LEBANESE PARLIAMENT ELECTS ARMY COMMANDER EMILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 003820

PARIS FOR LEAF
NICOSIA FOR ERDMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL 10/01/08
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PREL LE
SUBJECT: LEBANESE PARLIAMENT ELECTS ARMY COMMANDER EMILE
LAHUD AS PRESIDENT

REFS: A) STATE 190962 B) DAMASCUS 6387


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR DAVID M. SATTERFIELD.
REASONS 1.5 (B AND D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: RATIFYING THE NAME WHICH EMERGED FROM LAST
WEEK'S SUMMIT BETWEEN LEBANESE PRESIDENT HRAWI AND SYRIAN
PRESIDENT ASAD, THE LEBANESE PARLIAMENT TODAY ELECTED LAF
COMMANDER EMILE LAHUD AS LEBANON'S ELEVENTH PRESIDENT BY A
QUASI-UNANIMOUS VOTE OF 118 (AND 10 ABSTENTIONS). WHILE
UNDER PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES NO PRESIDENT COULD BE CHOSEN
WITHOUT DAMASCUS' BLESSING, LAHUD APPEARS TO BE A GENUINE
NATIONAL CONSENSUS CANDIDATE -- WITH MOST LEBANESE TAKING
HOPE FROM LAHUD'S REPUTATION AS THE CORRUPTION-FREE
REBUILDER OF A DECONFESSIONALIZED NATIONAL ARMY AND ABOVE
ALL, A LEADER FROM OUTSIDE THE LARGELY DISCREDITED POLITICAL
CLASS. WITH MONTHS OF FEVERED SPECULATION OVER THE IDENTITY
OF THEIR NEXT PRESIDENT NOW ENDED, AN EQUALLY INTENSE FOCUS
WILL NOW TURN ON LAHUD'S POLITICAL PROGRAM AND THE
COMPOSITION OF THE NEXT GOVERNMENT. LAHUD AND HIS SOON-TO-
BE COLLEAGUES IN THE TRIPARTITE PRESIDENCY, PM HARIRI AND
SPEAKER BERRI, WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE THEIR OWN IDEAS ABOUT
THE NEW GOVERNMENT SHOULD RUN -- AS WILL DAMASCUS.
EXPECTATIONS OF POSITIVE CHANGE ARE RUNNING HIGH HERE, AS IS
SKEPTICISM OVER WHETHER ANY OF THE PARTIES CONCERNED TRULY
WANT TO SEE SUCH CHANGE TAKE PLACE. OUR CONTINUED PUBLIC
AND PRIVATE EMPHASIS ON STRENGTHENING LEBANON'S INSTITUTIONS
AND GOOD GOVERNANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT, BUT WHETHER LEBANESE
(AND OUR OWN) HOPES WILL BE FULFILLED REMAINS VERY MUCH TO
BE SEEN. END SUMMARY.

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT: WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY (IN
DAMASCUS) MAKES


3. (C) MONTHS OF INTENSE SPECULATION AMONG LEBANON'S
POLITICAL ELITES REGARDING THE IDENTITY OF THE NEXT
PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC WERE ENDED WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT
LATE ON OCTOBER 5 -- FOLLOWING PRESIDENT HRAWI'S SUMMIT WITH
SYRIAN PRESIOENT ASAD -- THAT ARTICLE 49 OF THE LEBANESE
CONSTITUTION WAS TO BE AMENDED TO PERMIT SENIOR GOVERNMENT
OFFICIALS (LAF COMMANDING GENERAL EMILE LAHUD, FOR EXAMPLE)
TO BE ELECTED PRESIDENT. WHILE HRAWI CERTAINLY WAS SEEKING
ASAD'S APPROVAL FOR AN AMENDMENT TO ARTICLE 49, IN HIS CASE
TO PERMIT ANOTHER EXTENSION IN OFFICE, THE GENERAL CAME AWAY
THE WINNER.


4. (C) COMMENT: ARTICLE 49 WAS ADDED AT THE TIME OF THE
TAIF ACCORD TO PRECLUDE THE POSSIBLE CANDIDACY OF THEN
(REBEL) LAF COMMANDER LTG MICHEL AOUN. IRONICALLY, TODAY'S
VOTE COINCIDED WITH THE ANNIVERSARY OF AOUN'S FORCED
DEPARTURE FROM LEBANON'S PRESIDENTIAL PALACE AT THE HANDS OF
THE SYRIAN MILITARY AND THEIR LEBANESE ALLIES (EN ROUTE TO
ULTIMATE EXILE IN FRANCE) ON 13 OCTOBER 199O. AOUN TOLD THE
PRESS IN PARIS THAT HE IS PREPARED TO RETURN TO LEBANON
SHOULD LAHUD MAKE THE REQUEST -- AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. END
COMMENT.


5. (C) ACTING IN RECORD TIME AND WITH A VIGOR USUALLY
UNKNOWN HERE, PRESIDENT HRAWI AND THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS
PROMPTLY SENT TO THE PARLIAMENT THE REQUISITE AMENDMENT OF
ARTICLE 49 WHICH WOULD PERMIT "FOR ONE TIME ONLY" AND ON AN
EXCEPTIONAL BASIS THE CANDIDACY OF A SENIOR CIVIL SERVANT.
MP BOUTROS HARB, A MEMBER OF THE JUDICIAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE
COMMITTEE OF PARLIAMENT AND A DECLARED PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE, VOTED AGAINST THE AMENDMENT IN COMMITTEE. LEGAL
ANALYSTS, INCLUDING A MEMBER OF LEBANON'S CONSTITUTIONAL
COUNCIL, TOLD EMBOFFS THAT THE DEBATE CENTERED ON WHETHER
THE ONE-TIME EXCEPTION CLAUSE PROPOSED BY HRAWI WAS
SUFFICIENT TO NULLIFY THE REQUIREMENT, EMBODIED IN LEBANESE
ELECTORAL LAW, THAT THE CANDIDATE MUST HAVE BEEN OUT OF
ACTIVE MILITARY DUTY FOR AT LEAST SIX MONTHS. SINCE THE
AMENDMENT WAS NOT SUBJECT TO REVIEW BY CONSTITUTIONAL
COUNCIL, THE POINT BECAME MOOT (ASSUMING THAT, UNDER THE
CIRCUMSTANCES, CONSTITUTIONAL SUBSTANCE AS OPPOSED TO FORM
WAS EVER AT ISSUE) WHEN THE PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE APPROVED
IT ON 12 OCTOBER.


6. (U) ON 14 OCTOBER THE FULL PARLIAMENT PASSED THE
AMENDMENT BY A VOTE OF 113 TO 4 AGAINST (WITH 11 ABSTENTIONS
-- COMPRISED MOSTLY OF DRUZE LEADER WALID JUMBLATT'S
PROGRESSIVE SOCIALIST PARTY AND ITS ALLIES). FORMER PRIME
MINISTER, MP OMAR KARAME, CONTINUED HIS TWO-YEAR BOYCOTT OF
PARLIAMENTARY SESSIONS AND REFUSED TO ATTEND THE SESSION
DESPITE HIS PERSONAL SUPPORT FOR GENERAL LAHUD. (COMMENT:
THE HASTY AMENDMENT PROCESS DID HAVE ONE POSITIVE OUTCOME:
IT BROUGHT PM HARIRI AND SPEAKER BERRI TO TALK WITH EACH
OTHER FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY MONTHS. THE UNVEILING OF A
STATUE OF LEBANON'S FIRST PRIME MINISTER AND INDEPENDENCE
HERO, RIYAD SOLH, ON 14 OCTOBER, ALSO PROVIDED AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TWO POLITICAL FOES TO COME TOGETHER,
THIS TIME TO BASH THE TURKS (RECALLING OTTOMAN HEGEMONY AND
OPPRESSION OF LEBANESE PATRIOTS SUCH AS AL-SOLH). END
COMMENT.)


7. (U) MP NASSIB LAHUD, AN UNDECLARED CONTENDER FOR THE
PRESIDENCY, ARGUED FOR SIMPLY ABOLISHING THE PROBLEMATIC
CLAUSES OF ARTICLE 49 RATHER THAN ADD A "ONE-TIME ONLY"
PROVISION WHICH IN HIS VIEW WEAKENED THE CONSTITUTION. "BY
AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION FOR ONE TIME ONLY AND
EXCEPTIONALLY ON THE EVE OF EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, IS
A STATE OF LAW AND INSTITUTIONS BEING BUILT?" HE TOLD THE
PRESS (A SENTIMENT OTHER POLITICIANS AND ANALYSTS HERE HAVE
EXPRESSED TO US PRIVATELY.) HOWEVER, LAHUD, ESTRANGED
COUSIN OF EMILE, SUBSEQUENTLY INDICATED HIS INTENTION TO
VOTE FOR THE GENERAL.

ELECTION DAY ATMOSPHERICS: A GOOD TIME HAD BY ALL


8. (U) THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS WERE SUMMONED TO ATTEND THE
ELECTORAL SESSION OF PARLIAMENT AT 110O ON 15 OCTOBER. WITH
ALL BUT TEN (MOSTLY ALLIES OF DRUZE LEADER AND MINISTER OF
DISPLACED WALID JUMBLATT) OF THE 128 DEPUTIES IN THEIR
SEATS, SPEAKER NABIH BERRI MADE THIS TRAIN RUN ON TIME. A
SHOUT OF "WHY CAN'T WE JUST DECLARE THIS THING DONE" WAS MET
BY MIXED LAUGHTER AND CRIES OF "GIVES US THE BALLOTS."
AFTER COLLECTION OF THE SEALED UNMARKED ENVELOPES CONTAINING
THE MPS' CHOICE, DEPUTY SPEAKER FERZLI OPENED EACH AND READ
ALOUD (118 TIMES) THE NAME "EMILE LAHUD." THIS PROCESS
ELICITED STILL MORE GALES OF LAUGHTER AND BANTERING ON THE
FLOOR, WITH BERRI AT ONE POINT ORDERING FERZLI TO "SPEED IT
UP." AT 11:25, EMILE LAHUD WAS DECLARED THE PRESIDENT-
ELECT. AS THE DIPLOMATS AND DEPUTIES DECAMPED, FRENCH
AMBASSADOR JOUANNEAU SUMMED UP THE PROCEEDINGS FOR THOSE
PRESENT BY DRYLY NOTING "QUELLE SURPRISE."

HOPES FOR LAHUD


9. (C) WHILE MOST LEBANESE RESENT SYRIAN DIRECTION OF THE
ELECTORAL PROCESS AND THE HASTY CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT,
THERE IS NEAR (AND TO US GENUINE) CONSENSUS SUPPORT FOR
GENERAL LAHUD AS LEBANON'S NEXT PRESIDENT -- AND AS A
CATALYST FOR MUCH-NEEDED CHANGE. THERE ARE EXCEPTIONS AND
CAVEATS IN THIS SUPPORT, HOWEVER. JUMBLATT AND HIS DRUZE
ALLIES REMAIN DEEPLY SUSPICIOUS OF THE MILITARY AND HIS
RELATIONS WITH LAHUD CAN BE EXPECTED TO BE (AT BEST)
PROBLEMATIC. WHILE MOST MARONITES SEE LAHUD AS AMONG THE
BEST OF THE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES (THEIR HEARTS WERE WITH
NASSIB LAHUD OR BUTROS HARB) AND FAR SUPERIOR TO THE LIKES
OF JEAN OBEYD OR ELIE HOBEIQA, THERE IS A RESERVOIR OF
CONCERN THAT SYRIA WILL NOW DICTATE THE CHOICE OF LAHUD'S
SUCCESSOR IN THE LAF AND WILL THUS HAVE BOTH THE PRESIDENT
AND ARMY CHIEF BEHOLDEN TO THEIR WILL.


10. (C) ALTHOUGH FORMER PRESIDENT CHARLES HELOU TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR ON 14 OCTOBER THAT HE VIEWED A LAHUD PRESIDENCY
WITH GREAT OPTIMISM, MANY FROM HIS POLITICAL GENERATION
RECALL THE REIGN OF PRESIDENT FOUAD SHEHAB (ALSO LAF
COMMANDER BEFORE HIS ELECTION) WHOSE USE OF THE LAF G-2 TO
MONITOR AND SHAPE POLITICAL DECISIONS WAS WIDELY RESENTED
AND FEARED. DESPITE SUCH RESERVATIONS, FROM HIZBALLAH TO
THE MARONITE LEAGUE, LAHUD HAS A WIDE BODY OF SUPPORT ACROSS
CONFESSIONAL LINES AND AMONG THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY. KEY
LEADERS IN THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT, NOTABLY PM HARIRI, HAVE
BEEN QUICK TO PLEDGE PUBLICLY THEIR DESIRE TO COOPERATE WITH
THE NEW PRESIDENT.

ITS THE ECONOMY, STUPID (AND THE SOCIETY, AND POLITICS)


11. (C) THE UNANSWERED QUESTION HERE IS WHAT, PRECISELY,
THE NEW PRESIDENT INTENDS TO DO WITH THIS SUPPORT. LEBANON
FACES A VARIETY OF SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES: THE NEED FOR
URGENT ECONOMIC REFORMS, AN ALMOST WHOLLY DISCREDITED AND
CORRUPT SPOILS SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT AND CONTINUING DRIFT IN
SEARCH OF A NEW, POST-CIVIL WAR IDENTITY AND SENSE OF
NATIONHOOD. NOT ONE OF LEBANON'S MANY POLITICIANS,
ECONOMISTS OR JOURNALISTS CLAIM TO KNOW WHAT IS IN LAHUD'S
MIND OR WHETHER, IN FACT, HE HAS A PROGRAM FOR GOVERNANCE.
THE ROLE AND AUTHORITY OF THE POST-TAIF PRESIDENT IS ITSELF
AMBIGUOUS. UNLIKE THE PRIME MINISTER AND SPEAKER OF THE
PARLIAMENT, WHO HAVE CLEARLY DEFINED EXECUTIVE AND
LEGISLATIVE POWERS AND PREROGATIVES, THE PRESIDENT -- BY THE
TEXT OF THE CONSTITUTION -- PLAYS A LARGELY SYMBOLIC ROLE.
PERSONAL CORRUPTION, LACK OF INTEREST AND LIMITED
CREDIBILITY AS A NATIONAL OR INTERNATIONAL STATESMAN
RENDERED CURRENT PRESIDENT HRAWI UNFIT OR UNABLE TO TAKE ON
ANY LARGER, MORE EFFECTIVE RESPONSIBILITIES. MANY HERE
ARGUE THAT LAHUD CAN INDEED ASSUME A SIGNIFICANT ROLE AS AN
EXEMPLAR OF PERSONAL ETHICS IN GOVERNMENT AND, BUILDING ON
HIS SUCCESS WITH THE LAF, IN REBUILDING AND REINFORCING THE
INSTITUTIONS OF GOVERNMENT.


12. (C) ASSUMING THAT LAHUD DOES HAVE A CONCEPT OF WHAT HE
WISHES TO DO AS PRESIDENT (THERE ARE SOME WHO ASSERT THAT
LAHUD WANTS VERY MUCH TO BE PRESIDENT, BUT DOES NOT HAVE A
CLEAR VISION OF WHAT HE WILL DO ONCE THERE),HE WILL FACE A
FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE IN THE PERSON OF PM HARIRI -- WHO IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO CONTINUE AS PRIME MINISTER -- TO ANY
ATTEMPT TO ACT IN A MANNER WHICH HARIRI WILL VIEW AS
THREATENING HIS OWN PREEMINENCE. FOR ALL HARIRI'S TALK OF
SUPPORT FOR LAHUD AS "A STRONG PRESIDENT," THE CLEAR SUBTEXT
IS "STRONG PRESIDENT, YES" BUT AS AN ASSET FOR HARIRI'S USE
TO COUNTER SPEAKER BERRI. THE PM TOLD AMBASSADOR SHORTLY
BEFORE THE ELECTION THAT "I HOPE LAHUD WILL BE AN ALLY. BUT
IF HE THINKS HE CAN DICTATE TO ME ON HOW A NEW GOVERNMENT
WILL BE FORMED OR TRIES TO BLOCK ME, I WILL CRUSH HIM."


13. (C) FOR HIS PART, BERRI WANTS A NEW GOVERNMENT COMPOSED
OF PARLIAMENTARIANS. FORMER SPEAKER HUSSEIN HUSSEINI -- NO
FRIEND OF BERRI BUT LOYAL TO THE PARLIAMENT AND ITS ROLE --
TOLD THE AMBASSADOR ON 14 OCTOBER THAT HE, TOO, FAVORED A
GOVERNMENT OF DEPUTIES REPRESENTING ALL CONFESSIONS "IN THE
SPIRIT OF TAIF." THIS IS IN CONTRAST, HUSSEINI SAID, TO THE
KNOWN INTENT OF THE PRIME MINISTER TO CREATE A CABINET OF
"TECHNOCRATS."

SYRIA: WHAT DOES ASAD WANT?


14. (C) EMBASSY DAMASCUS' EXCELLENT DISCUSSION (REFTEL) OF
THE VARYING INTERPRETATIONS POSSIBLE FOR SELECTION OF LAHUD
MATCHES OUR OWN (AND OUR INTERLOCUTORS) UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
DAMASCUS SEES IN LAHUD A STABILIZING FORCE IN THE BEST SENSE
(STRENGTHENED POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION) OR THE WORST
(LAHUD AS YET ANOTHER PLAYER TO BE MANIPULATED IN ORDER TO
PREVENT EMERGENCE OF ANY INDEPENDENT AND THUS THREATENING --
TO SYRIA -- LEBANESE POLITY). THOSE WHO BELIEVE THE LATTER,
E.G. MINISTER HOBEIQA, STATE FLATLY THAT THE SYRIANS WILL
CONTROL THE OVERALL PROCESS OF FORMING A NEW GOVERNMENT --
WHICH WILL MERELY BE A "RESHUFFLING" OF THE MINISTERIAL
DOSSIERS RATHER THAN ANY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN APPROACH TO
GOVERNANCE IN LEBANON. HOBEIQA TOLD THE AMBASSADOR ON 9
OCTOBER THAT HE RECOGNIZED THAT "THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
SYRIA," BUT BELIEVED THAT IS PRECISELY WHY THE SYRIANS WANT
A PRESIDENT LIKE LAHUD WHO HAS PROVEN HIMSELF PREDICTABLE,
AND RELIABLE AS AN ALLY TO ASAD'S SON BASHAR IN DAYS TO
COME. HOBEIQA (SPEAKING HERE FOR A WIDE SPECTRUM OF
LEBANON'S POLITICAL CLASS) DID NOT THINK LAHUD HAD THE
EXPERIENCE NEED TO BRING ABOUT CHANGE. "WHO MAKES CHANGE
HERE?," HOBEIQA ASKED SARCASTICALLY. "I HOPE THE GENERAL IS
A GOOD TACTICIAN. I AM SURE HE IS NOT. PEOPLE SAY HE IS A
GOOD GENERAL. WHAT DOES IT MEAN? HE NEVER HAD TO FIGHT,
AND HE WILL FACE TESTS AHEAD."


15. (C) MOST LEBANESE HOPE LAHUD'S LEADERSHIP WILL MARK AN
END TO THE SQUABBLING, INEFFECTIVE GOVERNMENT OF THE
"TROIKA" (I.E., THE PRESIDENT, PRIME MINISTER, AND SPEAKER).
INDEED, REPORTS ARE CIRCULATING HERE THAT THE SYRIANS,
PARTICULARLY ASAD HIMSELF, DO NOT WANT TO CONTINUE RECEIVING
STREAMS OF LEBANESE VISITORS PLEADING THEIR CASES AND
PROBLEMS IN DAMASCUS. LAHUD MAY WELL PUT AN END TO SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY (JUST AS HE FORBADE JUNIOR OFFICERS TO HAVE
CONTACT WITH THE SYRIANS OUTSIDE OF LEBANON). BUT HERE
AGAIN, THERE IS A DARKER READING OF SYRIAN INTENTIONS FROM
SOME OF LEBANON'S MOST ASTUTE ANALYSTS, INCLUDING
EDITORIALIST SARKIS NAOUM AND FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER FOUAD
BUTROS. THEY ARE CONVINCED THAT BEYOND HIS PROVEN RECORD AS
A DEPENDABLE PARTNER TO SYRIA AND AN ASSET FOR THE FUTURE,
SYRIA CHOSE LAHUD BECAUSE HE REPRESENTED THE MOST POTENT
COUNTERWEIGHT THAT COULD BE POSED AGAINST HARIRI -- WHOSE
PERCEIVED INDEPENDENCE NEEDED A MORE EFFECTIVE BALANCE THAN
HRAWI COULD PROVIDE. THEY ASSERT "LAHUD IS SEEN BY THE
SYRIANS AS AN ANTI-HARIRI."


16. (C) COMMENT: WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR US? LAHUD
REMAINS A POLITICAL ENIGMA AND SYRIAN INTENTIONS IN
PERMITTING HIS ELECTION -- ALBEIT TO POPULAR ACCLAIM -- ARE
EVEN HARDER TO READ. MUCH OF THE SKEPTICISM PREVALENT HERE
IS WORTH TAKING ON BOARD, BUT LAHUD WILL STILL HAVE SOME
TIME TO NAME A NEW GOVERNMENT AND ELABORATE HIS PROGRAM.
WHETHER THIS WILL AMOUNT TO THE FORMATION OF A "THIRD
REPUBLIC" CHARACTERIZED BY MORE EFFECTIVE GOVERNMENT AND
LESS VENAL POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, OR MORE OF THE SAME SORT OF
TURF BATTLES BETWEEN MEMBERS OF THE TROIKA REMAINS TO BE
SEEN. WE CLEARLY HAVE AN INTEREST IN THE FORMER. THE
DEPARTMENT STATEMENT WELCOMING LAHUD'S ELECTION AND
EXPRESSING OUR HOPE THAT GOOD GOVERNANCE AND STRENGTHENING
OF INSTITUTIONS WILL MARK HIS TENURE MAKES THE RIGHT POINTS.
WE WILL BE PRESSING THOSE SAME THEMES IN OUR OWN DIALOGUE
WITH LAHUD AND IN OUR ONGOING DISCUSSIONS WITH HIS FUTURE
COLLEAGUES BERRI AND HARIRI. END COMMENT

SATTERFIELD