ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM, IRAN, AND NIGER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NIAMEY 005135 PARIS FOR MORAN; LONDON FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/07 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID SOCI NG IR KISL SUBJECT: ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM, IRAN, AND NIGER REF: NIAMEY 3264 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR CHARLES O. CECIL. REASON: 1.5(D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MOST NIGERIENS BELIEVE ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM CONSTITUTES A LONG-TERM THREAT TO THE SECULAR STATE ESTABLISHED UNDER NIGER'S CONSTITUTION. IRAN IS WORKING QUIETLY AND WITH SIGNIFICANT RESOURCES TO PROMOTE SHI'ISM IN NIGER. SHIA RELIGIOUS LEADERS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA ARE ALSO A FORCE FOR CONSERVATISM IN THE MARADI AREA OF NIGER. GON OFFICIALS ARE SUSPICIOUS OF IRAN, BUT FOR THE MOMENT TOLERATE ITS PRESENCE AND ITS ACTIVITIES, PROBABLY IN THE HOPE OF RECEIVING ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE FROM THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT IN THE FUTURE. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE GON IS DETERMINED TO TAKE STRONG ACTIONS AGAINST THE EXPRESSION OF FUNDAMENTALIST, SHIA DOCTRINES WITH THE AIM OF MINIMIZING NIGERIAN INFLUENCE IN NIGERIEN RELIGIOUS CIRCLES. POVERTY AND DESPAIR MAY BE A GREATER SOURCE OF CONSERVATIVE AND FUNDAMENTALIST TENDENCIES IN NIGER THAN EITHER OF THESE TWO OUTSIDE INFLUENCES, BUT TNE OUTSIDE INFLUENCES CAN REINFORCE SOCIAL AND RELIGIOUS TRENDS ALREADY UNDER WAY. REDUCING NIGER'S POVERTY IS LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE WAY TO HALT THE SPREAD OF FUNDAMENTALIST IDEAS IN NIGER. END SUMMARY. -------------- IS ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM A THREAT TO NIGER? -------------- ¶2. (C) "EXTREME POVERTY IS A GREATER CAUSE OF ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM THAN IRANIAN EFFORTS," SAID FORMER PRIME MINISTER HAMA AMADOU TO AMBASSADOR CECIL OVER LUNCH ON OCTOBER 23. "WHETHER FUNDAMENTALISM GROWS OR NOT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE GOVERNMENT MAKES PROGRESS IN COMBATTING POVERTY," ADDED AMADOU. IN NIGER'S CURRENT POSITION (NUMBER 173 OUT OF 175 COUNTRIES) ON THE UNDP'S 1997 REPORT ON HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, ONE WOULD HAVE TO CONCLUDE THAT NIGER IS ONE OF THE MOST FERTILE GROUNDS ONE COULD FIND FOR FUNDAMENTALISM TO TAKE ROOT. ¶3. (U) GON OFFICIALS TAKE THE THREAT OF FUNDAMENTALISM SERIOUSLY; A NUMBER OF OFFICIALS HAVE EXPRESSED THEIR DETERMINATION THAT IT NOT SPREAD. MARADI AND ITS NEIGHBOR GUIDAN-ROUMDJI ARE CONSIDERED TO BE THE CENTER OF FUNDAMENTALIST TENDENCIES IN NIGER; SOME MUSLIMS IN THAT AREA CONSIDER TNEMSELVES SHI'ITES. ACCORDING TO THE FORMER PREFET OF MARADI, LTC MALLAM OUBANDAWAKI, FUNDAMENTALIST MOVEMENTS IN NIGER DATE FROM THE 1980S. (OBVIOUSLY THE COLONEL WAS THINKING IN MODERN TERMS OF REFERENCE. MANY HISTORIANS QE THE REFORM MOVEMENT LED BY OUSMANE DAN FODIO IN NORTHERN NIGERIA AROUND 1800 AS A FUNDAMENTALIST MOVEMENT, THAT IS, A RETURN TO THE LITERAL INTERPRETATION OF THE KORAN AND ITS STRICT APPLICATION TO DAILY LIFE.) IN THE 1990S THESE EARLIER FUNDAMENTALIST TENDENCIES HAVE BECOME MORE VIGOROUS, SAID THE COLONEL, PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE WAVE OF DEMOCRATIZATION SWEEPING THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. OUBANDAWAKI CONSIDERS THE ORIGIN OF THESE FUNDAMENTALIST TENDENCIES TO BE NORTHERN NIGERIA, WHERE CERTAIN RELIGIOUS LEADERS ARE DIRECTING A CONSCIOUS CAMPAIGN TO SPREAD THEIR VERSION OF ISLAM INTO NIGER. THE OBJECTIVE OF THE FUNDAMENTALISTS, IN THE COLONEL'S VIEW, IS TO ESTABLISH AN ISLAMIC STATE IN WHICN SHARIA LAW IS THE LAW OF THE LAND. ¶4. (U) MINISTER OF INTERIOR IDI ANGO OMAR, IN JANUARY, TRACED THE RISE OF FUNDAMENTALISM IN NIGER BACK TO 1989. PUTTING HIS OWN SPECIAL TWIST ON IT, HE ACCUSED THE FUNDAMENTALISTS OF BEING INCLINED TO USE VIOLENCE TO SPREAD THEIR VIEWS, AND ACCUSED THEM OF WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE OPPOSITION TO PRESIDENT BARE, WHICH WAS AT THE TIME PREPARING A SERIES OF PUBLIC DEMONSTRATIONS TO MARK THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF THE BARE COUP. ¶5. (C) FORMER GENDARMERIE COMMAWDER GENERAL YOUSOUFA MAIGA, NOW AMBASSADOR TO ALGERIA, EXPRESSED TO THE AMBASSADOR HIS OWN CONCERN OVER FUWDAMENTALISM, CITING IRANIAN ADVERTISEMENTS AND ACTIVITIES, PLUS AN EID AL- FITR CLASH BETWEEN SHI'ITES AND SECURITY FORCES IN THE MARADI AREA LAST FEBRUARY. MAIGA VOWED THAT THE GON WOULD NOT LET FUNDAMENTALISM GET OUT OF CONTROL. IN THE INCIDENT REFERRED TO, SHIA MUSLIMS HAD WANTED TO CELEBRATE THE EID AL-FITR A DAY LATER THAN THE OFFICIAL DAY OBSERVED BY NIGER'S SUNNI MAJORITY, BUT SECURITY FORCES STOPPED THE OBSERVANCE. THE AMBASSADOR ASKED NIGER'S FORMER DCM FROM ITS WASHINGTON EMBASSY WHY THIS POINT SHOULD BE IMPORTANT TO GON AUTHORITIES. HE GAVE TWO REASONS. FIRST, ISLAM IS A COMMUNAL RELIGION; THE COMMUNITY IS SUPPOSED TO DO IT TOGETHER. "IF 900 PEOPLE WANT TO CELEBRATE A FESTIVAL ON A CERTAIN DAY, YOU CAN'T HAVE 100 OTHERS DOING IT SOME OTHER TIME. IT ISN'T RIGHT," HE SAID. SECONDLY, THE GOVERNMENT WISHES TO MINIMIZE NIGERIAN INFLUENCE BECAUSE NIGERIANS ARE MORE PRONE TO VIOLENCE THAN ARE NIGERIENS. NIGERIA'S ISLAMIC CALENDAR HAS OFTEN PUT IT ONE DAY OFF THE CALENDAR OBSERVED IN NIGER, SAID THE DCM; IT'S A SMALL POINT BUT IT CAN'T BE IGNORED. ANOTHER NIGERIEN SAID THAT THE SHIAS ARE JUST TESTING THE GOVERNMENT. IF THEY GET AWAY WITH ONE SMALL CHANGE, THEN THEY WILL FEEL EMBOLDENED, AND PRESS FOR OTHERS. -------------- IRAN'S ROLE -------------- ¶6. (C) CERTAIN EVIDENCE OF IRAN'S PRESENCE AND ACTIVITY CAN BE EASILY SEEN IN NIAMEY: A SCHOOL, A HEALTH CLINIC, AND A SMALL TRADE FAIR LAST JANUARY. THE SCHOOL ACCEPTS NIGERIEN CHILDREN FROM AGE FIVE THROUGH THE LATE TEENAGE YEARS. WHEN THE FORMER ALGERIAN AMBASSADOR EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE SCHOOL TO GON OFFICIALS, HE WAS TOLD THAT PERMISSION HAD NEVER BEEN GIVEN TO OPEN IT AND THAT IT WOULD BE CLOSED, BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. ACCORDING TO THE ALGERIAN, PATIENTS AT THE CLINIC, WHICH OFFERS FREE CARE FOR THE NEEDIEST, ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO SHIA INDOCTRINATION. ONE SOUS-PREFET TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT WHEN SUNNI MUSLIMS BECOME SHIAS, THE IRANIANS REWARD THEM WITH MONEY TO BUY NEW CLOTHES "SO THAT THEY CAN BE PROPERLY DRESSED WHEN THEY GO TO THE MOSQUE." IN JUNE THE FORMER SAUDI CHARGE TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE IRANIANS WERE SPENDING A LOT OF MONEY IN NIGER TO PROMOTE THEIR RELIGION AND THEIR IMAGE. HE DID NOT THINK THEY WERE ACHIEVING MUCH, BUT ADDED THAT THEY WERE TAKING THE LONG-TERM VIEW. THE TRADE FAIR LASTED A WEEK AND CONSISTED OF HANDICRAFTS AND SMALL MANUFACTURED ITEMS DISPLAYED BY 24 FIRMS. THE EXHIBIT WAS OPENED BY THE DIRECTOR OF AFRICAN AFFAIRS IN THE IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY, IDENTIFIED AS A MR. "JENID (ALSO "DJAWID") GHORBER OGHLI" (SIC). THE OTHER IRANIAN VISITOR OF NOTE DURING THE YEAR WAS THE MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS WHO CAME ON JULY 12 AS PART OF A REGIONAL TRIP SOLICITING SUPPORT FOR THE HOLDING OF THE OIC SUMMIT CONFERENCE IN TEHRAN IN DECEMBER. ¶7. (C) IRANIAN ACTIVITY IN NIGER IS REGARDED WITH SUSPICION BY THE GON. PRESIDENT BARE TOLD THE ALGERIAN. AMBASSADOR RECENTLY THAT THE GON KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE IRANIAN SCHOOL AND THE CLINIC AND THAT ALL IRANIAN ACTIVITIES "ARE CLOSELY MONITORED." BARE TOLD AMBASSADOR CECIL IN SEPTEMBER QUITE EMPHATICALLY THAT NIGER (HE HAS TO MEAN THE GOVERNMENT) HAS RECEIVED NOT ONE DOLLAR FROM IRAN. IT IS TRUE THAT SEVENTEEN NIGERIENS WERE GIVEN UNIVERSITY SCHOLARSHIPS FOR STUDY IN IRAN SOMETIME IN THE LAST YEAR, BUT WHEN ONE RETURNED TO NIGER TO REPORT THAT ALL HAD BEEN SENT TO QUM WHERE THEY WERE GIVEN INSTRUCTIONS IN THE USE OF ARMS, THE GON CALLED THEM ALL BACK AND THERE ARE NOW NONE THERE. ¶8. (C) THIS DISTRUST OF IRAN MAKES IT HARD TO UNDERSTAND THE RATIONALE BEHIND FOREIGN MINISTER MAYAKI'S JUNE VISIT TO TEHRAN, AFTER WHICH IT WAS ANNOUNCED THAT IRAN AND NIGER WOULD RAISE THEIR RELATIONS TO THE AMBASSADORIAL LEVEL. (IRAN IS REPRESENTED BY A PERMANENT CHARGE IN NIAMEY; NIGER HAS . NO REPRESENTATIVE IN TEHRAN.) ACCORDING TO THE FORMER ALGERIAN AMBASSADOR, IRAN OFFERED TO PAY RENT, UTILITIES, AND TELEPHONE FOR A NIGERIEN EMBASSY IN TEHRAN. FORNMIN MAYAKI TOLD THE ALGERIAN THAT HE NEVER AGREED TO ESTABLISH AN EMBASSY IN TEHRAN--MERELY TO ELEVATE RELATIONS TO THE AMBASSADORIAL LEVEL. NIGER'S CLOSEST AMBASSADORS IN THE AREA ARE IN RIYADH, KUWAIT, AND CAIRO. AMBASSADOR CECIL HAS ASKED NUMEROUS GON OFFICIALS FOR THEIR VIEWS CONCERNING THE REASONS FOR ELEVATING NIGERIEN-IRANIAN RELATIONS, BUT NONE HAVE GIVEN ANY SUBSTANTIVE REPLY. MFA SECGEN SEYDOU IN OCTOBER TOLD THE AMBASSADOR NOT TO ATTACH TOO MUCH IMPORTANCE TO THE MATTER. WE NOTE THAT AT THE TIME OF THE VISIT, TEHRAN SPOKE OF "IRAN'S READINESS FOR COOPERATION WITH NIGER IN THE FIELDS OF AGRICULTURE, ANIMAL HUSBANDRY, DAM BUILDING, AND COMMERCE." (FBIS LONDON 301454Z JUN 97). WHEN SEEKING THE MOTIVATION FOR NIGER'S POLICIES ONE MUST ALWAYS CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SEARCH FOR ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR. -------------- LONG TERM TRENDS -------------- ¶9. (C) ALMOST ALL NIGERIENS WILL OPINE THAT FUNDAMENTALISM IS A LONG-TERM THREAT FOR NIGER. ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT CLOISTERING OF WOMEN IN THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY THE ZINDER REGION, MAY BE ON THE INCREASE. AS RECENTLY AS OCTOBER A GROUP OF EDUCATED, PROFESSIONAL NIGERIEN WOMEN TOLD THE AMBASSADOR AND THE PAO THAT ATTENDANCE AT ISLAMIC SCHOOLS WAS ON THE INCREASE BECAUSE MORE AND MORE PARENTS WANTED THEIR CHILDREN TO RECEIVE THE MORAL VALUES PRESENTED IN THE ISLAMIC SCHOOLS' CURRICULA. (GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS ARE ALSO FREQUENTLY INTERRUPTED BY TEACHERS' STRIKES, SEEKING UNPAID WAGES.) EDUCATED WOMEN IN PARTICULAR REGRET THE GROWING CONSERVATIVE RELIGIOUS INFLUENCE ON PUBLIC AFFAIRS BECAUSE EFFORTS TO LEGISLATE A "FAMILY CODE" HAVE BEEN ON HOLD SINCE 1992 OWING TO THE FIERCE OPPOSITION OF CONSERVATIVE, IF NOT FUNDAMENTALIST, MUSLIMS, SOME OF WHOM THREATENED VIOLENCE AGAINST ADVOCATES OF THE CODE. THOUGH NIGER IS A SECULAR STATE, WOMEN DO NOT HAVE FULL EQUALITY WITH MEN BEFORE THE LAW IN CERTAIN AREAS, SUCN AS DIVORCE PROCEEDINGS AND INHERITANCE CASES. THE FAMILY CODE WOULD HAVE ASSURED THIS EQUALITY. ¶10. (C) THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR TOLD AMBASSADOR CECIL THAT HIS FRENCH STAFF IS UNANIMOUS IN BELIEVING THAT IRAN IS WORKING COVERTLY IN NIGER TO PROMOTE SHI'ISM. "THEY HAVE MONEY AND ARE NOT IN A HURRY," SAID AMBASSADOR PAVEC. "IT IS NOT AN IMMINENT THREAT, BUT IN TEN YEARS, WHO KNOWS?" ¶11. (C) WE CONCLUDE THAT BOTH IRAN AND RELIGIOUS LEADERS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA ARE WORKING TO PROMOTE SHI'ISM IN NIGER. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A SLOW PROCESS BECAUSE OF THE ABSENCE, IN GENERAL, OF STRONG RELIGIOUS BROTHERHOODS ("TURUQ", OR "CONFRERIES") IN NIGER, SUCH AS THE TIDJANI IN SENEGAL OR THE SANOUSSI IN LIBYA. THERE IS NO STRUCTURE THROUGH WHICH TO WORK TO INFLUENCE THOUSANDS OF BELIEVERS AT A TIME; IT'S A TASK WHICH HAS TO BE ADVANCED MORE ON AN INDIVIDUAL BASIS. ONE NEED NOT BE A SHIA TO BE A FUNDAMENTALIST, HOWEVER. THE TURN TOWARD RELIGION TO ASSUAGE FEELINGS OF DESPAIR AND HOPELESSNESS CAN EASILY BE PROMPTED BY POVERTY. (WE NOTE THAT BOTH THE WORLD BANK AND THE UNDP HAVE LAUNCHED PROGRAMS DESIGNED TO COMBAT POVERTY. THEY ARE NOT MOTIVATED, HOWEVER, BY A DESIRE TO RESIST ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM.) IT MAY ONLY BE A SMALL STEP FROM SUCH DESPAIR TO ATTACKING GOVERNMENTS, OR EVEN DONORS, WHICH HAVE SHOWN THEMSELVES INCAPABLE OF SOLVING THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS AFFLICTING THE PEOPLE. THE ANALYSIS OF FORMER PRIME MINISTER AMADOU, IN ITS SIMPLICITY, MAY WELL BE RIGHT ON TARGET. BUT THE IRANIANS ARE HERE AS WELL, WORKING TO FORCE THE PACE A BIT. CECIL