ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY IGNORING CLAMOR FOR CHANGE AT ITS OWN PERIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 005829 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY IGNORING CLAMOR FOR CHANGE AT ITS OWN PERIL CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05829 01 OF 03 131101Z ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: POLITICAL PUNDITS AND WOULD-BE REFORMERS ARE AGAIN RAISING THEIR HOPES THAT THE ZANU-PF EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS DUE TO BE HELD BY THE END OF THE YEAR WILL RESULT IN THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF A SUCCESSOR TO MUGABE AND A REJUVENATION OF THE PARTY. THE POPULATION AT LARGE, VICTIMIZED BY THE PARTY'S ONGOING CAMPAIGN OF TERROR AND ECONOMIC MISMANAGEMENT, IS INCREASINGLY EAGER FOR A CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP. ZANU-PF'S LEADERSHIP, HOWEVER, DOES NOT SEE, OR CHOOSES TO IGNORE, THE WRITING ON THE WALL, AND IS LIKELY TO SQUELCH ANY ATTEMPTS BY THE PARTY'S "YOUNG TURKS" TO ASSUME A GREATER ROLE IN RUNNING THE COUNTRY. THE PARTY LEADERSHIP IS REDOUBLING ITS EFFORTS TO CLAMP DOWN ON DISSENT AND IS FURTHER ATTEMPTING TO CONCENTRATE POWER IN THE HANDS OF THE PRESIDENT WHILE THE DEMAND FOR GREATER PLURALITY INCREASES. THIS YEAR'S PARTY CONGRESS IS PROBABLY THE LAST GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR MANAGEABLE CHANGE WITHIN ZANU- PF, AND, ONCE MISSED, WILL COME BACK TO HAUNT THE PARTY MANY-FOLD IN 2002'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) ACCORDING TO RECENT PRESS ARTICLES, THE SUCCESSION ISSUE IS LIKELY TO COME UP AGAIN AT THIS YEAR'S EXTRAORDINARY PARTY CONGRESS, DUE TO BE HELD BY THE END OF THE YEAR (A DATE HAS NOT BEEN SET). ON SEPTEMBER 29, ZANU-PF'S SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION DIDYMUS MUTASA ANNOUNCED THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD BE THE PARTY'S NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT IN 2002. THE DECISION WAS REACHED AT A RECENT CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETING, APPARENTLY WITHOUT MUCH DEBATE. THE ANNOUNCEMENT SET OFF A STIR WITHIN THE PARTY, AND THE LEADERSHIP HAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05829 01 OF 03 131101Z SINCE BACKPEDALED, SAYING THAT THE PARTY'S NOMINEE WOULD BE DETERMINED AT THE CONGRESS. OUR PARTY CONTACTS HAVE CHARACTERIZED THE EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS AS A CONTINUATION OF "UNFINISHED BUSINESS" FROM LAST DECEMBER'S FIVE-YEAR CONGRESS. MICHAEL MATAURE, A FORMER ZANU-PF MP FROM MANICALAND, TOLD US THAT THE SPECIAL CONGRESS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE HELD IN MARCH OR APRIL, BUT BECAUSE OF THE REFERENDUM DEFEAT IN FEBRUARY, IT WAS POSTPONED. MATAURE WENT SO FAR AS TO SAY THAT MUGABE HAD BEEN READY TO DISCUSS FINDING A SUCCESSOR AT THAT CONGRESS, BUT INSTEAD DUG IN HIS HEELS WHEN IT BECAME APPARENT THAT THE PARTY WAS LOSING POPULAR SUPPORT AND AND THE MEMBERSHIP WANTED HIM TO GO. NOW, MUGABE IS UNLIKELY TO GIVE SERIOUS CONSIDERATION TO ANOINTING A SUCCESSOR, BELIEVING THAT HE IS THE ONLY FIGURE WHO CAN HOLD THE PARTY, AND THE COUNTRY, TOGETHER, MATAURE OPINED. ¶3. SINCE THE PARTY'S BACKPEDALING ON MUGABE'S "NOMINATION," A CHORUS OF POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS HAVE CHIMED IN ON THEIR WILLINGNESS TO ASSUME THE REIGNS SHOULD MUGABE DECLINE TO RUN AGAIN. THE 78-YEAR-OLD VICE-PRESIDENT SIMON MUZENDA, WHO HAS BEEN OUT OF THE LIMELIGHT FOR SOME TIME, IS MAKING IT KNOWN WITHIN PARTY CIRCLES THAT HE WISHES TO SUCCEED MUGABE SHOULD HE DECIDE TO RETIRE, ACCORDING TO THE "FINANCIAL GAZETTE." OTHER PARTY STALWARTS ARE QUIETLY LOBBYING FOR CONSIDERATION. IDEN WETHERELL, DEPUTY EDITOR OF THE "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT," TOLD US THAT HE DOESN'T SEE ANYONE IN THE PARTY WITH THE STATURE OR BACKING TO CHALLENGE MUGABE FOR THE PRESIDENCY, OR EVEN FORM A CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 05829 01 OF 03 131101Z LASTING GOVERNMENT SHOULD MUGABE STEP DOWN. MOST OF THE OLD GUARD ARE COMPLETELY BEHOLDEN TO THE PRESIDENT AND LACK THE POLITICAL WHEREWITHAL NEEDED TO CONTROL THE FRACTIOUS RULING PARTY. FURTHERMORE, THEY ARE "CONTAMINATED" BY THEIR ASSOCIATION WITH MUGABE, MAKING ANY ONE OF THEM UNPALATABLE TO THE PUBLIC. ONE-TIME POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA AND MINES AND ENERGY MINISTER SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI ARE OUT OF THE RUNNING DUE TO THEIR ELECTORAL SETBACKS, ACCORDING TO WETHERELL. FORMER AGRICULTURE MINISTER KUMBIRAI KANGAI AND FORMER HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER DUMISO DABENGWA ARE COMPLETELY WASHED UP POLITICALLY, WETHERELL SAID. MASVINGO PARTY "SUPREMO" EDDISON ZVOBGO FANCIES HIMSELF AS A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, BUT HIS DECLINING HEALTH REMOVES HIM FROM SERIOUS CONSIDERATION, WETHERELL STATED. HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER AND PARTY CHAIRMAN JOHN NKOMO IS A PARTY HACK WHO OBTAINED HIS POSITION ONLY BECAUSE OTHERS IN THE PARTY DID NOT WANT TO SEE MNANGAGWA ASSUME THE ZANU-PF CHAIRMANSHIP. FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, WHO IS WIDELY TOUTED IN THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AS A POSSIBLE SUCCESSOR, LACKS THE CREDENTIALS AND POLITICAL SUPPORT TO SUCCEED MUGABE, WETHERELL OFFERED. ¶4. (C) THERE IS A WIDENING SPLIT IN ZANU-PF BETWEEN THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7415 PAGE 01 HARARE 05829 02 OF 03 131101Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- 913C9C 131101Z /38 P 131101Z OCT 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7356 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 005829 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY IGNORING CLAMOR FOR CHANGE AT ITS OWN PERIL OLD GUARD (WITH LINKS TO THE LIBERATION WAR OF THE 1970S) AND THE SO-CALLED "YOUNG TURKS." WETHERELL DID CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05829 02 OF 03 131101Z NOT DESCRIBE THE YOUNG TURKS AS A FACTION, BUT MORE AS A DIVERSE GROUPING OF YOUNG BUSINESSMEN AND INTELLECTUALS UNITED ONLY BY THEIR DESIRE TO KICK OUT THE OLD GUARD. THEY DOMINATE THE ZANU-PF DELEGATION IN PARLIAMENT, AND ARE LED BY CHEGUTU MP CHARLES NDLOVU, BUT HAVE NO POSITIONS IN CABINET AND VERY FEW SENIOR POSITIONS IN THE PARTY. NDLOVU, WHO IS ALSO THE PARTY CHAIRMAN FOR MASHONALAND WEST, AND PADDY ZHANDA, PARTY CHAIRMAN FOR MASHONALAND EAST, WOULD APPEAR TO BE THEIR MOST SENIOR MEMBERS. MAKONI AND INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO, OFTEN TOUTED AS REFORMERS, ARE NOT "YOUNG TURKS," WETHERELL SAID, BUT MERELY COMPETENT TECHNOCRATS BROUGHT IN TO PUT A GOOD FACE ON ECONOMIC RECOVERY ATTEMPTS. MOYO IS NOT A MEMBER OF ZANU-PF, AND RECENTLY TOLD THE AMBASSADOR HE WOULD CONTINUE TO GUARD JEALOUSLY HIS POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE. ¶5. (C) MANY OF THE YOUNG TURKS ARE "JOHNNY-COME- LATELYS" TO THE PARTY WHO SAW AN OPPORTUNITY TO GET INTO GOVERNMENT BY TROUNCING UNPOPULAR PARTY HACKS IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, ACCORDING TO WETHERELL. SOME OF THESE NEW MEMBERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CO-OPTED BY THE OLD GUARD. NONETHELESS, THE YOUNG TURKS ARE THE PRIMARY SOURCE FOR CALLS TO REFORM THE PARTY'S TOP-DOWN STRUCTURE. ZHANDA, A PROMINENT BUSINESSMAN IN MASHONALAND EAST, TOLD US THAT HE WOULD RATHER TRY TO CHANGE THE PARTY FROM WITHIN THAN FROM WITHOUT. HE SAID HE HAS PERSONALLY TOLD MUGABE THAT CHANGE IS DESIRABLE AND INEVITABLE. THE OCTOBER 6 "ZIMBABWE MIRROR" REPORTED THAT SHORTLY AFTER THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, JOHN NKOMO SET UP A CABINET-LEVEL TASK FORCE TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05829 02 OF 03 131101Z RECOMMEND WAYS OF REVAMPING ZANU-PF. THE PRESIDENTIALLY-APPOINTED POLITBURO, HOWEVER, DID NOT FIND THE RECOMMENDATIONS, WHICH INCLUDED RENAMING THE PARTY AND REFORMING ITS CONSTITUTION, AT ALL ACCEPTABLE. ¶6. (C) INSTEAD OF TAKING CALLS FOR CHANGE ON BOARD, THE PARTY LEADERSHIP IS REDOUBLING ITS EFFORTS TO CLAMP DOWN ON DISSENT BY TRYING TO REIMPOSE THE DISCIPLINE THAT HAS SLIPPED AWAY IN THE LAST FEW YEARS. ONE OF MUGABE'S PRINCIPAL INSTRUMENTS FOR THIS PURPOSE IS NEW MINISTER OF STATE FOR INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY JONATHAN MOYO. ACCORDING TO WETHERELL, MOYO WELL MIRRORS MUGABE'S COMBATIVE STYLE AND CLOSELY REPRESENTS HIS THINKING ON MOST ISSUES. MOYO IS RESENTED IN THE PARTY BECAUSE OF HIS RAPID RISE AND BECAUSE HE SERVES AS THE PRESIDENT'S POINT MAN ON THE CRITICAL ISSUES OF THE DAY. MUGABE CIRCUMVENTS THE PARTY AND GOVERNMENT STRUCTURES BY HAVING MOYO ISSUE STATEMENTS THAT EFFECTIVELY COUNTERMAND DIRECTIVES FROM CABINET OFFICIALS, WETHERELL CONTINUED. MOYO'S PERSONAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE CLOSING DOWN OF THE INDEPENDENT CAPITAL RADIO STATION HIGHLIGHTS HIS GROWING POWER. THE CABINET, AND THE MINISTRIES IT REPRESENTS, IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY IRRELEVANT AS IT IS SIDELINED BY THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE. THIS IS BECOMING ANOTHER SOURCE OF DISCORD WITHIN ZANU-PF. ¶7. (C) MOYO HAS BEEN INFORMALLY CHARGED WITH REIMPOSING DISCIPLINE ON WAYWARD PARTY OFFICIALS IN THE PROVINCES AS WELL. THE OCTOBER 7 GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED "HERALD" PROMINENTLY REPORTED THAT THE ENTIRE ZANU-PF PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVE IN HARARE HAD BEEN SUSPENDED OVER INFIGHTING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 05829 02 OF 03 131101Z AMONG ITS MEMBERS. CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS THEN TOOK OVER THE OPERATION OF THE RULING PARTY IN HARARE. THE ZANU-PF EXECUTIVE LED BY SHADRECK BETA IN MANICALAND WAS SUSPENDED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MANICALAND HAS BEEN RACKED BY INTRA-PARTY SQUABBLING AND FEUDING FOR SEVERAL YEARS. THE PARTY CHAIRS IN MASVINGO, MASHONALAND WEST, AND MIDLANDS ARE ALSO REPORTED TO BE HEADING FOR THE CHOPPING BLOCK. MUGABE RECENTLY WARNED OF CLEANING OUT "DARK CHARACTERS" FROM THE PARTY WHO WERE MORE INTERESTED IN "MAKING WAR" ON THEIR FELLOW PARTY MEMBERS THAN "ENGAGING OUR POLITICAL RIVALS." THE SUSPENSIONS WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A PUNISHMENT FOR THOSE LOCAL PARTY OFFICIALS WHO ALLOWED THE MDC TO WIN SO MANY SEATS IN THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. ¶8. (C) THE OCTOBER 13 EDITION OF "THE HERALD" REPORTED THAT MUGABE IS THINKING OF TURNING OVER THE PRESIDENCY TO A SUCCESSOR, BUT NOT WHEN THE PARTY IS "IN DIFFICULTY," AND ONLY AFTER IT "WINS VICTORY" AND ENSURES THAT THE COUNTRY'S "INDEPENDENCE IS NOT IN THE HANDS OF STOOGES AND AGENTS OF IMPERIALISTS" - A CLEAR REFERENCE TO THE MDC. MUGABE'S COMMENTS IN A BBC INTERVIEW, AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT PROMINENT COVERAGE IN THE "HERALD," WERE LIKELY INTENDED TO ASSUAGE THE RESTIVE PARTY MASSES AHEAD OF THIS YEAR'S PARTY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7416 PAGE 01 HARARE 05829 03 OF 03 131101Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- 913C9F 131101Z /38 P 131101Z OCT 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7357 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 005829 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY IGNORING CLAMOR FOR CHANGE AT ITS OWN PERIL CONGRESS. THE REMARKS PROVIDE MUGABE WITH AN EXCUSE TO STAY AT THE PARTY'S HELM. AS WETHERELL CHARACTERIZED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05829 03 OF 03 131101Z IT, MUGABE IS TRYING TO PROJECT AN IMAGE OF AN EMBATTLED LEADER UNDER SIEGE FROM FOREIGN "IMPERIALISTS" (BRITAIN AND THE U.S.) AND "COUNTERREVOLUTIONARIES" WITHIN THE COUNTRY (MDC MEMBERS AND WHITES). CREATING ENEMIES OUTSIDE THE PARTY IS THE ONLY WAY HE BELIEVES HE CAN KEEP A LID ON THE GROWING DISCONTENT WITHIN THE PARTY AND THE COUNTRY. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS LOYAL OLD GUARD APPEAR TO BE POSITIONING THEMSELVES TO WARD OFF ANY CHALLENGES TO THEIR ENTRENCHED LEADERSHIP AT THIS YEAR'S PARTY CONGRESS. AT LAST YEAR'S CONGRESS, MUGABE AND COMPANY SUCCESSFULLY SWEPT UNDER THE RUG THE YOUNG TURKS' CALLS FOR REFORMING THE PARTY, AND THIS YEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ANY DIFFERENT. MUGABE HAS SHOWN NO WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE WITH ANYONE WHO ESPOUSES ALTERNATIVE VIEWPOINTS. HE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE POLITBURO, THE PARTY'S PRIMARY DECISION-MAKING BODY. UNLIKE MUGABE'S EARLY YEARS IN WHICH HE RULED MORE BY CONSENSUS, HE IS NOW MORE FREQUENTLY RULING BY DECREE ON CRITICAL ISSUES SUCH AS LAND REFORM, AND IN THE PROCESS SIDELINING PARLIAMENT, HIS CABINET, AND HIS OWN PARTY. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW LONG THE PARTY FAITHFUL ARE WILLING TO WAIT FOR CHANGE FROM THE TOP BEFORE THEY REVOLT AND KICK MUGABE OUT. THIS YEAR'S CONGRESS IS PROBABLY THE LAST OPPORTUNITY FOR ZANU-PF TO BEGIN MANAGING A SMOOTH CHANGEOVER BEFORE THE MAY 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THE PARTY NEEDS ALL THE TIME IT CAN GET TO CHANGE ITS IMAGE OF AN OUTDATED AND FOSSILIZED ORGANIZATION THAT NO LONGER HAS THE INTERESTS OF THE PEOPLE AT HEART. IF THE SUCCESSION ISSUE IS ONCE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05829 03 OF 03 131101Z AGAIN SWEPT UNDER THE RUG THIS YEAR, OR MUGABE REAFFIRMS HE WILL AGAIN STAND FOR PRESIDENT, EVEN THE PARTY FAITHFUL MAY DECIDE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STAYING IN GOVERNMENT BY JOINING THE OPPOSITION. IF HE DOES NOT ALLOW SOME CHANGE TO COME NOW, MUGABE RISKS A MORE SUDDEN, AND FOR HIM, UNDESIRABLE, CHANGE DOWN THE ROAD. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >