PUBLIC DIPLOMACY: USAMA BIN LADIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000495



USIA



FOR NEA, I/GNEA

STATE FOR SA/PAB, D, PA



E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/09

TAGS: PREL, PTER, KISL, PK, AF

SUBJECT: PUBLIC DIPLOMACY: USAMA BIN LADIN



REF: PESHAWAR 031





1. CLASSIFIED BY PUBLIC DIPLOMACY COUNSELOR

RICHARD HOAGLAND FOR REASONS 1.5(D)



2. (C) SUMMARY: IT IS OUR IMPRESSION THAT

THE USG IS NOT DOING AS WELL AS IT MIGHT

PROJECTING PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ON USAMA BIN

LADIN (UBL). WE WOULD LIKE TO SUGGEST THAT

WASHINGTON CONSIDER A REVIEW OF THIS PUBLIC

DIPLOMACY EFFORT. END SUMMARY.



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PUBLIC OPINION TRENDS

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2. (C) WE NOTE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC OPINION

TRENDS:



-- THE PRO-TALIBAN AL-RASHID TRUST IN

KARACHI CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT PRO-UBL -- AND

CORRESPONDINGLY ANTI-U.S./ANTI-WESTERN --

BOOKS, NEWSPAPERS, MAGAZINES, AND POSTERS IN

URDU, ENGLISH, AND AFGHAN LANGUAGES AT

NOMINAL COST OR FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION. E.G.,

THE TRUST RECENTLY INTRODUCED A 3' X 2' FOUR-

COLOR PRO-UBL POSTER WITH PHOTOS, MAPS, AND

IDEOLOGICAL TEXTS AVAILABLE FOR 15 RUPEES,

ABOUT 30 CENTS -- JUST A BIT MORE THAN THE

COST OF A SIDEWALK HAIRCUT. THIS POSTER BEAT

THE USG'S UBL "WANTED" POSTER TO THE STREET.



-- WE FREQUENTLY HEAR REPORTS THAT SOME IN

THE LOWER-MIDDLE AND LOWER CLASSES, BOTH

URBAN AND RURAL, CONSIDER UBL AN ISLAMIC HERO

BECAUSE THE U.S. HAS NAMED HIM "PUBLIC ENEMY

NUMBER ONE." THAT SAID, IT'S OUR IMPRESSION

THAT THE MAJORITY OF MUSLIMS, AT LEAST IN

PAKISTAN, DO NOT NECESSARILY SUPPORT THIS

VIEW. THE PENDING USG DISTRIBUTION OF UBL

"WANTED" POSTERS AND MATCHBOOKS IN PAKISTAN

MAY INCREASE UBL'S STATURE AS A KIND OF FOLK

HERO.



-- U.S. AND BRITISH EFFORTS TO DISTINGUISH

BETWEEN TERRORISTS, LIKE BIN LADIN, AND "GOOD

MUSLIMS" ARE SOMETIMES PORTRAYED IN THE MEDIA

AND BY RELIGIOUS FIGURES IN THEIR WRITINGS

AND SERMONS AS ATTEMPTS TO DIVIDE ALL MUSLIMS

BY CO-OPTING WESTERNIZED -- MEANING (TO THEM)

"MORALLY CORRUPT" -- MODERATES. (NOTE: THIS

REPRESENTS THE PHILOSOPHICALLY ROMANTIC VIEW

THAT ISLAM PER SE ERASES ALL DIVISIONS, THAT

THE MUSLIM UMMAH IS "ONE," AND THAT AN ATTACK

ON ONE IS AN ATTACK ON ALL. END NOTE.)



-- IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THEIR ORDINARY

EXECRABLE PUBLIC RELATIONS PERFORMANCE ON THE

BIN LADEN QUESTION, THE TALIBAN HAVE PRE-

EMPTED US CONSISTENTLY SINCE AUGUST, FIRST BY

ANNOUNCING THEIR WILLINGNESS TO HAVE

AFGHANISTAN;S SUPREME COURT EXAMINE THE

CHARGES AGAINST BIN LADIN AND THEN BY

ANNOUNCING THAT NO "EVIDENCE" (BY WHICH THEY

MEANT HARD FACTS IN PROOF OF THE CHARGES) HAD

BEEN PRESENTED. OUR RESPONSE IN EACH CASE

WAS MUTED AND DELAYED. CONTINUING THIS TREND

ON THE TALIBAN'S PART, EARLY IN JANUARY, THE

TALIBAN SPONSORED A SEMINAR IN KABUL,

REPORTED BY RADIO SHARIA, ON THE LIFE, TIMES,

AND THOUGHTS OF UBL (REFTEL).





-- ACCORDING TO RECENT PRESS REPORTS,

PAKISTANI TALIBS WHO HAVE SERVED IN

AFGHANISTAN, ALONG WITH AFGHAN TALIBS, ARE

BEGINNING TO ENFORCE THEIR DOGMAS AND SOCIAL

CONTROLS IN PAKISTAN'S TRIBAL TERRITORIES AND

IN SOME PLACES IN BALOCHISTAN AND NWFP

PROVINCES. ALSO, LAST WEEK, THE GOP ENFORCED

ISLAMIC LAW BY DECREE IN MALAKAND DIVISION

AND IN A PART OF KOHISTAN. ALTHOUGH THESE

DEVELOPMENTS ARE RELATIVELY ISOLATED AS YET,

THEY SUGGEST A DISTURBING TREND. INDEED, THE

FIFTEENTH AMENDMENT TO THE PAKISTANI

CONSTITUTION ESTABLISHING SHARIA AS THE

SUPREME LAW OF PAKISTAN -- AN AVOWEDLY HIGH

PRIORITY OF THE NAWAZ SHARIF GOVERNMENT --

HAS BEEN PASSED BY THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND

IS PENDING BEFORE THE SENATE.



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WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?

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4. (C) WE ARE UNLIKELY EVER TO MAKE MUCH

INROAD WITH UBL'S HARD-CORE SUPPORTERS

BECAUSE THEY ARE TRUE-BELIEVER ABSOLUTISTS

AND TEND TO THINK AND REACT LARGELY

EMOTIONALLY: FACTS ARE LESS IMPORTANT TO

THEM THAN EMOTIONS. THEY ARE NOT OPEN TO

PERSUASION. FURTHER, WE FACE A FORMIDABLE

FOE AMONG THOSE WHO ARE CHURNING OUT AND

WIDELY DISSEMINATING PRO-UBL PROPAGANDA AND

TAKING OTHER ACTIVE MEASURES.



5. (C) HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A

LARGE MIDDLE GROUND, IN PAKISTAN AND IN

AFGHANISTAN, WHICH IS NOT AUTOMATICALLY ANTI-

U.S./ANTI-WESTERN AND WHICH IS NOT

IDEOLOGICALLY COMMITTED TO UBL AND HIS PAN-

ISLAMIST REVOLUTION. THIS MIDDLE GROUND,

SOMEWHAT SUSCEPTIBLE TO REASON, OR AT LEAST

TO OTHER INFORMATION, SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY

TARGET. THE MESSAGE CRAFTED FOR THEM WOULD

ALSO BE WELCOMED BY THE EDUCATED, WESTWARD-

LOOKING ELITE OF BOTH PAKISTAN AND

AFGHANISTAN WHO FEEL THREATENED BY UBL'S

ADVOCACY OF VIOLENCE AND THEOLOGICAL

OBSCURANTISM.



6. (C) THE FOCUS OF ANY ENHANCED USG PUBLIC

DIPLOMACY EFFORT SHOULD BE TO PORTRAY UBL AND

OTHERS AROUND HIM AS CRIMINALS, BOTH BY

INTERNATIONAL AND BY ISLAMIC STANDARDS.

WHERE POSSIBLE, RESPONSIBILITY OF THE

MOVEMENT "AL-QAIDA" SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED, NOT

JUST UBL AS AN INDIVIDUAL.



-- WHEN WE FOCUS ON BIN LADIN, AND

ESPECIALLY FOR AFGHAN CONSUMPTION, WE SHOULD

MAKE THREE POINTS: 1) THE U.S. IS NOT

AGAINST AFGHANISTAN AND THE AFGHAN PEOPLE, 2)

THE U.S. IS NOT AGAINST ANY PARTICULAR AFGHAN

POLITICAL FACTION, AND 3) THE U.S. WANTS UBL

EXPELLED FROM AFGHANISTAN TO A PLACE WHERE HE

CAN BE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE.



-- THE BROADER PUBLIC DIPLOMACY EFFORT COULD

INCLUDE, TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE, A "CHARGE

SHEET" OF THE CRIMES COMMITTED BY UBL, BY HIS

CLOSEST ASSOCIATES, AND BY HIS FOLLOWERS,

NOTING THE FACT THAT MANY OF THEIR VICTIMS

HAVE BEEN MUSLIMS OF VARIOUS NATIONALITIES.



-- RECOGNIZING THE NEED TO PROTECT SOURCES

AND METHODS AND NOT TO COMPROMISE ON-GOING

INVESTIGATIONS AND JUDICIAL PROCESSES, WE

SHOULD BE FORTHCOMING TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT

POSSIBLE ABOUT THE DETAILS OF THE NAIROBI AND

DAR ES SALAAM BOMBINGS, AS WELL AS ABOUT

UBL'S AND HIS MOVEMENT'S OTHER CRIMES.



-- THIS INTENSIFIED PUBLIC DIPLOMACY EFFORT

SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE VALIDATION FROM ISLAMIC

SOURCES THAT THESE CRIMES ARE INDEED

RECOGNIZED AS CRIMES UNDER ISLAM. RATHER

THAN STATEMENTS BY U.S.- OR UK-BASED ISLAMIC

SCHOLARS, IT WOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE TO USE

THE TEACHINGS AND PUBLIC STATEMENTS OF MAJOR

ISLAMIC SCHOLARS AND RELIGIOUS LEADERS FROM

SAUDI ARABIA, EGYPT, AND ELSEWHERE. IN

SELECTING/ELICITING SUCH CITATIONS, IT SHOULD

BE KEPT IN MIND THAT UBL AND THE PAN-

ISLAMISTS DISMISS SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPT AS

ONLY NOMINALLY ISLAMIC STATES CAPTIVE TO

U.S.-TOADYING, DESPOTIC, AND APOSTATE LEADERS.



-- KEEPING IN MIND THAT IN HIS DECEMBER 23

INTERVIEW UBL JUSTIFIED KILLING MUSLIMS IN

HIS JIHAD AGAINST "CRUSADERS AND JEWS," AND

RECOGNIZING THE EMOTIONAL ASPECT OF OUR

TARGET AUDIENCE, WE SHOULD PREPARE FOR

DISSEMINATION MORE HUMAN INTEREST STORIES OF

UBL'S VICTIMS, ESPECIALLY HIS MUSLIM VICTIMS

OF VARIOUS NATIONALITIES. U.S. MEDIA REPORTS

OF BLINDED KENYANS, FOR EXAMPLE, RECEIVED

GOOD COVERAGE IN THE PAKISTANI PRINT MEDIA.



7. (7) EFFECTIVE METHODS WOULD NATURALLY

INCLUDE THE TRADITIONAL USG PUBLIC DIPLOMACY

TOOLS: VOA LANGUAGE SERVICES, INCLUDING

INTERVIEWS WITH UBL'S MUSLIM VICTIMS;

CAREFULLY TARGETED WORLDNET INTERACTIVES;

WIRELESS-FILE TEXTS AND FACT SHEETS FOR

TRANSLATION INTO LOCAL LANGUAGES; AND

COMMISSIONED ARTICLES FOR PRESS PLACEMENT.



8. (C) CONSIDERATION COULD ALSO BE GIVEN TO

PRODUCTION OF A BOOKLET IN LOCAL LANGUAGES ON

THE CRIMES OF BIN LADIN AND HIS ASSOCIATES,

ALONG WITH VICTIMS' STORIES, FOR NON-

CONVENTIONAL DISTRIBUTION IN MOSQUES,

MADRASSAS, ISLAMIC STUDY CENTERS, ISLAMIA

DEPARTMENTS OF UNIVERSITIES, AND BOOKSTORES.



9. (C) A NON-USG-IDENTIFIED WEB SITE COULD

ALSO BE CREATED TO POST THE ABOVE MATERIAL

AND THE URL WIDELY DISTRIBUTED. ALTHOUGH

THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE COUNTER-INTUITIVE --

THAT THE MASSES DON'T USE THE INTERNET --

ALMOST ALL ISLAMIC AND ISLAMIST GROUPS DO

INDEED HAVE INTERNET ACCESS AND USE IT

EXTENSIVELY.





HOAGLAND