NEW ZIMBABWE POLITBURO STRENGTHENS MNANGAGWA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 007266

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/10
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TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: NEW ZIMBABWE POLITBURO STRENGTHENS MNANGAGWA'S
BID TO SUCCEED MUGABE

REFS: A) HARARE 7164, B) HARARE 7134

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: PRESIDENT MUGABE'S NEW ZANU-PF
POLITBURO, APPOINTED DECEMBER 15 AT THE SPECIAL PARTY
CONGRESS (REF B),STRENGTHENS SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT
EMMERSON MNANGAGWA'S POSITION IN THE PARTY AND COULD
SIGNAL MUGABE'S INTENTION TO MAKE MNANGAGWA HIS
SUCCESSOR. SINCE JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS,
MNANGAGWA HAS BEEN BROUGHT BACK FROM THE BRINK OF
POLITICAL EXTINCTION AFTER LOSING HIS LEGISLATIVE SEAT.
THE NEW POLITBURO ALSO EFFECTIVELY MARGINALIZES THE
NDEBELE AND MANICA ETHNIC GROUPS, TWO GROUPS
INCREASINGLY VIEWED IN THE PARTY AS SYMPATHETIC TO THE
OPPOSITION MDC, ACCORDING TO ONE LOCAL POLITICAL
OBSERVER. MNANGAGWA, WIDELY FEARED AND DESPISED
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY, COULD BE AN EVEN MORE REPRESSIVE
LEADER IF HE TURNS OUT TO BE MUGABE'S ANNOINTED ONE.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) MUGABE'S NEWLY APPOINTED RULING PARTY POLITBURO,
ANNOUNCED DECEMBER 15 AT THE ZANU-PF SPECIAL CONGRESS,
APPEARS TO FAVOR THE ASCENDANCY OF SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT
EMMERSON MNANGAGWA. MNANGAGWA, WHO DIRECTED THE CIO AND
PRESIDED OVER THE MATABELELAND MASSACRES DURING THE
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1980S, WAS ON THE BRINK OF POLITICAL OBLIVION EARLIER
THIS YEAR AFTER HE LOST HIS KWEKWE SEAT IN THE JUNE
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TO THE OBSCURE BLESSING CHEBONDO
OF THE MDC. MUGABE RESCUED HIM BY ENSURING HE WAS
ELECTED SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT IN AUGUST. MNANGAGWA'S
POSITION WAS FURTHER STRENGTHENED WITH HIS APPOINTMENT
TO THE NUMBER FOUR POSITION IN THE PARTY AS SECRETARY
FOR ADMINISTRATION (ONLY PRESIDENT MUGABE AND THE TWO
VICE-PRESIDENTS HOLD HIGHER POSITIONS). MNANGAGWA
REPLACED DIDYMUS MUTASA, WHO IS CANINELY LOYAL TO
MNANGAGWA AND WHOSE OWN PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRATIONS NOW
HAVE BEEN SIDELINED. FROM THIS PLATFORM, MNANGAGWA WILL
BE ABLE TO EXERCISE CONSIDERABLE CONTROL OVER ZANU-PF'S
STRUCTURES AND THE PEOPLE WHO FILL THEM.


3. (C) STRENGTHENING MNANGAGWA'S POSITION IN THE NEW
POLITBURO IS THE APPOINTMENT OF HIS ALLIES TO IMPORTANT
POSITIONS AND THE SIDELINING OF HIS RIVALS. ACCORDING TO
THE "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT," RICHARD HOVE IS AN ALLY OF
MNANGAGWA'S FROM HIS HOME MIDLANDS PROVINCE, AND WAS
MADE SECRETARY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS. HOVE WAS ALSO
APPOINTED TO HEAD UP THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S NEW LAND
REFORM STANDING COMMITTEE (REF B). THE "INDEPENDENT"
DESCRIBES OTHER POLITBURO ALLIES OF THE SPEAKER AS:
DAVID KARIMANZIRA (MASHONALAND EAST GOVERNOR AND ZANU-PF
SECRETARY FOR FINANCE),WITNESS MANGWENDE (DEPUTY

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SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION),AND ENOS CHIKOWORE

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(SECRETARY FOR LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT). EACH NOW
OCCUPIES SOME OF THE POLITBURO'S MOST CRITICAL PORTFOLIOS,
AND EACH WAS ELEVATED FROM OBSCURE POSTS IN THE POLITBURO
STRUCTURE. THEY ARE ALSO MOSTLY SPENT FORCES KNOWN FOR
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THEIR STRIDENT AND SHRILL ANTI-WESTERN REMARKS. (NOTE:
ALTHOUGH IT IS UNKNOWN TO WHAT EXTENT YOUTH DEVELOPMENT
MINISTER AND PARTY COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI SUPPORTS
MNANGAGWA, THE 36-YEAR-OLD GEZI HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF
AN MNANGAGWA PROTEGE. GEZI, AS GOVERNOR OF MASHONALAND
WEST, WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN DIRECTING THE TERROR CAMPAIGN
AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS IN HIS PROVINCE EARLIER THIS
YEAR, AND HE IS CURRENTLY LEADING A CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE
IN THE BIKITA WEST CONSTITUENCY FOR THE JANUARY BY-
ELECTION [REF A]. END NOTE.)


4. (C) MNANGAGWA RIVALS, SUCH AS ENERGY MINISTER SYDNEY
SEKERAMAYI AS SECRETARY FOR HEALTH AND CHILD WELFARE,
AND FORMER ARMY GENERAL SOLOMON MUJURU AS MEMBER WITHOUT
PORTFOLIO, HAVE BEEN RELEGATED TO THE POLITBURO
PERIPHERY. ACCORDING TO UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE
PROFESSOR BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, RIVAL EDDISON ZVOBGO WAS
FORCED OUT OF THE POLITBURO ALTOGETHER AS A WAY TO
PROTECT MNANGAGWA'S ASCENDANCY. A POTENTIAL RIVAL,
FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI--OFTEN TOUTED AS A
POSSIBLE SUCCESSOR TO MUGABE--WAS MADE THE PARTY'S
DEPUTY SECRETARY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, UNDER THE
WATCHFUL EYE OF MNANGAGWA'S FRIEND HOVE. THE NEW
POLITBURO HAS BEEN SET UP TO SUPPORT MNANGAGWA AND

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /006W
-------------- B06523 281246Z /38
O 281245Z DEC 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7897
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 007266

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/10
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PAGE 02 HARARE 07266 02 OF 02 281245Z
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: NEW ZIMBABWE POLITBURO STRENGTHENS MNANGAGWA'S
BID TO SUCCEED MUGABE

SIDELINE HIS FOES, ACCORDING TO RAFTOPOULOS.


5. (C) RAFTOPOULOS TOLD US THAT HE ALSO SEES AN ETHNIC
DIMENSION TO THE POLITBURO APPOINTMENTS. THE NDEBELE
AND MANICA--WHOSE HOME PROVINCES ARE DOMINATED BY THE
MDC--ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPPOSITION, AND ZANU-PF
MEMBERS FROM THOSE AREAS ARE MORE OFTEN SUSPECTED OF
HARBORING SYMPATHIES FOR THE OPPOSITION. AS A RESULT,
THE NDEBELE OR MANICA NO LONGER RETAIN INDEPENDENT POWER
BASES IN ZANU-PF, AND THE NEW POLITBURO REFLECTS THAT,
ACCORDING TO RAFTOPOULOS. NONE OF THE NEW POLITBURO
DEPARTMENT HEADS HAIL FROM MATABELELAND OR MANICALAND,
TO OUR KNOWLEDGE. THE DEPARTURE OF ZVOBGO WEAKENS HIS
POSITION IN KALANGA-DOMINATED MASVINGO, WHERE ZANU-PF
AND THE MDC ARE BATTLING FOR INFLUENCE. ZANU-PF IS
TRYING TO THWART A POSSIBLE NDEBELE-KALANGA ALLIANCE LED
BY ZVOBGO, WHO HAS BEEN TRYING TO DILUTE THE ZANU-PF
LEADERSHIP'S AUTHORITY IN MASVINGO, RAFTOPOULOS STATED.
ZANU-PF IS TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN "POWER AXIS"
BETWEEN THE ZEZURU OF MASHONALAND AND THE KALANGA OF
MASVINGO BY SIDELINING ZVOBGO AND INSTALLING PARTY
LEADERS LOYAL TO HARARE IN MASVINGO, ACCORDING TO
RAFTOPOULOS.


6. (C) COMMENT: MUGABE'S NEW POLITBURO NOT ONLY
CONSOLIDATES HIS OWN POSITION IN ZANU-PF, IT APPEARS TO
PUT MNANGAGWA NEAR THE APEX OF PARTY POWER. IF MUGABE
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IS INDEED THINKING OF STEPPING DOWN A YEAR OR TWO AFTER
WINNING ONE MORE TERM, AS A NUMBER OF INTERLOCUTORS HAVE
TOLD US, NOW WOULD BE THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING A
SUCCESSOR. MNANGAGWA IS A LONG-TIME AND CLOSE ALLY OF
MUGABE AND HAS THE FULL CONFIDENCE OF THE PRESIDENT.
THE SPEAKER'S FEARED REPUTATION AS AN "ENFORCER" WOULD
SERVE MUGABE'S DESIRE TO HOLD ZANU-PF TOGETHER AND
DEFEAT THE MDC USING ANY MEANS NECESSARY. IF HE BECAME
PRESIDENT, MNANGAGWA COULD TURN OUT TO BE JUST AS
DICTATORIAL AS MUGABE; RAFTOPOULOS BELIEVES HE WOULD BE
EVEN MORE RUTHLESS THAN MUGABE. IT IS STILL FAR TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHETHER MNANGAGWA IS THE ACTUAL HEIR
APPARENT, BUT RECENT EVENTS MAKE HIM THE EARLY FAVORITE.

IRVING

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