EGYPT'S MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD - DOWN BUT NOT OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 011981


PARIS FOR LEAF
LONDON FOR TUELLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/07
TAGS: PREL PGOV KISL PHUM PINR EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD - DOWN BUT NOT OUT


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POL/ECON MINISTER COUNSELOR
JEFF MILLINGTON FOR REASON 1.5 (D).

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SUMMARY
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2. (C) MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND JOURNALIST SYNDICATE
MEMBERS MUHAMMAD ABD AL-QUDUS AND SALAH ABD AL-MAQSUD
TOLD US RECENTLY THAT:

-- THE LATEST MOVE IN THE GOVERNMENT'S ONGOING
CAMPAIGN TO SUPPRESS THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB) WAS
THE ARRESTS IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER OF DOZENS OF MB
STUDENT ACTIVISTS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. THE
GOVERNMENT'S INTENT WAS TO DETER ISLAMIC ACTIVISM ON
CAMPUSES PRIOR TO THE ACADEMIC YEAR.

-- THE MB WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE JOURNALISTS
SYNDICATE AND ELSEWHERE TO OPPOSE THOSE EGYPTIANS WHO
ADVOCATE GREATER PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE TIES WITH ISRAEL.

-- EGYPT'S MB REMAINS IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH OFFICIALLY
RECOGNIZED MB POLITICAL PARTIES IN JORDAN, YEMEN AND
ALGERIA.


3. (C) THE GOVERNMENT'S CONTINUING ARRESTS AND
DETENTIONS OF MB MEMBERS HAS PUT THE ORGANIZATION,
WHICH REMAINS ILLEGAL HERE, ON THE DEFENSIVE. ITS
LEAFLETS DECRY THE DETENTIONS WITHOUT TRIAL, AND SEEK
OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPS' SUPPORT AGAINST THESE ABUSES
OF POLITICAL FREEDOMS. DESPITE ITS CURRENT WEAKNESS,
HOWEVER, THE MB HAS ROOTS IN EGYPT AT ALL LEVELS OF
SOCIETY AND A DEMONSTRATED CAPACITY TO SURVIVE
GOVERNMENT CRACK-DOWNS. END SUMMARY.


4. (C) EMBOFF MET SEPARATELY WITH MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
LEADERS SALAH ABD AL-MAQSUD AND MUHAMMAD ABD AL-QUDUS
NOVEMBER 6 AND 9. BOTH ARE PROMINENT JOURNALISTS WHO
WERE ELECTED TO THE 12-MEMBER BOARD OF THE JOURNALISTS
SYNDICATE AND WRITE EDITORIALS FOR THE ISLAMIC
OPPOSITION PRESS (MAINLY THE TWICE WEEKLY "AL-SHAAB" OF
THE ISLAMIC SOCIALIST LABOR PARTY, AND THE WEEKLY
"AL-HAQIQAH" OF THE ISLAMIC-ORIENTED LIBERAL PARTY).
BOTH HAVE SERVED PRISON TIME FOR THEIR MEMBERSHIP IN
THE MB, WHICH IS AN ILLEGAL ORGANIZATION IN EGYPT.

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PERCEIVED U.S. ANTI-MUSLIM BIAS
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5. (C) ABD AL-QUDUS FOCUSED ON WHAT IS PERCEIVED IN
THE EGYPTIAN STREET AS A BIAS IN U.S. POLICY TOWARDS
ISRAEL AND AGAINST MUSLIMS. PRESSURING ARAB STATES TO
ATTEND DOHA WAS ONE INDICATION, PER ABD AL-QUDUS. HE
UNDERSTOOD IN THEORY THE ECONOMIC BENEFIT TO THE ARABS
OF DOHA BUT REMAINED ADAMANTLY OPPOSED TO IT. IF THE
EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT ATTENDED DOHA, THE EGYPTIANS IN THE
STREET WOULD BE ANGRY, HE PREDICTED. ANOTHER
INDICATION IS THE APPOINTMENT OF AMERICAN JEWS TO
POLICY-MAKING JOBS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. EMBOFF ASKED
HIM NOT TO PREJUDGE PERSONS BASED ON THEIR RELIGIOUS
BACKGROUNDS, BUT TO FOCUS ON SPECIFIC DIFFERENCES WITH
U.S. POLICY.

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GOVERNMENT CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
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6. (C) BOTH MB MEMBERS COMPLAINED ABOUT CONTINUING
GOVERNMENT PRESSURE ON THE PROFESSIONAL SYNDICATES.
TWO YEARS AGO, FOLLOWING THE ELECTORAL SUCCESSES OF MB
AND OTHER ISLAMIC-ORIENTED LEADERS IN THE SYNDICATES,
THE GOVERNMENT TOOK STEPS TO SHUT THEM DOWN. ONLY THE
JOURNALISTS SYNDICATE IS CURRENTLY OPERATING UNDER ITS
ELECTED BOARD. (NOTE: LAWYERS HAVE TOLD US THEY
EXPECT NEW ELECTIONS FOR THEIR SYNDICATE IN NEXT
APRIL). THE JOURNALISTS SYNDICATE, ELECTED FAIRLY PER
ABD AL-MAQSUD IN 1995, IS COMPOSED OF 2 MB MEMBERS, ONE
EACH FROM THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY, NASSERIST,
WAFD AND SOCIALIST TAGAMMU PARTIES, AND SIX
INDEPENDENTS AMONG WHOM ARE SEVERAL ISLAMIC-ORIENTED
WRITERS.


7. (C) ABD AL-MAQSUD DESCRIBED THE GOVERNMENT'S
CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MB: IT STARTED IN EARLY 1995 WITH
A SERIES OF ARRESTS AGAINST MB LEADERS IN THE
SYNDICATES, LEADING TO A NOVEMBER 1995 MILITARY COURT
JUDGMENT AGAINST 54 MB LEADERS. THEY RECEIVED PRISON
SENTENCES RANGING FROM THREE TO FIVE YEARS. THE MAIN
CHARGE - THAT THEY WERE PLOTTING THE OVERTHROW OF THE
GOVERNMENT -- IS COMPLETELY FALSE, PER ABD AL-MAQSUD.
THE MB BELIEVES IN BALLOT BOXES NOT VIOLENCE, HE
STRESSED.


8. (C) THE GOVERNMENT SYSTEMATICALLY PREVENTS MB
PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS, ACCORDING TO ABD AL-MAQSUD.
IN THE 1995 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 170 MB MEMBERS
WERE CANDIDATES BUT NOT ONE WAS ELECTED OWING TO FRAUD,
HE SAID. IN THE APRIL 1997 LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS,
AGAIN NOT ONE MB CANDIDATE WON. THE GOVERNMENT USED
PRESSURE TACTICS, INCLUDING ARRESTS AND DETENTIONS, TO
FORCE MANY MB CANDIDATES TO WITHDRAW. FINALLY, THE
GOVERNMENT HAS ALREADY COOKED THE RESULTS OF NEXT
MONTH'S NATION-WIDE UNIVERSITY STUDENT UNION ELECTIONS,
ABOLISHING LISTS OF CANDIDATES WITH ISLAMIC LEADERS AND
FORCING OTHERS TO WITHDRAW THEIR NAMES. 33 STUDENTS OF
ALEXANDRIA UNIVERSITY WERE ARRESTED FOR BEING MB
MEMBERS IN AUGUST, AND ANOTHER GROUP WAS ARRESTED IN
SEPTEMBER PRIOR TO THE OPENING OF THE ACADEMIC YEAR, IN
ORDER TO DETER ISLAMIC POLITICAL ACTIVITY ON CAMPUS.
BOTH ABD AL-MAQSUD AND ABD AL-QUDUS SAID THAT NINE OF
THE STUDENTS ARRESTED IN ALEXANDRIA WERE TORTURED IN
PRISON (ABD-AL-QUDUS SHOWED EMBOFF A PAMPHLET ON THE
ALLEGED TORTURE OF THESE STUDENTS, WHO HAVE SINCE BEEN
RELEASED).


9. (C) ABD AL-QUDUS SAID HE HAD HELPED FOUND IN 1996
"THE COMMITTEE TO DEFEND PRISONERS OF CONSCIENCE"
COMPOSED OF DIVERSE OPPOSITION FIGURES FROM THE MB,
SOCIALISTS, NASSERISTS AND WAFDISTS. THE COMMITTEE,
WHOSE HONORARY CHAIRMAN IS NOBEL PRIZE WINNER NAGUIB
MAHFOUZ, DISTINGUISHES BETWEEN CONVICTED TERRORISTS
FROM THE IG, WHOM IT DOES NOT HELP, AND PERSONS
DETAINED UNDER MARTIAL LAW WITHOUT A CRIMINAL
CONVICTION. THE LATTER NUMBER OVER 20,000 PER
ABD AL-QUDUS. (COMMENT: THIS IS UNDOUBTEDLY AN
EXAGGERATED NUMBER, THOUGH THE NUMBER OF DETAINEES IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS ESTIMATE A
TOTAL PRISON POPULATION OF 32,000 INCLUDING THOSE
SERVING SENTENCES AND THOSE BEING HELD PENDING TRIALS
AND SENTENCES. END COMMENT). LEAFLETS PRINTED BY THE
COMMITTEE EMPHASIZE ITS BROAD BASE OF OPPOSITION
SUPPORT, AND LIST DETAINEES WHO REMAIN IN PRISON
WITHOUT TRIAL.

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MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD CAMPAIGNS AGAINST THE PRO-PEACE
CAMP AND WASAT PARTY (BUT NOT THE COPTS)
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10. (C) EMBOFF ASKED BOTH MB LEADERS ABOUT THEIR
POSITION, AS ADVOCATES OF GREATER POLITICAL FREEDOMS,
ON THE ATTEMPT OF THE JOURNALISTS' SYNDICATE TO
DISCIPLINE SYNDICATE MEMBERS LUTFI AL-KHOLI AND OTHERS
FOR ADVOCATING GREATER NORMALIZATION WITH ISRAEL.
ISN'T THIS CONTRARY TO THE RIGHT TO FREEDOM OF
EXPRESSION? BOTH SAID THIS WAS NOT A FREEDOM OF
EXPRESSION ISSUE BUT RATHER A QUESTION OF ADHERENCE TO
A SYNDICATE GENERAL ASSEMBLY DECISION IN 1980 TO FORBID
NORMALIZATION PRIOR TO A COMPLETE PEACE TREATY WITH ALL
ARAB PARTIES. (NOTE: AL-AHRAM WRITER LUTFI AL-KHOLI IS
CONTESTING THIS SYNDICATE DECISION IN COURT FOR BEING
CONTRARY TO THE EGYPTIAN CONSTITUTION'S GUARANTEE OF
FREEDOM OF SPEECH.)


11. (C) EMBOFF ALSO ASKED ABOUT THE MB'S APPARENT
OPPOSITION TO THE ATTEMPT TO ESTABLISH A NEW POLITICAL
PARTY ON ISLAMIC PRINCIPLES CALLED AL-WASAT (THE
"MIDDLE"). ABD AL-MAQSUD SAID HE AND HIS WIFE HAD BEEN
AMONG THE ORIGINAL 71 FOUNDERS OF AL-WASAT BUT WITHDREW
FOLLOWING THE MB LEADERSHIP'S DECISION THAT THE MOMENT
WAS NOT RIGHT FOR A POLITICAL PARTY. HOW CAN WE HAVE A
PARTY WHEN THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT EVEN ALLOW US TO
PUBLISH A NEWSPAPER, HE ASKED. HE MINIMIZED THE
IMPORTANCE OF THE FORMER MB MEMBERS WHO CONTINUE TO
PURSUE THIS NEW PARTY.


12. (C) ON THE ANTI-COPT STATEMENTS MADE BY MB SUPREME
GUIDE MUSTAFA MASHOUR IN AN AL-AHRAM INTERVIEW LAST
APRIL, ABD AL-MAQSUD DENIED THAT THIS WAS MB POLICY OR
PRACTICE. THERE WERE THREE COPTS IN THE MB LEADERSHIP
AFTER WORLD WAR II, HE CLAIMED. HE HIMSELF USED TO
HAVE A COPT ROOMMATE AND HIS GREATEST ALLY IN THE
JOURNALISTS SYNDICATE BOARD ELECTIONS WAS A COPT. THE
MB CONSIDERS COPTS EQUAL MEMBERS OF EGYPTIAN SOCIETY,
HE INSISTED.

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EGYPT MB TIES WITH COUNTERPARTS IN JORDAN,
YEMEN AND ALGERIA
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13. (C) ABD AL-MAQSUD NOTED THAT IN THREE COUNTRIES
MUSLIM BROTHER GROUPS ARE LEGAL POLITICAL PARTIES: THE
ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT IN JORDAN; THE REFORM ("ISLAH")
PARTY IN YEMEN, WHICH USED TO BE IN THE GOVERNING
COALITION; AND THE MOVEMENT FOR A PEACEFUL SOCIETY
("HAMAS") IN ALGERIA, WHICH CONTROLS FIVE GOVERNMENT
MINISTRIES. EGYPT'S MB IS IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH EACH
OF THESE PARTIES, HE SAID. (NOTE: ABD AL-MUNEIM SAID,
DIRECTOR OF AL-AHRAM CENTER, TOLD US THAT MAQSUD HOSTED
A DELEGATION FROM ALGERIA'S HAMAS TO EGYPT FOR THE
INTER-PARLIAMENTARY UNION MEETING HERE IN SEPTEMBER).
OTHER LEGITIMATE ISLAMIC PARTIES IN TURKEY (REFAH) AND
IN PAKISTAN ARE NOT MB AFFILIATES BUT DO MAINTAIN TIES
WITH THE MB IN EGYPT, HE SAID.

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COMMENT
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14. (C) THE EFFORTS OF ABD AL-MAQSUD AND
ABD AL-QUDUS TO PORTRAY THE MB AS JUST ANOTHER
POLITICAL ORGANIZATION THAT IS WILLING TO WORK IN A
MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM SEEMS TO US TO BE A TACTICAL
MANEOUVER RATHER THAN A SINCERE CONVERSION TO
DEMOCRATIC PRACTICES. THE GOVERNMENT, OF COURSE, IS
NOT CONVINCED AND ALSO PROMINENT LEFT-WING OPPOSITION
FIGURES ARE NOT AT ALL UNHAPPY WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S
CRACK-DOWN ON THE MB. THE ANTI-MB CROWD SAYS THE
ORGANIZATION'S PHILOSOPHY WILL ALLOW IT TO REVERT TO
VIOLENT ACTIVISM WHEN THE TIME IS APPROPRIATE.
ACCORDING TO THEM, THE MB IS RELATIVELY WEAK RIGHT NOW
AND THUS PRACTICING "DISSIMULATION" WHEN IT TALKS ABOUT
DEMOCRACY. "DISSIMULATION" IS A TRADITIONAL SHI'ITE
DOCTRINE THAT HAS BEEN ADOPTED BY UNDERGROUND SUNNI
GROUPS LIKE THE MB.


15. (C) THOUGH THE GOVERNMENT HAS SUCCEEDED IN
WEAKENING THE MB, WE DOUBT IT CAN SHUT DOWN THIS
ORGANIZATION, WHICH HAS A 70-YEAR HISTORY IN EGYPT AND
FOLLOWERS AT ALL LEVELS OF SOCIETY. ONE INDICATION OF
ITS DIVERSITY: MUHAMMAD ABD AL-QUDUS, BORN INTO
CAIRO'S ARISTOCRACY, SEEMS TO HAVE ADOPTED POLITICAL
ISLAM AS A REACTION TO HIS FAMILY'S MILITANT
SECULARISM. HIS MATERNAL GRANDMOTHER, FATMA AL-YOUSEF,
FOUNDED THE LEFT-WING WEEKLY "ROSE AL-YOUSEF" AND HIS
FATHER, IHSAN ABD AL-QUDUS, WROTE NOVELS FAMOUS
THROUGHOUT THE ARAB WORLD FOR PORTRAYING THE TRAVAILS
OF MODERN ARAB WOMEN. THE SON IS ALSO A RESPECTED
WRITER OF THE INTELLIGENTSIA CLASS, WHOSE MEMBERS OF
ALL PERSUASIONS MAINTAIN OLD SCHOOL TIES AND SIT
TOGETHER CHATTING AMIABLY WHILE DISAGREEING WITH EACH
OTHER ON VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING.
END COMMENT.


BATTLE