C O N F I D E N T I A L BANJUL 002424

DEPT FOR AF/W
ALSO FOR AID
DAKAR PASS TO PRAIA
DAKAR FOR RSO, POLOFF
LONDON FOR YOUNG
PARIS FOR MORAN
USEU FOR NAHAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: OCTOBER 1, 2001
TAGS: MCAP MOPS PGOV KDEM GA
SUBJECT: THE GAMBIA: JAMMEH'S VICTORY - VICTORY FOR
THE MILITARY?

REF: (A) BANJUL 2394


1. CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER KIMBERLY KELLY,
REASON 1.5 B & D


2. (C) SUMMARY: AS THE DUST SETTLES FROM THE
ELECTION, MORE IS CREATED AS THE MILITARY TAKE TO THE
STREETS, EVEN THOUGH JAMMEH DISSOLVED THE ARMED
FORCES PROVISIONAL RULING COUNCIL. END SUMMARY.


3. (C) THE PRESENCE OF SOLDIERS ON THE STREETS IN THE
GREATER BANJUL AREA HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN THE
PAST MONTH COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE OVER
THE PAST YEAR. DURING THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN,
YAHYA JAMMEH WAS ALWAYS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
MILITARY BODYGUARD. THE GAMBIA NATIONAL ARMY (GNA)
COMMANDER, LT. COL. JATTA, WAS SEEN AT JAMMEH RALLIES
WEARING JAMMEH COLORS. SOLDIERS MADE IT NO SECRET
WHO THE MILITARY SUPPORTED IN THE ELECTION.


4. (C) THE MILITARY TOOK TO THE STREETS IN FULL FORCE
ON SEPTEMBER 27 AND 28 IN CELEBRATION OF YAHYA
JAMMEH'S VICTORY AT THE POLLS. SEVERAL TRUCK LOADS
OF SOLDIERS DROVE PAST THE EMBASSY, SHOUTING AND
WAVING THEIR FISTS. ONE ELECTION OBSERVER SAID IT IS
AS IF THE MILITARY HAS NOW LEGITIMIZED ITSELF.


5. (C) IN HIS ADDRESS TO THE NATION ON SATURDAY,
SEPTEMBER 28, JAMMEH ANNOUNCED THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
GOVERNMENT OF THE ARMED FORCES PROVISIONAL RULING
COUNCIL, WHICH HAS BEEN THE GOVERNING BODY SINCE THE
JULY 1994 COUP. HE STATED THAT THE CABINET IS THE
80LE PROVISIONAL GOVERNING BODY UNTIL SUCH TIME THAT
THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IN ELECTED.


6. (C) COMMENT: IT APPEARS THAT THE SOLDIERS SEE
JAMMEH'S VICTORY AS A VICTORY FOR THE MILITARY.
THE MILITARY POWER THAT TRAVELLED WITH JAMMEH DURING
HIS CAMPAIGN SERVED AS INTIMIDATION AS WELL AS
PROTECTION (ALTHOUGH WHY HE WOULD NEED ANTI-AIRCRAFT
GUNS (REFTEL) AS PROTECTION IS AN OPEN QUESTION). THE
OVERT PRESENCE OF THE MILITARY ON THE STREETS HAS
PROBABLY HELPED MAINTAIN THE CALM WE HAVE WITNESSED
SINCE THE ELECTION. WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE
MAINTAINED ONCE THE SOLDIERS FINALLY GO BACK TO THE
BARRACKS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.


ROHN