C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002654


PARIS FOR MORAN
REYKJAVIK FOR WAGNER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/15/06
TAGS: KISL PGOV PINS SG
SUBJECT: CONTINUING DISQUIET IN THE TIDIANE ISLAMIC
BROTHERHOOD

REF: REFS: A) 95 DAKAR 10469
B) DAKAR 194


1. CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL ENTIRE TEXT BY:
AMBASSADOR, AMEMBASSY DAKAR. REASON: 1.5 (B)


2. BEGIN SUMMARY: A PROMINENT LAWYER FAMILIAR WITH
THE INNER WORKINGS OF THE TIDIANE ISLAMIC
BROTHERHOOD SAYS THAT IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE
JANUARY ATTEMPT ON THE LIFE OF ABDUL AZIZ SY, JR.,
THE RIVALRY TO SUCCEED THE AGING KHALIFE GENERAL HAS
BECOME MORE PRECARIOUS. THE POLICE INVESTIGATION
INTO THE AFFAIR WILL PRODUCE NOTHING LINKING HIS
CLIENT, CHEIKH TIDIANE SY, TO THE ASSASSINATION
ATTEMPT, OUR CONTACT PREDICTS. THE OPEN RIVALRY
BETWEEN CHEIKH TIDIANE SY AND THE OTHER MAIN
CONTENDER, ABDUL AZIZ SY, JR., WILL REMAIN A SERIOUS
THREAT TO PEACE WITHIN THIS INFLUENTIAL RELIGIOUS
GROUP. PRESIDENT DIOUF IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT CONFRONTATION. END SUMMARY.


3. DURING AN APRIL 3 LUNCHEON MEETING WITH DCM,
MADICKE NIANG, A PROMINENT SENEGALESE LAWYER AND A
PERSON FAMILIAR WITH THE INNER WORKINGS OF SENEGAL'S
RELIGIOUS BROTHERHOODS, SAID THE STRUGGLE FOR
SUCCESSION TO HEAD THE POWERFUL TIDIANE RELIGIOUS
BROTHERHOOD (REF A) REMAINED TENSE AND THAT THE
JANUARY ATTEMPT IN THE LIFE OF ABDUL AZIZ SY, JR.
(REF. B) HAD ONLY EXACERBATED THE SITUATION. NIANG
DISMISSED ANOTHER OF THE KHALIFE GENERAL'S NEPHEWS,
MANSOUR SY, AS A SERIOUS CONTENDER, SAYING THE
PRINCIPAL RIVALS TO HEAD THE TIDIANE BROTHERHOOD
AFTER THE DEATH OF THE AGING AND FRAIL KHALIFE
GENERAL WERE ABDUL AZIZ SY, JR., THE KHALIFE
GENERAL'S SPOKESMAN, AND HIS BROTHER CHEIKH TIDIANE
SY, THE SPIRITUAL GUIDE OF THE BREAKAWAY
MOUSTARCHIDINE FACTION. NIANG SAID HE PROVIDED THE
LATTER WITH LEGAL COUNSEL. (NOTE: MINISTER OF
STATE ABDULAYE WADE AND THE KHALIFE GENERAL OF THE
MOURIDE BROTHERHOOD ARE ALSO NIANG'S CLIENTS.)


4. THE RIVALRY REPRESENTED A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE
STABILITY OF THE COUNTRY, NIANG SAID, IN THAT THE
CONTENDERS FOR POWER COULD EASILY LOOSE CONTROL OF
THEIR MANY DEVOTED AND SOMETIMES OVERLY ZEALOUS
FOLLOWERS. INDEED, THE PERPETRATOR OF THE BOMBING
ATTEMPT ON THE LIFE OF ABDUL AZIZ, JR. WAS A
FANATICAL FOLLOWER OF CHEIKH TIDIANE SY AND WAS
SOLELY RRESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCIDENT, NIANG
ASSERTED. WHILE THE POLICE CONTINUED THEIR
INVESTIGATION INTO THE AFFAIR, THE INTENDED VICTIM'S
ACCUSATION NOT WITHSTANDING, HE PREDICTED THAT THE
POLICE WOULD TURN UP NO EVIDENCE OF A PLOT LINKING
CHEIKH TIDIANE SY, OR ANYONE CLOSE TO HIM, TO THE
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT. HIS CLIENT WOULD NEVER
ATTEMPT SO FOOLHARDY AN ADVENTURE SIMPLY BECAUSE HE
WOULD BE THE MOST OBVIOUS SUSPECT. FURTHER, CHEIKH
TIDIANE SY FULLY REALIZED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOODY
CONFRONTATION WITHIN THE TIDIANE BROTHERHOOD WERE
ONE OF ITS LEADERS TO BE KILLED. NIANG ALSO POINTED
TO CHEIKH TIDIANE SY'S RESTRAINT IN NOT CALLING ON
HIS FOLLOWERS FOR SUPPORT DURING THE RECENT MOVE TO
EVICT HIM FROM A HOME HE HAD INHABITED (SEE DAKAR
2017).


5. AT THE SAME TIME, NIANG WAS NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT
IN THE LONG TERM THE RIVALS TO BE THE NEXT TIDIANE
KHALIFE GENERAL WOULD BE ABLE TO SETTLE THEIR
DIFFERENCES PEACEFULLY. BEFORE THE ASSASSINATION
ATTEMPT THERE MIGHT HAVE BEEN A CHANCE FOR THE
BROTHERS TO SIT DOWN AND TALK. NIANG SAID THAT
BEFORE JANUARY HE HAD BEEN ACTIVE IN TRYING TO BRING
THIS ABOUT. NOW, HOWEVER, EMOTIONS WERE TOO
UNSETTLED. NIANG PROFFERED THAT THE KHALIFE GENERAL
HAD ALSO UNDERCUT HIS OWN AUTHORITY BY FAVORING IN
TOO PUBLIC A WAY ABDUL AZIZ, JR. AS HIS LIKELY
SUCCESSOR. THE KHALIFE GENERAL'S ABILITY TO STEP IN
AND SETTLE DIFFERENCES WAS NOW MUCH DIMINISHED AS A
RESULT. PRESUMABLY HIS MUCH WEAKENED PHYSICAL STATE
ALSO SERVED TO LESSEN HIS AUTHORITY.


6. COMMENT: THERE IS SPECULATION THAT THE
INVESTIGATION INTO THE JANUARY ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT
WILL QUIETLY BE PUT AWAY AND THAT THE CASE WILL
NEVER COME BEFORE THE COURTS OUT OF CONCERN THAT A
TRIAL AND THE ACCUSATIONS THAT WOULD BE AIRED WOULD
BE TOO SERIOUS A THREAT TO THE PEACE. PRESIDENT
DIOUF, A MEMBER OF THE TIDIANE BROTHERHOOD, IS ALSO
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SUCCESSION
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF HAND. HE CAN BE EXPECTED TO
DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO MAINTAIN THE PEACE.


JOHNSON