A SADC PRIMER: TIME FOR A REVISED EDITION?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 GABORONE 004838


DEPT FOR AF/S -- KIM-SCOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/03
TAGS: PREL ECIN ECON KPRP
SUBJECT: A SADC PRIMER: TIME FOR A REVISED EDITION?

CLASSIFIED BY: SCOTT DELISI, CHARGE, AMEMBASSY GABORONE
REASON: 1.5 (B)

REFTEL: A) PRETORIA 6853, B) STATE 115688, C) PRETORIA 8653


1. SUMMARY. SOUTHERN AFRICA IS INCREASINGLY TOUTED AS THE
CONTINENT'S ENGINE OF GROWTH, WITH THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN
DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY (SADC) DRIVING THE TRAIN. SADC HAS
MATURED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE ITS FORMATION IN 1992, BUT FORGING
REGIONAL COOPERATION FROM NATIONALIST PROCLIVITIES IS AS
DELICATE A PROCESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA AS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
AND NORTH AMERICA. THE SADC SECRETARIAT, WITH ITS AMORPHOUS
ROLE AND LIMITED RESOURCES, HAS PROVEN TO BE NO MATCH FOR
STRONG NATIONAL LEADERS WITH SOMETIMES CONFLICTING IDEOLOGICAL
PERSPECTIVES, WHO HAVE OFTEN DOMINATED THE ORGANIZATION. AS
ITS MANDATE EXPANDS BEYOND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TO
STATESMANSHIP, SADC IS STRUGGLING TO LIVE UP TO THE WORLD'S
EPXECTATIONS. WHETHER SADC'S ORIGINAL STRUCTURE IS UP TO THE
TASK IS CURRENTLY UNDER DEBATE, AND PROMISES TO FEATURE
PROMINENTLY AT THE SEPTEMBER SADC SUMMIT IN MALAWI.


2. NONETHELESS, SADC STATES HAVE MORE IN COMMON THAN JUST
GEOGRAPHY, AND THEREIN LIES SOME OF THE ORGANIZATION'S TRUE
POTENTIAL. THE 12 COUNTRIES SHARE A CONSENSUAL APPROACH TO
REGIONAL DECISION-MAKING, ESPOUSE (BUT DON'T ALWAYS PRACTICE)
DEMOCRATIC IDEALS, AND PROMOTE A LARGELY FREE MARKET APPROACH
TO DOING BUSINESS. ULTIMATELY, SOUTH AFRICA, AS THE
ORGANIZATION'S DOMINANT MEMBER, REMAINS THE KEY TO BALANCED
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ITS NEIGHBORS ARE KEEPING AN INTERESTED
IF WARY EYE ON THE INDICATORS OF SOUTH AFRICA'S COMMITMENT TO
REGIONAL INTEGRATION. FOR SADC TO ACHIEVE ITS DUAL GOALS OF
BALANCED REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND POLITICAL STABILITY
AND SECURITY, SOUTH AFRICA AND ITS SADC PARTNERS WILL HAVE TO
BACK THE REGIONAL INTEGRATION CONCEPT WITH MORE THAN WORDS.
THEY HAVE TAKEN THE INITIATIVE TO ASSESS THEIR PERFORMANCE AND
DIRECTION. NOW THEY ARE FACING THE TRUE TEST OF REGIONAL
INTEGRATION: IMPLEMENTING REFORMS THAT MAY INVOLVE DIFFICULT
COMPROMISES BY SOME FOR THE GOOD OF ALL. END SUMMARY.

GENESIS
--------------


3. THE 12-MEMBER SADC EVOLVED FROM THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN
DEVELOPMENT COORDINATING CONFERENCE (SADCC),WHICH WAS FOUNDED
IN 1980 BY THE FRONTLINE STATES (FLS) TO ADVANCE REGIONAL
COOPERATION AGAINST APARTHEID. WITH APARTHEID'S DEMISE,
SADCC'S ROLE SHIFTED FROM ISOLATING APARTHEID TO PROMOTING THE
FLS' ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. IN AUGUST, 1992, "SADCC" EMERGED
AS "SADC," WITH AN UPDATED MANDATE OF FOSTERING ECONOMIC
PROSPERITY, DEVELOPMENT, AND STABILITY THROUGH REGIONAL TRADE
LIBERALIZATION AND POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION.


4. WHEREAS SADCC HAD WORKED TO COORDINATE MEMBER STATES'
ECONOMIES ON SPECIFIC PROJECTS WITH REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS, THE
NEW SADC HAS FOCUSED ON INTEGRATING STATES' ACTIVITIES INTO
REGIONAL ACTION. SOUTH AFRICA, THE FORMER PARIAH, NOW PLAYS A
PIVOTAL ROLE IN SADC'S REGIONAL INTEGRATION STRATEGY, AS DOES
THE STABILITY OF THOSE COUNTRIES (MOZAMBIQUE, ANGOLA, NAMIBIA)
EMERGING FROM CIVIL WAR. THE 1992 SADC TREATY COMMITS MEMBER
COUNTRIES TO HARMONIZE AND RATIONALIZE THEIR DEVELOPMENT
POLICIES AND STRATEGIES; AN AMBITIOUS GOAL FOR 12 COUNTRIES
WITH WIDELY DIFFERING CAPACITIES FOR GROWTH. THE TREATY IS
ENFORCEABLE THROUGH SANCTIONS, WHICH MAY BE IMPOSED AGAINST A
MEMBER STATE THAT 1) PERSISTENTLY FAILS TO FULFILL ITS
OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE SADC TREATY, 2) IMPLEMENTS POLICIES
WHICH UNDERMINE THE PRINCIPLES AND OBJECTIVES OF SADC, OR 3)
IS MORE THAN ONE YEAR OVERDUE IN PAYING ITS DUES WITHOUT
HAVING OBTAINED A DISPENSATION FROM SADC.

SUMMIT OF HEADS OF STATE
--------------


5. THE TEN ORIGINAL MEMBERS (ANGOLA, BOTSWANA, LESOTHO,
MALAWI, MOZAMBIQUE, NAMIBIA, SWAZILAND, TANZANIA, ZAMBIA,
ZIMBABWE) WELCOMED SOUTH AFRICA INTO SADC IN AUGUST, 1994,
FOLLOWED BY MAURITIUS IN 1995. SOUTH AFRICA'S PRESIDENT
MANDELA HAS BEEN CHAIRMAN OF THE SADC SUMMIT OF HEADS OF STATE
AND GOVERNMENT (SUMMIT) SINCE 1996, REPLACING BOTSWANA'S
PRESIDENT MASIRE WHO HELD THE OFFICE SINCE SADC'S INCEPTION.
AS THE ULTIMATE POLICY-MAKING INSTITUTION OF SADC, THE SUMMIT
SETS THE COMMUNITY'S OVERALL POLICY DIRECTION, CREATES
COMMISSIONS AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS, AND APPOINTS THE EXECUTIVE
AND DEPUTY EXECUTIVE SECRETARY OF THE SADC SECRETARIAT,
LOCATED IN GABORONE. THE NEXT SUMMIT MEETING, SCHEDULED TO
BEGIN ON SEPTEMBER 8 IN MALAWI, IS EXPECTED TO TACKLE
CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES RANGING FROM EXPANDING SADC'S MEMBERSHIP,
TO RESTRUCTURING THE ORGANIZATION, TO FINALIZING SADC'S
POSITION ON TRADE WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU).
COUNCIL OF MINISTERS
--------------


6. THE SUMMIT IS ADVISED BY A COUNCIL OF MINISTERS, WHICH
ALSO APPROVES SADC POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND WORK PROGRAMS.
COMPRISED OF MINISTERS FROM EACH STATE (GENERALLY PLANNING OR
FINANCE MINISTERS),THE COUNCIL OVERSEES THE FUNCTIONING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF SADC AND ENSURES POLICY IMPLEMENTATION. IT
ALSO ASSIGNS SPECIFIC AREAS OF COOPERATION TO SECTOR
COORDINATING UNITS ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE APPROPRIATE MINISTRY
IN EACH MEMBER STATE. A STANDING COMMITTEE OF OFFICIALS,
COMPRISED OF A PERMANENT SECRETARY FROM EACH MEMBER STATE,
ACTS AS TECHNICAL ADVISOR TO THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS.
MEMBERS OF THE STANDING COMMITTEE ALSO SERVE AS NATIONAL
CONTACT POINTS RESPONSIBLE FOR SADC MATTERS, LINKING OTHER
AGENCIES OF GOVERNMENT WITH SADC.

SECTOR COORDINATING UNITS
--------------


7. SADC'S EIGHTEEN SECTOR COORDINATING UNITS CURRENTLY ARE
DIVIDED AMONGST THE TWELVE MEMBERS, WITH A SECTORAL COMMITTEE
OF MINISTERS SUPERVISING EACH COORDINATING UNIT. RANGING FROM
ENERGY (ANGOLA) TO TOURISM (MAURITIUS) TO LABOR (ZAMBIA),THE
COORDINATING UNITS SPEARHEAD THE REGIONAL POLICIES AND
PROGRAMS FOR EACH PARTICULAR SECTOR. INDIVIDUAL MEMBER STATES
PROVIDE FUNDING AND STAFF TO ADMINISTER THEIR RESPECTIVE
SECTOR COORDINATING UNITS, WHICH FUNCTION AS PART OF THAT
STATE'S NATIONAL GOVERNMENT.


8. THE CAPACITY OF INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES TO STEER SADC'S
PROGRAMS IN PARTICULAR SECTORS VARIES CONSIDERABLY. LOGJAMS
HAVE IMPEDED PROGRESS WHEN EXPERTISE, EFFICIENCY, OR DOMESTIC
DISTRACTIONS PREVENT THE MINISTRY FROM PROMOTING ITS SECTOR
EFFECTIVELY AND DYNAMICALLY. ANGOLA'S PREOCCUPATION WITH
RESOLVING ITS CIVIL WAR HAS WEAKENED ITS ABILITY TO LEAD SADC
ON ENERGY ISSUES, THE SECTOR IT HEADS AND ARGUABLY ONE OF THE
SECTORS MOST CRITICAL TO THE REGION'S MODERNIZATION.
SWAZILAND'S LACK OF EXPERTISE (AND FAILURE TO SEEK IT OUT) IN
HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN BLAMED FOR THE SLOW
PROGRESS IN THAT VITAL SECTOR. ADDED TO SUCH WEAKNESSES IS A
LACK OF INTER-SECTORAL COORDINATION THAT FURTHER DISRUPTS
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS. OFTEN BLAMED FOR SADC'S UNEVEN
PERFORMANCE, THE COORDINATING UNITS REVEAL THE HANDICAP THAT
THE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL DISPARITIES AMONG THE SADC
COUNTRIES CAUSES.

CONSOLIDATION PROPOSAL: EFFICIENT BUT UNPOPULAR
-------------- --


9. IN AN ATTEMPT TO REVITALIZE SADC AND IMPROVE ITS
EFFECTIVENESS, MEMBERS COMMISSIONED A REVIEW OF THE
ORGANIZATION'S STRUCTURE IN 1995. THE REPORT RECOMMENDED
CONSOLIDATING THE COORDINATING UNITS INTO FIVE DIRECTORATES
THAT WOULD FOCUS MORE ON POLICY THAN PROJECT COORDINATION.
EXISTING SECTORS WOULD BE CLUSTERED TOGETHER IN KEY AREAS OF
COOPERATION FOR GREATER FLEXIBILITY: 1) AGRICULTURE, NATURAL
RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT; 2) HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT,
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY; 3) INFRASTRUCTURE, COMMUNICATIONS AND
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY; 4) TRADE, INDUSTRY, INVESTMENT AND
FINANCE; AND 5) COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT, CULTURE AND
INFORMATION. A POSSIBLE SIXTH DIRECTORATE FOR WATER RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT MIGHT BE REQUIRED, ACCORDING TO THE REPORT. THE
DIRECTORATES WOULD BE FUNDED BY REGIONAL RESOURCES (IN PART TO
REDUCE DEPENDENCY ON DONORS) AND STAFFED BY REGIONAL
PROFESSIONALS.


10. WHILE THIS MAY BE A MORE EFFICIENT APPROACH, IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED FIERCE RESISTANCE FROM A NUMBER OF SADC STATES,
SOME OF WHICH WOULD LOSE THEIR SECTOR OF RESPONSIBILITY. AS
THE REPORT POINTS OUT, SADC'S PRESENT STRUCTURE HAS ENSURED A
SENSE OF "OWNERSHIP" BY MEMBER STATES AND AVOIDED EXCESSIVE
TENSIONS WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION BY EQUALIZING THE FLOW OF
BENEFITS. DECIDING WHERE THE DIRECTORATES WOULD BE BASED
WOULD LIKELY INVOLVE A STICKY, AND HIGHLY CHARGED, DEBATE
AMIDST FEARS OF CERTAIN STATES DOMINATING THE ORGANIZATION.
AS USAID DISCOVERED IN 1996 WHEN SADC MEMBERS CRITICIZED THE
SECRETARIAT FOR SIGNING AGREEMENTS ON SADC'S BEHALF,
ENTHUSIASM FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION HAS NOT OVERCOME CONCERNS
ABOUT CEDING NATIONAL CONTROL, IF NOT SOVEREIGNTY, TO A
CENTRAL, SUPRA-NATIONAL SECRETARIAT.


11. COST CONCERNS MAY ALSO WORK AGAINST CONSOLIDATION.
CURRENTLY, EACH STATE CONTROLS EXPENDITURES FOR THE
OPERATIONAL EXPENSES OF ITS SECTOR. UNDER THE NEW PROPOSAL,
MEMBERS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CENTRAL FUND THAT WOULD FINANCE
ADMINISTRATION OF THE DIRECTORATES. SOME STATES FEAR THIS
MIGHT BE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THE PRESENT ARRANGEMENT, WHICH
LETS THEM DECIDE HOW MUCH (OR HOW LITTLE) TO SPEND ON THEIR
SADC SECTOR OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE REPORT SUGGESTS THAT
CONTRIBUTIONS MIGHT BE DETERMINED BASED ON POPULATION, GDP, OR
GDP PER CAPITA; OPTIONS THAT AGAIN RAISE CONCERNS OF DOMINANCE
BY SOME MEMBERS. THE RECOMMENDATION THAT SADC SHOULD SOLICIT
GREATER PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT IN ITS PROGRAM OF ACTION HAS
ALSO GENERATED CONTROVERSY.


12. THE REPORT'S PROPOSALS WERE DISCUSSED BY DELEGATIONS FROM
THE 12 SADC STATES AT A RECENT REGIONAL WORKSHOP IN GABORONE
ON THE RATIONALIZATION OF THE SADC PROGRAM OF ACTION. AFTER A
CONTENTIOUS OPENING SESSION, THE WORKSHOP ORGANIZERS CHANGED
THE FORMAT TO CLOSED SESSION DISCUSSIONS. THE WORKSHOP'S
RECOMMENDATIONS WILL BE CONSIDERED AT THE UPCOMING COUNCIL OF
MINISTERS' MEETING IN BLANTYRE AT WHICH THE RESTRUCTURING
ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE AGENDA.


SADC SECRETARIAT
--------------


13. THE REPORT ALSO TARGETED THE SADC SECRETARIAT FOR
STREAMLINING, SUGGESTING THAT ITS FUNCTIONS BE LIMITED TO
POLICY HARMONIZATION, LOBBYING, PUBLIC RELATIONS AND
INFORMATION DISSEMINATION, AND ADMINISTRATION. CURRENTLY, THE
SECRETARIAT'S PROFESSIONAL STAFF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRATEGIC
PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF SADC PROGRAMS, AS WELL AS GENERAL
ADMINISTRATION OF THE COMMUNITY, INCLUDING FINANCES AND
DIPLOMATIC REPRESENTATION. OPERATIONAL COSTS OF RUNNING THE
SECRETARIAT ARE FUNDED FROM CONTRIBUTIONS BY MEMBER STATES IN
EQUAL AMOUNTS SET BY THE COUNCIL.


14. HEADQUARTERED IN GABORONE, THE SECRETARIAT HAS BEEN
CRITICIZED AS INEFFICIENT AND INEFFECTIVE. SOME MEMBERS
ADVOCATE ABOLISHING THE SECRETARIAT ALTOGETHER, ALTHOUGH NO
REALISTIC ALTERNATIVES HAVE BEEN PRESENTED. EARLIER THIS
YEAR, THE SECRETARIAT CAME UNDER ATTACK FOR MISMANAGEMENT,
WITH SOME MEMBERS REPORTEDLY CALLING FOR THE REMOVAL OF
EXECUTIVE SECRETARY DR. KAIRE MBUENDE OF NAMIBIA. DR. MBUENDE
ESCAPED RELATIVELY UNSCATHED, THOUGH HIS LEADERSHIP STYLE HAS
NOT MADE HIM POPULAR. SADC HEADS OF STATE WILL DECIDE AT THE
MALAWI MEETING WHETHER TO REAPPOINT DR. MBUENDE FOR ANOTHER
FOUR YEARS WHEN HIS PRESENT TERM EXPIRES IN DECEMBER. AS THE
RESTRUCTURING REPORT POINTS OUT, MANY OF THE COMPLAINTS LODGED
AGAINST THE SECRETARIAT COULD BE ADDRESSED BY CLARIFYING THE
SECRETARIAT'S MANDATE AND ALLOCATING SUFFICIENT RESOURCES FOR
IT TO IMPLEMENT ITS RESPONSIBILITIES.


PROTOCOLS: JUST ONE OF MANY STEPS
--------------


15. WHILE IT GRAPPLES WITH RATIONALIZING ITS PROGRAM OF
ACTION AND STRUCTURE, THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SADC TO BUILD A REPUTATION AS AN INFLUENTIAL REGIONAL
BLOCK. THE WEAK LINK AT THIS STAGE SEEMS TO BE TOO MANY
OPPORTUNITIES TOO SOON, WITH SADC OUTGROWING ITS RESOURCES AND
CAPABILITIES, ACCORDING TO THE RESTRUCTURING REPORT. SADC HAS
FORGED AN ARRAY OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TIES IN THE
FORM OF PROTOCOLS THAT AFFIRM GENERAL PRINCIPLES; NOW IT IS
FACED WITH THE COMPLEX AND TIME-CONSUMING TASK OF PUTTING
FLESH ON THE BONES OF THOSE PROTOCOLS BEFORE EVENTS OVERTAKE
THE PROCESS. USAID'S REGIONAL CENTER FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA
(RCSA) IS FUNDING WORKSHOPS AND PROGRAMS TO SPEED UP
IMPLEMENTATION OF SADC POLICY AGREEMENTS AND PROTOCOLS AND TO
ENSURE THE FINAL PRODUCTS REFLECT THE NEEDS AND PRIORITIES OF
ALL STAKEHOLDERS.


16. IN THE MEANTIME, THE MOMENTUM FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
BURGEONING REGION PUSHES SADC STATES INTO ACTION, SOMETIMES
UNILATERALLY, WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF LONG-TERM, COORDINATED
REGIONAL PLANNING. NAMIBIA'S RECENT PLAN TO DIVERT WATER FROM
THE OKAVANGO RIVER, WHICH ORIGINATES IN THE ANGOLAN HIGHLANDS
AND EMPTIES INTO BOTSWANA'S FAMED OKAVANGO DELTA, HIGHLIGHTED
THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL APPROACH TO MANAGEMENT OF SHARED
WATERCOURSES. MEMBER STATES SIGNED THE SADC PROTOCOL ON
SHARED WATERCOURSES IN 1995 BUT IT WILL BE MONTHS BEFORE THAT
IS TRANSLATED INTO POLICIES AND ACTION. DROUGHT-PRONE NAMIBIA
MAY NOT BE ABLE TO WAIT FOR REGIONAL COORDINATION, THOUGH IT
HAS ENGAGED IN REGULAR CONSULTATIONS WITH THE BOTSWANA
GOVERNMENT REGARDING THE PIPELINE PROJECT'S IMPLEMENTATION.


17. THE PLIGHT OF THE SADC TRADE PROTOCOL, ONE OF THE
ORGANIZATION'S PRIMARY RAISON D'ETRE, DEMONSTRATES THE
CONSEQUENCES OF TRYING TO DO TOO MUCH, TOO FAST. HEATED
DEBATE OVER SUCH CONTENTIOUS POINTS AS FREE MOVEMENT OF
CAPITAL AND LABOR, TARIFF REDUCTIONS, STANDARDIZATION OF
REGULATIONS AND LEGAL PROCEDURES HAS MADE PROGRESS ON
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TRADE PROTOCOL (RATIFIED BY ONLY TWO
COUNTRIES TO DATE) PAINFULLY SLOW. A REGION-WIDE SHORTAGE OF
EXPERTS TO NEGOTIATE COMPLICATED TARIFF REDUCTIONS ADDS TO
EXISTING CAPACITY DISPARITIES WITHIN SADC, MAKING IT EVEN MORE
DIFFICULT TO FINALIZE PROTOCOL DETAILS. (REFTEL A).


18. IN THE MEANTIME, SOME SADC STATES ARE NEGOTIATING AND
SIGNING BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS WHILE OTHERS DEFER
NMGOTIATIONS TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY WITH THE REGIONAL
AGREEMENT. SOUTH AFRICA HAS HELD UP ITS TRADE DISCUSSIONS
WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, CLAIMING THAT IT CANNOT SUBMIT ITS
PROPOSAL FOR A FREE TRADE PACT WITH THE EU UNTIL THE SADC
TRADE PROTOCOL TERMS HAVE BEEN FINALIZED, ACCORDING TO PRESS
REPORTS. AT A RECENT MEETING IN TANZANIA, SADC TRADE
MINISTERS WERE ABLE TO AGREE ON A GENERAL TIMETABLE FOR
NEGOTIATIONS ON A PROPOSAL TO FREE REGIONAL TRADE EXCHANGES
WITHIN EIGHT YEARS; A START, BUT A LONG WAY FROM PROCLAIMING A
SADC FREE TRADE AREA.


POLITICAL ORGAN
--------------


19. RECOGNIZING THAT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DEPENDS ON
POLITICAL STABILITY, SADC HAS BROADENED ITS MISSION TO INCLUDE
POLITICS AND SECURITY. IN 1995, MEMBERS ESTABLISHED THE ORGAN
FOR POLITICS, SECURITY AND DEFENSE (POLITICAL ORGAN) TO
PROMOTE COOPERATION ON POLITICAL AND SECURITY ISSUES OF A
REGIONAL NATURE. CURRENTLY CHAIRED BY ZIMBABWE'S PRESIDENT
MUGABE, THE POLITICAL ORGAN IS AIMED AT CONFLICT PREVENTION
AND MANAGEMENT. THE GREAT LAKES CRISES AND THE AFRICAN CRISIS
RESPONSE INITIATIVE (ACRI) PRESENTED TWO RECENT OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SADC TO RESPOND REGIONALLY TO EVENTS OF GLOBAL IMPORTANCE.
MUGABE'S FAILURE TO CONVENE THE ORGAN TO ADDRESS EITHER ISSUE
CREATED A VOID WHERE SADC MIGHT HAVE HAD AN INFLUENTIAL VOICE.
HIS TIGHT REIN NOT ONLY PREVENTED SADC FROM TAKING A FORMAL
POSITION, IT MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR INDIVIDUAL MEMBER STATES TO
ACT OFFICIALLY, OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE REGIONAL BODY.


20. ZIMBABWE'S LACK OF DECISIVE RESPONSE TO UNFOLDING
SECURITY CONCERNS MAY BE PART OF AN INTERNAL STRUGGLE BETWEEN
MUGABE AND MANDELA TO ALTER THE PROFILE OF THE POLITICAL ORGAN
WITHIN THE SADC ORGANIZATION, BOTSWANA DEFENSE FORCE (BDF)
COMMANDER LT. GEN. IAN KHAMA SAID AT A JUNE MEETING WITH
ACTING A/S TWADDELL IN WASHINGTON (REFTEL A). KHAMA
SPECULATED THAT MANDELA MIGHT BE SEEKING TO RE-POSITION THE
ORGAN AS A SECTOR RATHER THAN A SEPARATE SADC ENTITY IN ORDER
TO CURB MUGABE'S TENDENCY TO USE HIS POSITION AS ORGAN
CHAIRPERSON TO SPEAK UNILATERALLY ON SADC'S BEHALF. (NOTE.
REFTEL B REFLECTS A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE ON PROPOSALS TO
CONSOLIDATE THE SADC AND ORGAN CHAIRMANSHIPS. END NOTE.) IF
KHAMA IS RIGHT, MANDELA (AND PERHAPS OTHERS) MAY HAVE HONED IN
ON TWO IMPEDIMENTS THAT HAVE WEAKENED SADC'S ABILITY TO
CONSOLIDATE ITS POWER AS A REGIONAL ORGANIZATION:
PERSONALITIES AND COHESION.


HOW BIG IS "SOUTHERN" AFRICA
--------------


21. HOW SADC CAN AND SHOULD FUNCTION TO PROMOTE REGIONALISM
IS STILL BEING DEBATED. THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG REGIONAL
LEADERS (AND DONORS) ON THE DIRECTION AND PROGRESS IN SECTORS
SOMETIMES OUTWEIGHS THE ORGANIZATION'S INPUT. EVEN SADC'S
COMPOSITION ISN'T FULLY SETTLED, WITH TALK OF MEMBERSHIP FOR
THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO (DROC),KENYA, UGANDA, THE
SEYCHELLES, AND MADAGASCAR SURFACING PERIODICALLY. SADC
EXECUTIVE SECRETARY MBUENDE RENEWED THE INVITATION TO KENYA
AND UGANDA DURING JUNE MEETINGS WITH THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY
OF THE REVITALIZED COMMISSION FOR EAST AFRICAN COOPERATION
(EAC). (NOTE: TANZANIA IS THE THIRD MEMBER OF THE EAC, AND
ALSO A MEMBER OF SADC. END NOTE.) PRESIDENT MUGABE AND
NAMIBIA'S PRESIDENT NUJOMA HAVE PUBLICLY EXPRESSED SUPPORT FOR
DROC'S ADMISSION TO SADC, AND MEMBERSHIP APPLICATIONS BY THE
DROC AND THE SEYCHELLES ARE UP FOR CONSIDERATION AT THE
BLANTYRE SADC SUMMIT, ACCORDING TO DR. MBUENDE.


22. NEITHER KENYA NOR UGANDA IS EXPECTED TO ACCEPT SADC'S
INVITATION, THOUGH NEITHER HAS OFFICIALLY REFUSED THE OFFER,
SADC'S SENIOR ECONOMIST DR. CHUNGU MWILA TOLD POLOFF. DR.
MWILA PREDICTED THAT THE RESOURCE-RICH DROC WOULD JOIN SADC
BEFORE ANY OTHER CONTENDERS, BUT ADDED THAT THE SITUATION IN
DROC WOULD HAVE TO STABILIZE FIRST. (COMMENT: GIVEN SADC'S
PRIDE IN THE STABILITY AND DEMOCRATIC COMMITMENT OF ITS
MEMBERS, AND THE RECOGNITION THAT COORDINATING 12 COUNTRIES IS
A CHALLENGE, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY DROC MEMBERSHIP WILL BE
APPROVED AT THIS TIME. END COMMENT.) IT WOULD TAKE A
UNANIMOUS DECISION OF THE SADC SUMMIT FOR A NEW COUNTRY TO BE
ADMITTED TO SADC, AND SOME STATES, SUCH AS BOTSWANA, WOULD
PREFER TO SEE THE ORGANIZATION RUNNING MORE EFFECTIVELY BEFORE
NEW MEMBERS ARE ADDED.


23. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT SADC WILL STRENGTHEN ITS
COOPERATION WITH OTHER REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS IN AFRICA, LATIN
AMERICA, AND SOUTH EAST ASIA. DR. MBUENDE HAS STATED THAT
STRONGER "SOUTH-SOUTH" TIES WILL BOLSTER THE POSITION OF
AFRICA WITHIN THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO),GIVING
AFRICAN COUNTRIES MORE OF A VOICE IN SETTING THE POLICIES AND
REGULATIONS THAT AFFECT THEM. ENSURING COMPLEMENTARY AGENDAS
IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT WHERE MEMBERSHIP OVERLAPS, AS IN THE
CASE OF TANZANIA WHICH IS A MEMBER OF SADC AND THE EAC, DR.
MBUENDE SAID FOLLOWING THE JUNE EAC MEETINGS. HE ALSO
RECOGNIZED THE CRITICAL ROLE REGIONAL ECONOMIC COMMUNITIES
WILL PLAY IN BRINGING THE AFRICAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (AEC) TO
LIFE. IMPROVED RELATIONS BETWEEN SADC AND THE COMMON MARKET
FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA (COMESA),INCLUDING RECENT
MEETINGS BETWEEN SADC'S EXECUTIVE SECRETARY MBUENDE AND
COMESA'S SECRETARY-GENERAL ERASTUS MWENCHA, HAVE EASED THE
RIVALRY THAT HAS HAMPERED COOPERATION BETWEEN THE TWO
OVERLAPPING TRADE BLOCKS.


CONSULTATION LOWERS THE LEARNING CURVE
--------------


24. SADC MAINTAINS REGULAR DIALOGUE WITH ITS INTERNATIONAL
COOPERATING PARTNERS (GOVERNMENTS, NGOS) THROUGH CONSULTATIVE
CONFERENCES AT WHICH PROGRAMS AND RESULTS ARE EVALUATED AND
FUTURE PLANS ARE DISCUSSED. BY INVOLVING A BROAD RANGE OF
INTERESTED PARTIES IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING PROTOCOLS AND
POLICIES, SADC HAS TRIED TO BREAK DOWN THE PREJUDICES OF
GOVERNMENTS AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR, AND BUILD TRUST IN THE
REGIONAL INTEGRATION CONCEPT. THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL
DISPARITIES AMONG SADC STATES FREQUENTLY TEST THE PRINCIPLES
OF BALANCE, EQUITY AND MUTUAL BENEFIT WHICH UNDERLIE SADC'S
MAJOR POLICY GUIDELINES.


25. ONE WAY TO BRIDGE THE GAP IS BY FINDING COMMON GROUND IN
THE NATIONAL POLICIES AND PLANS OF MEMBER STATES. IDENTIFYING
WHERE COUNTRIES CAN LEARN FROM EACH OTHER AND WORKING TO
HARMONIZE DEVELOPING POLICIES, SADC HAS SOUGHT TO PROMOTE A
REGIONAL AGENDA. TELECOMMUNICATIONS, IN PARTICULAR, IS A
SECTOR WHERE SADC STATES, AT VARYING STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT,
HAVE BENEFITED FROM LEARNING FROM EACH OTHER'S SUCCESSES AND
FAILURES. IN THE NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT FIELD,
BOTSWANA'S PROGRESSIVE TECHNIQUES HAVE SET AN EXAMPLE THAT
OTHER SADC STATES CAN ADOPT AND ADAPT. BY SEEKING REGIONAL
SOLUTIONS TO WHAT INITIALLY APPEAR TO BE NATIONAL PROBLEMS,
SADC STATES ARE IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS AND EFFICIENCY OF
SADC PROGRAMS, AND REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR CROSS-BORDER
CONFLICTS. TENSIONS BETWEEN BOTSWANA AND NAMIBIA OVER A
VETERINARY FENCE CONSTRUCTED BY BOTSWANA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
BORDER EASED AFTER SADC'S EXECUTIVE SECRETARY (ALONG WITH
OTHERS) URGED BOTH SIDES TO FIND A SOLUTION. ONE POSSIBILITY
UNDER DISCUSSION IS A TRANS-BORDER PARK TO PRESERVE WILDLIFE
MIGRATION ROUTES AND PROTECT COMMUNITY-BASED NATURAL RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT PROJECTS.

COMMENT
--------------


26. THE SADC TREATY REQUIRES THAT STRONG MEMBERS ASSIST
WEAKER STATES, AN OBLIGATION THAT IN PRACTICE SOMETIMES
TRANSLATES INTO STRATEGIES THAT PROMOTE THE INTERESTS OF
DOMINANT MEMBERS. SACRIFICING SOVEREIGNTY FOR REGIONAL
DECISION-MAKING REQUIRES A FLEXIBILITY THAT NOT ALL SADC
COUNTRIES POSSESS...OR CAN AFFORD. THE NAMIBIAN TRADE AND
INDUSTRY MINISTER'S RECENTLY REPORTED COMMENTS THAT SOUTH
AFRICA, RESPONDING TO DOMESTIC PRESSURES, HAS DELIBERATELY
HAMPERED ITS NEIGHBORS' INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN ORDER TO
PROTECT SOUTH AFRICAN BUSINESSES SUGGEST THAT FORGING REGIONAL
COOPERATION WILL BE AS CHALLENGING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA AS IN
EUROPE OR NORTH AMERICA. WITH SADC MEMBER STATES PROGRESSING
AT DIFFERENT PACES AND STRUGGLING WITH DIFFERENT
DISADVANTAGES, IT WILL TAKE A FIRM COMMITMENT BY ALL 12
MEMBERS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AFRICA, TO PROVE THAT, ACTING
TOGETHER, SADC COUNTRIES WILL BE BETTER OFF THAN IF THEY ACT
ALONE.

DELISI