TAJIKISTAN: SCENES FROM A BACK-ROOM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALMATY 012359

FROM EMBASSY DUSHANBE

DEPT FOR S/NIS - BEYRLE AND WILSON, EUR/CACEN -
BOND AND LEVINE
DEPT ALSO FOR INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL I2/20/09
TAGS: PGOV PINR TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: SCENES FROM A BACK-ROOM
RESHUFFLE

REF: FBIS RESTON VA 200804Z DEC 99

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE DOUGLAS B. KENT FOR REASON
1.5 (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. PRESIDENT RAHMONOV IS
RESHUFFLINQ HIS CABINET. A CABINET INSIDER
DESCRIBED TO US HOW RAHMONOV, TRUE TO CHARACTER,
IS DOING THIS IN A WAY THAT MAXIMIZES THE
HUMILIATION OF EVERYONE INVOLVED. HIS CHOICE FOR
PRIME MINISTER, THE RELATIVELY UNKNOWN AND
UNINFLUENTIAL OQIL OQILOV, WAS A SURPRISE TO MANY.
SOME SPECULATE THAT RAHMONOV'S MAIN INTEREST WAS
IN APPOINTINQ SOMEONE WHO HASN'T MADE TOO MUCH
MONEY WORKINQ IN THE GOTI. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) GENERAL HABIB SANQINOV, DEPUTY MINISTER OF
INTERIOR IN THE GOTI, SUMMONED EMBASSY SENIOR FSN
DECEMBER 14 TO DISCUSS HIS VIEWS OF PRESIDENT
RAHMONOV'S PLANS FOR RESHUFFLINQ HIS CABINET --
PLANS THAT LED TO THE DECEMBER 20 APPOINTMENT OF
OQIL OQILOV AS THE NEW PRIME MINISTER (REFTEL).


3. (C) SANQINOV DESCRIBED A MEETINQ RAHMONOV HAD
CALLED OF HIS SENIOR DEPUTIES ON OECEMBER 12.
STARTINQ WITH THEN-PRIME MINISTER YAHYO AZIMOV,
RAHMONOV BEQAN TO DISCUSS THE RESHUFFLE'S
IMPLICATIONS FOR THEM. PHYSICALLY CARESSINQ
AZIMOV TO MAXIMIZE THE MAN'S HUMILIATION, RAHMONOV
TOLD AZIMOV HE WOULD NOT BE LEFT WITHOUT A
POSITION IN THE NEW GOVERNMENT (COMMENT: WHAT
THAT WOULD BE, RAHMONOV DID NOT SAY, BUT IT MUST
HAVE BEEN CLEAR TO EVERYONE PRESENT THAT THE PRIME
MINISTER'S JOB WAS NOT WHAT RAHMONOV HAD IN MIND).


4. (C) RAHMONOV THEN ADDRESSED, ONE BY ONE, HIS
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERS, MINISTERS, AND COMMITTEE
CHAIRMEN. RAHMONOV ENCOURAQED SOME, LIKE DEPUTY
PRIME MINISTER ABDURAHMON AZIMOV, TO RUN IN
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS NEXT YEAR. HE TOLD
OTHERS, LIKE BASQUL DODIKHUDOEVA, THAT HE WOULD
FIND SOME SORT OF POSITION IN THE NEXT QOVERNMENT
FOR THEM, ALTHOUQH HE AVOIDED PROMISINQ ANYTHINQ
SPECIFIC. HE HAD NO SUQGESTIONS FOR SOME OTHERS,
SUCH AS ISMAT ESHMIRZOEV -- ALL THEY LEARNED WAS
THAT THEY WOULD SOON BE OUT OF A JOB. OEPUTY
PRIME MINISTERS TURAJONZADA, VAZIROV, AND RASULOV
-- WHO HAVE BEEN IN OFFICE FOR LESS TIME THAN THE
OTHERS -- WILL STAY ON IN THEIR CURRENT POSITIONS.


5. (C) RAHMONOV TOLD HIS CHIEF OF ADMINISTRATION,
MAHMADNAZAR SALIHOV, TO CONSIDER RUNNINQ FOR A
SEAT IN THE NEW PARLIAMENT. SALIHOV -- TRUE TO
HIS NICKNAME, "MR. STUBBORN" -- OBJECTED.
RAHMONOV REBUKED HIM, RESPONDING THAT "WE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHETHER YOU WILL AQREE TO DO SO OR
NOT." ACCORDINQ TO SANQINOV, THE MEETINQ LEFT THE
FATE OF NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARY
AMIRKUL AZIMOV UNKNOWN (NOTE: AZIMOV SERVES AS
RAHMONOV'S TROUBLE-SHOOTER, MOST RECENTLY DURINQ
THE CRISIS CAUSED BY THE ISLAMIC MOVEMENT OF
UZBEKISTAN QUERILLA FORCE OPERATINQ ON
TAJIKISTAN'S TERRITORY AND SEIZINQ KYRQYZ AND
JAPANESE HOSTAQES IN KYRQYZSTAN.)


6. (C) ALSO DISCUSSED AT THE MEETINQ WERE
RAHMONOV'S POLITICAL OPPONENTS. SANQINOV
DESCRIBED A VINDICTIVE RAHMONOV RAILINQ AQAINST
HIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIQN OPPONENT, OAVLAT USMON,
AND HIS WOULD-BE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIQN OPPONENTS,
SULTAN QUVVATOV AND SEYFIDDIN TURAYEV. RAHMONOV
SAID HE PLANNED TO "PURSUE" TURAYEV (COMMENT:
PROBABLY THE MOST POPULAR OF THE THREE) TO THE
POINT WHERE TURAYEV LEFT THE COUNTRY. (COMMENT:
RAHMONOV NEVER MAKES PEACE WITH HIS RIVALS --
ABDUMALIK ABDULLAJANOV, WHO FLED TO UZBEKISTAN, IS
ANOTHER CASE IN POINT).

NEW PRIME MINISTER'S BIODATA
--------------

7. (C) OQIL OQILOV (ALTERNATIVE SPELLINQ: AKIL
AKILOV) WAS BORN IN 1944 IN KHOJAND, LENINABAD
REQION (THE NORTHERN PART OF TAJIKISTAN). AFTER
QRADUATINQ IN CONSTRUCTION ENQINEERINQ FROM A
MOSCOW INSTITUTE, HE WORKED AS A KHOJAND CITY
GOVERNMENT CONSTRUCTION OFFICIAL, EVENTUALLY
BECOMINQ MINISTER OF CONSTRUCTION IN THE
QOVERNMENT OF THE THEN-TAJIK S.S.R. HE REMAINED
IN THE QOVERNMENT THROUQH INDEPENDENCE AND THE
CIVIL WAR. RAHMONOV APPOINTED HIM DEPUTY PRIME
MINISTER IN LATE 1994. HE SERVED IN THIS POSITION
UNTIL RAHMONOV SENT HIM PACKINQ IN 1997. HE
RETURNED TO KHOJAND, WHERE HE WAS APPOINTED DEPUTY
CHAIRMAN OF THE REQIONAL HUKUMAT (GOVERNMENT).

COMMENT
--------------

8. (C) OQILOV'S APPOINTMENT COMES AS A SURPRISE -
- HE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS WELL-KNOW AND LESS
INFLUENTIAL THAN SOME OF THE OTHER INDIVIDUALS WHO
WERE APPARENTLY IN THE RUNNINQ, SUCH AS DUSHANBE
MAYOR AND RAHMONOV CONFIDANT MAHMADSAID
UBAIDULLOEV. LIKE HIS PREDECESSOR, AZIMOV, HE IS
A NORTHERNER, AND HIS REGIONAL IDENTITY PROBABLY
PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN HIS SELECTION, WITH
RAHMONOV KEEPINQ HIS BASE OF SUPPORT BROADER THAN
HIS NATIVE KULYAB REQION IN THE SOUTH.


9. (C) SOME OBSERVERS SPECULATE THAT OQILOV'S
BEINQ OUT OF POWER, AND OUT OF THE CAPITAL, FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME PLAYED IN HIS FAVOR.
RAHMONOV, THEY SAY, WANTED TO APPOINT SOMEONE WHO
HAD NOT MADE AS MUCH MONEY IN QOVERNMENT AS HIS
CURRENT CABINET MEMBERS. TO ILLUSTRATE THE BANDIT
CULTURE PREVAILINQ IN THE RAHMONOV REQIME,
SANQINOV TOLD EMBASSY SENIOR FSN OF A RECENT VISIT
TO DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER ABDURAHMON AZIMOV'S
OFFICE. AS THEY WERE TALKINQ, A TELEPHONE CALL
FROM PRIME MINISTER YAHYO AZIMOV CAME THROUQH. IN
FRONT OF SANQINOV, ABDURAHMON AZIMOV COMPLAINED TO
THE PRIME MINISTER THAT "YOU HAVE BOUQHT ALMOST
HALF OF KHOJAND AND HAVE ENOUQH TO LIVE ON. I
HAVE NOT QOT ANYTHINQ BEHIND ME AND HAVE NO
PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE!"

KENT