BASHAR CONTACT SAYS ASAD'S SON HAS "INDEPENDENT"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000239 NICOSIA FOR ILMG E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/09 TAGS: PGOV ECON SY SUBJECT: BASHAR CONTACT SAYS ASAD'S SON HAS "INDEPENDENT" INFLUENCE OVER ARMY; ADMITS REGIME IGNORANT ON ECONOMIC ISSUES REF: (A) DAMASCUS IIR 6 891 0060 99 (B) 98 DAMASCUS 7639 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RYAN C. CROCKER. REASON 1.5 (B) AND (D). BASHAR KNOCKING HEADS IN THE MILITARY -------------- ¶1. (C) ONE OF OUR CONTACTS WHO SEEMINGLY HAS OPEN CHANNELS OF COMMUNICATION TO PRESIDENTIAL SON BASHAR AL-ASAD (AND AN APPARENT AGENDA TO HIGHLIGHT THE REALITIES OF HIS ASCENDANCE),PROVIDED NEW EVIDENCE OF HIS MENTOR'S CREDENTIALS ON JANUARY 11. -- THE CASE OF BASHIR NAJJAR, FORMER GID CHIEF WHO WAS DISMISSED LAST JULY, HAS BEEN REFERRED TO COURT FOR PROSECUTION, APPARENTLY FOR CORRUPTION. -- SMI IS SLOWLY BUT THOROUGHLY BEING CLEANSED OF SMI CHIEF `ALI DUBA'S MEN, WHO ARE PEPPERED THROUGHOUT THE ORGANIZATION. THE LATEST AND MOST VISIBLE EXAMPLE WAS AHMAD `ABUD, WHO OUR SOURCE SAID WAS ONE OF SYRIA'S MOST POWERFUL MILITARY MEN SIX YEARS AGO (IN CHARGE OF PERSONNEL ASSIGNMENTS). THREE YEARS AGO, HOWEVER, `ABUD WAS STRIPPED OF REAL AUTHORITY, AND FINALLY, IN JANUARY, BASHAR ORDERED HE BE KICKED OUT OF THE MILITARY COMPLETELY. -- UP TO A "DOZEN OFFICERS" HAVE BEEN ARRESTED IN THE PAST TWO MONTHS AT BASHAR'S BEHEST. THESE ARRESTS HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ATTACKS ON THE EMBASSY, RATHER THEY WERE INTENDED TO SHOW INTOLERANCE FOR CORRUPTION (NOTE: AND APPARENTLY TO DEMONSTRATE BASHAR'S "TOUGH GUY" CREDENTIALS). AMONG THOSE ARRESTED, THE HEAD OF SMI'S ADMINISTRATIVE MISSIONS OFFICE (IDARAT AL-MUHIMMAT),ANOTHER OFFICER IDENTIFIED AS HASAN AL-`ALI (NOTE: EMBASSY HOLDINGS IDENTIFY HIM AS THE COMMANDER OF THE ELECTRONIC WARFARE ACADEMY, A REPORT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH REF A INDICATIONS THAT THIS INDIVIDUAL HAS BEEN "REMOVED" FROM HIS JOB),AND ANOTHER OFFICER IDENTIFIED AS H. `ABBAS. (NOTE: WE WILL ATTEMPT TO INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRM THESE REPORTS OF ARRESTS.) -- THE HOUSE DEMOLITIONS (REF B) IN SLUNFE AND YA`FUR WERE ENTIRELY BASHAR'S INITIATIVE. ¶2. (C) ANOTHER SOURCE WITH EXCELLENT CONNECTIONS IN THE MILITARY TOLD EMBOFFS JANUARY 13 THAT ALL OF SYRIA'S SENIOR MILITARY LEADERSHIP PAST RETIREMENT AGE (E.G., `ALI DUBA, MUSTAFA TALAS),WILL BE REPLACED BY NEXT JULY (IN THE NEXT ROUND OF PROMTOIONS/RETIREMENTS). OUR SOURCE SAID THE CHANGES WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT AND UNPARALLELED. HE SAID THAT, ALTHOUGH ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF `ALI `ASLAN HAD BEEN GRANTED AN EXTENSION, HE TOO WOULD BE GONE BY JULY. THIS SOURCE SAID THERE HAD BEEN GREAT SURPRISE (AMONG THE MILITARY) AT THE LARGE NUMBER OF YOUNGER OFFICERS WHO WERE FORCED OUT THIS ROUND, AND IMPLIED IT WAS BECAUSE THEY WERE NOT A GOOD FIT WITH BASHAR. LEADERSHIP'S ECONOMIC BLINDERS -------------- ¶3. (C) OUR FIRST CONTACT ALSO CONFIRMED OUR LONG-HELD SUSPICION THAT THE SYRIAN LEADERSHIP HAS NO REAL SENSE OF THE ECONOMIC REALITIES OF THE COUNTRY. HE SAID THAT, PARTLY PRODDED BY DISCUSSIONS WITH ECONCHIEF (ABOUT THE EMBASSY'S DRAFT REPORT ON SYRIA'S ECONOMY IN 1997/98),HE APPROACHED SENIOR "POLITICAL" FIGURES (NOTE: USUALLY BASHAR) TO COMPLAIN THAT SARG DATA IS NOT A COGENT BASIS FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS. HE WAS APPARENTLY GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE HIS CASE ON THIS POINT AND PROVIDE SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT. THE CONTACT ALSO SAID HE WAS AUTHORIZED TO PROVIDE FURTHER DATA TO ENHANCE THE DRAFT EMBASSY REPORT. (COMMENT: WHILE WORTH PURSUING, WE EXPECT SARG STONEWALLING IF WE REQUEST INFORMATION ON MILITARY EXPENDITURES, OIL INCOME, OR OFFICIAL RESERVES.) ¶4. (C) THE PREVIOUS DAY, THE CONTACT HAD ADVISED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WOULD TAKE UMBRAGE AT THE EMBASSY'S (UNCLASSIFIED) ANALYSIS, BECAUSE IT WOULD BE SEEN AS AN "OFFICIAL" CRITICISM OF SYRIA'S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE. SHE PROTESTED THAT THE GOVERNMENT MUST UNDERSTAND THAT EMBASSIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREPARE A BARE MINIMUM OF OBJECTIVE ECONOMIC REPORTING -- AND SAID SHE HAD MADE VERY CLEAR TO SARG CONTACTS THAT SHE WOULD CONSIDER AMENDING HER REPORT IF THEY AGREED TO BACK UP THEIR ASSERTIONS WITH HARD DATA. OUR CONTACT SHOOK HIS HEAD, SAYING "THE SARG DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THAT ANY BUSINESSMEN OR ACADEMIC WOULD HAVE ANY NEED FOR SUCH REPORTS." ECONCHIEF PERSISTED, WONDERING HOW THE SARG COULD FEIGN DISPLEASURE WHEN MOST OF SYRIA'S ECONOMIC SHORTCOMINGS (AND ITS STATISTICAL REPORTING) WERE HIGHLIGHTED EACH YEAR IN THE IMF'S ARTICLE IV REPORT. HE LAUGHED AT OUR NAIVETE AND SAID THAT THE SENIOR LEADERSHIP MAKES NO EFFORT TO READ, MUCH LESS UNDERSTAND, THE IMF REPORTS, WHICH WERE TOO LONG. GETTING THEIR ATTENTION FOR HIS OWN ENDEAVOR, THEREFORE, HE FELT, WAS SOMETHING OF A MIRACLE. CROCKER