Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
99TELAVIV12144
1999-08-27 06:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

HAMAS DEBATES FUTURE

Tags:  KISL PTER KPAL KWBG PREL PHUM GZ IS 
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P 270642Z AUG 99
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2566
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 012144 

DEPT FOR NEA, NEA/IAI, AND SMEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/09
TAGS: KISL PTER KPAL KWBG PREL PHUM GZ IS
SUBJECT: HAMAS DEBATES FUTURE

REF: TEL AVIV 10899 AND PREVIOUS


SUMMARY:
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 012144

DEPT FOR NEA, NEA/IAI, AND SMEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/09
TAGS: KISL PTER KPAL KWBG PREL PHUM GZ IS
SUBJECT: HAMAS DEBATES FUTURE

REF: TEL AVIV 10899 AND PREVIOUS


SUMMARY:
--------------


1. (C) OUR CONTACTS IN GAZA HAVE PRESENTED DIFFERING
VIEWS OVER NEXT STEPS BEING CONTEMPLATED BY HAMAS. A
SENIOR FATAH LEADER AND MEMBER OF THE FATAH CENTRAL
COMMITTEE, HANI AL-HASSAN, TOLD US RECENTLY THAT HAMAS
WAS PLANNING AN "ELECTION" FOR MEMBERS OF ITS POLITBURO
AND CONSULTATIVE ASSEMBLY. AL-HASSAN SAID HE WAS
SEEKING TO INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION, WHICH,
HE SAID, WOULD PIT OUTSIDERS AGAINST INSIDERS. AL-
HASSAN SAID HE FEARD THAT HAMAS COULD SPLIT FOLLOWING
THE ELECTION, LEAVING THE MORE RADICAL ELEMENT OF HAMAS
IN UNCERTAIN HANDS. BY CONTRAST, ISLAMIST WEEKLY "AL-
RISALLAH" EDITOR GHAZI HAMAD, TOLD US THAT WHILE HAMAS
IS INDEED DEBATING ITS FUTURE, NO ELECTION WILL BE
HELD IN THE NEAR TERM. HAMAD SAID HAMAS FACED INTERNAL
DIFFICULTIES AND SAID THAT YASIN WAS FACING A "HEAVY
BURDEN" TO ATTEMPTING TO MANTAIN UNITY AND INFLUENCE
HIS ORGANIZATION'S FUTURE COURSE. BOTH HAMAD AND AL-
HASSAN SAID THEY DID NOT FORESEE "MILITARY OPERATIONS"
IN THE NEAR TERM, ALTHOUGH THEY OFFERED DIFFERENT
REASONS FOR THEIR VIEWS. END SUMMARY.

AL-HASSAN: GET READY FOR SEPTEMBER 19
--------------


2. (C) EMBASSY CONTACTS IN GAZA HAVE PROVIDED DIFFERING
VIEWS OF HAMAS' NEAR-TERM STRATEGY. HANI AL-HASSAN, A
MEMBER OF THE FATAH CENTRAL COMMITTEE WHO HAS MAINTAINED
CLOSE LINKS TO PALESTINIAN ISLAMIST MOVEMENTS THROUGH
HIS FORMER MEMBERSHIP IN THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD,
EXPRESSED CONCERN TO US THAT HAMAS FACED A SPLIT IN
THEIR ORGANIZATION. AL-HASSAN SAID HAMAS WAS PLANNING
TO HOLD AN ELECTION ON SEPTEMBER 19 FOR ITS POLITBURO
AND MAJLIS SHURA (CONSULATIVE ASSEMBLY). (COMMENT: OTHER
AGENCY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SEPTEMBER 19TH DATE HAS
ALREADY SLIPPED, PERHAPS AS FAR BACK AS DECEMBER. DELAY
UNTIL DECEMBER MAY PLACE THE ELECTIONS NEAR
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 2ND PHASE OF WYE, POSSIBLY NOT A
PROPITIOUS TIME FOR AN ELECTION FROM HAMAS' POINT OF
VIEW IF THINGS ARE GOING WELL IN THE PEACE PROCESS.
PLACE OF THE ELECTION IS NOT KNOWN. END COMMENT.) THE
ELECTION WOULD PIT KHALID MISH'AL AGAINST ABU MARZOUK
FOR THE HEAD OF THE POLITBURO. AL-HASSAN SAID HE WAS
WORKING UNDER ARAFAT'S ORDERS TO INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME
OF THE ELECTION AND TO PREVENT A SPLIT IN HAMAS THAT
COULD LEAVE THE RADICALS WITHOUT THE MORE "MODERATE"
POLITICAL CONTROL OF SHEIKH YASIN. "IRAN WILL GAN THE
UPPER HAND," AL-HASSAN SAID IF THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE
ORGANIZATION. (COMMENT: AL-HASSAN'S COMMENTS RUN
COUNTER TO THE POLICY TH PA HAS BEEN TELLING US THEY
ARE FOLLOWING TOWARD HAMAS, I.E., O SPLIT OFF THE

MODERATES, ISOLATE THE RADICALS AND MOVE AGAINST THEM.
END COMMENT.)

MISH'AL LEADS THE CHARGE AGAINST YASIN
--------------


3. (C) ACCORDING TO AL-HASSAN, THE KEY DYNAMIC INSIDE
HAMAS WAS AN EFFORT BY KHALID MISH'AL TO SEIZE CONTROL
OF THE PARTY FROM YASIN. AT THE ELECTION, YASIN WILL
TRY TO PUSH FORWARD A CHANGE TO HAMAS' OPERATING
PROCEDURES THAT WOULD REQUIRE EXPLICIT BLESSINGS OF THE
INSIDE LEADERSHIP BEFORE CONDUCTING "OPERATIONS."
(COMMENT: WE DO NOT SEE THE LOGIC OF SUCH A MOVE. WHILE
ON ITS FACE, IT MIGHT GIVE YASIN GREATER SPECIFIC
AUTHORITY TO CONTROL "OPERATIONS," THERE IS A CLEAR
DOWNSIDE. IF KNOWN, IT WOULD EXPLICITLY TIE THE INSIDE
LEADERSHIP TO ANY FUTURE TERRORIST OPERATION AND LEAD TO
AN EVEN HEAVIER CRACKDOWN AGAINST HAMAS OPERATIVES IN
AREAS UNDER PA CONTROL.) AL-HASSAN SAID THAT THE
MISH'AL FACTION CURRENTLY ENJOYS A TWO-PERSON ADVANTAGE
IN THE POLITBURO. YASIN WAS CONTEMPLAING SENDING
MAHMOUD ZAHHAR AND POSSIBLY ISMAIL ABU SHANAB TO
INFLUENCE HAMAS MEMBERS IN THE GULF AND ELSEWHERE TO
SUPPORT YASIN IN THE ELECTION. (COMMENT: PERHAPS THE
USG FACES A TERMINOLOGICAL PROBLEM IN REFERRING TO
"INSIDERS" AND "OUTSIDERS." WE TEND TO THINK OF
OUTSIDERS AS BEING MORE HARDLINE AND CLOSER TO THE
MISH'AL POSITION. IN FACT, IF WHAT AL-HASSAN SAYS IS
TRUE, YASIN BELIEVES HE CAN INFLUENCE THE OSTENSIBLY
"OUTSIDER" VOTE TO SUPPORT HIS MORE "MODERATE"
POSITION.)

AL-HASSAN ON WHO'S HOT AND WHO'S NOT
--------------


4. (C) SPEAKING ABOUT VARIOUS HAMAS PERSONALITIES, AL-
HASSAN SAID THAT MAHMOUD ZAHHAR IS CLOSELY TRUSTED BY
YASIN. IN THE WEST BANK, YASIN RELIES ON JAMAL MANSOUR
FROM NABLUS. AL-HASSAN SAID THAT FUGITIVE MOHAMMED DEIF
WAS STILL AN IMPORTANT MEMBER OF HAMAS, BUT FOLLOWED
ORDERS FROM YASIN WHO, ACCORDING TO AL-HASSAN, IS
AGAINST "OPERATIONS" AT THIS TIME. DIF IS VERY
INTELLIGENT AND AL-HASSAN SAID HE WAS CONTINUALLY
CUTTING OFF CONTACT WITH THOSE WHO MIGHT BE ABLE TO LEAD
THE PA TO HIM. AL-HASSAN ALSO SAID THAT SAID BAREKAT,
FORMERLY OF THE PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD (PIJ),IS
INCREASINGLY INCLINED TO ACCEPT THE PEACE POCESS AND IS
NOW ACTIVE IN A GROUP FOUNDED BY AL-HASSAN THAT HAS MET
WITH ISRAELIS IN THE PAST. AMONG OTHER PIJ MEMBERS, AL-
HASSAN CHARACTERIZED SHELLAH AS "NOT A REAL FIGHTER" AND
SAID THAT RAMADAN "COULD BE EASILY BOUGHT OFF."

HAMAD: NO ELECTIONS
--------------


5. (C) ALTHOUGH HAMAD AGREED THAT HAMAS IS FACING SOME
DIFFICULT DECISIONS, HE SAID THERE WERE NO PLANS TO HOLD
ELECTIONS. UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES, HAMAD SAID, AN
ELECTION WOULD MERELY FOCUS ATTENTION ON THE DIVISIONS
WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION AND WAS THEREFORE UNWISE. HAMAS
IS FACING THE SAME ISSUES IT HAS BEEN CONSIDERING FOR
THE PAST YEAR. CHIEF AMONG THEM IS HAMAS' RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE PA AND THE DEBATE OVER HOLDING "MILITARY
OPERATIONS." YASIN IS TRYING TO REPAIR THE BREACHES IN
THE WALLS OF HAMAS UNITY AND FEELS INCREASINGLY THAT HE
IS UNDER A HEAVY BURDEN. YASIN, WHILE NOT RENOUNCING
TERROR ATTACKS, WANTS TO MOVE HAMAS INTO A MORE PURELY
POLITICAL DIRECTION.


HAMAS' LONG-TERM STRATEGY
--------------


6. (C) HAMAD SAID THAT PERSONALLY HE DID NOT FORESEE
RENEWED TERRORIST ATTACKS, DESPITE CONTINUED CLAIMS OF
HAMAS' ALLEGIANCE TO "ARMED STRUGGLE." HAMAD ADDED THAT
IT WAS DIFFICULT FOR HAMAS "TO REMAIN QUIET" IN THE FACE
OF ARRESTS AND CONTINUED DETENTION OF THEIR MEMBERS.
BUT IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, HAMAS UNDERSTOOD THE
CRACKDOWNS THAT WOULD FOLLOW ANY ATTACKS WERE A HIGH
PRICE TO PAY.


7. (C) POLITICALLY, HAMAD DISCOUNTED THE POSSIBILITY OF
A SPLIT WITHIN HAMAS. AS HAMAD HAS SAID IN THE PAST,
HAMAS DIFFERS INTERNALLY ON THE QUESTION OF TACTICS, BUT
REMAINED COMMITTED TO THE "IDEA OF HAMAS" (I.E.,
OPPOSITION TO OSLO AND TO ANY COMPROMISE ITH ISRAEL).
HAMAD SAID THAT THE BASIC HAMAS STRATEGY WAS TO WAIT FOR
THE PEACE PROCESS TO FAIL. AT THAT POINT, IT WOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE OF HAMAS TAKING UP ARMED STRUGGLE ALONE, ALL
PALESTINIANS WOULD TAKE UP ARMED STRUGGLE AND HAMAS
WOULD BE THE BEST POSITIONED TO LEAD IT.

HAMAD ON HAMAS PERSONALITIES
--------------


8. (C) HAMAD ALSO COMMENTED ON SOME HAMAS
PERSONALITIES. ON DEIF, HAMAD SAID THAT HE REMAINED
"BELOVED" AMONG PALESTINIANS BECAUSE OF THE TOLL HE
EXACTED FROM ISRAEL. BUT HE CHARACTERIZED DEIF AS BEING
"OUT OF THE PICTURE" FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. HAMAD ALSO
SAID THAT RANTISSI, DESPITE HIS RE-ARREST, REMAINED VERY
STRONG AND THAT TIME IN JAIL WOULD NOT DIMINISH HS
STRENGTH.

COMMENT:
--------------


9. (C) ISRAELIS ARE WORRIED THAT THE RECENT UPSWING IN
SMALL-SCALE OERATIONS PORTENDS A MUCH LARGER WAVE OF
ATTACKS TO COME. ACCORDING TO OUR INTERLOCUTORS IN
GAZA, SUCH IS NOT THE CASE. RATHER THEY POINT TO THE
RE-ARREST OF RANTISSI, THE BRIEF INARCERATION OF ISMAIL
ABU SHANAB, AND EVEN 12 HOURS HAMAD HIMSELF SPENT
ENJOYING JIBALI'S HOSPITALITY AS EVIDENCES OF A PA
CRACKDOWN. (HAMAD WAS DETAINED AFTER HE QUOTED NEW PA
ATTORNEY GENERAL ZOUHAIR SOURANI CRITICIZING THE STATE
SECURITY COURTS.) ALSO, PA OFFICIALS ARE QUTED IN THE
ISRAELI MEDIA AS SAYING THEY HAVE DETAINED 90 HAMAS
ACTIVISTS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HAMAS
ATTEMPTS TO ATTACK ISRAELIS. ON TE QUESTION OF
ELECTIONS, WE TEND TO CREDIT HAMAD. HAMAS LEADERSHIP
WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY TRY TO WORK OUT DIFFERENCES
PRIVATELY RATHER THAN ALLOW DIFFERENCES TO AIR IN ANY
SORT OF SEMI-PUBLIC MANNER. IF AND WHEN YASIN MANAGES
TO SORT OUT THESE DIFFERENCES, AN ELECTION MIGHT SERVE
HIS INTERESTS BY DEMONSTRATING HIS CONTINUING CONTROL
OVER THE ORGANIZATION.

SCHWARTZ

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