ZANU-PF MODERATE WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES IF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 005352 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS ADDIS ABABA FOR LUKASAVICH E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/05 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZANU-PF MODERATE WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES IF ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT PASSES CLASSIFIED BY DCM EARL IRVING, REASON 1.5 (B),(D) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05352 01 OF 02 221133Z SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ON SEPTEMBER 21, DCM AND POLOFF CALLED ON NEWLY APPOINTED DEPUTY MINISTER FOR EDUCATION, SPORTS, AND CULTURE AENEAS CHIGWEDERE. THE DEPUTY MINISTER, A RELIABLE EMBASSY INTERLOCUTOR IN HIS EARLIER POSITIONS, WAS CHARACTERISTICALLY FRANK IN HIS DISCUSSION OF ZANU-PF POLITICS AND HIS WARNING OF DIRE CONSEQUENCES FOR ZIMBABWE IF THE U.S. CONGRESS PASSES THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA). WHILE RECOGNIZING THE GOVERNMENT'S FAILINGS SINCE INDEPENDENCE, AND EVEN CALLING MUGABE A LIABILITY, CHIGWEDERE ARGUED THAT PASSAGE OF THE ZDA WOULD ONLY ACCELERATE CHAOS IN ZIMBABWE. ALTHOUGH WE SEE CHIGWEDERE AS A REALIST, ZIMBABWE HAS MUCH FARTHER TO FALL BEFORE HIS WORST CASE SCENARIO IS REALIZED. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) ON SEPTEMBER 21, DCM AND POLOFF CALLED ON NEWLY APPOINTED DEPUTY MINISTER FOR EDUCATION, SPORTS, AND CULTURE AENEAS CHIGWEDERE. CHIGWEDERE, A SECOND-TERM MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT, HAS BEEN A RELIABLE AND UNUSUALLY FRANK INTERLOCUTOR FOR THE EMBASSY. DCM CONGRATULATED CHIGWEDERE ON HIS APPOINTMENT, AND THE DEPUTY MINISTER POINTED OUT THAT THE MINISTRY HAS AN ALL NEW LEADERSHIP, INCLUDING A NEW MINISTER AND PERMANENT SECRETARY. CHIGWEDERE WENT ON TO SAY BLUNTLY THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE HAD APPOINTED NEW BLOOD INTO THE MINISTRY TO IMPLEMENT REFORM, SINCE THE OLD LEADERSHIP WOULD HAVE JUST SLOWED THINGS DOWN. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05352 01 OF 02 221133Z ZDA TO UNLEASH MILITARY RESPONSE? -------------- ¶3. (C) THE DEPUTY MINISTER QUICKLY TURNED TO THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA) CURRENTLY BEFORE THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. (NOTE: THE ZDA, AS WRITTEN, WOULD END ALL BILATERAL ASSISTANCE TO THE GOZ. HOWEVER, NEARLY ALL U.S. ASSISTANCE TO ZIMBABWE IS DISBURSED THROUGH NGOS AND WOULD BE EXEMPT. END NOTE.) DCM EXPLAINED THAT WE CANNOT PREDICT IF THE ZDA WILL PASS OR NOT. THE EXECUTIVE DOES NOT HAVE THE POWER TO TURN OFF THE BILL, BUT IF IT IS NOT ACTED UPON BEFORE CONGRESS IS DUE TO ADJOURN ON OR ABOUT OCTOBER 6, THE ZDA WILL DIE IN COMMITTEE. ¶4. (C) CHIGWEDERE PREDICTED THAT IF THE ZDA DOES PASS, IT WILL LEAD TO AN ARMY TAKEOVER. WHEN ASKED TO EXPLAIN HOW THIS MIGHT HAPPEN, CHIGWEDERE SAID THE ZDA WOULD ACCELERATE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC DECLINE AND LEAD TO UNREST THAT WOULD FORCE THE ARMY TO INTERVENE. ZIMBABWEAN URBANITES WOULD NOT "LIFT A FINGER" TO OPPOSE THE MILITARY BECAUSE OF THE MEMORY OF THE RECENT ELECTIONS AND THE MATABELELAND MASSACRES OF THE 1980S, AND ZIMBABWE WOULD BE STUCK WITH A MILITARY GOVERNMENT FOR THREE TO FIVE YEARS. THERE IS NO DOUBT OF THE GOVERNMENT'S FAILURES SINCE INDEPENDENCE, CHIGWEDERE OPINED, BUT THE MILITARY, POLICE, AND WAR VETERANS WOULD NEVER PERMIT A GOVERNMENT THAT WAS NOT SYMPATHETIC TO THEIR CAUSE. CHIGWEDERE ADDED THAT THE MILITARY WOULD NEVER SUPPORT TSVANGIRAI AS PRESIDENT SHOULD HE COME TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 05352 01 OF 02 221133Z POWER IN SOME KIND OF POPULAR REVOLUTION, BUT WAS MORE VAGUE WHEN ASKED IF THE MILITARY WOULD SUPPORT A LEGITIMATELY ELECTED TSVANGIRAI. NEW DEAL ON LAND? -------------- ¶5. (C) ON THE LAND ISSUE, CHIGWEDERE REPORTED THAT THE GOZ IS NEGOTIATING WITH THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS' UNION (CFU) THROUGH BACK CHANNELS TO OBTAIN SEVERAL HUNDRED FARMS AND TO PAY FOR THEM THROUGH A TRUST FUND. THE DEPUTY MINISTER SAID THE GOVERNMENT IS ALSO IN TOUCH WITH THE BRITISH ON THIS ISSUE, AND CLAIMED THEY SUPPORT THE FACE-SAVING IDEA OF A DONOR-FUNDED TRUST FUND TO BREAK THE LAND REFORM IMPASSE. ZIMBABWE AND THE U.K. HAVE BEEN SO AT ODDS OVER LAND REFORM THAT NEITHER IS PUBLICLY WILLING TO SWALLOW THEIR PRIDE. CHIGWEDERE OFFERED THAT IT IS NOT GOVERNMENT POLICY TO EXPEL ALL WHITE FARMERS FROM THEIR LAND--THE MOST PRODUCTIVE FARMS IN MASHONALAND WOULD BE EXEMPTED. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT IS GOVERNMENT POLICY, HE STATED BLUNTLY, TO HARASS FARMERS INTO SURRENDERING LARGE TRACTS OF LAND BORDERING COMMUNAL AREAS BY PERMITTING COMMUNAL FARMERS TO CUT DOWN TREES, STEAL WIRE, OR OCCUPY THE LAND OUTRIGHT. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5849 PAGE 01 HARARE 05352 02 OF 02 221133Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /006W -------------- 888844 221133Z /38 O 221133Z SEP 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7173 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 005352 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS ADDIS ABABA FOR LUKASAVICH E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/05 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZANU-PF MODERATE WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES IF ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT PASSES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05352 02 OF 02 221133Z MUGABE SEEN AS LIABILITY IN ZANU-PF -------------- ¶6. (C) CHIGWEDERE PROVIDED AN UNUSUALLY FRANK AND, IN OUR JUDGMENT, ACCURATE DESCRIPTION OF THE CURRENT STATE OF ZANU-PF POLITICS. HE FLAT-OUT STATED THAT MUGABE HAS BECOME A LIABILITY FOR THE PARTY, AND THE SOONER HE RETIRES, THE BETTER. IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR HIM TO DO SO, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IT IS NOT IN THE AFRICAN TRADITION FOR CHIEFS TO SIMPLY STEP ASIDE AND BECOME "ORDINARY MEN." ONLY GOD CAN RETIRE A CHIEF, CHIGWEDERE ADDED. HOWEVER, MUGABE HAS BEEN MISLED BY HIS CIRCLE OF SYCOPHANTS, WHO, AS IN ANOTHER AFRICAN TRADITION, ONLY WISH TO PLEASE THEIR CHIEF AND ARE LOATH TO SAY OR DO ANYTHING THAT WOULD UPSET HIM. THIS HAS LED TO AN IVORY TOWER SYNDROME IN WHICH MUGABE DOES NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND THE DEPTH OF DISCONTENT IN THE COUNTRY. WHEN ASKED IF THERE IS ANYONE WHO COULD SUCCEED MUGABE, THE DEPUTY MINISTER SAID ONLY FINANCE MINISTER MAKONI WOULD COME CLOSE TO FILLING HIS SHOES, AS MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE HAD BEEN REJECTED BY THE PEOPLE IN THE JUNE 24-25 ELECTION. MAKONI, HOWEVER, DOES NOT HAVE A BROAD BASE OF SUPPORT SINCE MOST OF THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN PERMITTED TO ADVANCE IN THE PARTY. HE DID NOT SEE ANY GOOD PROSPECTS FOR YOUNG BLOOD TO FILTER UP THE PARTY HIERARCHY SO LONG AS THE OLD GUARD REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: A COMMITTED AFRICANIST, CHIGWEDERE IS, IN ZANU-PF TERMS, SOMEONE WE WOULD DESCRIBE AS A MODERATE. UNLIKE MOST OF MUGABE'S CABINET, HE IS KNOWN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05352 02 OF 02 221133Z FOR TELLING IT LIKE IT IS, BUT HIS PREDICTION THAT A MILITARY TAKEOVER IS IN THE WINGS IF THE ZDA PASSES IS FARFETCHED. HIS ARGUMENT CONTAINED FEW SPECIFICS, BUT PROBABLY REFLECTS A GROWING REALIZATION IN ZANU-PF THAT THE GOZ IS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED, BOTH AT HOME AND ABROAD. WHAT LITTLE POPULAR SUPPORT ZANU-PF'S LEADERSHIP HAS LEFT IS STEADILY ERODING, INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE PARTY. CHIGWEDERE'S APPEAL TO HALT PASSAGE OF THE ZDA BASED ON AN IMMINENT MILITARY COUP TRUMPETS ZANU-PF'S GROWING DESPERATION. IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT PASSAGE OF THE ZDA WOULD HAVE ANY PRACTICAL EFFECT ON ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY, BUT IT COULD BECOME A CONVENIENT SCAPEGOAT FOR THE GOZ'S OWN GROSS MISMANAGEMENT OF THE ECONOMY. IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT MUGABE WOULD PREFER TO HAVE THE ACT BECOME LAW SO HE COULD ADD THE U.S. TO HIS LONG LIST OF EXCUSES FOR HIS OWN GOVERNMENT'S POOR PERFORMANCE. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >