SHAHBAZ SHARIF ON NUCLEAR ISSUES, ISLAMIZATION AND POWER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 007870

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/08
TAGS: PGOV PTER MNUC ENRG PK
SUBJECT: SHAHBAZ SHARIF ON NUCLEAR ISSUES, ISLAMIZATION AND POWER

REF: LAHORE 500

CLASSIFIED BY LAHORE PRINCIPAL OFFICER GEOFFREY PYATT, REASON 1.5 (D)

THIS IS LAHORE 572


1. (C) SUMMARY. MEETING OCTOBER 14 WITH VISITING AMBASSADOR
MILAM, PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER SHAHBAZ SHARIF EMPHASIZED HIS
BROTHER'S COMMITMENT TO FINDING COMMON GROUND WITH THE UNITED
STATES ON PROLIFERATION ISSUES, JUSTIFIED THE RECENT REDUCTION OF
ELECTRICITY TARIFFS AS A POLITICAL IMPERATIVE, AND DEFENDED THE
GOVERNMENT'S ISLAMIZATION AMENDMENT AS A POLITICAL TACTIC THAT
WOULD NOT ALTER PAKISTAN'S HISTORICALLY MODERATE COURSE. SHAHBAZ
RECALLED HIS MID-AUGUST MEETINGS WITH DEPUTY SECRETARY TALBOTT
AND OTHER OFFICIALS IN WASHINGTON, AND CLAIMED THAT GOVERNMENT
ACTIONS SINCE THEN HAVE FOLLOWED PRECISELY THE ROADMAP WHICH HE
HAD DISCUSSED. HE PROMISED IMMEDIATE PROGRESS ON EXPORT CONTROLS
BUT INDICATED THAT FURTHER MOVEMENT TOWARDS A FISSILE MATERIAL
CUT-OFF WOULD REQUIRE STEPS TO REDRESS THE INHERENT IMBALANCE OF
THE INDO-PAK SECURITY RELATIONSHIP. IN A BRIEF ONE-ON-ONE, THE
AMBASSADOR RAISED THE OSAMA BIN LADEN ISSUE IN AFGHANISTAN, URGED
SHAHBAZ TO SPEAK TO THE PM ABOUT INCREASING GOP EFFORTS TO
PERSUADE THE TALEBAN TO EXPEL OBL AND ABOUT THE FOREIGN
MINISTRY'S RELUCTANCE TO ALLOW THE AMBASSADOR TO ENGAGE THE PM ON
AFGHANISTAN. SHAHBAZ AGREED TO TALK TO THE PM. END SUMMARY.


THE WAY FORWARD ON NON-PROLIFERATION
--------------


2. (C) AFTER A FOREIGN MINISTRY NOTETAKER WAS ESCORTED OUT OF THE
MEETING, SHAHBAZ SPOKE CANDIDLY AND AT LENGTH ABOUT THE
GOVERNMENT'S PRIORITIES AND ITS HOPES FOR MOVING FORWARD WITH OUR
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP. WE CAN'T CHANGE HISTORY, THE CHIEF
MINISTER LAMENTED, BUT CLEARLY WE NEED TO GET BACK ON COURSE TO
FOCUS ON PAKISTAN'S URGENT SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC NEEDS.


3. (C) RECALLING HIS LATE SUMMER MEETINGS IN WASHINGTON, SHAHBAZ
ARGUED THAT GOP ACTIONS SINCE THEN HAVE FOLLOWED PRECISELY THE
"ROAD MAP" THAT HE HAD DISCUSSED WITH DEPUTY SECRETARY TALBOTT.
WE RECOGNIZE THERE IS MORE FOR US TO DO, SHAHBAZ CONTINUED. SOME
STEPS, SUCH AS ENHANCING EXPORT CONTROLS, WE WOULD TAKE EVEN
WITHOUT YOUR PRESSURE. THIS IS NO PROBLEM AT ALL. OTHER STEPS,
INCLUDING THE FISSILE MATERIAL CUTOFF, REQUIRE THAT WE FIRST
DETERMINE HOW TO ACHIEVE MINIMUM DETERRENCE VIS-A-VIS INDIA. WE
NEED TO REMEMBER THAT INDIA IS THE AGGRESSOR WHICH STARTED THE
CYCLE OF NUCLEAR TESTING. IT FRUSTRATES US, SHAHBAZ ADDED, THAT
FRIENDS LIKE THE UNITED STATES SOMETIMES APPEAR TO OVERLOOK THIS
BASIC FACT. WE HAVE TO KEEP WORKING IN GENEVA, BUT UNCONDITIONAL
PAKISTANI ADHERENCE TO THE FMCT IS A PROBLEM. WE MUST FIND A WAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR STOCKPILES AND BRING SOME FORM OF PARITY TO OUR
SECURITY RELATIONSHIP WITH INDIA, SHAHBAZ CONCLUDED.


4. (C) THE UNITED STATES UNDERSTANDS THAT THERE ARE THREE
PARTNERS IN THESE DELIBERATIONS, AMBASSADOR MILAM RESPONDED. BUT
WE THINK FMCT IS THE RIGHT WAY FORWARD. BOTH PAKISTAN AND INDIA
NEED TO BRING TRANSPARENCY TO THEIR NUCLEAR POLICIES. SHAHBAZ
AGAIN CAME BACK TO THE POLITICS OF THE NON-PROLIFERATION DEBATE.
NAWAZ SHARIF MUST BE SEEN TO BE DEFENDING PAKISTAN'S SUPREME
NATIONAL INTERESTS. FOR THAT REASON, SHAHBAZ ARGUED, WHATEVER
STEPS ARE REQUIRED AND WHATEVER INDUCEMENTS THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY PROVIDES MUST BE VIEWED AS EQUITABLE AND FAIR.


SOUTH ASIA'S KOSOVO
--------------


5. (C) SHAHBAZ TURNED TO THE BROADER ISSUE OF INDO-PAK RELATIONS,
NOTING THAT "WE'D BE LIVING IN A FOOLS PARADISE" TO SEEK PROGRESS
ON NON-PROLIFERATION WHILE IGNORING THE CONFRONTATION OVER
KASHMIR. THIS WAS NOT WHAT INDIA AND PAKISTAN WERE MEANT TO BE,
SHAHBAZ CONTINUED, FIGHTING PROXY WARS AND SQUANDERING EACH
OTHER'S ECONOMIC RESOURCES. LOOK AT TRADE. THINK HOW MUCH WE
COULD SAVE IF PAKISTAN WERE ABLE TO BUY COAL FROM INDIAN MINES
INSTEAD OF IMPORTING IT FROM THE AMERICAS. BUT THAT'S JUST NOT
POSSIBLE UNDER PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES. WE CAN MOVE THE
RELATIONSHIP TO A NEW LEVEL, BUT WE NEED YOU TO THROW YOUR WEIGHT
BEHIND A SETTLEMENT OF THE KASHMIR DISPUTE. AS YOU HAVE DONE
WITH THE CONFLICT IN KOSOVO, THE UNITED STATES MUST BRING IT'S
AUTHORITY TO BEAR ON THE KASHMIR DISPUTE.


THE POWER IMBROGLIO
--------------


6. (C) AMBASSADOR MILAM RAISED THE ISSUE OF INDEPENDENT POWER
PROVIDERS (IPP'S),NOTING OUR PUZZLEMENT ABOUT THE REDUCTION IN
CONSUMER ELECTRICITY RATES COMING IN THE MIDST OF DIFFICULT
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE IMF. WE HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO REDUCE
ELECTRICITY TARIFFS, SHAHBAZ INSISTED. FROM KHYBER TO KARACHI,
PAKISTANIS WERE CLAMORING FOR RELIEF FROM UTILITY BILLS THAT WERE
CONSUMING A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THEIR DISPOSABLE INCOMES. PEOPLE
HAVE TO BE ABLE TO MEET THEIR BASIC NEEDS. THIS GOVERNMENT HAS
NO INTENTION OF REVERSING THE MARKET-ORIENTED DIRECTION THAT THE
PRIME MINISTER SET IN HIS FIRST MONTHS; THAT'S NOT EVEN AN
PEOPLE A SENSE OF HOPE.


THE FIFTEENTH AMENDMENT
--------------


7. (U) AS THE CONVERSATION DREW TO A CLOSE, THE CHIEF MINISTER
RAISED THE GOVERNMENT'S CONTROVERSIAL CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT ON
ISLAMIZATION. YOU HAVEN'T BROUGHT IT UP, SO I WILL, SHAHBAZ
NOTED. THERE SHOULD BE NO DOUBT ABOUT THIS GOVERNMENT'S WESTERN,
LIBERAL ORIENTATION. THAT'S WHY I'VE BEEN WEARING ALL MY OLD
WESTERN BUSINESS SUITS, HE JOKED, INSTEAD OF THE SHALWAR THAT
MOST PAKISTANI POLITICIANS TREAT AS THEIR UNIFORM. SHAHBAZ ALSO
DREW ATTENTION HIS OCTOBER 14 SPEECH AT A WOMEN'S ASSOCIATION
MEETING IN LAHORE WHERE HE HIGHLIGHTED THE ROLE THAT FEMALE
MANAGERS, ADMINISTRATORS AND SCIENTISTS MUST PLAY IN PAKISTAN'S
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN WE THINK OF DEVELOPMENT INVOLVING WOMEN
WHO WEAR A VEIL OR SIT AT HOME, SHAHBAZ ASKED IN HIS SPEECH.
IT'S SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE.


8. (U) THERE SHOULD BE NO MISUNDERSTANDING ABOUT OUR REASONS FOR
ADVANCING THE 15TH AMENDMENT, SHAHBAZ CONTINUED. AFTER WESTERN
PRESSURE ON CTBT AND THE AIR STRIKES ON AFGHANISTAN, THE
RELIGIOUS PARTIES WERE RIDING HIGH. BUT THIS ONE ACTION OF
INTRODUCING THE ISLAMIZATION AMENDMENT HAS TAKEN THE WIND OUT OF
THEIR SAILS.


9. (C) IN A BRIEF ONE-ON-ONE THE AMBASSADOR MENTIONED HIS
INCREASING PREOCCUPATION WITH AFGHANISTAN, AND ESPECIALLY THE
ISSUE OF THE TALEBAN HARBORING OSAMA BIN LADEN. THIS IS A VERY
BIG ISSUE TO THE U.S., AND OUR SENSE IS THAT, PERHAPS, WITH ADDED
PUSH THE U.S., PAKISTAN AND SAUDI ARABIA CAN PERSUADE THE TALEBAN
TO EXPEL OBL. WE NEED A STRONGER PUSH ON THIS BY THE GOP. THE
AMBASSADOR HAD TRIED TO SEE THE PM ON THIS BUT WAS BEING SCREENED
OFF BY THE FOREIGN MINISTRY. THE AMBASSADOR ASKED SHAHBAZ TO
TALK TO THE PM ABOUT THIS. THE CHIEF MINISTER SAID HE WOULD.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) IN BOTH THIS MEETING AND A SUBSEQUENT LUNCH WITH HIS
SENIOR ADVISORS, SHAHBAZ DISPLAYED THE MIXTURE OF IMPATIENCE AND
REFORMIST ZEAL THAT HAVE BECOME HIS HALLMARK. COMPARED EVEN TO
THE LAST MEETING WITH HIM IN LATE AUGUST (REFTEL),WE FOUND HIM
MORE CONVERSANT AND MORE WILLING TO VENTURE AN OPINION ON THE
SECURITY ISSUES THAT FORM THE CORE OF THE U.S.-PAKISTAN BILATERAL
RELATIONSHIP. IMPLICIT IN THE SCOPE OF OUR TWO HOUR CONVERSATION
AND LUNCH WAS AN UNDERSTANDING THAT WITHOUT PROGRESS ON NON-
PROLIFERATION AND THE RELATED SANCTIONS, THE EXPERIMENT IN LOCAL
GOVERNMENT REFORM THAT SHAHBAZ HAS LAUNCHED IN PUNJAB (LIKE THE
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ITSELF) MAY COME CRASHING TO THE GROUND. END
COMMENT.


MILAM