EGYPT'S MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD - DOWN BUT NOT OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 011981 PARIS FOR LEAF LONDON FOR TUELLER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/07 TAGS: PREL PGOV KISL PHUM PINR EG SUBJECT: EGYPT'S MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD - DOWN BUT NOT OUT ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POL/ECON MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF MILLINGTON FOR REASON 1.5 (D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶2. (C) MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND JOURNALIST SYNDICATE MEMBERS MUHAMMAD ABD AL-QUDUS AND SALAH ABD AL-MAQSUD TOLD US RECENTLY THAT: -- THE LATEST MOVE IN THE GOVERNMENT'S ONGOING CAMPAIGN TO SUPPRESS THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB) WAS THE ARRESTS IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER OF DOZENS OF MB STUDENT ACTIVISTS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. THE GOVERNMENT'S INTENT WAS TO DETER ISLAMIC ACTIVISM ON CAMPUSES PRIOR TO THE ACADEMIC YEAR. -- THE MB WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE JOURNALISTS SYNDICATE AND ELSEWHERE TO OPPOSE THOSE EGYPTIANS WHO ADVOCATE GREATER PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE TIES WITH ISRAEL. -- EGYPT'S MB REMAINS IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH OFFICIALLY RECOGNIZED MB POLITICAL PARTIES IN JORDAN, YEMEN AND ALGERIA. ¶3. (C) THE GOVERNMENT'S CONTINUING ARRESTS AND DETENTIONS OF MB MEMBERS HAS PUT THE ORGANIZATION, WHICH REMAINS ILLEGAL HERE, ON THE DEFENSIVE. ITS LEAFLETS DECRY THE DETENTIONS WITHOUT TRIAL, AND SEEK OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPS' SUPPORT AGAINST THESE ABUSES OF POLITICAL FREEDOMS. DESPITE ITS CURRENT WEAKNESS, HOWEVER, THE MB HAS ROOTS IN EGYPT AT ALL LEVELS OF SOCIETY AND A DEMONSTRATED CAPACITY TO SURVIVE GOVERNMENT CRACK-DOWNS. END SUMMARY. ¶4. (C) EMBOFF MET SEPARATELY WITH MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD LEADERS SALAH ABD AL-MAQSUD AND MUHAMMAD ABD AL-QUDUS NOVEMBER 6 AND 9. BOTH ARE PROMINENT JOURNALISTS WHO WERE ELECTED TO THE 12-MEMBER BOARD OF THE JOURNALISTS SYNDICATE AND WRITE EDITORIALS FOR THE ISLAMIC OPPOSITION PRESS (MAINLY THE TWICE WEEKLY "AL-SHAAB" OF THE ISLAMIC SOCIALIST LABOR PARTY, AND THE WEEKLY "AL-HAQIQAH" OF THE ISLAMIC-ORIENTED LIBERAL PARTY). BOTH HAVE SERVED PRISON TIME FOR THEIR MEMBERSHIP IN THE MB, WHICH IS AN ILLEGAL ORGANIZATION IN EGYPT. -------------- PERCEIVED U.S. ANTI-MUSLIM BIAS -------------- ¶5. (C) ABD AL-QUDUS FOCUSED ON WHAT IS PERCEIVED IN THE EGYPTIAN STREET AS A BIAS IN U.S. POLICY TOWARDS ISRAEL AND AGAINST MUSLIMS. PRESSURING ARAB STATES TO ATTEND DOHA WAS ONE INDICATION, PER ABD AL-QUDUS. HE UNDERSTOOD IN THEORY THE ECONOMIC BENEFIT TO THE ARABS OF DOHA BUT REMAINED ADAMANTLY OPPOSED TO IT. IF THE EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT ATTENDED DOHA, THE EGYPTIANS IN THE STREET WOULD BE ANGRY, HE PREDICTED. ANOTHER INDICATION IS THE APPOINTMENT OF AMERICAN JEWS TO POLICY-MAKING JOBS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. EMBOFF ASKED HIM NOT TO PREJUDGE PERSONS BASED ON THEIR RELIGIOUS BACKGROUNDS, BUT TO FOCUS ON SPECIFIC DIFFERENCES WITH U.S. POLICY. -------------- -------------- GOVERNMENT CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) BOTH MB MEMBERS COMPLAINED ABOUT CONTINUING GOVERNMENT PRESSURE ON THE PROFESSIONAL SYNDICATES. TWO YEARS AGO, FOLLOWING THE ELECTORAL SUCCESSES OF MB AND OTHER ISLAMIC-ORIENTED LEADERS IN THE SYNDICATES, THE GOVERNMENT TOOK STEPS TO SHUT THEM DOWN. ONLY THE JOURNALISTS SYNDICATE IS CURRENTLY OPERATING UNDER ITS ELECTED BOARD. (NOTE: LAWYERS HAVE TOLD US THEY EXPECT NEW ELECTIONS FOR THEIR SYNDICATE IN NEXT APRIL). THE JOURNALISTS SYNDICATE, ELECTED FAIRLY PER ABD AL-MAQSUD IN 1995, IS COMPOSED OF 2 MB MEMBERS, ONE EACH FROM THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY, NASSERIST, WAFD AND SOCIALIST TAGAMMU PARTIES, AND SIX INDEPENDENTS AMONG WHOM ARE SEVERAL ISLAMIC-ORIENTED WRITERS. ¶7. (C) ABD AL-MAQSUD DESCRIBED THE GOVERNMENT'S CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MB: IT STARTED IN EARLY 1995 WITH A SERIES OF ARRESTS AGAINST MB LEADERS IN THE SYNDICATES, LEADING TO A NOVEMBER 1995 MILITARY COURT JUDGMENT AGAINST 54 MB LEADERS. THEY RECEIVED PRISON SENTENCES RANGING FROM THREE TO FIVE YEARS. THE MAIN CHARGE - THAT THEY WERE PLOTTING THE OVERTHROW OF THE GOVERNMENT -- IS COMPLETELY FALSE, PER ABD AL-MAQSUD. THE MB BELIEVES IN BALLOT BOXES NOT VIOLENCE, HE STRESSED. ¶8. (C) THE GOVERNMENT SYSTEMATICALLY PREVENTS MB PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS, ACCORDING TO ABD AL-MAQSUD. IN THE 1995 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 170 MB MEMBERS WERE CANDIDATES BUT NOT ONE WAS ELECTED OWING TO FRAUD, HE SAID. IN THE APRIL 1997 LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS, AGAIN NOT ONE MB CANDIDATE WON. THE GOVERNMENT USED PRESSURE TACTICS, INCLUDING ARRESTS AND DETENTIONS, TO FORCE MANY MB CANDIDATES TO WITHDRAW. FINALLY, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ALREADY COOKED THE RESULTS OF NEXT MONTH'S NATION-WIDE UNIVERSITY STUDENT UNION ELECTIONS, ABOLISHING LISTS OF CANDIDATES WITH ISLAMIC LEADERS AND FORCING OTHERS TO WITHDRAW THEIR NAMES. 33 STUDENTS OF ALEXANDRIA UNIVERSITY WERE ARRESTED FOR BEING MB MEMBERS IN AUGUST, AND ANOTHER GROUP WAS ARRESTED IN SEPTEMBER PRIOR TO THE OPENING OF THE ACADEMIC YEAR, IN ORDER TO DETER ISLAMIC POLITICAL ACTIVITY ON CAMPUS. BOTH ABD AL-MAQSUD AND ABD AL-QUDUS SAID THAT NINE OF THE STUDENTS ARRESTED IN ALEXANDRIA WERE TORTURED IN PRISON (ABD-AL-QUDUS SHOWED EMBOFF A PAMPHLET ON THE ALLEGED TORTURE OF THESE STUDENTS, WHO HAVE SINCE BEEN RELEASED). ¶9. (C) ABD AL-QUDUS SAID HE HAD HELPED FOUND IN 1996 "THE COMMITTEE TO DEFEND PRISONERS OF CONSCIENCE" COMPOSED OF DIVERSE OPPOSITION FIGURES FROM THE MB, SOCIALISTS, NASSERISTS AND WAFDISTS. THE COMMITTEE, WHOSE HONORARY CHAIRMAN IS NOBEL PRIZE WINNER NAGUIB MAHFOUZ, DISTINGUISHES BETWEEN CONVICTED TERRORISTS FROM THE IG, WHOM IT DOES NOT HELP, AND PERSONS DETAINED UNDER MARTIAL LAW WITHOUT A CRIMINAL CONVICTION. THE LATTER NUMBER OVER 20,000 PER ABD AL-QUDUS. (COMMENT: THIS IS UNDOUBTEDLY AN EXAGGERATED NUMBER, THOUGH THE NUMBER OF DETAINEES IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS ESTIMATE A TOTAL PRISON POPULATION OF 32,000 INCLUDING THOSE SERVING SENTENCES AND THOSE BEING HELD PENDING TRIALS AND SENTENCES. END COMMENT). LEAFLETS PRINTED BY THE COMMITTEE EMPHASIZE ITS BROAD BASE OF OPPOSITION SUPPORT, AND LIST DETAINEES WHO REMAIN IN PRISON WITHOUT TRIAL. -------------- -------------- MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD CAMPAIGNS AGAINST THE PRO-PEACE CAMP AND WASAT PARTY (BUT NOT THE COPTS) -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) EMBOFF ASKED BOTH MB LEADERS ABOUT THEIR POSITION, AS ADVOCATES OF GREATER POLITICAL FREEDOMS, ON THE ATTEMPT OF THE JOURNALISTS' SYNDICATE TO DISCIPLINE SYNDICATE MEMBERS LUTFI AL-KHOLI AND OTHERS FOR ADVOCATING GREATER NORMALIZATION WITH ISRAEL. ISN'T THIS CONTRARY TO THE RIGHT TO FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION? BOTH SAID THIS WAS NOT A FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION ISSUE BUT RATHER A QUESTION OF ADHERENCE TO A SYNDICATE GENERAL ASSEMBLY DECISION IN 1980 TO FORBID NORMALIZATION PRIOR TO A COMPLETE PEACE TREATY WITH ALL ARAB PARTIES. (NOTE: AL-AHRAM WRITER LUTFI AL-KHOLI IS CONTESTING THIS SYNDICATE DECISION IN COURT FOR BEING CONTRARY TO THE EGYPTIAN CONSTITUTION'S GUARANTEE OF FREEDOM OF SPEECH.) ¶11. (C) EMBOFF ALSO ASKED ABOUT THE MB'S APPARENT OPPOSITION TO THE ATTEMPT TO ESTABLISH A NEW POLITICAL PARTY ON ISLAMIC PRINCIPLES CALLED AL-WASAT (THE "MIDDLE"). ABD AL-MAQSUD SAID HE AND HIS WIFE HAD BEEN AMONG THE ORIGINAL 71 FOUNDERS OF AL-WASAT BUT WITHDREW FOLLOWING THE MB LEADERSHIP'S DECISION THAT THE MOMENT WAS NOT RIGHT FOR A POLITICAL PARTY. HOW CAN WE HAVE A PARTY WHEN THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT EVEN ALLOW US TO PUBLISH A NEWSPAPER, HE ASKED. HE MINIMIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE FORMER MB MEMBERS WHO CONTINUE TO PURSUE THIS NEW PARTY. ¶12. (C) ON THE ANTI-COPT STATEMENTS MADE BY MB SUPREME GUIDE MUSTAFA MASHOUR IN AN AL-AHRAM INTERVIEW LAST APRIL, ABD AL-MAQSUD DENIED THAT THIS WAS MB POLICY OR PRACTICE. THERE WERE THREE COPTS IN THE MB LEADERSHIP AFTER WORLD WAR II, HE CLAIMED. HE HIMSELF USED TO HAVE A COPT ROOMMATE AND HIS GREATEST ALLY IN THE JOURNALISTS SYNDICATE BOARD ELECTIONS WAS A COPT. THE MB CONSIDERS COPTS EQUAL MEMBERS OF EGYPTIAN SOCIETY, HE INSISTED. -------------- EGYPT MB TIES WITH COUNTERPARTS IN JORDAN, YEMEN AND ALGERIA -------------- ¶13. (C) ABD AL-MAQSUD NOTED THAT IN THREE COUNTRIES MUSLIM BROTHER GROUPS ARE LEGAL POLITICAL PARTIES: THE ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT IN JORDAN; THE REFORM ("ISLAH") PARTY IN YEMEN, WHICH USED TO BE IN THE GOVERNING COALITION; AND THE MOVEMENT FOR A PEACEFUL SOCIETY ("HAMAS") IN ALGERIA, WHICH CONTROLS FIVE GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES. EGYPT'S MB IS IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH EACH OF THESE PARTIES, HE SAID. (NOTE: ABD AL-MUNEIM SAID, DIRECTOR OF AL-AHRAM CENTER, TOLD US THAT MAQSUD HOSTED A DELEGATION FROM ALGERIA'S HAMAS TO EGYPT FOR THE INTER-PARLIAMENTARY UNION MEETING HERE IN SEPTEMBER). OTHER LEGITIMATE ISLAMIC PARTIES IN TURKEY (REFAH) AND IN PAKISTAN ARE NOT MB AFFILIATES BUT DO MAINTAIN TIES WITH THE MB IN EGYPT, HE SAID. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) THE EFFORTS OF ABD AL-MAQSUD AND ABD AL-QUDUS TO PORTRAY THE MB AS JUST ANOTHER POLITICAL ORGANIZATION THAT IS WILLING TO WORK IN A MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM SEEMS TO US TO BE A TACTICAL MANEOUVER RATHER THAN A SINCERE CONVERSION TO DEMOCRATIC PRACTICES. THE GOVERNMENT, OF COURSE, IS NOT CONVINCED AND ALSO PROMINENT LEFT-WING OPPOSITION FIGURES ARE NOT AT ALL UNHAPPY WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S CRACK-DOWN ON THE MB. THE ANTI-MB CROWD SAYS THE ORGANIZATION'S PHILOSOPHY WILL ALLOW IT TO REVERT TO VIOLENT ACTIVISM WHEN THE TIME IS APPROPRIATE. ACCORDING TO THEM, THE MB IS RELATIVELY WEAK RIGHT NOW AND THUS PRACTICING "DISSIMULATION" WHEN IT TALKS ABOUT DEMOCRACY. "DISSIMULATION" IS A TRADITIONAL SHI'ITE DOCTRINE THAT HAS BEEN ADOPTED BY UNDERGROUND SUNNI GROUPS LIKE THE MB. ¶15. (C) THOUGH THE GOVERNMENT HAS SUCCEEDED IN WEAKENING THE MB, WE DOUBT IT CAN SHUT DOWN THIS ORGANIZATION, WHICH HAS A 70-YEAR HISTORY IN EGYPT AND FOLLOWERS AT ALL LEVELS OF SOCIETY. ONE INDICATION OF ITS DIVERSITY: MUHAMMAD ABD AL-QUDUS, BORN INTO CAIRO'S ARISTOCRACY, SEEMS TO HAVE ADOPTED POLITICAL ISLAM AS A REACTION TO HIS FAMILY'S MILITANT SECULARISM. HIS MATERNAL GRANDMOTHER, FATMA AL-YOUSEF, FOUNDED THE LEFT-WING WEEKLY "ROSE AL-YOUSEF" AND HIS FATHER, IHSAN ABD AL-QUDUS, WROTE NOVELS FAMOUS THROUGHOUT THE ARAB WORLD FOR PORTRAYING THE TRAVAILS OF MODERN ARAB WOMEN. THE SON IS ALSO A RESPECTED WRITER OF THE INTELLIGENTSIA CLASS, WHOSE MEMBERS OF ALL PERSUASIONS MAINTAIN OLD SCHOOL TIES AND SIT TOGETHER CHATTING AMIABLY WHILE DISAGREEING WITH EACH OTHER ON VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING. END COMMENT. BATTLE