CONTINUING DISQUIET IN THE TIDIANE ISLAMIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002654 PARIS FOR MORAN REYKJAVIK FOR WAGNER E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/15/06 TAGS: KISL PGOV PINS SG SUBJECT: CONTINUING DISQUIET IN THE TIDIANE ISLAMIC BROTHERHOOD REF: REFS: A) 95 DAKAR 10469 B) DAKAR 194 ¶1. CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL ENTIRE TEXT BY: AMBASSADOR, AMEMBASSY DAKAR. REASON: 1.5 (B) ¶2. BEGIN SUMMARY: A PROMINENT LAWYER FAMILIAR WITH THE INNER WORKINGS OF THE TIDIANE ISLAMIC BROTHERHOOD SAYS THAT IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE JANUARY ATTEMPT ON THE LIFE OF ABDUL AZIZ SY, JR., THE RIVALRY TO SUCCEED THE AGING KHALIFE GENERAL HAS BECOME MORE PRECARIOUS. THE POLICE INVESTIGATION INTO THE AFFAIR WILL PRODUCE NOTHING LINKING HIS CLIENT, CHEIKH TIDIANE SY, TO THE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT, OUR CONTACT PREDICTS. THE OPEN RIVALRY BETWEEN CHEIKH TIDIANE SY AND THE OTHER MAIN CONTENDER, ABDUL AZIZ SY, JR., WILL REMAIN A SERIOUS THREAT TO PEACE WITHIN THIS INFLUENTIAL RELIGIOUS GROUP. PRESIDENT DIOUF IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT CONFRONTATION. END SUMMARY. ¶3. DURING AN APRIL 3 LUNCHEON MEETING WITH DCM, MADICKE NIANG, A PROMINENT SENEGALESE LAWYER AND A PERSON FAMILIAR WITH THE INNER WORKINGS OF SENEGAL'S RELIGIOUS BROTHERHOODS, SAID THE STRUGGLE FOR SUCCESSION TO HEAD THE POWERFUL TIDIANE RELIGIOUS BROTHERHOOD (REF A) REMAINED TENSE AND THAT THE JANUARY ATTEMPT IN THE LIFE OF ABDUL AZIZ SY, JR. (REF. B) HAD ONLY EXACERBATED THE SITUATION. NIANG DISMISSED ANOTHER OF THE KHALIFE GENERAL'S NEPHEWS, MANSOUR SY, AS A SERIOUS CONTENDER, SAYING THE PRINCIPAL RIVALS TO HEAD THE TIDIANE BROTHERHOOD AFTER THE DEATH OF THE AGING AND FRAIL KHALIFE GENERAL WERE ABDUL AZIZ SY, JR., THE KHALIFE GENERAL'S SPOKESMAN, AND HIS BROTHER CHEIKH TIDIANE SY, THE SPIRITUAL GUIDE OF THE BREAKAWAY MOUSTARCHIDINE FACTION. NIANG SAID HE PROVIDED THE LATTER WITH LEGAL COUNSEL. (NOTE: MINISTER OF STATE ABDULAYE WADE AND THE KHALIFE GENERAL OF THE MOURIDE BROTHERHOOD ARE ALSO NIANG'S CLIENTS.) ¶4. THE RIVALRY REPRESENTED A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE STABILITY OF THE COUNTRY, NIANG SAID, IN THAT THE CONTENDERS FOR POWER COULD EASILY LOOSE CONTROL OF THEIR MANY DEVOTED AND SOMETIMES OVERLY ZEALOUS FOLLOWERS. INDEED, THE PERPETRATOR OF THE BOMBING ATTEMPT ON THE LIFE OF ABDUL AZIZ, JR. WAS A FANATICAL FOLLOWER OF CHEIKH TIDIANE SY AND WAS SOLELY RRESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCIDENT, NIANG ASSERTED. WHILE THE POLICE CONTINUED THEIR INVESTIGATION INTO THE AFFAIR, THE INTENDED VICTIM'S ACCUSATION NOT WITHSTANDING, HE PREDICTED THAT THE POLICE WOULD TURN UP NO EVIDENCE OF A PLOT LINKING CHEIKH TIDIANE SY, OR ANYONE CLOSE TO HIM, TO THE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT. HIS CLIENT WOULD NEVER ATTEMPT SO FOOLHARDY AN ADVENTURE SIMPLY BECAUSE HE WOULD BE THE MOST OBVIOUS SUSPECT. FURTHER, CHEIKH TIDIANE SY FULLY REALIZED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOODY CONFRONTATION WITHIN THE TIDIANE BROTHERHOOD WERE ONE OF ITS LEADERS TO BE KILLED. NIANG ALSO POINTED TO CHEIKH TIDIANE SY'S RESTRAINT IN NOT CALLING ON HIS FOLLOWERS FOR SUPPORT DURING THE RECENT MOVE TO EVICT HIM FROM A HOME HE HAD INHABITED (SEE DAKAR 2017). ¶5. AT THE SAME TIME, NIANG WAS NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT IN THE LONG TERM THE RIVALS TO BE THE NEXT TIDIANE KHALIFE GENERAL WOULD BE ABLE TO SETTLE THEIR DIFFERENCES PEACEFULLY. BEFORE THE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT THERE MIGHT HAVE BEEN A CHANCE FOR THE BROTHERS TO SIT DOWN AND TALK. NIANG SAID THAT BEFORE JANUARY HE HAD BEEN ACTIVE IN TRYING TO BRING THIS ABOUT. NOW, HOWEVER, EMOTIONS WERE TOO UNSETTLED. NIANG PROFFERED THAT THE KHALIFE GENERAL HAD ALSO UNDERCUT HIS OWN AUTHORITY BY FAVORING IN TOO PUBLIC A WAY ABDUL AZIZ, JR. AS HIS LIKELY SUCCESSOR. THE KHALIFE GENERAL'S ABILITY TO STEP IN AND SETTLE DIFFERENCES WAS NOW MUCH DIMINISHED AS A RESULT. PRESUMABLY HIS MUCH WEAKENED PHYSICAL STATE ALSO SERVED TO LESSEN HIS AUTHORITY. ¶6. COMMENT: THERE IS SPECULATION THAT THE INVESTIGATION INTO THE JANUARY ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT WILL QUIETLY BE PUT AWAY AND THAT THE CASE WILL NEVER COME BEFORE THE COURTS OUT OF CONCERN THAT A TRIAL AND THE ACCUSATIONS THAT WOULD BE AIRED WOULD BE TOO SERIOUS A THREAT TO THE PEACE. PRESIDENT DIOUF, A MEMBER OF THE TIDIANE BROTHERHOOD, IS ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SUCCESSION STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF HAND. HE CAN BE EXPECTED TO DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO MAINTAIN THE PEACE. JOHNSON