NATO ENLARGEMENT--TURKISH TAKE ON RUSSIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000231 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL:06 TAGS: MARR PREL TU RS SUBJECT: NATO ENLARGEMENT--TURKISH TAKE ON RUSSIAN VIEWS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ANKARA 00231 081035Z REF: 96 ANKARA 13628 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY ACTING POLCOUNS MARC SIEVERS, EMBASSY ANKARA, REASON 1.5 (B). ¶2. (C) DURING AN OFFICE CALL BY A/POLCOUNS AND POLOFF ON JANUARY 7, TURKISH MFA DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR SLAVIC REPUBLICS ALP KARAOSMANOGLU SUMMARIZED AN EXCHANGE OF VIEWS ON NATO ENLARGEMENT BETWEEN FOREIGN MINISTERS YEVGENIY PRIMAKOV AND TANSU CILLER DURING THE LATTER'S VISIT TO MOSCOW DECEMBER 17-19, 1996. KARAOSMANOGLU'S SUMMARY EXPANDS ON THAT PROVIDED THE AMBASSADOR BY MFA UNDERSECRETARY ONUR OYMEN ON DECEMBER 20 (REFTEL). ¶3. (C) ACCORDING TO KARAOSMANOGLU, PRIMAKOV TOLD CILLER THAT RUSSIA DOES NOT VIEW CURRENT PLANS FOR NATO EXPANSION AS A THREAT TO RUSSIA. HOWEVER, RUSSIA WANTS TO ENSURE THAT AN EXPANDED NATO DOES NOT BECOME "A NEW NAME FOR AN OLD GEO-POLITICAL DIVISION" THAT ISOLATES RUSSIA FROM THE REST OF EUROPE. RUSSIA RECOGNIZES THE HISTORIC IMPORTANCE OF NATO ENLARGEMENT AND ITS OWN EVOLVING RELATIONS WITH NATO AND CONSEQUENTLY WANTS TO PROCEED CAUTIOUSLY IN ORDER TO AVOID "MAKING A GEO-STRATEGIC MISTAKE." ¶4. (C) KARAOSMANOGLU SAID PRIMAKOV CONFIDED TO CILLER THAT "CERTAIN CIRCLES IN RUSSIA," WHO WERE INTERESTED PRIMARILY IN MODERNIZING THE COUNTRY'S ARMED FORCES, DID NOT FAVOR IMPROVED RELATIONS WITH CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ANKARA 00231 081035Z NATO. KARAOSMANOGLU SURMISED THAT PRIMAKOV INTENDED THE TURKS TO ASSUME THESE "CIRCLES" WERE LOCATED WITHIN THE RUSSIAN DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT AND FOUND IN THE SPECTER OF AN ANTAGONISTIC NATO CONVENIENT JUSTIFICATION FOR CLAIMING RESOURCES NEEDED TO UPGRADE RUSSIA'S MILITARY CAPABILITIES. PRIMAKOV THEN MADE A POINT OF ASSURING CILLER THAT, DESPITE THIS ELEMENT OF OPPOSITION, RUSSIAN POLICY MAKERS WERE "READY TO TALK ABOUT RELATIONS WITH NATO," UNDERSTOOD THE CONCEPT OF NATO EXPANSION, AND SUPPORTED A CLOSER/IMPROVED RELATIONSHIP WITH THE ALLIANCE. PRIMAKOV WARNED CILLER, HOWEVER, THAT AS NATO EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MORE MEMBERS, THE ALLIANCE INEVITABLY WOULD ENCOMPASS MORE DISPUTES AND GROW LESS COHESIVE. NOW NATO SUFFERS FROM DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TURKEY AND GREECE, PRIMAKOV ELABORATED, BUT WITH MORE MEMBERS IT WOULD INCLUDE MORE DISPUTES. ¶5. (C) KARAOSMANOGLU REPORTED THAT CILLER RESPONDED TO PRIMAKOV'S STATEMENT OF RUSSIA'S POSITIONS BY CANDIDLY DESCRIBING TURKEY'S VIEWS. FOR TURKEY, NATO ENLARGEMENT COULD NOT BE CONSIDERED IN ISOLATION FROM EXPANSION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU),THE WESTERN EUROPEAN UNION (WEU) AND THE LATTER'S EVOLVING COLLECTIVE SECURITY RESPONSIBILITIES. TURKEY AGREED THAT AN ENLARGED NATO SHOULD NOT ESTABLISH NEW LINES OF DIVISION IN EUROPE. TURKEY'S VIEW WAS THAT ALL THINKING ABOUT EUROPE MUST INCLUDE RUSSIA AS AN INTEGRAL AND IMPORTANT COMPONENT OF THE WHOLE. GROSSMAN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ANKARA 00231 081035Z CONFIDENTIAL NNNN