AFTERMATH OF HAMAS' YAHIYA AYYASH'S ASSASSINATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000267


DEPT FOR NEA/IAI

E.O. 12958: 01/08/06
TAGS: PREL PHUM KWBG KPAL IS
SUBJECT: AFTERMATH OF HAMAS' YAHIYA AYYASH'S ASSASSINATION

REF: TEL AVIV 240 (NOTAL),


1. CLASSIFIED BY DCM
JAMES LAROCCO FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)

GOI REACTION
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1. (U) ALL MEDIA BANNERED THE CELLPHONE KILLING OF
YAHIYA AYYASH. THE PRESS GREETED AYYASH'S DEATH WITH
STATEMENTS SUCH AS "ACCOUNT SETTLED.", "GOOD
RIDDANCE", AND AN EYE FOR AN EYE." "THE ELIMINATION
OF AYYASH...OFFERS THE PRIME MINISTER MEANINGFUL
DIVIDENDS IN THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL FRONT. THE PRESS
TAKES IT FOR GRANTED THAT ISRAEL WAS BEHIND THE
KILLING. FOR ITS PART, JERUSALEM HAS REFRAINED FROM
ANY OFFICIAL COMMENT.


2. (U) PUBLIC SECURITY MINISTER MOSHE SHAHAL TOLD
IDF RADIO JANUARY 7 THAT HE BELIEVES IT IS IN THE
PA'S INTEREST THAT THERE BE QUIET AND STABILITY IN
THE PROCESS AND THAT THE TEST OF THE PA'S BECOMING A
POLITICAL FRAMEWORK LIES IN ITS ABILITY TO IMPOSE LAW
AND ORDER. IN RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER
THE PA COOPERATED IN THE KILLING, SHAHAL SAID:
"...THE PALESTINIANS...SHARE AN INTEREST IN
ELIMINATING TERROR.... IT IS ONLY NATURAL THAT
SECURITY ELEMENTS SHOULD COOPERATE AND EXCHANGE
INFORMATION."


3. (U) ARAB MK'S CONDEMNED THE ASSASSINATION.
SHAYKH ABDULLAH NIMR DARWISH, HEAD OF THE ISLAMIC
MOVEMENT IN ISRAEL, CALLED THE KILLING A BLATANT
VIOLATION OF THE PEACE ACCORDS, WHILE HADASH MK
HASHEM MOHAMMAD CRITICIZED THE OPERATION SAYING "HE
IS IN PRINCIPLE AGAINST ASSASSINATIONS NO MATTER WHAT
THE VIEWS OF THE PERSON KILLED. WE NEED TO CONSIDER
WHERE IT WILL LEAD US."

PA REACTION
--------------


4. (U) ARAFAT SPOKESMAN NABIL ABU RUDEINA STRONGLY
CONDEMNED THE KILLING. THE ISRAELI PRESS QUOTES A
SENIOR PA OFFICIAL AS SAYING THE ASSASSINATION
EMBARRASSED ARAFAT AND THAT THE PA WAS CONCERNED
ABOUT THE EFFECTS ON THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS, AND THE
PROSPECTS OF HAMAS RETALIATING.


5. (U) MAJOR GENERAL ABDUL RAZZAQ AL MUJAYIDAH,
FROM THE PA NATIONAL SECURITY FORCES, SAID THE PA
STARTED AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE ASSASSINATION. AS
OF JANUARY 7, FIVE GAZANS HAD BEEN ARRESTED IN
CONNECTION WITH THE KILLING. ACCORDING TO AN
OFFICIAL IN PA POLICE COMMANDER NASIR YUSIF'S OFFICE,
SECURITY FORCES ARE ON HIGHER ALERT.

HAMAS REACTION
--------------


6. (U) IN ADDITION TO CALLING FOR REVENGE, HAMAS
HAS ACCUSED THE PA OF COLLUDING WITH THE GOI IN THE
ASSASSINATION. HAMAS SPOKESMAN MAHMOUD ZAHAR HAS
DENIED THAT OSAMA HAMMAD, "A SON OF HAMAS", (REPORTED
TO HAVE BEEN INVOLVED WITH THE ASSASSINATION) WAS A
SUSPECT IN CONNECTION WITH THE KILLING, OR THAT
HAMMAD HAD FLED GAZA.

ON THE GROUND
--------------


7. (U) IN THE AFTERMATH OF HAMAS' CALL FOR REVENGE
AGAINST ISRAEL FOR THE ASSASSINATION OF YAHIYA AYYASH
(THE ENGINEER),THE GOI HAS DECLARED ALL AREAS
TRANSFERRED TO PALESTINIAN CONTROL CLOSED MILITARY
AREAS INDEFINITELY. ISRAEL T.V. REPORTED JANUARY 6
THAT THE CLOSURE WAS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL JANUARY
10 AT LEAST.


8. (C) ACCORDING TO MATAK (THE OLD CIVAD),GAZANS
CAN COME INTO GAZA, ISRAELIS CAN LEAVE GAZA, AND
THIRD COUNTRY NATIONALS CAN MOVE BACK AND FORTH.
EMBOFF SAW THESE MOVEMENTS IN ADDITION TO:

-- VIP'S WITH MAGNETIC CARDS CAN GET IN AND OUT OF
GAZA. VIPS WITH PAPER PASSES, WAITING FOR THE
PERMANENT MAGNETIC CARDS CANNOT.

-- GOING TO THE RIDICULOUS, THERE ARE FIFTY GAZAN
TRUCKS WHICH, HAVING BEEN INSPECTED AND CLEARED BY
THE ISRAELIS, REMAIN ON THE ISRAELI SIDE OF THE
BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY, THE DRIVERS OF THE TRUCKS
CANNOT GET TO THEM BECAUSE THE DRIVERS DO NOT HAVE
MAGNETIC CARDS. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIVERS HAVE OFFERED
TO SUBMIT TO A STRIP-SEARCH SO THAT THEY CAN GET TO
WORK, THE IDF HAS REMAINED ADAMANT THAT THEY CANNOT
LEAVE GAZA.

-- THESE "STERILE" TRUCKS WERE PART OF A GOI
INITIATIVE, IMPLEMENTED UNDER U.S. ENCOURAGEMENT, TO
REDUCE THE IMPACT OF CLOSURE ON GAZA'S ECONOMY. THE
TRUCKS, ONCE CLEARED BY THE ISRAELI SECURITY, WERE TO
BE FREE TO TRAVEL BETWEEN GAZAN-ISRAELI DESTINATIONS
WITHOUT RE-ENTERING GAZA.

-- TRUCK CONVOYS FROM GAZA TO ISRAEL CONTINUED
WITHOUT INTERRUPTION IN SPITE OF THE CLOSURE. QARNI
BACK-TO-BACK TRADE ALSO CONTINUED.


9. (C) CAMPAIGNING FOR THE JANUARY ELECTIONS WAS
SUSPENDED FOR TWO DAYS, BUT RESUMED IN A "LOW
PROFILE" WAY ACCORDING TO THE DEPUTY HEAD OF THE
CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION IN GAZA. HE ECHOED OTHER
PALESTINIAN INTERLOCUTORS WHO CALLED THE TIMING OF
THE ASSASSINATION "ATROCIOUS" FOR ELECTIONS. HE DID
NOT HOWEVER, BELIEVE IT WOULD HAVE A LONG-TERM
ADVERSE EFFECT ON THE ELECTIONS--OTHER THAN TO
INCREASE THE SYMPATHY VOTE FOR HAMAS AFFILIATED
CANDIDATES.


10. (C) IN SPITE OF A THREE-DAY NATIONAL MOURNING
PERIOD CALLED BY HAMAS, BUSINESSES IN GAZA REMAINED
OPENED. THE PA ATTORNEY GENERAL SAID THAT "ONLY THE
PA COULD CALL FOR A NATIONAL STRIKE" AND AS
PALESTINIANS ARE NO LONGER WAGING THE INTIFADA, SUCH
A RESPONSE WOULD BE "INAPPROPRIATE."


11. (C) HAMAS HAS COME UNDER CRITICISM FOR
PROVIDING LAX SECURITY FOR AYYASH. ABU ALI SHAHEEN,
A LEADER OF THE SHABEBA (INTIFADA YOUTH) MOVEMENT
(PROTECT) TOLD US THAT GAZANS WERE CRITICIZING HAMAS
FOR NOT PROTECTING AYYASH WELL ENOUGH. HE ADDED THAT
SOME WERE EVEN SPECULATING THAT SOME HAMAS MEMBERS
COLLUDED IN HIS KILLING BECAUSE AYYASH REMAINED A
STAUNCH OPPONENT TO THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) BASED ON OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH PALESTINIAN
ELECTION WATCHERS IN GAZA, WE BELIEVE THAT THE
ASSASSINATION WILL NOT HAVE LONG-TERM EFFECTS ON THE
UPCOMING ELECTIONS, THE TIMING OF HAMAS' RESPONSE,
HOWEVER, MAY WELL HAVE.


INDYK