POLITICAL PARTY KALEIDOSCOPE: SOME OPPOSITION PARTIES' SUPPORT Z-4, AUTONOMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000817



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E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR

TAGS: War Crimes

SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTY KALEIDOSCOPE: SOME OPPOSITION

PARTIES' SUPPORT Z-4, AUTONOMY





1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT



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SUMMARY

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2. WHILE THE CROATIAN POLITICAL OPPOSITION HAS MOSTLY

FALLEN IN BEHIND THE GOVERNMENT'S POSITION ON TERMINATING

THE UNPROFOR MANDATE HERE, SOME PARTIES, INCLUDING THE

SERBIAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNS),THE ISTRIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY

(IDS) AND THE CROATIAN INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS (HND) HAVE

POINTED OUT THE DANGERS THAT THE GOC DECISION ON UNPROFOR

WILL MEAN FOR CROATIA. THESE THREE PARTIES HAVE NOT

BOUGHT INTO THE NATIONALISTIC RHETORIC THAT HAS BEEN

ECHOED BY THE OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES AND HDZ, AND WHICH

HAS CLOUDED THE PROPOSALS FOR AUTONOMY FOUND IN THE Z-4

PLAN. HND OFFICIALS CONSIDER THE Z-4 PLAN TO BE A SOUND

BASIS FOR FURTHER TALKS. THE IDS CHAMPIONS REGIONAL

AUTONOMY, BUT IS CONCERNED THAT THE Z-4 PLAN WOULD GRANT

AUTONOMY TO SERBS WHILE OTHER ETHNIC GROUPS MUST LIVE WITH

CENTRALIZED AUTHORITY IN ZAGREB. END SUMMARY.



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CROATIAN INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS (HND)

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3. ON FEBRUARY 22 THE AMBASSADOR MET WITH STIPE MESIC,

PRESIDENT OF THE CROATIAN INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS (HND) WHO

SAID THAT HE CONSIDERS THE Z-4 PLAN TO BE A SOUND BASIS

FOR FURTHER TALKS. BROAD AUTONOMY AND DEMILITARIZATION,

HE BELIEVES, ARE A NECESSARY CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURE

FOR SERBS TO AGREE TO REINTEGRATION. HE CITED EVIDENCE OF

CROATIAN WAR CRIMES -- THE PLANNED DESTRUCTION OF SERB

HOUSES AND THE INABILITY OF THE POLICE TO FIND THE

PERPETRATORS, AS WELL AS THE ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT OF

TUDJMAN'S CHIEF BODYGUARD IN THE MURDER OF A SERB FAMILY

IN THE ZAGREB SUBURBS -- AS A MAJOR FACTOR IN SERB

DISTRUST OF THE GOC. HE SAID THAT THE GOC ATTEMPT TO

LIMIT THE RIGHT TO DUAL CITIZENSHIP TO CROATS ONLY IS

UNWORKABLE, THAT RIGHT MUST BE APPLIED TO SERBS, ITALIANS,

AND OTHER MINORITIES ON AN EQUAL BASIS.



4. MESIC THINKS TUDJMAN WILL CONSIDER A REVISED UNPROFOR

MANDATE (UNDER A DIFFERENT NAME) WHEN HE REALIZES THAT

MILOSEVIC IS PLAYING TRICKS. MESIC SAID THAT TUDJMAN'S

VISION OF AN ETHNICALLY PURE GREATER CROATIA IS

FUNDAMENTALLY AT ODDS WITH MILOSEVIC'S GREATER SERBIA.

MESIC THOUGHT THAT A NEW MANDATE WOULD BUILD TRUST BETWEEN

SERBS AND CROATS AND FACILITATE REINTEGRATION IF IT

PROVIDED A SECURE ENVIRONMENT FOR CROATIA'S SERBS AND THE

RETURN OF DISPLACED PERSONS, AS WELL AS ESTABLISHED

CONTROL OF CROATIA'S BORDERS. HE VIEWED TERMINATION OF

THE MANDATE AS A POINTLESS MOVE WHICH WOULD SERVE TO UNDO

ALL THE GAINS ACHIEVED UNDER THE ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE

BUILDING MEASURES AGREEMENT BETWEEN ZAGREB AND KNIN.



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5. IN ONE OF THE FEW FAVORABLE PRESS ARTICLES, PUBLISHED

IN THE WEEKLY "GLOBUS," HND VICE PRESIDENT JOSIP MANOLIC

WROTE THAT Z-4 IS THE "MOST SERIOUS INTERNATIONAL DOCUMENT

OFFERING A SOLUTION TO THE CRISIS IN CROATIA." HE WAS

CRITICAL OF THE GOC FOR NOT PROPOSING THEIR OWN PLAN,

WHICH WAS EMPHASIZED BY MESIC WHEN HE TOLD THE AMBASSADOR

THAT THE GOC SHOULD HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO FILL THE VOID

WHEN THEY CANCELLED THE UNPROFOR MANDATE. MANOLIC

CRITICIZED THE VIEW THAT Z-4 WOULD CREATE A STATE WITHIN A

STATE, WRITING THAT, IN HIS OPINION, CONSTITUTIONAL LAW

GIVES THE SERBS THE RIGHT TO HAVE ADMINISTRATIVE AND COURT

AUTHORITY AS WELL AS PARLIAMENTARY INSTITUTIONS TO PASS

LEGISLATION ON ISSUES OF LOCAL AUTONOMY.



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ISTRIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (IDS)

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6. THE IDS HAS LONG BEEN A CHAMPION OF REGIONAL AUTONOMY,

BUT IS UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE Z-4 PLAN'S GRANTING LOCAL

AUTONOMY ONLY TO SERBS. ON FEBRUARY 14 POLOFF VISITED THE

ISTRIAN PORT CITY OF PULA TO MEET WITH IDS PRESIDENT AND

MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT IVAN JAKOVCIC, PULA'S IDS DEPUTY

















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ACTION EUR-01



INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-02 OASY-00 DODE-00

DOEE-00 FBIE-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-01

ADS-00 M-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-00

PRS-01 P-01 SB-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00

T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 PRMC-01 DRL-09

G-00 /022W

-------------- A9A3F1 231705Z /38

R 231646Z FEB 95

FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB

TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4954

INFO AMEMBASSY MADRID

AMEMBASSY LONDON

AMEMBASSY PARIS

AMEMBASSY ROME

AMEMBASSY BONN

AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA

AMEMBASSY BELGRADE

USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE

JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

USLO SKOPJE

AMEMBASSY VIENNA

AMEMBASSY MOSCOW

AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 000817



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E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR

TAGS: PGOV PREL HR SR BK

SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTY KALEIDOSCOPE: SOME OPPOSITION

PARTIES' SUPPORT Z-4, AUTONOMY



MAYOR ALDO SKIRA, AND PARTY SECRETARY EMIL SOLDATIC. THE

MAIN ISSUE ON THE AGENDA WAS THE RECENT RULING AGAINST

REGIONAL AUTONOMY BY THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT WHICH STRUCK

DOWN 19 PROVISIONS OF THE ISTRIAN COUNTY STATUTE

PERTAINING TO OFFICIAL USE OF THE ITALIAN LANGUAGE AND

DECENTRALIZATION OF LOCAL ADMINISTRATION.



7. SOLDATIC SAID THAT THE IDS'S OPTIONS TO CHANGE THE

COURT'S DECISION ARE LIMITED. THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT'S

RULING WAS FINAL AND THERE WAS NO AVENUE FOR PURSUING AN

APPEAL. IDS, HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO LOBBY THE SABOR

FOR CHANGES IN THE CONSTITUTION. BEYOND THAT THE IDS WILL

TRY TO REFORMULATE SOME STATUTES INTO SOMETHING ACCEPTABLE

TO THE GOC AND CONTINUE TO TEST THE LAW TO SEE HOW MUCH

AUTONOMY ZAGREB WILL ALLOW. THEY ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT NOT

ONLY COULD THE DECISION PROVIDE MOTIVATION TO ANTI-CROAT

EXTREMISTS IN BOTH ITALY AND ISTRIA TO PURSUE MORE VOCAL

CAMPAIGNS FOR SEPARATISM AND BORDER CHANGES, BUT IT ALSO

DID NOT BODE WELL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GOC CONCESSIONS

TO KNIN.



8. ALONG WITH THE SNS, IDS UNANIMOUSLY OPPOSED

TERMINATION OF THE UNPROFOR MANDATE. IN PRIVATE JAKOVCIC

SAID THAT THE GOC DECISION ON UNPROFOR AND THE "RSK'S"

REFUSAL TO EVEN LOOK AT THE Z-4 PLAN MADE HIM, FOR THE

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FIRST TIME, "REALLY SCARED FOR THE FUTURE." BOTH SIDES

HAD TAKEN EXTREME POSITIONS WHICH WERE NOT EASY TO BACK

DOWN FROM, AND THE GOC WAS NOT FACING UP TO THE

POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LOSE A WAR WITH THE "RSK,"

ESPECIALLY WITH BSA AND FRY SUPPORT. HE SAID HE HAD

CONSIDERED THE IDEA OF OFFERING TO LEAD A GROUP OF

OPPOSITION LEADERS TO KNIN IN AN EFFORT TO RESTART

NEGOTIATIONS, BUT ADMITTED THAT THE IDEA HAD PROBLEMS (FOR

INSTANCE, WHAT WOULD THEY DO IF GREETED WITH THE "RSK"

FLAG AND ANTHEM). ALSO, OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES PROBABLY

WOULD NOT SUPPORT SUCH A MOVE BECAUSE MANY ARE SUPPORTING

THE GOC POSITION.



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CROATIAN PEASANTS PARTY (HSS)

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9. THE HSS TYPIFIES THE STANCE ASSUMED BY MOST OF THE

REST OF THE OPPOSITION. NEW HSS PRESIDENT ZLATKO TOMCIC,

IN A CALL ON THE AMBASSADOR NOVEMBER 8, SAID THAT THE HSS

SUPPORTED THE GOC DECISION TO TERMINATE THE UNPROFOR

MANDATE, BUT THEY WOULD SUPPORT A REVISION OF THE MANDATE

(UNDER A DIFFERENT NAME) IF IT PROVIDED GUARANTEES TO

CONTROL CROATIA'S BORDERS. TOMCIC SAID THAT IN GENERAL

THE HSS SUPPORTS THE Z-4 PLAN AS A BASIS FOR DISCUSSION

BUT HAD SERIOUS RESERVATIONS, PARTICULARLY ON THE ISSUE OF

TIES TO SERBIA. TOMCIC CLAIMED THE HSS WAS IN FAVOR OF

ADMINISTRATIVE AUTONOMY FOR THE SERBS, BUT WHEN ASKED BY

THE AMBASSADOR IF THIS MEANT THAT SERBS COULD PURCHASE,

FOR EXAMPLE, SCHOOL TEXTBOOKS FROM SERBIA, TOMCIC

ANSWERED, "ABSOLUTELY NOT." A FLUSTERED SILENCE ENSUED

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WHEN THE AMBASSADOR POINTED OUT THAT THAT WOULD DENY

AUTONOMY TO THE SERBS.



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COMMENT

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10. THE ATTITUDE OF THE HND AND IDS (AND SNS) -- THIRD,

AND, ROUGHLY, SIXTH LARGEST PARTIES IN THE SABOR -- IS A

SMALL HOPEFUL SIGN THAT ATTITUDES AMONG THE OPPOSITION'S

CONSTITUENCIES HAVE NOT SOLIDIFIED AGAINST SERB AUTONOMY

AND THE Z-4. THERE ARE AT LEAST A FEW VOICES CHALLENGING

TUDJMAN'S RATHER UNREALISTIC ASSESSMENT OF WHAT UNPROFOR'S

DEPARTURE WILL MEAN FOR CROATIA.



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