PROMINENT HK JOURNALIST: CHINA´S ARMY WANTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 008575 E.O. 12958: DECL:09/24/09 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH HK TW US PINR SUBJECT: PROMINENT HK JOURNALIST: CHINA´S ARMY WANTS A FIGHT, HU JINTAO´S FUTURE MURKY (U) CLASSIFIED BY E/P CHIEF LISA KUBISKE. REASON 1.5 (B). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) LONG-TIME CHINA REPORTER XXXXXXXXXXXX RECENTLY DESCRIBED AN INSULAR CHINESE MILITARY LEADERSHIP THAT INCREASINGLY HAS LOOKED TO LIMITED ARMED CONFLICT WITH TAIWAN AS A MEANS TO RESTORING THE ARMY´S PRESTIGE. HE ADDED THAT VICE PRESIDENT HU JINTAO WAS OUT OF FAVOR WITH PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN BECAUSE OF HIS POOR HANDLING OF THE ACCIDENTAL BOMBING OF THE CHINESE EMBASSY IN BELGRADE AND BY HAVING A RELATIONSHIP WITH A YOUNG WOMAN. JIANG, XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID, HAD CONSEQUENTLY JUDGED HU UNWORTHY OF SUCCEEDING HIM AS CHINA´S TOP LEADER. XXXXXXXXXXXX ALSO ASSERTED THAT JIANG ZEMIN HAS PROTECTED THE CAREER OF DING GUANGEN AND OTHER FORMER MEMBERS OF DENG XIAOPING´S OFFICE IN THE HOPE OF ENJOYING SIMILAR TREATMENT FOR JIANG´S PROTEGES FOLLOWING HIS DEPARTURE. THE DISCUSSION ALSO SHED SOME LIGHT ON XXXXXXXXXXXX´S ADMITTEDLY SPOTTY TRACK RECORD READING THE TEA LEAVES IN BEIJING. HE NOTED THAT HIS SOURCES AT TIMES HAVE FED HIM STORIES DESIGNED TO SPIN MORE THAN INFORM. XXXXXXXXXXXX COMPLAINED, MOREOVER, OF HIS INABILITY TO CONFIRM OR DENY A STORY WITH BEIJING AUTHORITIES BEFORE GOING TO PRESS. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (C) A FREE-WHEELING LUNCH DISCUSSION ON SEPTEMBER 14 WITH XXXXXXXXXXXX PROVIDED SOME DETAIL LACKING IN XXXXXXXXXXXX´S RECENT REPORTING ON CHINESE POLITICS. WHEN ASKED ABOUT RECENT PRESS REPORTS OF HIGH-RANKING PLA OFFICERS SPYING FOR TAIWAN, XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID HIS SOURCES HAVE TOLD HIM MANY OFFICERS INCREASINGLY HAVE SEEN SOME FORM OF LIMITED MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TAIWAN AS AN ATTRACTIVE SOLUTION TO THE ARMY´S SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STREAM OF PUBLIC HUMILIATION. ACCORDING TO XXXXXXXXXXXX´S SOURCES, THE ARMY MIGHT ATTACK ONE OF THE TAIWAN-HELD ISLANDS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT THEN WITHDRAW. XXXXXXXXXXXX SAYS OFFICERS WHO FAVOR SUCH ACTION HAVE SAID AN ATTACK WOULD RESTORE THE ARMY´S TARNISHED IMAGE AND LEGITIMACY, YIELD INCREASED MILITARY FUNDING, AND LEAD TO PROMOTIONS FOR OFFICERS WHO HAVE NOT SEEN COMBAT SINCE THE BORDER SKIRMISHES WITH VIETNAM IN THE 1980S. WHEN POLOFFS REMARKED THAT ANY SUCH MOVE WOULD BE DISASTROUS FOR CHINA, XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID THAT HIS CONTACTS HAVE TOLD HIM THAT MANY OFFICERS FROM THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM OF THE CHAIN OF COMMAND WERE ILL-INFORMED ABOUT INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AND EITHER DID NOT UNDERSTAND OR DID NOT CARE ABOUT THE FOREIGN POLICY OR ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THEIR ACTIONS. XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID, HOWEVER, THAT THE ARMY COULD NOT DECIDE TO GO TO WAR WITHOUT CIVILIAN APROVAL. IN ANY EVENT, HE SAID, CHINA WOULD NOT ATTACK IF TAIWAN PRESIDENT LEE TENG-HUI´S SUCCESSOR IN ELECTIONS NEXT MARCH TOOK A LOW-KEY APPROACH TO LEE´S "TWO STATES THEORY"; A RETRACTION WOULD NOT BE NECESSARY. THE ARMY WOULD BE WATCHING AND WAITING UNTIL THEN. LEADERSHIP TIDBITS -------------- ¶4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX FREQUENTLY PEPPERED THE CONVERSATION WITH INFORMATION HE HAS KEPT OUT OF PRINT. FOR EXAMPLE, HE DECLARED WITHOUT PROMPTING THAT VICE PRESIDENT HU JINTAO HAD SCANDALIZED JIANG ZEMIN BY CARRYING ON A RELATIONSHIP WITH A CHINESE CENTRAL TELEVISION NEWS ANCHORWOMAN IN HER TWENTIES -- YOUNGER THAN HU´S OWN DAUGHTER. XXXXXXXXXXXX CITED THIS AS AN EXAMPLE OF WHY JIANG HAD DECIDED THAT HU "DEFINITELY" WOULD NOT SUCCEED HIM AS THE "CORE" OF THE NEXT GENERATION OF CHINESE LEADERS. HE ADDED WITHOUT ELABORATION THAT, BASED ON HU´S HANDLING OF THE ACCIDENTAL BOMBING OF CHINA´S BELGRADE EMBASSY, JIANG NOW BELIEVED THE VICE PRESIDENT WAS TOO WEAK TO SUCCEED HIM. THUS, JIANG WOULD STAY ON FOR ANOTHER TERM, OR STEP DOWN BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH PLIANT FIGUREHEADS HOLDING THE FORMAL LEADERSHIP POSITIONS. (COMMENT: THIS LINE PROVIDED A TIDY WAY FOR XXXXXXXXXXXX TO COVER HIMSELF WHEN HU WAS NAMED CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION VICE CHAIRMAN ON SEPTEMBER 22. END COMMENT.) IN PRINT THE NEXT DAY, THIS TIME CITING A "DIPLOMATIC SOURCE," XXXXXXXXXXXX BRIEFLY REFERRED TO A SCANDAL INVOLVING AN UNNAMED "FOURTH GENERATION LEADER" AND HIS TELEVISION NEWSCASTER MISTRESS BUT LEFT OUT THE REST OF THE DETAILS. ¶5. (C) AS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF XXXXXXXXXXXX´S UNPROMPTED ASSERTIONS, HE SAID THAT JIANG ZEMIN WAS A BUDDHIST, THOUGH AN "UNORTHODOX" ONE. XXXXXXXXXXXX CLAIMED ONE OF HIS BEIJING SOURCES TOLD HIM THAT LAST LUNAR NEW YEAR JIANG GOT UP AT THREE IN THE MORNING AND DROVE TWO HOURS OUT OF BEIJING TO ATTEND A BUDDHIST CEREMONY AT AN UNNAMED TEMPLE. HE ADDED THAT JIANG WENT TO VISIT DAOIST SAGES AT "WUDAN MOUNTAIN" FOLLOWING THE ACCIDENTAL BOMBING IN BELGRADE AND SPENT AN HOUR DISCUSSING "MATTERS OF STATE" WITH A DAOIST PRIEST. (COMMENT: THOUGH HE DID NOT SAY SO, PERHAPS XXXXXXXXXXXX WAS DESCRIBING WHAT HE SEES AS JIANG´S POTENTIAL VULNERABILITY IN THE PARTY´S ONGOING CRACKDOWN ON SPIRITUAL PRACTICES. END COMMENT.) ¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX ALSO STATED UNEQUIVOCALLY, BEFORE WRITING ABOUT RUMORS TO THE CONTRARY, THAT PROPAGANDA CHIEF DING GUANGEN WOULD STAY IN HIS POST. XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID HIS SOURCES MADE CLEAR THAT DING WAS HATED "BY EVERYONE" IN BEIJING BUT THAT JIANG WOULD PROTECT DING ON THE ADVICE OF HIS MENTOR WANG DAOHAN. ACCORDING TO XXXXXXXXXXXX, WANG WARNED THAT DING -- LIKE CMC MEMBER WANG RUILIN - - WAS CONSIDERED ONE OF DENG XIAOPING´S STAFF AND THEREFORE MUST BE PROTECTED IF JIANG WANTED THE SAME CONSIDERATION TO BE GIVEN TO HIS PROTEGES ONCE HE RETIRES. UNRELIABLE SOURCES -------------- ¶7. (C) IN ANSWERING POLOFFS´ QUESTIONS ABOUT DEADLINES AND PRESS TIMES IN HONG KONG, XXXXXXXXXXXX COMMENTED THAT HIS STORIES DON´T PAN OUT AT TIMES BECAUSE HIS SOURCES SOMETIMES FLOAT STORIES AS TRIAL BALLOONS OR TO SATISFY SOME OTHER AGENDA. GIVEN XXXXXXXXXXXX´S TIGHT DEADLINE AND HIS INABILITY TO CONTACT CHINESE OFFICIALS DIRECTLY TO CONFIRM STORIES, HE SAID HE CAN BE WRONG SOMETIMES. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) POLOFFS FOUND XXXXXXXXXXXX TO BE A CAGEY BUT TALKATIVE INTERLOCUTOR WHO APPEARS GENUINE IN HIS DESIRE TO TELL A GOOD NEWS STORY; HIS IS NO "DRUDGE REPORT." BUT HIS REPORTING DOES NOT APPEAR TO MEET U.S. JOURNALISTIC STANDARDS OF SOURCING EITHER, AND SHOULD BE READ WITH THAT IN MIND. MOREOVER, XXXXXXXXXXXX REPORTS FROM A PLACE WHERE STORIES CAN TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN, AND WHERE IT CAN BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH CORROBORATION FROM REPETITION OF THE SAME RUMOR OR OUTRIGHT SPIN. FOR EXAMPLE, IN A SEPARATE MEETING LAST WEEK WITH POLOFF, XXXXXXXXXXXX -- ECHOED XXXXXXXXXXXX´S RECENTLY PUBLISHED STORIES ABOUT PREMIER ZHU RONGJI´S DECLINING POWER. XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID HE HAD EVEN HEARD NEW RUMORS THAT ZHU MAY STEP DOWN AFTER THE OCTOBER 1 NATIONAL DAY CELEBRATIONS. XXXXXXXXXXXX ATTRIBUTED ZHU´S SUPPOSED FALL TO HIS "TOO SOFT" APPROACH IN DEALING WITH THE FALUNGONG MOVEMENT. POLOFFS SUSPECT THAT XXXXXXXXXXXX´S LINE WAS INTENDED TO BOLSTER HIS PLEAS FOR THE UNITED STATES TO "DO MORE" TO HELP IMPROVE SINO-U.S. RELATIONS -- LIKE DEEMPHASIZING CHINA´S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD -- LEST REFORMERS LIKE ZHU PAY THE PRICE FOR APPEARING WEAK IN DEALING WITH THE UNITED STATES. SOME OF XXXXXXXXXXXX´S BEIJING SOURCES MAY HAVE TOLD HIM SIMILAR STORIES ABOUT ZHU AND HU JINTAO TO FURTHER THE SAME AGENDA. END COMMENT. KLOSSON