BEN ALI SUCCESSION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TUNIS 002120

DEPARTMENT F0R NEA A/S INDYK AND PDAS J0NES
ALSO F0R NEA/ENA
PARIS F0R BLEAF
LONDON F0R BSUTPHIN

E.0. 12958: DECL:5/20/09
TAGS: PGOV PREL TS
SUBJECT: BEN ALI SUCCESSION

REF: STATE 68334

(U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSAD0R R0BIN L. RAPHEL BASED 0N 1.5 (B)
AND (D).

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SUMMARY AND C0MMENT
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1. (S) IMMEDIATE SUCCESSI0N ISSUES ARE LESS 0F A C0NCERN IN
TUNISIA THAN S0ME 0THER C0UNTRIES IN THE REGI0N. GIVEN HIS
R0BUST HEALTH, THE 62-YEAR-0LD BEN ALI IS EXPECTED ALC (##)F0URTH
TERM OF OFFICE UNTIL WELL INT0 HIS THIRD. IN THE CASE
0F THE DEATH 0R INCAPACITATI0N 0F BEN ALI, THE C0NSTITUTI0N
CALLS F0R THE PRESIDENT 0F THE CHAMBER 0F DEPUTIES T0 BE
APP0INTED AS A INTERIM PRESIDENT WITH LIMITED P0WERS UNTIL NEW
ELECTI0NS CAN BE SCHEDULED. THIS W0ULD PR0BABLY BE F0LL0WED
SCRUPUL0USLY, GIVEN RULING PARTY DISCIPLINE AND L0YALTY AND
TUNISIA'S LARGELY AP0LITICAL. H0M0GENE0US P0PULATI0N. WHILE
RULING PA"QM[BW9VQB THAT THE LACKLUSTER
OPPOSITION FIGURES WOULD POSE ANY SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO THE
POWERFUL (AND POPULAR) RCD PARTY MACHINE. MOREOVER, THE ONCE
STRONG ISLAMIC MOVEMENT REMAINS TOO WEAK TO THREATEN AN
RCD-ANNOINTED SUCCESSOR TO BEN ALI IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE
MILITARY DOES NOT PLAY AN INDEPENDENT POLITICAL ROLE. IN
SHORT, WE DO NOT SEE SUCCESSION POSING ANY SERIOUS THREAT TO
TUNISIA'S INTERNAL STABILITY OR ITS FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITH THE
UNITED STATES. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

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BEN ALI: IN VIGOROUS HEALTH,
HE CAN SERVE OUT A NEW FIVE-YEAR TERM -- AND BEYOND?
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REPORTEDLY DYING, PREDECESSOR. ALL EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT BEN
ALI, UP FOR RE-ELECTION ON OCTOBER 24, WILL BE ABLE TO SERVE
OUT HIS THIRD FIVE-YEAR TERM AS PRESIDENT. (BEN ALI HAS BEEN
IN OFFICE SINCE NOVEMBER 1987, BUT IN THE PERIOD BEFORE 1989
ELECTIONS HE WAS FINISHING OUT BOURGUIBA'S FINAL TERM.)


3. (S) WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY CURRENT HEALTH CONSTRAINTS
WHICH WOULD PREVENT HIM FROM SERVING WELL BEYOND THAT TERM'S
EXPIRATION IN 2004, ALTHOUGH A FOURTH TERM WOULD REQUIRE A
CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE. THIS WOULD NOT LIKELY BE AN OBSTACLE,
AS BEN ALI'S RULING RCD PARTY WILL CONTROL ENOUGH SEATS IN THE
CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES AFTER THE OCTOBER 1999 ELECTIONS TO AMEND
THE CONSTITUTION TO ALLOW BEN ALI TO RUN AGAIN, OR HE COULD USE
A NEW CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION ALLOWING PLEBISCITES FOR ISSUES
OF NATIONAL IMPORTANCE TO ARRANGE FOR "POPULAR DEMAND." BUT
WELL-INFORMED TUNISIANS ARE DIVIDED OVER WHETHER, IN FACT, BEN
ALI WOULD WANT A FOURTH TERM IN OFFICE, AND HE HIMSELF MAY NOT
BE SURE. GIVEN HIS CAUTIOUS TEMPERAMENT AND DESIRE TO WEIGH
ALL MAJOR DECISIONS CAREFULLY, TOGETHER WITH HIS CONCERN NOT TO
BECOME A "LAME DUCK" PREMATURELY, THE ODDS ARE THAT BEN ALI
WILL NOT REVEAL HIS HAND UNTIL WELL INTO HIS NEXT TERM OF
OFFICE.

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LEGAL MECHANISMS FOR SUCCESSION IN PLACE:
WEAK INTERIM PRESIDENT TO OVERSEE ELECTIONS
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4. (U) IF THE TUNISIAN PRESIDENT DIES IN OFFICE OR IS SUBJECT
TO TOTAL INCAPACITATION ("EMPECHEMENT ABSOLU"),ARTICLE 57 OF
THE TUNISIAN CONSTITUTION STIPULATES THAT THE PRESIDENT OF THE
CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES WILL ASSUME THE FUNCTIONS OF PRESIDENT "PAR
INTERIM" FOR A PERIOD WHICH MAY VARY BETWEEN 45 AND 60 DAYS. A
POSITION WEAK BY DESIGN, THE INTERIM PRESIDENT IS RESTRICTED
FROM PERFORMING SOME FUNCTIONS, SUCH AS DISSOLVING PARLIAMENT,
CALLING FOR REFERENDUMS, OR DISMISSING THE GOVERNMENT. THE
INTERIM PRESIDENT IS TO OVERSEE ELECTIONS WHICH WILL ELECT THE
NEW PRESIDENT FOR A FULL FIVE-YEAR MANDATE. EVEN IF THE
INTERIM PRESIDENT RESIGNS, HE IS NOT PERMITTED TO RUN IN THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.


5. (C) BEFORE THIS SUCCESSION ARRANGEMENT WAS INSTITUTED VIA
A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT ON JULY 25, 1988, THE TUNISIAN
CONSTITUTION STIPULATED THAT ALL POWERS AND DUTIES WOULD
DEVOLVE TO THE PRIME MINISTER IN THE CASE OF DEATH OF
INCAPACITATION OF THE PRESIDENT, AND THAT THE PRIME MINISTER
WOULD SERVE AS PRESIDENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRESIDENTIAL
TERM. THIS CLAUSE WAS INVOKED ON NOVEMBER 7, 1987, WHEN
THEN-PRIME MINISTER BEN ALI NUDGED ASIDE BOURGUIBA, WHO WAS
DECLARED BY DOCTORS AS MENTALLY UNFIT TO CONTINUE IN OFFICE, IN
THE BLOODLESS COUP NOW KNOWN IN ARABIC AS "THE BLESSED
CHANGE."


6. (S) IN THE EVENT OF THE DEATH OR INCAPACITATION OF THE
PRESIDENT, WE BELIEVE THAT THE CONSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS
EXPLAINED ABOVE WOULD BE SCRUPULOUSLY FOLLOWED, AS WOULD
PROVISIONS FOR ELECTIONS SHOULD BEN ALI STEP DOWN IN 2004, AS
THE CONSTITUTION REQUIRES. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, THERE WILL BE
ELECTIONS, AND THE RCD-ANNOINTED CANDIDATE WILL LIKELY WIN
(EVEN IF THE ENTIRE CAMPAIGN PERIOD AND ELECTIONS PASSED OUR
MOST RIGOROUS TEST OF "FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS"): THE RULING
RCD PARTY AND MILITARY/POLICE ARE VERY WELL DISCIPLINED AND
DEV0TED T0 THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND ARE LIKELY T0 F0CUS 0N A
SINGLE CANDIDATE RATHER THAN SPLINTERING INT0 RIVAL GR0UPS.
THE PARTY REMAINS P0PULAR, AS M0ST TUNISIANS CREDIT IT F0R
BRINGING PR0SPERITY AND STABILTY. (A SHARP RISE IN
UNEMPL0YMENT 0R SERI0US EC0N0MIC RECESSI0N C0ULD CHANGE THE
F0RMULA, BUT S0 FAR EC0N0MIC GR0WTH REMAINS S0LID.)


7. (S) M0RE0VER, THE GENERALLY AP0LITICAL TUNISIAN P0PULATI0N
IS H0M0GENE0US AND FREE 0F ETHNIC/RELIGI0US/TRIBAL DIFFERENCES
WHICH IN S0ME C0UNTRIES HAS LED T0 M0RE LIVELY P0LITICS 0R
D0MESTIC INSTABILITY. THE 0NCE STR0NG ISLAMIC 0PP0SITI0N IS
WEAK, ITS LEADERS EXILED 0R IN PRIS0N, AND IN N0 P0SITI0N T0
TAKE ADVANTAGE 0F A SUCCESSI0N. THE LEGAL 0PP0SITI0N PARTIES
WILL INCREASE THEIR PRESENCE IN THE CHAMBER 0F DEPUTIES AFTER
0CT0BER ELECTI0NS BECAUSE 0F A C0NSTITUTI0N CHANGE INITIATED BY
BEN ALI T0 RESERVE 20 PERCENT 0F CHAMBER SEATS F0R 0PP0SITI0N
PARTIES. H0WEVER, THEY ARE IN N0 P0SITI0N T0 WIN THE
PRESIDENCY IN ELECTI0NS AGAINST THE WELL 0RGANIZED AND P0PULAR
RCD -- N0R D0 THEY HAVE THE ABILITY T0 SEIZE THE REINS 0F
G0VERNMENT BY F0RCE. IN SH0RT, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT A SUDDENLY
VACATED PRESIDENCY W0ULD LEAD T0 CHA0S, BECAUSE THERE IS N0
APPARENT BASIS F0R`KL[_QUAN 0BVI0US SUCCESS0R BY NAME. IN FACT,
FOR RCD (##)G0T 0FFICIALS T0 ACCUMULATE T00 MUCH P0WER IN THEIR
HANDS IS N0T A CAREER-ENHANCING M0VE:MANY PE0PLE THINK THAT THE
RECENT REM0VAL 0F FINANCE MINISTER JERI AND ENVIR0NMENT MINISTER
STEMMED AT LEAST IN PART FR0M THEIR INDEPENDENT P0WER BASES (AS
MLIKA WELL AS PLAUSIBLE ALLEGATI0NS 0F C0RRUPTI0N). INDEED, AM0NG
THE CURRENT CR0P 0F G0T MINISTERS, M0ST ARE TECHN0CRATS WH0
R0SE THR0UGH THE BUREAUCRACY AND N0T P0LITICIANS WITH P0WER AND
P0PULARITY IN THEIR 0WN RIGHT. JUSTICE MINISTER KALLEL, 0NCE
AN EXTREMELY CL0SE C0NFIDANT T0 BEN ALI, WAS RUM0RED T0 HAVE
BEC0ME S0 STR0NG IN HIS PREVI0US P0SITI0N AS AN ADVIS0R T0 THE
PRESIDENT THAT HE WAS "SIDELINED" T0 A MINISTRY WHERE HIS
RESP0NSIBILITIES WERE M0RE NARR0WLY DRAWN. THE PRIME MINISTER
IS A MUCH WEAKER P0SITI0N THAN IT WAS WHEN BEN ALI WAS IN THAT
0FFICE.


9. (C) TODAY, PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORS MOHAMED JEGHAM AND
ABDELWAHEB ABDALLAH ARE PERHAPS THE MOST POWERFUL IN BEN ALI'S
IMMEDIATE CIRCLE, BUT THEY, TOO, DERIVE THEIR POWER FROM BEN
ALI AND DO NOT ENJOY THE SORT OF INDEPENDENT POWER BASE WHICH
BEN ALI HAD BEFORE THE NOVEMBER 7, 1987 COUP. OF THE
MINISTERS, MINISTER OF DEFENSE HABIB BEN YAHIA HAS SUCCEEDED IN
PLACING PROTEGES AS BOTH MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND HEAD
OF THE RCD, BUT HE IS A CAREER DIPLOMAT, NOT A POLITICIAN.
MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENT FAIZA KEFI IS ONE OF THE MOST
AMBITIOUS, SAVVY POLITICIANS WE KNOW, BUT TUNISIA, FOR ALL ITS
PROGRESSIVE POLICIES, IS NOT READY FOR A WOMAN PRESIDENT.
WHILE MRS. BEN ALI HAS MANAGED TO INSERT CLOSE FAMILY MEMBERS
INTO INFLUENTIAL POSITIONS. THE RESULTING CORRUPTION, TOLERATED
WITHIN CERTAIN LIMITS BY BEN ALI, HAS LED TO REVULSION AMONG
MANY TUNISIANS. THEREFORE, WE STRONGLY DOUBT ANY OF HER
RELATIVES WOULD GET THE BLESSING OF THE RCD LEADERSHIP TO
SUCCEED BEN ALI.

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NO SERIOUS THREAT TO U.S. INTERESTS
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10. (C) IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT THERE IS NO OBVIOUS HEIR
APPARENT WHO WOULD SERVE AS AN RCD CANDIDATE IN SUCCESSION
ELECTIONS, WE DO NOT ENVISION A SERIOUS THREAT TO U.S.
INTERESTS IN TUNISIA'S EVENTUAL TRANSITION FROM THE BEN ALI
ERA. TUNISIANS ARE GENERALLY PLEASED WITH THE DIRECTION OF
THEIR COUNTRY, AND ANY FORSEEABLE SUCCESSOR TO BEN ALI CAN
EXPECT TO FACE STRONG RESISTANCE FROM BOTH ELITES AND THE
GENERAL PUBLIC TO ANY ATTEMPT TO DEVIATE FROM TUNISIA'S
MODERATE POLICIES AND ITS FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED
STATES AND EUROPE. WHAT WE HOPE TO SEE BY THE TIME OF ANY
SUCCESSION IS A BROADER AND DEEPER DEMOCRATIC PROCESS. WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO ENCOURAGE THE GOT
TO EXPAND PLURALISM AND FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION AND PRESS, IN
ORDER TO GIVE THE GENERALLY MODERATE AND PRO-WESTERN TUNISIAN
CITIZENS THE OPORTUNITY TO PARTICIPATE IN, AND REINFORCE, A
SMOOTH SUCCESSION OF POWER THAT REFLECTS DEMOCRATIC NORMS.

RAPHEL