ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 003910 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE ANNOUNCED HIS NEW 19 MEMBER (DOWN FROM 27 MEMBERS) CABINET CONSISTING OF 19 MEMBER ON JULY 15. A NUMBER OF THE OLD GUARD, INCLUDING WOMEN, WERE JETTISONED IN FAVOR OF TECHNOCRATS AND PARTY LOYALISTS. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE FACT THAT THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03910 01 OF 04 171528Z RUTHLESS FORMER MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANGAGWA GOT NO CABINET POST, ALTHOUGH HE MAY GET THE NOD TO BE SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT WHERE HE WILL TAKE A HARD LINE AGAINST THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC). THE TWO KEY ECONOMIC MINISTERS, NKOSANA MOYO AND SIMBA MAKONI, WILL BE ATTRACTIVE AMBASSADORS FOR ZIMBABWE TO THE WORLD, ALTHOUGH THEIR MARGIN FOR MANEUVER LIKELY WILL BE ABRIDGED BY PRESIDENT MUGABE. THE ONE FEMALE MINISTER, JOYCE MUJURU, HAS LITTLE INTEREST IN WOMEN'S ISSUES AND PROBABLY OWES HER POSITION TO THE POWER WIELDED BY HER HUSBAND, FORMER ARMY COMMANDER SOLOMON MUJURU. THE SOCIAL MINISTRIES ARE IN THE HANDS OF WEAK AND LESS THAN EFFECTIVE MINISTERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, WHOSE OFFICE'S PLACEMENT WITHIN THE PRESIDENCY GIVES IT A DISTINCTLY IDEOLOGICAL CAST. THE SECURITY MINISTRIES WENT TO TRUSTED MUGABE ALLIES. HOME AFFAIRS, THE LEAST SENSITIVE OF THESE, WENT TO A NDEBELE, JOHN NKOMO, WHO IS NOT VIEWED AS A CREDIBLE REPRESENTATIVE OF HIS ETHNIC GROUP IN MATABELELAND. SOME HERE ARGUE THAT THIS MIXED BAG IS A "PLACE HOLDER" CABINET, AWAITING THE RETURN OF THE OLD GUARD IN 2002. BE THAT AS IT MAY, WE DO NOT SEE IN ITS COMPOSITION A SUFFICIENT DEPARTURE FROM THE PROBLEMS THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT TO DATE. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE LOSERS -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03910 01 OF 04 171528Z ¶2. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE ANNOUNCED HIS NEW, TRIMMED DOWN (FROM 27),19-MEMBER, CABINET ON JULY 15. A NUMBER OF PORTFOLIOS HAVE BEEN REARRANGED OR JETTISONED ALTOGETHER. THE BIG LOSERS IN THIS GO-ROUND ARE THE OLD GUARD, THE WAR VETERANS AND WOMEN. ¶3. (C) WE COUNT 15 LOSERS: FORMER MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANAGAGWA; FORMER MINISTER WITHOUT PORTFOLIO EDDISON ZVOGBO; FORMER MINISTER OF INFORMATION, POSTS AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS, CHEN CHIMUTENGWENDE; FORMER PLANNING COMMISSIONER RICHARD HOVE; FORMER MINISTER OF STATE IN THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE CEPHAS MSIPA; FORMER MINISTER OF STATE TSUNGIRAI HUNGWE; FORMER MINISTER OF STATE OPPAH MUCHINGURI (WHO MAY BE IN LINE FOR A PROVINCIAL GOVERNOR'S JOB); FORMER MINISTER OF STATE SITHEMBISO NYONI; FORMER MINISTER WITHOUT PORTFOLIO WITNESS MANGWENDE; WAR VETERANS LEADER CHENJERAI HITLER HUNZVI (RUMOR HAS IT HE MAY BE OFFERED A DEPUTY MINISTER POSITION); FORMER MINISTER OF MINES ENVIRONMENT AND TOURISM SIMON K. MOYO; FORMER AFFIRMATIVE ACTION GROUP HEAD PHILIP CHIYANGWA (ALSO REPORTEDLY IN LINE FOR A DEPUTY MINISTER'S JOB); FORMER MINISTER OF LANDS AND AGRICULTURE KUMBIRAI KANGAI; FORMER MINISTER OF HOME CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7563 PAGE 01 HARARE 03910 02 OF 04 171528Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 COME-00 CTME-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSC-01 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /012W -------------- 6F0BF0 171529Z /38 O 171535Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6632 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY GABORONE AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY KIGALI AMEMBASSY KINSHASA AMEMBASSY LILONGWE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY LUANDA AMEMBASSY LUSAKA AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY MASERU AMEMBASSY MBABANE AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY PRETORIA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03910 02 OF 04 171528Z AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003910 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC AFFAIRS DUMISO DABENGWA; AND FORMER MINISTER OF PUBLIC SERVICE, LABOR AND SOCIAL WELFARE FLORENCE CHITAURO. ¶4. (C) OTHER ALSO-RANS WERE: FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE OLIVIA MUCHENA, WHO DID NOT WIN THE PARTY PRIMARY AND WHOSE CANDIDACY ZANU-PF IMPOSED ON HER MUTOKO CONSTITUENCY; FORMER MANICALAND GOVERNOR KENNETH MANYONDA, WHO BEAT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IN THE RACE FOR THE BUHERA NORTH CONSTITUENCY; AND FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF MINES ENVIRONMENT AND TOURISM EDWARD CHINDORI-CHININGA. ¶5. (C) THE MOST SURPRISING MEMBER OF THE LIST IS THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03910 02 OF 04 171528Z RUTHLESS MNANGAGWA, WHO SAID HE DID NOT WANT ANY CONSOLATION APPOINTMENT AFTER HAVING LOST HIS SEAT IN PARLIAMENT TO A RELATIVELY UNKNOWN CANDIDATE FROM THE OPPOSITION MDC, BLESSING CHEBUNDO. SOME HERE SPECULATE THE FORMER JUSTICE MINISTER MAY BE IN LINE TO BE THE NEXT SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT, FOR WHICH HE IS QUALIFIED AS THE CONSTITUTION SPECIFIES THAT THE SPEAKER MUST BE OR HAVE BEEN A MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT. IF THAT IS THE CASE, THEN IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH COOPERATION BETWEEN THE RULING ZANU-PF AND THE MDC IN PARLIAMENT, INDEED, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE TOTAL CONFRONTATION. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT MNANGAGWA INTENDS TO WAIT IN THE WINGS FOR THE BIG PRIZE -- THE PRESIDENCY IN 2002. -------------- THE ECONOMIC MINISTRIES -------------- ¶6. (C) FOR PURPOSES OF ANALYSIS WE COULD DIVIDE THE CABINET PORTFOLIO INTO THREE AREAS: ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND SECURITY. ON THE ECONOMIC SIDE WE HAVE A MIXED BAG. FAILED BANKER (AND SON-IN-LAW OF THE LATE VICE PRESIDENT JOSHUA NKOMO),FRANCIS NHEMA, HEADS UP THE ENVIRONMENT AND TOURISM PORTFOLIO, WHICH MANY HERE EXPECTED WOULD GO TO THE FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF MINES ENVIRONMENT AND TOURISM EDWARD CHINDORI-CHININGA. NHEMA TAKES THE HELM OF A MINISTRY THAT OFFERS GREAT POSSIBILITY FOR CORRUPTION. AT THE SAME TIME, HE FACES AT LEAST ONE CHARGE OF FRAUD PENDING AGAINST HIM IN THE COURTS. RESPECTED BUSINESSMAN AND FORMER SADC SECRETARY GENERAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03910 02 OF 04 171528Z SIMBA MAKONI IS IN CHARGE OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, WHICH APPARENTLY SUBSUMED THE OLD PLANNING COMMISSION. MAKONI IS A TECHNOCRAT WHO AS A DIRECTOR OF ZIMPAPERS, THE PUBLISHER OF THE GOVERNMENT INFLUENCED "THE HERALD," TURNED IT INTO A PROFITABLE CONCERN, BUT WAS SACKED WHEN HE ATTEMPTED TO INFLUENCE EDITORIAL POLICY. NEVERTHELESS, HE IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH AUTONOMY TO CRAFT ECONOMIC POLICY, AS THE PRESIDENT WILL TIE HIS HANDS IN THIS CONNECTION. SIMILARLY, NKOSANA MOYO AS MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE (A SURPRISING APPOINTMENT GIVEN THAT MOYO HAS ALWAYS TAKEN PAINS TO CAST HIMSELF AS A POLITICAL INDEPENDENT) IS ONE OF THE BEST ZIMBABWE HAS TO OFFER IN TERMS OF TECHNICAL CAPACITY, GRASP OF THE ISSUES AND NETWORK OF CONTACTS. WE PREDICT HE TOO WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A MARGIN FOR MANEUVER. LANDS, AGRICULTURE AND RESETTLEMENT MINISTER JOSEPH MADE IS SEEN AS A ZANU-PF HARD-LINER WHO WILL TAKE AN UNCOMPROMISING STANCE ON LAND REDISTRIBUTION. HE HAS BEEN THE ONE DEVISING THE JUSTIFICATIONS FOR THE COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS. THE "PROMOTION" OF FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER OF STATE SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI TO HEAD UP THE MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY, FOR WHICH HE HAS NO DISCERNIBLE QUALIFICATIONS, IS A CURIOUS ONE. WE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7565 PAGE 01 HARARE 03910 03 OF 04 171529Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 COME-00 CTME-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSC-01 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- 6F0C02 171529Z /38 O 171535Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6633 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY GABORONE AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY KIGALI AMEMBASSY KINSHASA AMEMBASSY LILONGWE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY LUANDA AMEMBASSY LUSAKA AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY MASERU AMEMBASSY MBABANE AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY PRETORIA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03910 03 OF 04 171529Z AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003910 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC CAN ONLY SPECULATE THAT HE HAS BEEN PUT IN CHARGE OF THE PORTFOLIO TO LOOT THE COUNTRY'S MINERAL WEALTH AND SKIM OFF COMMISSIONS FROM OIL IMPORT DEALS. -------------- THE SOCIAL MINISTRIES -------------- ¶7. (C) THE SOCIAL SECTOR HAS A COLLECTION OF WEAK MINISTERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JONATHAN MOYO, ZANU-PF'S SPLENETIC SPIN DOCTOR DURING THE FAILED CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW PROCESS AND RECENT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, WHO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03910 03 OF 04 171529Z HAS BEEN NAMED MINSTER OF STATE FOR INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY. THE MINISTRY NORMALLY SHOULD HAVE TECHNICAL REGULATORY OVERSIGHT OF COMMUNICATIONS IN THE COUNTRY, BUT HAVING BEEN MOVED INTO THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE GIVES THE PORTFOLIO AN IDEOLOGICAL CAST. OUR FEAR IS THAT NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO SILENCE HIM. HE MAY SHOOT DOWN ANY GOOD ECONOMIC IDEAS THAT MINISTERS MAKONI AND MOYO MAY HAVE AND COULD POISON RELATIONS WITH THE DONOR COMMUNITY. TIMOTHY "KILLJOY" STAMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE DECLINING MINISTRY OF HEALTH AND CHILD WELFARE. IGNATIUS CHOMBO AS HEAD OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING IS ALSO PERCEIVED AS A NONENTITY. HERBERT MURERWA AS MINISTER OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND TECHNOLOGY PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE IN HIS PATTERN OF A DECENT BUT INEFFECTIVE CABINET MEMBER; HOWEVER A MARGINALLY MORE EFFECTIVE MINISTER IN THIS LESS POLITICAL PORTFOLIO. BORDER GEZI, AN OPPORTUNISTIC LIGHTWEIGHT WHO LED FARM INVASIONS, THE POLITICAL REEDUCATION EXERCISE, AND VOTER INTIMIDATION AS GOVERNOR OF MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCE, WAS REWARDED WITH THE POST OF MINISTER OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION, A MINISTRY WITHOUT TEETH AND NOT INVOLVED IN POLICY MAKING. THIS HAS BEEN THE MINISTRY IN WHICH CIVIL SERVANTS ESSENTIALLY DID ZANU-PF PARTY WORK AND COULD BE CALLED TO ACCOUNT BY THE MDC FOR HOW IT SPENT ITS BUDGET ALLOTMENT. THE SOLE WOMAN APPOINTED TO THE CABINET IS JOYCE MUJURU, RETAINING HER POST AS MINISTER OF RURAL RESOURCES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT. THE APPOINTMENT APPEARS TO BE A NOD TO HER POWERFUL HUSBAND, FORMER ARMY COMMANDER SOLOMON MUJURU, CONSIDERED HERE AS A KINGMAKER. MUJURU HAS SHOWN NO INTEREST IN PROMOTING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03910 03 OF 04 171529Z WOMEN'S ISSUES AND IS A GREAT DISAPPOINTMENT TO WOMEN'S RIGHTS ACTIVISTS. FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE, WHO IS ARROGANT BUT NO SHINING STAR, ALSO RETAINED HIS POSITION. -------------- THE SECURITY MINISTRIES -------------- ¶8. (C) THE SECURITY MINISTRIES CONTINUE IN THE HANDS OF TRUSTED LOYALISTS. NICHOLAS GOCHE LEAVES AS DEPUTY MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND RETURNS TO HIS ROOTS IN INTELLIGENCE AS SPYMASTER MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY. GOCHE, WITH WHOM WE HAVE HAD GOOD RELATIONS, PLAYED COY ABOUT HIS APPOINTMENT WITH AMBASSADOR MCDONALD WHEN THEY MET ON THE MARGINS OF THE FRENCH NATIONAL DAY RECEPTION JULY 14, AND MAY PROVE A MORE ACCESSIBLE MINISTER. FORMER ATTORNEY GENERAL PATRICK CHINAMASA HEADS THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS, WHICH WILL BE USED AS A BLUNT INSTRUMENT FOR MUGABE TO HAVE HIS WAY WITH THE LAW. CHINAMASA IS ARGUABLY THE CABINET MEMBER WHO IS CLOSEST TO THE PRESIDENT AND IS GENERALLY PERCEIVED AS WILLING TO DO WHATEVER THE PRESIDENT ASKS. MOVEN MAHACHI RETAINS THE DEFENSE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7567 PAGE 01 HARARE 03910 04 OF 04 171529Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 COME-00 CTME-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSC-01 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- 6F0C09 171529Z /38 O 171535Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6634 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY GABORONE AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY KIGALI AMEMBASSY KINSHASA AMEMBASSY LILONGWE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY LUANDA AMEMBASSY LUSAKA AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY MASERU AMEMBASSY MBABANE AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY PRETORIA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03910 04 OF 04 171529Z AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003910 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI ZANU PF SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC PORTFOLIO, PERHAPS BECAUSE MUGABE WAS UNDER NO DOMESTIC PRESSURE TO RELIEVE HIM OF IT. MAHACHI IS NOT SEEN AS HAVING ANY POLICY INPUT ON MILITARY MATTERS AS THAT IS THE PREROGATIVE OF THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF. MOREOVER, MUGABE MAY NEITHER WISH TO ALIENATE A MINISTER WHO PARTICIPATES IN THE ECONOMIC DEALS ARISING FROM THE MILITARY INTERVENTION IN THE CONGO, NOR SEND A SHUDDER THROUGH THE MILITARY, WHO HAVE LOYALLY DONE HIS BIDDING, BY REPLACING THE TOP MAN. A NDEBELE, JOHN NKOMO, SUCCEEDS FELLOW NDEBELE DUMISO DABENGWA IN THE HOME AFFAIRS MINISTRY. NKOMO IS VIEWED AS COMPETENT AND DECENT, AND MUGABE MAY HAVE THOUGHT IT A GOOD IDEA TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03910 04 OF 04 171529Z APPOINT AN ETHNIC NDEBELE TO THE JOB IN LIGHT OF CONTINUING SENSITIVITIES TO THE ATROCITIES COMMITTED IN MATABELELAND BY THE NORTH KOREAN TRAINED, ETHNIC SHONA FIFTH BRIGADE IN THE EARLY 1980'S. NKOMO, HOWEVER, IS NOT VIEWED AS A CREDIBLE NDEBELE REPRESENTATIVE IN MATABELELAND. HE IS ALSO IN THE LEAST SENSITIVE AND MOST UNDER-FUNDED OF THE SECURITY MINISTRIES. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) THE COMMENT WE HAVE HEARD MOST OFTEN ABOUT THE NEW CABINET IS THAT IT IS A MIXED BAG. IT LOOKS CREDIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE PERSONS OF SIMBA MAKONI AND NKOSANA MOYO WHO WILL BE ATTRACTIVE AMBASSADORS FROM ZIMBABWE TO THE WORLD. THERE IS TALENT IN KEY AREAS AND PATRONAGE IN MANY OTHERS. NEVERTHELESS, THEY ARE ALL TAKING ORDERS FROM PRESIDENT MUGABE, MEANING THAT WE WILL SEE THE SAME RUINOUS POLICIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS. SOME OF OUR CONTACTS FEAR THAT THE NEW CABINET IS COMPOSED OF "PLACE HOLDERS," PEOPLE WHO WILL KEEP THE SEATS WARM UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF 2002 AND THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF SOME OF THE OLD GUARD. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE DO NOT SEE A SUFFICIENT DEPARTURE IN THE NEW LINE-UP FROM THE PROBLEMS THAT HAVE CHARACTERIZED THE GOVERNMENT TO DATE. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03910 04 OF 04 171529Z CONFIDENTIAL >