ALLAH IN ETHIOPIA: MOSTLY QUIET ON THE ISLAMIC FRONT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 ADDIS ABABA 002584


NSC FOR RICE
LONDON FOR YOUNG
PARIS FOR MORAN
NAIROBI ALSO FOR KHARTOUM EMBASSY STAFF
DRL PLEASE SHARE WITH SPECIAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON
RELIGION

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/11
TAGS: PGOV SOCI KISL PHUM PTER PREL KPRP ET
SUBJECT: ALLAH IN ETHIOPIA: MOSTLY QUIET ON THE ISLAMIC FRONT

REFS: A) 94 ADDIS ABABA 009151, B) 96 ADDIS ABABA 005554,
C) 96 ADDIS ABABA 008833, D) ADDIS ABABA 001871,
E) 95 ADDIS ABABA 005809



1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLOFF JEFFREY JACOBS, REASON 1.5
(D) .

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SUMMARY
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2. (C) FEW ISSUES ARE OF GREATER LONG-TERM CONCERN TO
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF
ETHIOPIA (GFDRE) THAN THE THREAT OF MILITANT POLITICAL
ISLAM. AT PRESENT THE GFDRE FACES LITTLE INTERNAL THREAT
FROM ISLAMIC EXTREMIST GROUPS, BUT SPORADIC VIOLENCE
BETWEEN GOVERNMENT FORCES AND ISLAMIC MILITANTS HAS TAKEN
PLACE ALONG THE BORDER WITH SOMALIA, AND ISLAMIC
EXTREMISTS ARE BELIEVED RESPONSIBLE FOR A SERIES OF
RECENT HOTEL BOMBINGS AND AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON AN
ETHNIC SOMALI MINISTER. ALTHOUGH THE 1994 CONSTITUTION
GUARANTEES FREEDOM OF RELIGION, AND THIS IS RESPECTED IN
PRACTICE, PAST REGIMES SUBSIDIZED THE CHRISTIAN ETHIOPIAN
ORTHODOX CHURCH WHILE MUSLIM INSTITUTIONS ATROPHIED. THE
GFDRE IS WORKING DILIGENTLY TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH
MUSLIMS AND TO ASSIST THE SUPREME ISLAMIC COUNCIL (SIC),
THE ONLY GRASSROOTS ISLAMIC ORGANIZATION WITH NATIONAL
SCOPE. MUSLIMS ARE PLEASED WITH THE RELIGIOUS POLICIES
OF THE GFDRE, BUT ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIM COMMUNITY IS IN
DISARRAY AND STRUGGLING TO REORGANIZE. HAVING SAID THIS,
THE NUMBER OF ADHERENTS TO ISLAM IS GROWING FAST AND
MUSLIMS MAY SOON OUTNUMBER THE SLOW GROWING AND
CONSERVATIVE ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH. THIS CABLE
FULFILLS A REQUIREMENT OF THE POST REPORTING PLAN.
END SUMMARY.

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REVAMPED ISLAMIC COUNCIL OCCUPIES NEW OFFICES
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3. (C) POLOFF AND POL/ECON FSN MET WITH SENIOR OFFICERS
OF THE SUPREME ISLAMIC COUNCIL (SIC) IN THEIR NEW OFFICE
ON 20 MARCH. THE SIC MOVED IN LATE 1996 FROM CRAMPED
OFFICES NEAR THE GRAND MOSQUE IN THE DENSELY POPULATED
MARKET DISTRICT TO MORE SPACIOUS ACCOMMODATIONS SEVERAL
KILOMETERS AWAY. THE COUNCIL WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1974 BY
THE FORMER DERG REGIME, FOLLOWING LARGE ISLAMIC
DEMONSTRATIONS AGAINST THE HAILE SELASSIE GOVERNMENT.
MUSLIM LEADERS SEE THEIR ROLE AS AN INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
GFDRE AND ETHIOPIA'S LARGE MUSLIM COMMUNITY. MUSLIMS
CONSTITUTE MORE THAN 40 PERCENT OF ETHIOPIA'S POPULATION
OF AT LEAST 56 MILLION.

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FORMER SIC LEADERSHIP DISMISSED FOR CORRUPTION
-------------- -


4. (C) ALTHOUGH THE COUNCIL IS THE ONLY GRASSROOTS
ISLAMIC ORGANIZATION WITH NATIONAL SCOPE, COUNCIL LEADERS
ARE STRUGGLING TO REORGANIZE AFTER YEARS OF NEGLECT AND
CORRUPTION. THE SIC WAS RESTRUCTURED IN 1992 AND WAS
REVAMPED AGAIN IN OCTOBER, 1996, FOLLOWING THE ARREST AND
IMPRISONMENT OF NEARLY ALL TOP SIC OFFICIALS FOR
CORRUPTION. OF THE SIC LEADERS KNOWN TO THE EMBASSY IN
1994 (REF A),ONLY GENERAL SECRETARY ABDURAZAK MOHAMMED
REMAINS WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION.


5. (C) THE NEW COUNCIL IS MORE STREAMLINED AND PROVIDES
FOR EQUAL REPRESENTATION FOR ALL OF ETHIOPIA'S FEDERAL
STATES. THE COUNCIL CONSISTS OF 121 MEMBERS. EACH STATE
HAS 11 MEMBERS WHILE THE MORE POPULOUS OROMIYA REGIONAL
STATE HAS 12. THE GROUP'S EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE HAS
THIRTEEN MEMBERS. THE FORMER CHAIRMAN, HAJI MOHAMMED
AHMED AMAN, DIED IN LATE 1996 AND WILL NOT BE REPLACED
UNTIL THE PLANNED JUNE 1997 SIC CONFERENCE. THE COUNCIL
HAS ALSO ELIMINATED THE POSITION OF SECOND VICE-CHAIRMAN
AND DEPUTY GENERAL SECRETARY.

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MOST AFFILIATED ISLAMIC ORGANIZATIONS IN LIMBO
-------------- -


6. (C) PREVIOUSLY THE SUPREME ISLAMIC COUNCIL WAS AN
UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION WITH SEVERAL AFFILIATED ISLAMIC
GROUPS (REF A),BUT COUNCIL MEMBERS ACCUSED THE FORMER
LEADERSHIP OF USING THE VARIOUS GROUPS TO MISAPPROPRIATE
FUNDS AND THE AFFILIATED GROUPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
DISARRAY. THE ETHIOPIAN KORANIC ORGANIZATION STILL
EXISTS ON PAPER, BUT IS INACTIVE. THE ETHIOPIAN ULEMA
(MUSLIM CLERICS) ARE EDUCATED INDIVIDUALS WITH FORMAL
RELIGIOUS INSTRUCTION. THE ULEMA DEAL WITH ALL RELIGIOUS
ISSUES AT THE LOWEST POSSIBLE LEVEL. THE COUNCIL IS IN
THE PROCESS OF RESTRUCTURING THE ULEMA SYSTEM WITH THE
GOAL OF PUTTING QUALIFIED INDIVIDUALS IN POSITIONS
NATIONWIDE TO TEACH THE TRUE FAITH TO BELIEVERS. THE SIC
HOPES TO HOLD ELECTIONS TO SELECT ULEMAS PRIOR TO THE
GROUP'S JUNE CONFERENCE.

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DISPUTES AMONG MUSLIM FACTIONS SAID TO BE RESOLVED
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7. (C) MUSLIM LEADERS INSISTED THAT TENSIONS BETWEEN
ETHIOPIA'S SHAFI AND WAHABBI MUSLIMS HAVE SUBSIDED. THE
EMBASSY REPORTED IN 1994 THAT THE TWO GROUPS CLASHED
VIOLENTLY ON MUSLIM HOLIDAYS IN THREE CITIES NATIONWIDE.
COUNCIL LEADERS REPLIED THAT ALL ETHIOPIAN MUSLIMS ARE
SUNNIS AND THAT INTERNAL DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR. SIC
LEADERS EXPRESSED SURPRISE THAT THE EMBASSY HAD EVEN
HEARD OF THE EARLIER DISPUTE.

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SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN THE SIC AND SHARIA COURTS
-------------- -


8. (C) THE COUNCIL AND THE SHARIA COURTS ARE TWO
SEPARATE INSTITUTIONS, ALTHOUGH THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES
OCCASIONALLY OVERLAP. THE SHARIA COURTS WERE ORIGINALLY
ESTABLISHED UNDER HAILE SELASSIE AND WERE EMPOWERED TO
OVERSEE ISLAMIC ISSUES CONCERNING MARRIAGE, DIVORCE,
WILLS AND TESTAMENTS, AND THE CARE AND GUARDIANSHIP OF
MINOR CHILDREN. THE 1994 CONSTITUTION REAFFIRMS THESE
RIGHTS. BECAUSE THE COUNCIL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR RELIGIOUS
ISSUES, THE LEADERS TOLD POLOFF THEIR ROLE IS TO ENSURE
THAT ONLY QUALIFIED MEMBERS SERVE ON THE COURTS.


9. (C) ISLAMIC LEADERS HOPE TO REBUILD THE SHARIA COURT
SYSTEM. THEY ALLEGE THAT UNDER THE PREVIOUS COUNCIL
LEADERSHIP SHARIA COURT JUDGES, WHO HOLD OFFICE FOR LIFE,
WERE SELECTED BASED ON NEPOTISM AND BRIBERY, RATHER THAN
FOR THEIR RELIGIOUS EXPERTISE. AS A RESULT, THE NUMBER
OF SHARIA COURTS DWINDLED AND THEIR ROLE IN ETHIOPIAN
MUSLIM SOCIETY DIMINISHED ACCORDINGLY. COUNCIL LEADERS
HOPE TO CREATE A FUNCTIONING SHARIA COURT IN EVERY
DISTRICT IN ETHIOPIA (COMMENT. THERE ARE MORE THAN SIX
HUNDRED DISTRICTS NATIONWIDE. END COMMENT.)

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GFDRE IS FUNDING SHARIA COURTS
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10. (C) USING THE AMHARA REGIONAL STATE AS AN EXAMPLE,
THE MUSLIM LEADERS SAID THEY HAVE PETITIONED THE REGIONAL
GOVERNMENT THERE FOR MONEY TO HIRE 118 SHARIA COURT
JUDGES. SELECTION IS BASED ON A RIGOROUS WRITTEN
NATIONAL EXAMINATION. FIFTY HAVE ASSUMED OFFICE AND THE
COUNCIL EXPECTS THE REMAINDER TO BE HIRED AFTER THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEW FISCAL YEAR IN JULY. ASKED WHY A
SECULAR GOVERNMENT IS PAYING FOR RELIGIOUS JUDGES, THE
LEADERS REPLIED THAT UNDER THE CONSTITUTION SHARIA COURTS
PROVIDE A JUDICIAL SERVICE AND ARE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE
TO THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE. (COMMENT: SHARIA COURTS
HAVE JURISDICTION ONLY IN SPECIFIED FAMILY DISPUTES
BETWEEN MUSLIMS, AND CAN ONLY BE EMPLOYED WITH THE
CONSENT OF BOTH PARTIES. END COMMENT.)

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MUSLIM LEADERS BELIEVE PROPERTY WILL BE RETURNED
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11. (C) THE SUPREME ISLAMIC COUNCIL IS WORKING CLOSELY
WITH ETHIOPIAN FEDERAL AUTHORITIES TO RECOVER PROPERTY
SEIZED BY THE GOVERNMENT IN DECADES PAST. ALTHOUGH
OFFICIALS OF THE DERG REGIME PERMITTED THE SIC TO FILE TO
RECOVER LAND AND PROPERTY TAKEN AROUND ADDIS ABABA'S
GRAND MOSQUE, THE APPLICATIONS SAT FOR TEN YEARS WITHOUT
RESULT. THE KEY PROBLEM, ACCORDING TO COUNCIL LEADERS,
WAS A TOTAL LACK OF RECORDS. OVER THE PAST YEAR,
HOWEVER, THE GROUP HAS WORKED WITH THE PRIME MINISTER'S
OFFICE AND THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, TO INTERVIEW
LOCAL RESIDENTS TO ESTABLISH PROPERTY RIGHTS. A JOINT
COMMITTEE REPORT IS IMMINENT AND THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY
EXPECTS TO RECOVER SOME OF ITS FORMER PROPERTY SOON.

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ONLY LIMITED CONTACT WITH INTERNATIONAL MUSLIM COMMUNITY
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12. (C) POLOFF ASKED ABOUT THE SUPREME COUNCIL'S
CONTACTS WITH VARIOUS INTERNATIONAL MUSLIM GROUPS. THE
MUSLIM LEADERS SAID THEY HAVE HAD LIMITED CONTACT WITH
THE MUSLIM WORLD LEAGUE. THE ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK
RECENTLY OFFERED TO PROVIDE SCHOLARSHIPS TO STUDENTS OF
ENGINEERING, MEDICINE, AND AGRICULTURE. NEVERTHELESS,
THE MUSLIM LEADERS INSISTED THAT THEIR FIRST PRIORITY HAS
BEEN TO CREATE INTERNAL LINKS TO ETHIOPIAN MUSLIMS.
EXPANDING CONTACTS WITH THE INTERNATIONAL MUSLIM
COMMUNITY IS A SECONDARY GOAL.


13. (C) SOME MONEY IS ARRIVING FROM ABROAD. THE NUMBER
OF MOSQUES IN ETHIOPIA DOUBLED OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS,
FUNDED IN LARGE PART BY PRIVATE MONEY FROM SAUDI ARABIA
(REF E). PRIVATE SAUDI BUSINESSMAN MOHAMMED AL-AMOUDI
HAS BUILT SEVERAL MOSQUES AND KORANIC SCHOOLS, INCLUDING
A NEW COMPLEX IN THE AFAR REGIONAL STATE. WHEN
AMBASSADOR ASKED LOCAL RESIDENTS IN HOSAINA, A ZONAL
CAPITAL IN THE SOUTHERN PEOPLE'S REGION, WHO WAS
FINANCING CONSTRUCTION OF A HUGE, NEW MOSQUE, THE LOCALS
PROFESSED NOT TO KNOW. THE EMBASSY HAS NO REPORTS OF
LIBYAN INVOLVEMENT IN ETHIOPIAN MUSLIM AFFAIRS.

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MUSLIM RELATIONS WITH CHRISTIANS ARE GENERALLY HARMONIOUS
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14. (C) ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIM COMMUNITY HAS HISTORICALLY
FELT MARGINALIZED AND DISCRIMINATED AGAINST BY RULING
CHRISTIAN GOVERNMENTS. PREVIOUS ETHIOPIAN REGIMES
SUBSIDIZED THE CHRISTIAN ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH, WHICH
CLAIMS MEMBERSHIP OF ROUGHLY HALF OF ETHIOPIA'S
POPULATION. ALTHOUGH TENSIONS OCCASIONALLY FLARE UP
BETWEEN CHRISTIANS AND MUSLIMS, THE COUNCIL ASSURED
EMBASSY OFFICERS THAT THE TWO COMMUNITIES LIVE IN
PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE. THE PATRIARCH OF THE ORTHODOX
CHURCH HAS AGREED WITH THAT ASSESSMENT, WITH THE SOLE
EXCEPTION OF ADDIS ABABA, WHERE THE CRUSH OF URBAN LIFE
SOMETIMES BRINGS THE TWO GROUPS INTO CONFLICT (REF C).
CHRISTIAN ELDERS IN THE AMHARA REGIONAL STATE ECHOED THE
COMMENTS OF THE COUNCIL LEADERS. THEY TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR IN FEBRUARY THAT MEMBERS OF BOTH RELIGIONS
HAVE LIVED PEACEFULLY FOR CENTURIES AND HAVE EVOLVED
MECHANISMS TO RESOLVE DISPUTES. INTERMARRIAGE IS NOT
UNCOMMON AND IT IS NOT UNUSUAL TO FIND FAMILIES WITH
PRACTICING CHRISTIANS AND MUSLIMS UNDER THE SAME ROOF.
NEVERTHELESS, ORTHODOX CHRISTIAN ELDERS REPORTED MINOR
QUARRELS, BUT NO SERIOUS VIOLENCE, OVER THE AGGRESSIVE
EVANGELICAL TACTICS OF TWO NEW ARRIVALS: JEHOVAH'S
WITNESSES AND PENTACOSTALS (REF D). DURING THE
AMBASSADOR'S EXTENSIVE TRAVELS IN THE PAST NINE MONTHS,
HE USUALLY ASKS CHRISTIANS AND MUSLIMS ALIKE ABOUT
RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS. THE VERDICT IS
UNANIMOUS; THEY GET ALONG TOGETHER FINE AND THE CURRENT
GOVERNMENT IS TOLERANT OF BOTH GROUPS.

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SIC: NO PLACE FOR AL-ITTIHAD IN ETHIOPIA
--------------


15. (C) COUNCIL MEMBERS DENOUNCED THE MILITANT
FUNDAMENTALIST GROUP, AL-ITTIHAD, AND PREDICTED THE GROUP
WOULD WIN FEW SUPPORTERS AMONG ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIM
POPULATION. THE LEADERS REMINDED US THAT THEY WENT ON
TELEVISION IN JANUARY AND CONDEMNED ALL TERRORIST ACTS.
COUNCIL LEADERS CONTENDED THAT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF
ETHIOPIAN MUSLIMS BELIEVE THAT THEIR RELIGIOUS RIGHTS ARE
PROTECTED UNDER THE NEW CONSTITUTION, THE EXTREMIST
MESSAGE HAS LITTLE APPEAL. THE LEADERS ALSO ACCUSED AL-
ITTIHAD OF MISINTERPRETING THE KORAN AND PREYING ON
IGNORANT MUSLIMS WHO DO NOT UNDERSTAND THEIR RELIGION.
THE GROWING PRESENCE OF TRAINED ULEMAS WILL UNDERMINE AL-
ITTIHAD'S EXTREMIST MESSAGE, THEY BELIEVE.

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PM MELES SAYS AL-ITTIHAD A TROJAN HORSE FOR TERRORISTS
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16. (C) PRIME MINISTER MELES ZENAWI HAS A LESS SANGUINE
VIEW OF THE MILITANT FUNDAMENTALISTS. HE HAS FREQUENTLY
STATED THAT A STATELESS SOMALIA POSES THE GREATEST LONG-
TERM SECURITY THREAT TO ETHIOPIA AND TO THE STABILITY OF
THE REGION. MELES FEARS THAT SOMALIA MAY BECOME A BASE
AND SAFE HAVEN FOR INTERNATIONAL TERRORISTS, CRIMINALS,
AND DRUG TRAFFICKERS, ESPECIALLY AS THE WELCOME MAT FOR
SUCH GROUPS IS WITHDRAWN FROM MORE TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS.
THE PRIME MINISTER HAS WARNED THAT AL-ITTIHAD HAS BECOME
"A TROJAN HORSE FOR ALL TYPES OF TERRORIST GROUPS" AND
THAT "SOME GOVERNMENTS ARE UNDERESTIMATING AL-ITTIHAD
BECAUSE THEY VIEW IT AS A PURELY SOMALI ENDEAVOR."


17. (C) THE PRIME MINISTER BELIEVES THAT AL-ITTIHAD
DRAWS SUPPORT FROM LOCAL COMMUNITIES BECAUSE IT IS THE
ONLY ORGANIZED GROUP IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE NEEDED
GOODS AND SERVICES IN REMOTE DESTITUTE AREAS. THE
EXTREMISTS RECEIVE FINANCIAL AND OTHER SUPPORT FROM IRAN,
IRAQ, SUDAN, LIBYA, AND PRIVATE DONORS IN SEVERAL GULF
STATES. TO COUNTER THE EXTREMISTS, MELES WOULD LIKE TO
SEE THE CREATION OF A FIREWALL ALONG THE ETHIO-SOMALI
BORDER THROUGH THE PROVISION OF CROSS-BORDER HUMANITARIAN
ASSISTANCE TO TRADITIONAL ISLAMIC GROUPS INSIDE SOMALIA.
THE ETHIOPIAN MILITARY CONDUCTS AGGRESSIVE PATROLLING TO
COUNTER AL-ITTIHAD'S LIMITED MILITARY ACTIVITIES
THROUGHOUT THE SOMALI REGIONAL STATE.

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GFDRE FOCUSED ON STABILITY IN SOMALIA AND SOMALI REGION
OF ETHIOPIA
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18. (C) VIRTUALLY ALL SOMALIS ARE MUSLIM. THE GFDRE
HAS DEVOTED SIGNIFICANT SCARCE RESOURCES TO ADDRESS
SOMALI ISSUES. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT MOVED QUICKLY TO
MOBILIZE DONORS TO ASSESS THE SOMALI REGION'S
HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN RESPONSE TO REPORTS OF DROUGHT
AND FAMINE THERE. IN RESPONSE TO THE ONGOING INSTABILITY
IN SOMALIA, ETHIOPIA HOSTED THE SODERE PEACE AND
DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE THAT ATTRACTED 26 SOMALI POLITICAL
FACTIONS, AND THE GFDRE HAS EMBARKED ON A MAJOR
DIPLOMATIC EFFORT TO OBTAIN DONOR FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO
SUSTAIN THE SODERE PROCESS. SINCE EARLY 1995 THE CENTRAL
GOVERNMENT HAS SUPPORTED PEACE AND RECONCILIATION TALKS
BETWEEN FEUDING ETHIO-SOMALI CLANS. TO REINFORCE ITS
NEUTRALITY, THE EPRDF HAS PUT OFF AN APPLICATION FOR
MEMBERSHIP BY THE ETHIOPIAN SOMALI DEMOCRATIC LEAGUE
WHICH NOW RUNS THE REGIONAL GOVERNMENT.

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OTHER MILITANT ISLAMIC GROUPS INACTIVE
--------------


19. (C) OTHER DOMESTIC RADICAL ISLAMIC GROUPS HAVE
SLIPPED INTO OBSCURITY. THE ISLAMIC FRONT FOR THE
LIBERATION OF OROMIYA, IN THE EARLY 1990'S THE MOST
ACTIVE ETHIOPIAN ISLAMIC RADICAL GROUP, HAS FADED FROM
THE SCENE. THE MILITANT WING OF THE OGADEN NATIONAL
LIBERATION FRONT HAS CONFINED ITS ACTIVITIES TO
PERIODICALLY APPEALING FOR FUNDS FROM SAFE POSITIONS IN
EXILE AND FORWARDING PROTEST LETTERS TO WESTERN EMBASSIES
IN THE REGION.

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MUSLIM "MAN-ON-THE-STREET" GENERALLY SATISFIED
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20. (C) DESPITE OCCASIONAL CRITICISM OF SELECT
INDIVIDUALS IN GOVERNMENT, THE EMBASSY'S MUSLIM CONTACTS
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY INSIST THAT THEY HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
THE GFDRE AND REPORT THAT LINES OF COMMUNICATION ARE
OPEN. EVEN IN THE UNDERDEVELOPED SOMALI STATE, WHERE
CITIZENS ARE FRUSTRATED WITH AN INEFFECTIVE AND PROBABLY
CORRUPT REGIONAL ADMINISTRATION, MOST CITIZENS BLAME THE
REGIONAL PRESIDENT - NOT FEDERAL AUTHORITIES - FOR THE
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT. MOST EXPECT FEDERAL AUTHORITIES TO
INTERVENE TO ASSIST THE REGION AND MANY PRAISE THE GFDRE
FOR SENDING TRAINING TEAMS TO THE REGION AND FOR INVITING
THE REGION'S ADMINISTRATORS TO VISIT OTHER REGIONAL
STATES TO OBSERVE AND LEARN.


21. (C) THE ATTITUDE OF MUSLIMS IN THE AFAR REGION IS
POSITIVE. MUSLIM ELDERS AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
IN THE AFAR REGIONAL STATE RECENTLY EXPRESSED THEIR
SATISFACTION TO US WITH THE GFDRE POLICIES OF
DECENTRALIZATION AND REGIONALIZATION. WITH THE CREATION
OF THE AFAR STATE IN 1995, MUSLIM AFARS FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN ETHIOPIAN HISTORY FEEL THEY CAN CONTROL THEIR OWN
DESTINY WITHOUT INTERFERENCE FROM CHRISTIAN HIGHLANDERS.

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ISLAM GROWNG FASTER THAN ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOXY?
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22. (C) WE ARE HEARING ANECDOTAL INFORMATION THAT THE
GROWTH OF ISLAM IN ETHIOPIA MAY BE OUTPACING THAT OF
NEW ADHERENTS TO THE ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH. IN
FACT, MOST MUSLIMS TODAY DISPUTE THE CONVENTIONAL
WISDOM THAT 40 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION IS MOSLEM AND
50 PERCENT ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX WITH THE REMAINING 10
PERCENT PROTESTANT, CATHOLIC AND ANIMIST. THE PAPAL
NUNCIO HAS TAKEN A PARTICULAR INTEREST IN THE ETHIOPIAN
ORTHODOX CHURCH AND HAS HAD A NUMBER OF FRANK
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE CHURCH HIERARCHY. ETHIOPIAN
ORTHODOXY IS WELL KNOWN FOR ITS CONSERVATISM AND LACK
OF PROGRESSIVE IDEAS. MOST OF THE CHURCH LEADERSHIP
ALSO FALLS INTO THIS CATEGORY. THOSE FEW WHO WOULD
LIKE TO MODERNIZE THE CHURCH HAVE CONFIDED TO THE PAPAL
NUNCIO THAT THE CHURCH IS HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY
OBTAINING THE ALLEGIANCE OF YOUNG ETHIOPIANS. AT THE
SAME TIME, THERE IS STRONG RESISTANCE WITHIN THE CHURCH
TO MODERNIZE. THE MORE ENLIGHTENED LEADERS FEAR THIS
IS GOING TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THE STATISTICAL
BREAKDOWN BETWEEN ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX AND MUSLIMS IN THE
COMING YEARS.


23. (C) WHILE THE ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH MAY WELL
BE FACING VERY SLOW GROWTH, WE SEE NO EVIDENCE THAT IS
THE CASE FOR THE MUSLIM POPULATION. ALTHOUGH
STATISTICS ARE LACKING, THE NUMBER OF NEW MOSQUES UNDER
CONSTRUCTION AND INFORMATION BASED ON OUR TRAVEL AROUND
THE COUNTRY SUGGEST THAT ISLAM IS ADDING TO ITS NUMBERS
WITH EASE. WE SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT PROTESTANT GROUPS,
PARTICULARLY THE MODERATE EVANGELICAL MEKANE YESUS AND
PENTECOSTALS ARE ALSO GROWING RAPIDLY. BUT THEIR
GROWTH COMES FROM A MUCH SMALLER BASE, PARTICULARLY THE
PENTECOSTALS. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS SITUATION FOR
THE FUTURE IS CLEAR. SHOULD MUSLIMS BECOME IN THE NOT
DISTANT FUTURE A MAJORITY, WHICH IS A REAL POSSIBILITY,
IT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE THE POLITICAL DYNAMIC OF
ETHIOPIA. BECAUSE THE MUSLIMS ARE POLITICALLY DIVIDED
AND TEND TO RESIDE IN THE PERIPHERY AS OPPOSED TO THE
HIGHLANDS OF ETHIOPIA, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISLAMIC
POLITICAL LEADERSHIP ANYTIME SOON. BUT WE DO NEED TO
BE ALERT TO THE CHANGING DYNAMIC HERE.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


24. (C) ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIMS NOW ENJOY BETTER TREATMENT
THAN AT ANY TIME IN THEIR LENGTHY HISTORY, THIS DESPITE
THE GFDRE'S DEEP CONCERN OVER THE SPREAD OF MUSLIM
EXTREMISM WHICH, IT BELIEVES, IS SUPPORTED BY RADICAL
ELEMENTS IN KHARTOUM AND BY WEALTHY PRIVATE INTERESTS IN
THE GULF STATES.


25. (C) THE GFDRE APPEARS DETERMINED TO UNDERMINE THE
THREAT OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISM BY WORKING CLOSELY WITH
MAINSTREAM MUSLIMS AND BY CLOSELY MONITORING RADICAL
GROUPS IN NEIGHBORING SOMALIA AND SUDAN. NO MILITANT
GROUP POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE GFDRE AT THIS
TIME, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL ARE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TERRORIST
ATTACKS. NEVERTHELESS, AS LONG AS AL-ITTIHAD RECEIVES
OUTSIDE FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND ENJOYS SAFE HAVENS IN
NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES, THE ETHIOPIAN MILITARY CANNOT
COMPLETELY DEFEAT THE EXTREMISTS. SIMILARLY, UNTIL
FUNDAMENTAL POWER-SHARING ISSUES ARE RESOLVED AMONG
COMPETING ETHIO-SOMALI CLANS, THE EXTREMISTS WILL BE ABLE
TO CAPITALIZE ON ANY RESULTING DISSATISFACTION.


26. (C) THE RADICAL ISLAMIC MESSAGE HAS LITTLE APPEAL
FOR MOST ETHIOPIAN MUSLIMS. ONLY IN PERIPHERAL AREAS
WHERE THE FLEDGING REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS HAVE YET TO MAKE
AN IMPACT ON THE OFTEN DESPERATE POPULATION ARE THE
EXTREMISTS MAKING LIMITED HEADWAY. HUNGRY AND THIRSTY
PEOPLE ACT TO SURVIVE, RARELY OUT OF TRUE DEDICATION TO
THE MILITANT CAUSE. NEITHER AL-ITTIHAD NOR OTHER
MILITANT GROUPS SUCH AS THE ISLAMIC FRONT FOR THE
LIBERATION OF OROMIA HAVE ATTRACTED SIGNIFICANT POPULAR
SUPPORT.


27. (C) THE NEW SIC IS BUSILY TRYING TO MAKE UP FOR
YEARS OF NEGLECT AND PROVIDE BETTER SERVICE TO THE
ETHIOPIAN MUSLIM COMMUNITY. THEY ARE PLEASED WITH
RELATIONS WITH THE ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT AND ARE ENJOYING
THEIR NEW-FOUND FREEDOM TO PRACTICE THEIR RELIGION
WITHOUT INTERFERENCE, BUT ARE HAMPERED BY A LACK OF MONEY
AND A SERIOUSLY DETERIORATED MUSLIM INFRASTRUCTURE.


28. (C) AFTER HUNDREDS OF YEARS OF LIVING TOGETHER IN
RELATIVE ISOLATION, THERE ARE FEW BURNING ISSUES THAT
DIVIDE ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIM AND CHRISTIAN COMMUNITIES AND
FEWER STILL THAT ARE LIKELY TO PROVOKE VIOLENT CLASHES
BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS.


SHINN