL OFFICERS VOICED DISMAY THAT THEY WERE ASKED TO DELIVER THE VOTE FOR ZANU-PF. NOW, ALL THAT HAS CHANGED, QUINTANA REMARKED. MUGABE HAS BOUGHT THE LOYALTY OF NEARLY ALL OFFICERS BY LETTING THEM PICK OUT CHOICE PARCELS OF LAND--ORIGINALLY DESIGNATED FOR RESETTLEMENT--FOR THEIR OWN USE. THE LEVEL OF CORRUPTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY, AND NEARLY "EVERYONE IS OPENLY CORRUPT." "A COUP D'ETAT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE," THE CONSULTANT OPINED. ¶13. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE RELIES ON HIS SPECIAL FORCES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01178 04 OF 05 301231Z MORE THAN EVER, ACCORDING TO QUINTANA. UNITS LIKE THE PARACHUTE BATTALION AND PRESIDENTIAL GUARD ARE MORE FREQUENTLY CALLED UPON TO CARRY OUT SPECIAL TASKS, SUCH AS THE BEATING OF CHITUNGWIZA RESIDENTS. BECAUSE OF THEIR GREATER DISCIPLINE AND LOYALTY, THEY WOULD ALSO BE CALLED UPON TO PROTECT THE PRESIDENT SHOULD CROWDS DESCEND ON STATE HOUSE, QUINTANA STATED. THEY LEARNED AT COURSES IN CHINA THAT "IF YOU KILL ONE PERSON, YOU WILL FRIGHTEN A THOUSAND;" THE SPECIAL UNITS WOULD NOT HESITATE TO FIRE ON THREATENING DEMONSTRATORS TO KEEP MUGABE IN POWER, QUINTANA OPINED. THE MILITARY WOULD BE EVEN MORE LIKELY TO FIRE ON CROWDS IF THERE ARE NO INTERNATIONAL NEWS CREWS TO RECORD THE EVENT. MUGABE WILL GO ONLY UNDER SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES -------------- --- ¶14. (C) THERE IS ONLY ONE CASE IN WHICH THE MILITARY WOULD TURN ON MUGABE, QUINTANA OFFERED, AND THAT WOULD BE IF THE BULLETS RAN OUT BEFORE THE PEOPLE DID. IF A CROWD OF 100,000 DESCENDED ON STATE HOUSE, FOR INSTANCE, AND THEY DID NOT DISPERSE AFTER A LARGE NUMBER WERE KILLED, IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP WOULD GO TO MUGABE AND TELL HIM THAT THEY COULD NO CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6654 PAGE 01 HARARE 01178 05 OF 05 301231Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- D95222 301232Z /38 P 301234Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8545 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SECDEF WASHINGTON DC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 001178 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER SECDEF FOR OSD/SA LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01178 05 OF 05 301231Z SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO POWER LONGER PROTECT HIM, AND ASK HIM TO RESIGN. IN THAT CASE, MUGABE PROBABLY WOULD STEP DOWN, QUINTANA BELIEVES. THIS IS A VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO, HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE NUMBER OF PROTESTERS REQUIRED WOULD BE FAR MORE THAN ZIMBABWE HAS EVER SEEN, THE CONSULTANT AVERRED. ¶15. (C) BY OUR RECKONING, THERE IS ONE OTHER CIRCUMSTANCE UNDER WHICH MUGABE MIGHT VOLUNTARILY LEAVE OFFICE. IF HIS HEALTH DECLINES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE YEAR, HE MAY DECIDE TO ANOINT A SUCCESSOR-- PROBABLY EMMERSON MNANGAGWA--TO RUN AS ZANU-PF'S CANDIDATE (REF A). (NOTE: THERE HAVE LONG BEEN RUMORS OF MUGABE'S DECLINING HEALTH, WHICH HAVE BEEN RIDICULED BY GOVERNMENT SPOKESMEN BUT NOT FLATLY DENIED. RECENT, PERSISTENT REPORTS OF MUGABE FREQUENTLY FALLING DOWN LEND CREDENCE TO THE NOTION THAT HE HAS A SERIOUS HEALTH CONDITION. END NOTE.) HE MAY ALSO DECIDE TO STEP DOWN SHORTLY AFTER WINNING RE-ELECTION AND ALLOW A VICE- PRESIDENT TO SUCCEED HIM, CONFIDENT IN THE KNOWLEDGE THAT HIS PHYSICAL AND FINANCIAL SECURITY WOULD BE PROTECTED. CONCLUSION -------------- ¶16. (C) BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS, IT IS OUR ASSESSMENT THAT MUGABE WILL WIN RE-ELECTION AND WILL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01178 05 OF 05 301231Z INVOKE A HOST OF LEGAL MEASURES, BACKED BY THE MILITARY, TO OVERCOME ANY POPULAR BACKLASH. MUGABE STILL VALUES THE STAMP OF LEGITIMACY THAT AN ELECTION CONVEYS TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, AND WILL DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO ENSURE THAT THE ELECTORATE MAKES THE "CORRECT" CHOICE. THE PRESIDENT WILL USE EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES, SUCH AS A STATE OF EMERGENCY OR MARTIAL LAW, AS A LAST RESORT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE OPPOSITION OR CIVIL SOCIETY HAS THE WHEREWITHAL OR ORGANIZATIONAL ABILITY AT THIS TIME TO OVERCOME PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CONSIDERABLE ADVANTAGES AS INCUMBENT, DESPITE HIS LACK OF POPULARITY. MUGABE'S RELENTLESS ELECTIONEERING MAY EVEN TURN AROUND HIS SAGGING POPULARITY IN TRADTIONAL ZANU-PF AREAS. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >