SHARIA, SHURA, AND STATEHOOD IN CHECHNYA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 004277

DEPT FOR S/NIS AND EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/26/09
TAGS: PGOV PREL RS
SUBJECT: SHARIA, SHURA, AND STATEHOOD IN CHECHNYA

REF: MOSCOW 2479

CLASSIFIED BY EDWARD J. SALAZAR, CHIEF, INTERNAL
POLITICAL AFFAIRS REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ORDWAY.
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) CHECHEN PRESIDENT MASKHADOV DECLARED A STATE OF
SHARIA (ISLAMIC) LAW EARLY IN FEBRUARY, PROMPTING A
FLOOD OF HIGH-LEVEL CRITICISM IN MOSCOW. RUSSIAN
POLITICIANS HAVE PREDICTED WORSENING RUSSIAN-CHECHEN
RELATIONS DUE TO THE SUSPENSION OF CONSTITUTIONAL LAW
IN THE BREAKAWAY REPUBLIC. ACCORDING TO REGIONAL
EXPERTS, THE INTRODUCTION OF SHARIA LAW AND A SHURA
(COUNCIL) IN CHECHNYA MAY BE NO MORE THAN A LAST DITCH
ATTEMPT BY MASKHADOV TO UNITE A SHARPLY-DIVIDED
POPULATION AND BUILD A SENSE OF STATEHOOD. THE
PROGNOSIS, HOWEVER, REMAINS THE SAME: IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT MASKHADOV OR THE OPPOSITION CAN ACCOMPLISH THIS
TASK. END SUMMARY.

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OUT WITH THE LEGISLATURE, IN WITH THE SHURA
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2. (U) ON FEBRUARY 3, THE INTRODUCTION OF FULL-SCALE
SHARIA (ISLAMIC) LAW WAS ANNOUNCED IN CHECHNYA ON THE
INITIATIVE OF CHECHEN PRESIDENT ASLAN MASKHADOV. TO
BEGIN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF SHARIA LAW, MASKHADOV
SIGNED SEVERAL DECREES STIPULATING THAT ALL LOCAL
LEGISLATION MUST BE BROUGHT INTO LINE WITH THE KORAN
AND DECREED THE CREATION OF A SHURA (COUNCIL) ACCORDING
TO SHARIA REGULATIONS. PRESS REPORTS FURTHER INDICATE
THAT, IN AN EFFORT TO HASTEN THE TRANSITION TO ISLAMIC
LAW, THE EXISTING CHECHEN LEGISLATURE WAS STRIPPED OF
ITS LEGISLATIVE FUNCTIONS, AND THE POST OF VICE
PRESIDENT WAS ABOLISHED.

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OUT WITH THE LEGISLATURE, IN WITH THE SHURA
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3. (C) ON FEBRUARY 10, CHECHNYA'S NEWLY-FORMED SHURA
ASSUMED RESPONSIBILITY FOR "CONSULTING" WITH PRESIDENT
MASKHADOV, ACCORDING TO PRESS ACCOUNTS. THE CHECHEN
SHURA IS COMPRISED OF 34 MEMBERS IN ADDITION TO
MASKHADOV. THE SHURA INCLUDES SEVERAL PROMINENT
OPPOSITION LEADERS SUCH AS FORMER PM SHAMIL BASAYEV,
FORMER VP VAKHA ARSANOV, FORMER PRESIDENT ZELIMKHAN
YANDERBIYEV, AND OPPOSITION FIELD COMMANDER KHUNKOR-
PASHA ISRAPILOV. (NOTE: ALTHOUGH CHECHEN "WAR LORDS"
ARBI BARAYEV AND AL-KHATTAB ARE NOT MEMBERS OF THE
SHURA, OBSERVERS BELIEVE THEY CONTINUE IN THEIR SUPPORT
OF BASAYEV. END NOTE)


4. (U) ALTHOUGH MASKHADOV'S ACTIONS ARE WIDELY
BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN AN EFFORT TO CO-OPT HIS EXTREMIST
OPPOSITION, THE INTRODUCTION OF FULL-SCALE SHARIA AND
THE CREATION OF A SHURA HAVE NOT CREATED PEACE INSIDE
THE REBEL REPUBLIC. THE CHECHEN OPPOSITION, LED MOST
OFTEN BY BASAYEV, CONTINUED TO EXERT PRESSURE ON
CHECHEN SOCIETY TO REMOVE MASKHADOV FROM HIS POST AS
PRESIDENT. IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE RUSSIAN PRESS ON
FEBRUARY 23, BASAYEV CLAIMED MASKHADOV'S INTRODUCTION
OF SHARIA LAW WAS "INSINCERE," AND ALLEGED THAT AN
INDEPENDENT SHARIA COURT WILL BE FORMED WHICH WILL
"DECIDE WHO IS GUILTY" AND RECOMMEND APPROPRIATE
PUNISHMENT FOR THE "GUILTY." NO FURTHER DETAILS WERE
GIVEN.


5. (C) ACCORDING TO CAUCASUS EXPERT ALEKSEY MALASHENKO
OF THE MOSCOW CARNEGIE CENTER, THE SHURA CREATED IN
CHECHNYA IS NOT A TRADITIONAL MOSLEM SHURA RUN BY
RELIGIOUS MEN. INSTEAD, MALASHENKO BELIEVES, THE
CHECHEN SHURA IS A COUNCIL OF MILITARY MEN. MALASHENKO
CLAIMS THE CHECHENS CAME TO HIM OVER A YEAR AGO AND
ASKED FOR MATERIALS AND INFORMATION ON SHARIA LAW AND
BUILDING AN ISLAMIC STATE. HE SAYS HE ADVISED THEM ON
THE DIFFICULTY OF MOSLEM CIVIC EDUCATION IN A POST-
SOVIET SOCIETY, AND GAVE THEM BOOKS ON ISLAM AND SHARIA
LAW. AFTER WATCHING THE EVENTS OF THE PAST MONTH,
MALASHENKO SADLY CONCLUDED THAT NO ONE IN THE CHECHEN
LEADERSHIP EVER READ THE MATERIAL THEY RECEIVED.

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FROM "BAD" TO "WORSE"
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6. (U) MASKHADOV'S MOVE TO INTRODUCE SHARIA AND FORM A
SHURA BEFORE HIS OPPOSITION BEAT HIM TO IT HAS BEEN MET
WITH A FLOOD OF HIGH-LEVEL CRITICISM ELSEWHERE.
COMMUNIST LEADER GENNADIY ZYUGANOV CALLED THE
INTRODUCTION OF SHARIA LAW A "ROLL-BACK TO THE DARK
AGES" AND PREDICTED A WORSENING OF THE REFUGEE
SITUATION IN THE REGION. DEPUTY PM FOR REGIONAL
AFFAIRS VADIM GUSTOV CHARACTERIZED THE INTRODUCTION OF
SHARIA AS DIVISIVE, AND CLAIMED IT MAY LEAD TO A
"YUGOSLAVIA VERSION" OF RUSSIA, AND WILL MEAN "WAR."


7. (C) GUSTOV MAY FIND HE HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR A
MILITARY INTERVENTION IN CHECHNYA, HOWEVER. ACCORDING
TO A MOSCOW OPINION POLL CONDUCTED ON FEBRUARY 12-14,
ONLY THREE PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED BELIEVE THAT THE
GOVERNMENT SHOULD USE MILITARY FORCE TO BRING CHECHNYA
FULLY BACK INTO THE FOLD OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION.
SIXTY-EIGHT PERCENT OPPOSE THE USE FORCE, EVEN THOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF RESPONDENTS BELIEVE CHECHNYA IS A PART
OF RUSSIA.


8. (U) ALTHOUGH CLEARLY IN THE MINORITY, MODERATE
VOICES HAVE SPOKEN OUT WITH A "WAIT AND SEE" ATTITUDE
TOWARDS CHECHEN SHARIA. SPEAKER OF THE RUSSIAN DUMA,
GENNADIY SELEZNEV, STATED THAT REGIONAL EXPERTS MUST
FIRST SPECIFY WHAT KIND OF SHARIA RULE CHECHNYA WILL
ADOPT OFFICIALLY BEFORE AN OPINION CAN BE FORMED. THE
PREDICTABLY MODERATE DAGESTAN-BORN MINISTER FOR
NATIONALITIES, RAMAZAN ABDULATIPOV, CALLED THE
INTRODUCTION OF SHARIA IN CHECHNYA "A RASH STEP" AND
STATED THAT MASKHADOV HAS "WEAKENED HIS POSITION" AND
MAY BE REMOVED FROM HIS PRESIDENTIAL POST AT ANY TIME
BY THE NEWLY-FORMED SHURA. ABDULATIPOV ALSO QUESTIONED
THE ABILITY OF CHECHNYA TO "EXERCISE CIVILIZED ISLAM
AND SHARIA LAW," POINTING OUT THAT "NO ONE IN CHECHEN
SOCIETY IS SUFFICIENTLY VERSED ON SHARIA STANDARDS,
BEGINNING WITH THE PRESIDENT AND ENDING WITH THE FIELD
COMMANDERS."

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COMMENT
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9. (C) THE FIRST WEEKS FOLLOWING THE INTRODUCTION OF
SHARIA LAW IN CHECHNYA HAVE BROUGHT NO RESOLUTION TO
THE ONGOING POWER STRUGGLE BETWEEN PRESIDENT MASKHADOV
AND THE OPPOSITION FIELD COMMANDERS. MASKHADOV AND THE
OPPOSITION HAVE YET TO REVEAL THE "DEGREE" OF SHARIA
THEY INTEND TO IMPOSE. THEIR NEWLY-CREATED SHURA DOES
APPEAR TO BE NO MORE THAN A COUNCIL OF MILITARY MEN, AS
NO SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP HAS EMERGED FROM THE RUINS OF
CHECHEN SOCIETY. ACCORDING TO REGIONAL EXPERTS, THE
QUESTION OF CHECHNYA'S ABILITY TO BUILD ANY TYPE OF
STATE, INCLUDING AN ISLAMIC ONE, REMAINS THE CORE
ISSUE. THE OFFICIAL SUSPENSION OF CONSTITUTIONAL LAW
IN THE BREAKAWAY REPUBLIC, HOWEVER PRO-FORMA, MAY
SIGNAL THE FURTHER WORSENING OF RELATIONS BETWEEN
CHECHNYA AND MOSCOW, PARTICULARLY IF NO COMPROMISE
FORMULA CAN BRIDGE THE GAP NEEDED TO GIVE SHARIA LAW
THE VEIL OF CONFORMANCE WITH THE RUSSIAN CONSTITUTION.

COLLINS