ASAD FAMILY UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 002809

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA, SMEC
LONDON FOR TUELLER, PARIS FOR LEAF

E.O.: 12958: DECL: 05/19/07
TAGS: PGOV PINR SY
SUBJECT: ASAD FAMILY UPDATE

REF: A) DAMASCUS 2466, B) DAMASCUS 2065, C) DAMASCUS 826


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR CHRISTOPHER W.S. ROSS,
REASON: 1.5 (B) AND (D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: THE LATEST STORIES ON THE DAMASCUS
RUMOR MILL SUGGEST A CLOSING OF THE RANKS WITHIN THE
ASAD FAMILY, WITH MIXED SPECULATION THAT THE STANDING
OF THE PRESIDENT'S BROTHER RIF'AT MAY BE IMPROVING, AND
A SEPARATE STORY THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS APPOINTED HIS
SON-IN-LAW, 'ASIF SHAWQAT, TO AN IMPORTANT NEW POSTING
IN THE SECURITY SERVICES. END SUMMARY.

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MIXED REVIEWS ON RIF'AT'S STANDING
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3. (C) ACCORDING TO SYRIAN CONTACTS IN THE BUSINESS
AND ACADEMIC COMMUNITIES, THE PRESIDENT'S BROTHER
RIF'AT IS BACK AT WORK AT HIS OFFICE AND SEEMS TO BE
CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENT'S SONS, BASHAR AND MAHIR.
THESE CONTACTS INSIST THAT REPORTS THAT RIF'AT HAS BEEN
OUT OF FAVOR WITH THE PRESIDENT ARE GROSSLY
EXAGGERATED, AND THAT RIF'AT WAS NEVER FULLY OUT OF
GRACE SINCE HE WAS NOT STRIPPED OF HIS TITLE AS VICE
PRESIDENT. IN THE EVENT THE PRESIDENT PASSES AWAY,
THESE CONTACTS MAINTAIN THAT RIF'AT, BOTH AS VICE
PRESIDENT AND THE PRESIDENT'S BROTHER, STANDS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RALLYING THE ALAWIS AND THEIR SUNNI ALLIES
AND ASSUMING THE PRESIDENCY.


4. (C) MEANWHILE A CONTACT IN THE SOCIALIST UNITY
PARTY (PROTECT) TOLD US THAT PRESIDENT ASAD AND RIF'AT
MET MAY 10 IN QARDAHA FOR A RECONCILIATION MEETING
("MUSAALAMA"). OUR CONTACT SAID THAT THE
RECONCILIATION WAS FOR SHOW ONLY, AND BECAUSE PRESIDENT
ASAD WANTS RIF'AT'S SUPPORT TO CONVENE A NEW CONFERENCE
OF THE B'ATH PARTY REGIONAL COMMAND (SEE REF B) AND
APPOINT HIS SON BASHAR TO THE COMMAND. OUR CONTACT
CLAIMED THAT EVEN THOUGH RIF'AT HAS BEEN COMPLETELY
MARGINALIZED IN THE GOVERNMENT SINCE RETURNING TO SYRIA
FROM EXILE, PRESIDENT ASAD RECOGNIZES THAT RIF'AT IS
STRONGER THAN BASHAR. ACCORDING TO THE SYRIAN
CONSTITUTION, ANY SUCCESSOR TO THE PRESIDENT MUST COME
FROM THE REGIONAL COMMAND.


5. (C) IN CONTRAST TO SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED
ABOVE, OUR SOCIALIST UNITY PARTY CONTACT SAID PRESIDENT
ASAD STILL DISTRUSTS RIF'AT IMMENSELY, AND HAS
FORBIDDEN MAHIR AND BASHAR EVEN TO SPEAK WITH RIF'AT
BEYOND SOCIAL NICETIES. HE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
RUMORS THAT RIF'AT IS CULTIVATING MAHIR OR MAINTAINS
GOOD TIES WITH MAHIR AND BASHAR. HE ADDED THAT ONE OF
THE REASONS WHY RIF'AT'S SON SAWMAR LEFT SYRIA SUDDENLY
LAST YEAR (SEE REF C) IS THAT SAWMAR PULLED A GUN AND
POINTED IT AT MAHIR DURING A DISPUTE OVER MONEY. ONCE
BASHAR HEARD OF THIS, HE HIT THE ROOF, SHUT DOWN
SAWMAR'S RESTAURANT AND RAN HIM OUT OF THE COUNTRY.


6. (C) IN A RECENT CONVERSATION WITH US, AN ALAWI
FORMER DEPUTY PM AND IN-LAW OF RIF'AT'S (PROTECT)
DISMISSED RUMORS THAT RIF'AT IS BACK AT WORK IN HIS
OFFICE. ACCORDING TO THIS CONTACT, RIF'AT'S
OFFICE IS PRIVATE, AND THUS WAS NEVER SHUT DOWN BY THE
GOVERNMENT; AS OF NOW, RIFA'T HAS NOT DECIDED TO RETURN
TO THIS OFFICE. OUR CONTACT SAID HE COULD NOT IMAGINE
THAT RIF'AT WILL EVER RESUME HIS DUTIES WHILE THE
PRESIDENT IS STILL ACTIVE. ONLY IF THE PRESIDENT WERE
INCAPACITATED COULD HE IMAGINE RIF'AT RESUMING ANY
GOVERNMENT RESPONSIBILITIES. EVEN IN SUCH A SCENARIO,
HE ADDED, NO ONE WOULD COME FORWARD AND EXPRESS SUPPORT
FOR RIF'AT UNLESS THE DECISION TO BRING HIM BACK INTO
THE GOVERNMENT CAME FROM THE TOP, I.E., THE PRESIDENT
HIMSELF.


7. (C) THE SAME CONTACT CITED IN PARA 6 DESCRIBED THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRESIDENT ASAD AND RIF'AT AS
"NORMAL," BUT HE DID NOT SUGGEST ANY RECENT
RECONCILIATION OR IMPROVEMENT IN TIES BETWEEN THE TWO.
ON THE CONTRARY, HE MENTIONED THAT THE SARG IS
DISPLEASED WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITIES OF RIF'AT'S SONS,
MANY OF WHOM ARE NOW TRAVELING IN EUROPE AND ARE
RUMORED TO BE STARTING A MAGAZINE, SUSPECTED OF BEING
"PRO-DEMOCRACY" IN TILT AND U.S.-BACKED. ADDING TO THE
GOVERNMENT'S CONSTERNATION, SAWMAR AL-ASAD RECENTLY
PUBLISHED AN ARTICLE IN THE EGYPTIAN NEWSPAPER "AL-
AHRAM" ABOUT DEMOCRACY. WHILE THE ARTICLE DID NOT
MENTION SYRIA, OUR CONTCT SAID THE SARG CONFISCATED
THE "AL-AHRAM" ISSUES CARRYING SAWMAR'S ARTICLE. OUR
CONTACT ADDED THAT SAWMAR IS STILL OFFICIALLY BANNED
FROM RETURNING TO SYRIA.

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THE PRESIDENT'S SON-IN-LAW MOVING UP
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8. (C) WHILE SPECULATION ABOUT RIF'AT CONTINUES TO
VARY, A NUMBER OF EMBASSY CONTACTS HAVE REPORTED THAT
PRESIDENT ASAD RECENTLY APPOINTED HIS SON-IN-LAW, 'ASIF
SHAWQAT, TO AN IMPORTANT NEW POSITION IN THE SYRIAN
MILITARY SECURITY APPARATUS. (COMMENT: SHAWQAT, A
BRIGADIER GENERAL IN SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
(SMI),IS MARRIED TO THE PRESIDENT'S ONLY DAUGHTER
BUSHRA, WHO GAVE BIRTH LAST YEAR TO TRIPLETS. BUSHRA'S
LATE BROTHER BASIL REPORTEDLY WAS STRONGLY AGAINST HER
INVOLVEMENT WITH SHAWQAT, AN OLDER DIVORCEE WITH
CHILDREN. IN 1993, BASIL REPORTEDLY HAD SHAWQAT PLACED
UNDER HOUSE ARREST AND SHAWQAT SUBSEQUENTLY WAS OUSTED
FROM A SENIOR POSITION IN SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
(SMI) AND FORCIBLY RETIRED FROM THE MILITARY. SHORTLY
AFTER BASIL'S DEATH, BUSHRA MARRIED SHAWQAT. WHILE THE
PRESIDENT CONSENTED TO THE MATCH, IT IS BELIEVED THAT
HE WAS DISPLEASED WITH HIS DAUGHTER'S DECISION. END
COMMENT.)


9. (C) LOCAL SPECULATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON THE
EXACT SCOPE OF SHAWQAT'S NEW JOB. ACCORDING TO SOME
CONTACTS, SHAWQAT IS IN CHARGE OF SUPERVISING ARMED
FORCES SECURITY AND COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE. ACCORDING TO
OUR SOCIALIST UNITY PARTY CONTACT, SHAWQAT HAS BEEN
APPOINTED DIRECTOR OF A NEW BRANCH OF THE
INTELLIGENCE/SECURITY SERVICES, "AL-AMN AL-QUWAT,"
WHICH IS INDEPENDENT OF THE OTHER SECURITY SERVICES
BRANCHES (SMI, STATE SECURITY, POLITICAL SECURITY,
ETC...) HE COULD NOT GIVE SPECIFICS ON THE MISSION OF
THIS NEW SECURITY SERVICE, BEYOND SAYING THAT IT CAN
INVESTIGATE ANYONE, "FROM CIVILIANS, TO MILITARY
OFFICERS, TO THE PRIME MINISTER." OUR CONTACT
MAINTAINED THAT THIS IS AN IMPORTANT PROMOTION FOR
SHAWQAT, WHO HOLDS THE RANK OF BRIGADIER GENERAL
(AMID),BECAUSE ALL OF THE DIRECTORS OF OTHER SECURITY
SERVICES HAVE THE HIGHER RANK OF MAJOR GENERAL (LIWA),
OR IN THE CASE OF SMI CHIEF ALI DUBA, THE SUPERIOR RANK
LIEUTENANT GENERAL (IMAD). OUR CONTACT PREDICTED THAT
SHAWQAT WILL BE PROMOTED TO THE RANK OF MAJOR GENERAL
WHEN THE NEXT MILITARY PROMOTION LIST COMES OUT ON
JULY 1.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) LOCAL SPECULATION ON RIF'AT'S STANDING REMAINS
CONSTANTLY IN FLUX, WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT,
DESPITE HIS MARGINAL STATUS WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT,
RIF'AT REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN THE SUCCESSION PICTURE,
PARTICULARLY AS A POTENTIAL LEADER OF THE ALAWI
COMMUNITY. NEVERTHELESS, PRESIDENT ASAD, MORE THAN
ANYONE ELSE, SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE NEED TO KEEP A
TIGHT LID ON RIF'AT, AND SEEMS UNLIKELY TO MAKE ANY
CONCILIATORY GESTURES TO RIF'AT WHICH WOULD UNDERMINE
THE DELICATE POSITION OF HIS SON BASHAR. AT THE SAME
TIME HOWEVER, FURTHER ESTRANGING RIF'AT FROM THE CLAN
OR TAKING PUNITIVE MEASURES AGAINST RIF'AT'S SONS ALSO
SEEMS UNLIKELY, AS THIS COULD ENCOURAGE DIVISIONS
WITHIN THE ALAWI COMMUNITY AND FUEL SPECULATION ON
REGIME INSTABILITY.


11. (C) THE REHABILITATION OF 'ASIF SHAWQAT,
MEANWHILE, SEEMS TO REFLECT A CLOSING OF THE RANKS
WITHIN THE ASAD FAMILY AND INNER CIRCLE. THE VERY
AMBIGUITY OF SHAWQAT'S MISSION PUTS THE ENTIRE SYRIAN
SECURITY SERVICES ON NOTICE, IN THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS
OPENED UP A NEW CHANNEL OF INFORMATION AND ENTRUSTED A
ONCE-DISGRACED FAMILY MEMBER TO OVERSEE THE JOB.
PREVIOUS EMBASSY REPORTING ON SHAWQAT INDICATES THAT HE
IS AN ALAWI FROM THE TARTUS AREA, AROUND 50 YEARS OLD,
AND HAS FOUR CHILDREN FROM HIS PREVIOUS MARRIAGE. IN
HIS PREVIOUS POSITION AT SMI, HE WAS REGARDED AS A
PROTEGE OF SMI CHIEF ALI DUBA AND REPORTEDLY LED A SMI
UNIT WHICH HAD RESPONSIBILITY FOR SUPPRESSING THE
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD. HIS APRIL 1993 RETIREMENT WAS
ALLEGEDLY LINKED TO CORRUPTION CHARGES AND INVOLVEMENT
IN SMUGGLING AND NARCOTICS, ALTHOUGH THIS WAS NOT
CONFIRMED. END COMMENT.

ROSS