ASAD FAMILY UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 002809 DEPARTMENT FOR NEA, SMEC LONDON FOR TUELLER, PARIS FOR LEAF E.O.: 12958: DECL: 05/19/07 TAGS: PGOV PINR SY SUBJECT: ASAD FAMILY UPDATE REF: A) DAMASCUS 2466, B) DAMASCUS 2065, C) DAMASCUS 826 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR CHRISTOPHER W.S. ROSS, REASON: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: THE LATEST STORIES ON THE DAMASCUS RUMOR MILL SUGGEST A CLOSING OF THE RANKS WITHIN THE ASAD FAMILY, WITH MIXED SPECULATION THAT THE STANDING OF THE PRESIDENT'S BROTHER RIF'AT MAY BE IMPROVING, AND A SEPARATE STORY THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS APPOINTED HIS SON-IN-LAW, 'ASIF SHAWQAT, TO AN IMPORTANT NEW POSTING IN THE SECURITY SERVICES. END SUMMARY. -------------- MIXED REVIEWS ON RIF'AT'S STANDING -------------- ¶3. (C) ACCORDING TO SYRIAN CONTACTS IN THE BUSINESS AND ACADEMIC COMMUNITIES, THE PRESIDENT'S BROTHER RIF'AT IS BACK AT WORK AT HIS OFFICE AND SEEMS TO BE CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENT'S SONS, BASHAR AND MAHIR. THESE CONTACTS INSIST THAT REPORTS THAT RIF'AT HAS BEEN OUT OF FAVOR WITH THE PRESIDENT ARE GROSSLY EXAGGERATED, AND THAT RIF'AT WAS NEVER FULLY OUT OF GRACE SINCE HE WAS NOT STRIPPED OF HIS TITLE AS VICE PRESIDENT. IN THE EVENT THE PRESIDENT PASSES AWAY, THESE CONTACTS MAINTAIN THAT RIF'AT, BOTH AS VICE PRESIDENT AND THE PRESIDENT'S BROTHER, STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF RALLYING THE ALAWIS AND THEIR SUNNI ALLIES AND ASSUMING THE PRESIDENCY. ¶4. (C) MEANWHILE A CONTACT IN THE SOCIALIST UNITY PARTY (PROTECT) TOLD US THAT PRESIDENT ASAD AND RIF'AT MET MAY 10 IN QARDAHA FOR A RECONCILIATION MEETING ("MUSAALAMA"). OUR CONTACT SAID THAT THE RECONCILIATION WAS FOR SHOW ONLY, AND BECAUSE PRESIDENT ASAD WANTS RIF'AT'S SUPPORT TO CONVENE A NEW CONFERENCE OF THE B'ATH PARTY REGIONAL COMMAND (SEE REF B) AND APPOINT HIS SON BASHAR TO THE COMMAND. OUR CONTACT CLAIMED THAT EVEN THOUGH RIF'AT HAS BEEN COMPLETELY MARGINALIZED IN THE GOVERNMENT SINCE RETURNING TO SYRIA FROM EXILE, PRESIDENT ASAD RECOGNIZES THAT RIF'AT IS STRONGER THAN BASHAR. ACCORDING TO THE SYRIAN CONSTITUTION, ANY SUCCESSOR TO THE PRESIDENT MUST COME FROM THE REGIONAL COMMAND. ¶5. (C) IN CONTRAST TO SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ABOVE, OUR SOCIALIST UNITY PARTY CONTACT SAID PRESIDENT ASAD STILL DISTRUSTS RIF'AT IMMENSELY, AND HAS FORBIDDEN MAHIR AND BASHAR EVEN TO SPEAK WITH RIF'AT BEYOND SOCIAL NICETIES. HE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED RUMORS THAT RIF'AT IS CULTIVATING MAHIR OR MAINTAINS GOOD TIES WITH MAHIR AND BASHAR. HE ADDED THAT ONE OF THE REASONS WHY RIF'AT'S SON SAWMAR LEFT SYRIA SUDDENLY LAST YEAR (SEE REF C) IS THAT SAWMAR PULLED A GUN AND POINTED IT AT MAHIR DURING A DISPUTE OVER MONEY. ONCE BASHAR HEARD OF THIS, HE HIT THE ROOF, SHUT DOWN SAWMAR'S RESTAURANT AND RAN HIM OUT OF THE COUNTRY. ¶6. (C) IN A RECENT CONVERSATION WITH US, AN ALAWI FORMER DEPUTY PM AND IN-LAW OF RIF'AT'S (PROTECT) DISMISSED RUMORS THAT RIF'AT IS BACK AT WORK IN HIS OFFICE. ACCORDING TO THIS CONTACT, RIF'AT'S OFFICE IS PRIVATE, AND THUS WAS NEVER SHUT DOWN BY THE GOVERNMENT; AS OF NOW, RIFA'T HAS NOT DECIDED TO RETURN TO THIS OFFICE. OUR CONTACT SAID HE COULD NOT IMAGINE THAT RIF'AT WILL EVER RESUME HIS DUTIES WHILE THE PRESIDENT IS STILL ACTIVE. ONLY IF THE PRESIDENT WERE INCAPACITATED COULD HE IMAGINE RIF'AT RESUMING ANY GOVERNMENT RESPONSIBILITIES. EVEN IN SUCH A SCENARIO, HE ADDED, NO ONE WOULD COME FORWARD AND EXPRESS SUPPORT FOR RIF'AT UNLESS THE DECISION TO BRING HIM BACK INTO THE GOVERNMENT CAME FROM THE TOP, I.E., THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF. ¶7. (C) THE SAME CONTACT CITED IN PARA 6 DESCRIBED THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRESIDENT ASAD AND RIF'AT AS "NORMAL," BUT HE DID NOT SUGGEST ANY RECENT RECONCILIATION OR IMPROVEMENT IN TIES BETWEEN THE TWO. ON THE CONTRARY, HE MENTIONED THAT THE SARG IS DISPLEASED WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITIES OF RIF'AT'S SONS, MANY OF WHOM ARE NOW TRAVELING IN EUROPE AND ARE RUMORED TO BE STARTING A MAGAZINE, SUSPECTED OF BEING "PRO-DEMOCRACY" IN TILT AND U.S.-BACKED. ADDING TO THE GOVERNMENT'S CONSTERNATION, SAWMAR AL-ASAD RECENTLY PUBLISHED AN ARTICLE IN THE EGYPTIAN NEWSPAPER "AL- AHRAM" ABOUT DEMOCRACY. WHILE THE ARTICLE DID NOT MENTION SYRIA, OUR CONTCT SAID THE SARG CONFISCATED THE "AL-AHRAM" ISSUES CARRYING SAWMAR'S ARTICLE. OUR CONTACT ADDED THAT SAWMAR IS STILL OFFICIALLY BANNED FROM RETURNING TO SYRIA. -------------- THE PRESIDENT'S SON-IN-LAW MOVING UP -------------- ¶8. (C) WHILE SPECULATION ABOUT RIF'AT CONTINUES TO VARY, A NUMBER OF EMBASSY CONTACTS HAVE REPORTED THAT PRESIDENT ASAD RECENTLY APPOINTED HIS SON-IN-LAW, 'ASIF SHAWQAT, TO AN IMPORTANT NEW POSITION IN THE SYRIAN MILITARY SECURITY APPARATUS. (COMMENT: SHAWQAT, A BRIGADIER GENERAL IN SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE (SMI),IS MARRIED TO THE PRESIDENT'S ONLY DAUGHTER BUSHRA, WHO GAVE BIRTH LAST YEAR TO TRIPLETS. BUSHRA'S LATE BROTHER BASIL REPORTEDLY WAS STRONGLY AGAINST HER INVOLVEMENT WITH SHAWQAT, AN OLDER DIVORCEE WITH CHILDREN. IN 1993, BASIL REPORTEDLY HAD SHAWQAT PLACED UNDER HOUSE ARREST AND SHAWQAT SUBSEQUENTLY WAS OUSTED FROM A SENIOR POSITION IN SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE (SMI) AND FORCIBLY RETIRED FROM THE MILITARY. SHORTLY AFTER BASIL'S DEATH, BUSHRA MARRIED SHAWQAT. WHILE THE PRESIDENT CONSENTED TO THE MATCH, IT IS BELIEVED THAT HE WAS DISPLEASED WITH HIS DAUGHTER'S DECISION. END COMMENT.) ¶9. (C) LOCAL SPECULATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON THE EXACT SCOPE OF SHAWQAT'S NEW JOB. ACCORDING TO SOME CONTACTS, SHAWQAT IS IN CHARGE OF SUPERVISING ARMED FORCES SECURITY AND COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE. ACCORDING TO OUR SOCIALIST UNITY PARTY CONTACT, SHAWQAT HAS BEEN APPOINTED DIRECTOR OF A NEW BRANCH OF THE INTELLIGENCE/SECURITY SERVICES, "AL-AMN AL-QUWAT," WHICH IS INDEPENDENT OF THE OTHER SECURITY SERVICES BRANCHES (SMI, STATE SECURITY, POLITICAL SECURITY, ETC...) HE COULD NOT GIVE SPECIFICS ON THE MISSION OF THIS NEW SECURITY SERVICE, BEYOND SAYING THAT IT CAN INVESTIGATE ANYONE, "FROM CIVILIANS, TO MILITARY OFFICERS, TO THE PRIME MINISTER." OUR CONTACT MAINTAINED THAT THIS IS AN IMPORTANT PROMOTION FOR SHAWQAT, WHO HOLDS THE RANK OF BRIGADIER GENERAL (AMID),BECAUSE ALL OF THE DIRECTORS OF OTHER SECURITY SERVICES HAVE THE HIGHER RANK OF MAJOR GENERAL (LIWA), OR IN THE CASE OF SMI CHIEF ALI DUBA, THE SUPERIOR RANK LIEUTENANT GENERAL (IMAD). OUR CONTACT PREDICTED THAT SHAWQAT WILL BE PROMOTED TO THE RANK OF MAJOR GENERAL WHEN THE NEXT MILITARY PROMOTION LIST COMES OUT ON JULY 1. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) LOCAL SPECULATION ON RIF'AT'S STANDING REMAINS CONSTANTLY IN FLUX, WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT, DESPITE HIS MARGINAL STATUS WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT, RIF'AT REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN THE SUCCESSION PICTURE, PARTICULARLY AS A POTENTIAL LEADER OF THE ALAWI COMMUNITY. NEVERTHELESS, PRESIDENT ASAD, MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE, SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE NEED TO KEEP A TIGHT LID ON RIF'AT, AND SEEMS UNLIKELY TO MAKE ANY CONCILIATORY GESTURES TO RIF'AT WHICH WOULD UNDERMINE THE DELICATE POSITION OF HIS SON BASHAR. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER, FURTHER ESTRANGING RIF'AT FROM THE CLAN OR TAKING PUNITIVE MEASURES AGAINST RIF'AT'S SONS ALSO SEEMS UNLIKELY, AS THIS COULD ENCOURAGE DIVISIONS WITHIN THE ALAWI COMMUNITY AND FUEL SPECULATION ON REGIME INSTABILITY. ¶11. (C) THE REHABILITATION OF 'ASIF SHAWQAT, MEANWHILE, SEEMS TO REFLECT A CLOSING OF THE RANKS WITHIN THE ASAD FAMILY AND INNER CIRCLE. THE VERY AMBIGUITY OF SHAWQAT'S MISSION PUTS THE ENTIRE SYRIAN SECURITY SERVICES ON NOTICE, IN THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS OPENED UP A NEW CHANNEL OF INFORMATION AND ENTRUSTED A ONCE-DISGRACED FAMILY MEMBER TO OVERSEE THE JOB. PREVIOUS EMBASSY REPORTING ON SHAWQAT INDICATES THAT HE IS AN ALAWI FROM THE TARTUS AREA, AROUND 50 YEARS OLD, AND HAS FOUR CHILDREN FROM HIS PREVIOUS MARRIAGE. IN HIS PREVIOUS POSITION AT SMI, HE WAS REGARDED AS A PROTEGE OF SMI CHIEF ALI DUBA AND REPORTEDLY LED A SMI UNIT WHICH HAD RESPONSIBILITY FOR SUPPRESSING THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD. HIS APRIL 1993 RETIREMENT WAS ALLEGEDLY LINKED TO CORRUPTION CHARGES AND INVOLVEMENT IN SMUGGLING AND NARCOTICS, ALTHOUGH THIS WAS NOT CONFIRMED. END COMMENT. ROSS