BASHAR CONTACT SAYS ASAD'S SON HAS "INDEPENDENT"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000239

NICOSIA FOR ILMG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/09
TAGS: PGOV ECON SY
SUBJECT: BASHAR CONTACT SAYS ASAD'S SON HAS "INDEPENDENT"
INFLUENCE OVER ARMY; ADMITS REGIME IGNORANT
ON ECONOMIC ISSUES

REF: (A) DAMASCUS IIR 6 891 0060 99 (B) 98 DAMASCUS 7639

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RYAN C. CROCKER. REASON 1.5 (B)
AND (D).

BASHAR KNOCKING HEADS IN THE MILITARY
--------------


1. (C) ONE OF OUR CONTACTS WHO SEEMINGLY HAS OPEN CHANNELS
OF COMMUNICATION TO PRESIDENTIAL SON BASHAR AL-ASAD (AND AN
APPARENT AGENDA TO HIGHLIGHT THE REALITIES OF HIS
ASCENDANCE),PROVIDED NEW EVIDENCE OF HIS MENTOR'S
CREDENTIALS ON JANUARY 11.

-- THE CASE OF BASHIR NAJJAR, FORMER GID CHIEF WHO WAS
DISMISSED LAST JULY, HAS BEEN REFERRED TO COURT FOR
PROSECUTION, APPARENTLY FOR CORRUPTION.

-- SMI IS SLOWLY BUT THOROUGHLY BEING CLEANSED OF SMI CHIEF
`ALI DUBA'S MEN, WHO ARE PEPPERED THROUGHOUT THE
ORGANIZATION. THE LATEST AND MOST VISIBLE EXAMPLE WAS AHMAD
`ABUD, WHO OUR SOURCE SAID WAS ONE OF SYRIA'S MOST POWERFUL
MILITARY MEN SIX YEARS AGO (IN CHARGE OF PERSONNEL
ASSIGNMENTS). THREE YEARS AGO, HOWEVER, `ABUD WAS STRIPPED
OF REAL AUTHORITY, AND FINALLY, IN JANUARY, BASHAR ORDERED
HE BE KICKED OUT OF THE MILITARY COMPLETELY.

-- UP TO A "DOZEN OFFICERS" HAVE BEEN ARRESTED IN THE PAST
TWO MONTHS AT BASHAR'S BEHEST. THESE ARRESTS HAD NOTHING TO
DO WITH THE ATTACKS ON THE EMBASSY, RATHER THEY WERE
INTENDED TO SHOW INTOLERANCE FOR CORRUPTION (NOTE: AND
APPARENTLY TO DEMONSTRATE BASHAR'S "TOUGH GUY" CREDENTIALS).
AMONG THOSE ARRESTED, THE HEAD OF SMI'S ADMINISTRATIVE
MISSIONS OFFICE (IDARAT AL-MUHIMMAT),ANOTHER OFFICER
IDENTIFIED AS HASAN AL-`ALI (NOTE: EMBASSY HOLDINGS
IDENTIFY HIM AS THE COMMANDER OF THE ELECTRONIC WARFARE
ACADEMY, A REPORT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH REF A INDICATIONS
THAT THIS INDIVIDUAL HAS BEEN "REMOVED" FROM HIS JOB),AND
ANOTHER OFFICER IDENTIFIED AS H. `ABBAS. (NOTE: WE WILL
ATTEMPT TO INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRM THESE REPORTS OF ARRESTS.)

-- THE HOUSE DEMOLITIONS (REF B) IN SLUNFE AND YA`FUR WERE
ENTIRELY BASHAR'S INITIATIVE.


2. (C) ANOTHER SOURCE WITH EXCELLENT CONNECTIONS IN THE
MILITARY TOLD EMBOFFS JANUARY 13 THAT ALL OF SYRIA'S SENIOR
MILITARY LEADERSHIP PAST RETIREMENT AGE (E.G., `ALI DUBA,
MUSTAFA TALAS),WILL BE REPLACED BY NEXT JULY (IN THE NEXT
ROUND OF PROMTOIONS/RETIREMENTS). OUR SOURCE SAID THE
CHANGES WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT AND UNPARALLELED. HE SAID
THAT, ALTHOUGH ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF `ALI `ASLAN HAD BEEN
GRANTED AN EXTENSION, HE TOO WOULD BE GONE BY JULY. THIS
SOURCE SAID THERE HAD BEEN GREAT SURPRISE (AMONG THE
MILITARY) AT THE LARGE NUMBER OF YOUNGER OFFICERS WHO WERE
FORCED OUT THIS ROUND, AND IMPLIED IT WAS BECAUSE THEY WERE
NOT A GOOD FIT WITH BASHAR.

LEADERSHIP'S ECONOMIC BLINDERS
--------------


3. (C) OUR FIRST CONTACT ALSO CONFIRMED OUR LONG-HELD
SUSPICION THAT THE SYRIAN LEADERSHIP HAS NO REAL SENSE OF
THE ECONOMIC REALITIES OF THE COUNTRY. HE SAID THAT, PARTLY
PRODDED BY DISCUSSIONS WITH ECONCHIEF (ABOUT THE EMBASSY'S
DRAFT REPORT ON SYRIA'S ECONOMY IN 1997/98),HE APPROACHED
SENIOR "POLITICAL" FIGURES (NOTE: USUALLY BASHAR) TO
COMPLAIN THAT SARG DATA IS NOT A COGENT BASIS FOR ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS. HE WAS APPARENTLY GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE
HIS CASE ON THIS POINT AND PROVIDE SUGGESTIONS FOR
IMPROVEMENT. THE CONTACT ALSO SAID HE WAS AUTHORIZED TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DATA TO ENHANCE THE DRAFT EMBASSY REPORT.
(COMMENT: WHILE WORTH PURSUING, WE EXPECT SARG STONEWALLING
IF WE REQUEST INFORMATION ON MILITARY EXPENDITURES, OIL
INCOME, OR OFFICIAL RESERVES.)


4. (C) THE PREVIOUS DAY, THE CONTACT HAD ADVISED THAT THE
GOVERNMENT WOULD TAKE UMBRAGE AT THE EMBASSY'S
(UNCLASSIFIED) ANALYSIS, BECAUSE IT WOULD BE SEEN AS AN
"OFFICIAL" CRITICISM OF SYRIA'S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE. SHE
PROTESTED THAT THE GOVERNMENT MUST UNDERSTAND THAT EMBASSIES
ARE EXPECTED TO PREPARE A BARE MINIMUM OF OBJECTIVE ECONOMIC
REPORTING -- AND SAID SHE HAD MADE VERY CLEAR TO SARG
CONTACTS THAT SHE WOULD CONSIDER AMENDING HER REPORT IF THEY
AGREED TO BACK UP THEIR ASSERTIONS WITH HARD DATA. OUR
CONTACT SHOOK HIS HEAD, SAYING "THE SARG DOES NOT UNDERSTAND
THAT ANY BUSINESSMEN OR ACADEMIC WOULD HAVE ANY NEED FOR
SUCH REPORTS." ECONCHIEF PERSISTED, WONDERING HOW THE SARG
COULD FEIGN DISPLEASURE WHEN MOST OF SYRIA'S ECONOMIC
SHORTCOMINGS (AND ITS STATISTICAL REPORTING) WERE
HIGHLIGHTED EACH YEAR IN THE IMF'S ARTICLE IV REPORT. HE
LAUGHED AT OUR NAIVETE AND SAID THAT THE SENIOR LEADERSHIP
MAKES NO EFFORT TO READ, MUCH LESS UNDERSTAND, THE IMF
REPORTS, WHICH WERE TOO LONG. GETTING THEIR ATTENTION FOR
HIS OWN ENDEAVOR, THEREFORE, HE FELT, WAS SOMETHING OF A
MIRACLE.


CROCKER