THE GAMBIA: JAMMEH'S VICTORY - VICTORY FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANJUL 002424 DEPT FOR AF/W ALSO FOR AID DAKAR PASS TO PRAIA DAKAR FOR RSO, POLOFF LONDON FOR YOUNG PARIS FOR MORAN USEU FOR NAHAS E.O. 12958: DECL: OCTOBER 1, 2001 TAGS: MCAP MOPS PGOV KDEM GA SUBJECT: THE GAMBIA: JAMMEH'S VICTORY - VICTORY FOR THE MILITARY? REF: (A) BANJUL 2394 ¶1. CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER KIMBERLY KELLY, REASON 1.5 B & D ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: AS THE DUST SETTLES FROM THE ELECTION, MORE IS CREATED AS THE MILITARY TAKE TO THE STREETS, EVEN THOUGH JAMMEH DISSOLVED THE ARMED FORCES PROVISIONAL RULING COUNCIL. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (C) THE PRESENCE OF SOLDIERS ON THE STREETS IN THE GREATER BANJUL AREA HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN THE PAST MONTH COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE OVER THE PAST YEAR. DURING THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, YAHYA JAMMEH WAS ALWAYS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE MILITARY BODYGUARD. THE GAMBIA NATIONAL ARMY (GNA) COMMANDER, LT. COL. JATTA, WAS SEEN AT JAMMEH RALLIES WEARING JAMMEH COLORS. SOLDIERS MADE IT NO SECRET WHO THE MILITARY SUPPORTED IN THE ELECTION. ¶4. (C) THE MILITARY TOOK TO THE STREETS IN FULL FORCE ON SEPTEMBER 27 AND 28 IN CELEBRATION OF YAHYA JAMMEH'S VICTORY AT THE POLLS. SEVERAL TRUCK LOADS OF SOLDIERS DROVE PAST THE EMBASSY, SHOUTING AND WAVING THEIR FISTS. ONE ELECTION OBSERVER SAID IT IS AS IF THE MILITARY HAS NOW LEGITIMIZED ITSELF. ¶5. (C) IN HIS ADDRESS TO THE NATION ON SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, JAMMEH ANNOUNCED THE DISSOLUTION OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE ARMED FORCES PROVISIONAL RULING COUNCIL, WHICH HAS BEEN THE GOVERNING BODY SINCE THE JULY 1994 COUP. HE STATED THAT THE CABINET IS THE 80LE PROVISIONAL GOVERNING BODY UNTIL SUCH TIME THAT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IN ELECTED. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: IT APPEARS THAT THE SOLDIERS SEE JAMMEH'S VICTORY AS A VICTORY FOR THE MILITARY. THE MILITARY POWER THAT TRAVELLED WITH JAMMEH DURING HIS CAMPAIGN SERVED AS INTIMIDATION AS WELL AS PROTECTION (ALTHOUGH WHY HE WOULD NEED ANTI-AIRCRAFT GUNS (REFTEL) AS PROTECTION IS AN OPEN QUESTION). THE OVERT PRESENCE OF THE MILITARY ON THE STREETS HAS PROBABLY HELPED MAINTAIN THE CALM WE HAVE WITNESSED SINCE THE ELECTION. WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE MAINTAINED ONCE THE SOLDIERS FINALLY GO BACK TO THE BARRACKS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. ROHN