BIHAC SIEGE LIFTED, ATTENTION TURNING TO ASSISTANCE NEEDS, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, NEXT MILITARY MOVES

CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 01 OF 04 ZAGREB 03082 SIPDIS SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ZAGREB 003082 SIPDIS BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: DECL: 8/12/00 TAGS: SUBJECT: BIHAC SIEGE LIFTED, ATTENTION TURNING TO ASSISTANCE NEEDS, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, NEXT MILITARY MOVES -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) POLOFFS, REFCOORD, AND DART VISITED BIHAC AUGUST 11 TO ASSESS HUMANITARIAN SITUATION AND DISCUSS POLITICAL/MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WAKE OF THE GOC OFFENSIVE TO RETAKE "RSK" TERRITORY. UN OFFICIALS COMPLAINED ABOUT THE INADEQUACY OF UN SAFE AREA POLICY WHICH ONLY PROTECTS BIHAC TOWN, WHILE THE ENTIRE POCKET IS IN RANGE OF SERB GUNS. THEY DISCUSSED THE REFUGEE AND DISPLACED PERSON PROBLEM; CURRENTLY THERE ARE ABOUT 40,000 DP'S IN THE BIHAC POCKET, AND PROBABLY BETWEEN 15-20,000 REFUGEES LOYAL TO FIKRET ABDIC (AND POSSIBLY ALSO INCLUDING "RSK" SERBS) ON THE ROAD NEAR THE VILLAGE OF KRSTINJA IN CROATIA. THE UN ASSESSES THAT A FULLY ARMED V CORPS WILL BE ON THE OFFENSIVE AGAIN IN ONE TO TWO WEEKS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 03082 01 OF 04 121603Z TO SECURE THE ENTIRE UNA-SANSKI CANTON. MEANWHILE, LOCAL OFFICIALS PROVIDED US WITH A SHOPPING LIST OF REQUIREMENTS FOR REBUILDING LIFE IN THE CANTON AND DISCUSSED THE GOOD RELATIONS BETWEEN MUSLIM AND CROAT RESIDENTS. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) POLOFFS, REFCOORD, AND DART VISITED BIHAC AUGUST 11 TO ASSESS HUMANITARIAN SITUATION AND DISCUSS POLITICAL/MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WAKE OF THE GOC OFFENSIVE TO RETAKE "RSK" TERRITORY. -------------- -- UNPROFOR VIEWS ON THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION... -------------- -- ¶3. (C) POLOFFS MET WITH THE DANISH UN COMMANDER, COL. JASPER HELSOE (PROTECT),AND CIVIL AFFAIRS OFFICER RUS BALLANTYNE (PROTECT) AT BANBAT HQ IN CORALICI. THEY COMPLAINED THAT THE UN SAFE AREA POLICY WAS GROSSLY INADEQUATE IN THE CASE OF BIHAC, WHERE ONLY THE TOWN WAS PROTECTED, BUT THE ENTIRE POCKET WAS IN RANGE OF SERB GUNS. THEY NOTED THAT THE POWER STATION AND WATER TREATMENT PLANT ARE BOTH OUTSIDE OF THE SAFE AREA AND WERE FREQUENTLY TARGETED ¶4. (U) BOTH STRESSED THAT IT WAS ALL THEY COULD DO TO MANAGE THE VARIOUS FLOWS OF DISPLACED PERSONS IN THE CANTON THAT HAVE OCCURRED ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY OVER THE LAST FOUR YEAR. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE BIHAC POCKET MEANT THAT ANY TIME SHELLING STARTED, LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE WOULD FLEE, USUALLY TO BIHAC TOWN, SEVERELY TAXING LIMITED CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 03082 01 OF 04 121603Z SERVICES AND SUPPLIES. THEY ESTIMATED THAT 20 PERCENT OF THE AREA'S POPULATION FLED FROM ABDIC CONTROLLED TERRITORY TOWARD THE SOUTH. ABDIC'S "REPUBLIC OF WESTERN BOSNIA" ALSO CONTAINED ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF THE AVAILABLE FARM LAND. AS A RESULT, LOCAL AUTHORITIES WERE FORCED TO FEED MORE PEOPLE FROM LESS LAND. THIS PROBLEM, COUPLED WITH THE INABILITY OF AID CONVOYS TO REACH THE POCKET, HAS CREATED A CONTINUING PROBLEM FOR LOCAL OFFICIALS TRYING TO SUSTAIN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION. PRODUCE WAS OFTEN CONSUMED BEFORE THE HARVEST AND LITTLE WAS RESERVED TO PROVIDE SEEDS FOR THE NEXT PLANTING. ¶5. (U) THERE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 40,000 DP'S IN THE BIHAC POCKET, AND PROBABLY BETWEEN 15-20,000 REFUGEES LOYAL TO FIKRET ABDIC (AND POSSIBLY ALSO INCLUDING "RSK" SERBS) ON THE ROAD NEAR THE VILLAGE OF KRSTINJA IN CROATIA. HELSOE HAD BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL AT OBTAINING CLEARANCE FROM THE GOC TO VISIT THESE PEOPLE THE DAY BEFORE (SIMILAR PROBLEMS WITH ACCESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY UNHCR AND ICRC, SEPTEL). HELSOE SAID HE NEEDED BOTH ACCESS TO THE REFUGEES FROM THE GOC AND ASSURANCES FROM THE GOBH THAT THESE MEN WOULD BE COVERED BY THE AMNESTY SHOULD THEY WISH TO RETURN HOME TO CONFIDENTIAL NNNNPTQ4983 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4983 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 03082 02 OF 04 121603Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 OASY-00 SRPP-00 EB-01 FBIE-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-06 L-01 ADS-00 M-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-00 PRS-01 P-01 SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-01 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 PRME-01 PRMC-01 DRL-09 G-00 /030W -------------- E2BE5A 121603Z /38 O 121538Z AUG 95 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6885 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD// CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE//DO/LG/XOX/IN/POLAD// DIA WASHDC USMISSION GENEVA AMCONSUL MUNICH USLO SKOPJE AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY BELGRADE HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// COMSIXTHFLT //N2// USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD// JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO NATO EU COLLECTIVE JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21// CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 03082 02 OF 04 121603Z SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 ZAGREB 003082 SIPDIS BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: DECL: 8/12/00 TAGS: SUBJECT: BIHAC SIEGE LIFTED, ATTENTION TURNING TO ASSISTANCE NEEDS, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, NEXT MILITARY MOVES VELIKA KLADUSA. THE UN NEEDS TO HELP ESTABLISH THE CREDIBILITY OF THE GOBH WITH REFUGEES WHO ARE SCARED OF RETRIBUTION. THERE ARE RUMORS AMONG THE REFUGEES THAT 100 ABDIC FOLLOWERS ARE STILL IN JAIL IN BIHAC FROM LAST YEAR, WHEN THE GOBH OFFERED AN AMNESTY (NOTE: CANTON OFFICIALS CONFIRMED TO US THAT THERE ARE SOME ABDIC FOLLOWERS STILL IN JAIL UNDER WAR CRIMES CHARGES.) THE UN WOULD LIKE GOBH OFFICIALS, POSSIBLY AT THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL, TO TALK TO THE REFUGEES AND ENCOURAGE THEM TO COME BACK. ¶6. (U) WE HEARD FROM BOTH THE UN AND CANTON OFFICIALS THAT A DEAL FOR RETURNING THE ABDIC REFUGEES TO VELIKA KLADUSA HAD BEEN SIGNED BY THE GOC, GOBH, ABDIC, AND REFUGEE REPRESENTATIVES, EFFECTIVE AUGUST 11. IN AN ASIDE, GOBH OFFICIALS OPINED THAT ABDIC MUST BE IN CROATIA IF HE HAD SIGNED THE AGREEMENT. (NOTE: WHEN ATTEMPTING TO PASS THROUGH THE REFUGEES ON OUR RETURN FROM BIHAC WE WERE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 03082 02 OF 04 121603Z TOLD BY PEOPLE ON THE ROAD THAT ABDIC WAS PERSONALLY LEADING THE COLUMN. WE WERE NOT ABLE TO GET TO THE HEAD OF THE COLUMN TO TRY TO FIND ABDIC BECAUSE REFUGEES WERE BLOCKING THE ROAD AND WE HAD TO FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.) -------------- AND THE NEXT MILITARY MOVES -------------- ¶7. (C) UN OFFICIALS IN CORALICI NOTED THAT AS A RESULT OF THE HV DEFEAT OF THE "ARSK," THE PRESSURE ON BIHAC'S NORTHERN BORDER WAS RELIEVED AND V CORPS COULD REDIRECT ABOUT 10-12,000 TROOPS TO THE FRONT LINE WITH THE BSA. ACCORDING TO THE UN, V CORPS NOW HAS A "LIFETIME" SUPPLY OF AMMUNITION (BALLANTYNE NOTED THAT ON ONE OCCASION HE SAW TEN 10 TON TRUCKS MOVING SOUTH CARRYING AMMO AND WEAPONS FOR V CORPS),AT LEAST FOUR TANKS, APC'S, AND ARTILLERY TAKEN FROM ABDIC'S "REPUBLIC OF WESTERN BOSNIA." V CORPS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND EXPECTS TO TAKE PRIJEDOR. THE UN CITED RUMORS THAT THE HVO AND V CORPS HAVE ALREADY LINKED UP AT KULEN VAKUF, ABOUT 30 KILOMETERS SOUTHEAST OF BIHAC ON THE CROATIAN BORDER. -------------- CANTON GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATIVES - AID NEEDS -------------- ¶8. (U) IN BIHAC TOWN, THE DELEGATION MET WITH CANTON GOVERNOR VELADZIC, PRESIDENT OF THE CANTON GOVERNMENT FERIZOVIC, AND CANTON PARLIAMENT PRESIDENT ADEM BORIC. ALL THREE WERE EUPHORIC THAT THE CANTON HAD FINALLY BEEN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 03082 02 OF 04 121603Z LIBERATED FROM SERBIAN ENCIRCLEMENT. ONLY ONE FRONT REMAINED INSTEAD OF FOUR, FERIZOVIC OFTEN REPEATED. EVEN SO, ALL AREAS OF THE CANTON STILL REMAINED WITHIN REACH OF BSA HEAVY WEAPONS. BIHAC SAFE AREA WAS SHELLED REGULARLY, RECEIVING 6 SHELLS LATE ON AUGUST 9. THE GOVERNOR OUTLINED A LONG WISH LIST OF ITEMS THAT THE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDED. HE WAS CRITICAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S LACK OF IMMEDIATE RESPONSE TO THE CHANGING HUMANITARIAN SITUATION. FIVE DAYS AFTER ITS LIBERATION, ONLY A "SYMBOLIC QUANTITY" OF ASSISTANCE HAD ARRIVED DESPITE OPEN ROADS FROM CROATIA, VELADZIC INSISTED. (NOTE: THE QUICKEST ROUTE FROM ZAGREB TO VELIKA KLADUSA, THROUGH VOJNIC, WAS BLOCKED IN CROATIA ON AUGUST 11 BY FLEEING COLUMNS OF REFUGEES LOYAL TO OPPORTUNISTIC MUSLIM LEADER FIKRET ABDIC. SEE SEPTEL. END NOTE.) ¶9. (U) ONLY ONE CONVOY HAD ARRIVED IN THE AREA FOR 13 MONTHS, FERIZOVIC STATED THE POCKET'S POPULATION HAD BEEN CUT OFF FOR FOUR YEARS AND EVERYONE INSIDE, EITHER IN THEIR OWN HOME OR DISPLACED, SUFFERED EQUALLY. VELADZIC'S WISH LIST FOLLOWS IN HIS ORDER OF NECESSITY: CONFIDENTIAL NNNNPTQ4984 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4984 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 03082 03 OF 04 121603Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 OASY-00 SRPP-00 EB-01 FBIE-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-06 L-01 ADS-00 M-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-00 PRS-01 P-01 SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-01 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 PRME-01 PRMC-01 DRL-09 G-00 /030W -------------- E2BE60 121604Z /38 O 121538Z AUG 95 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6886 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD// CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE//DO/LG/XOX/IN/POLAD// DIA WASHDC USMISSION GENEVA AMCONSUL MUNICH USLO SKOPJE AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY BELGRADE HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// COMSIXTHFLT //N2// USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD// JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO NATO EU COLLECTIVE JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21// CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 03082 03 OF 04 121603Z SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 ZAGREB 003082 SIPDIS BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: DECL: 8/12/00 TAGS: SUBJECT: BIHAC SIEGE LIFTED, ATTENTION TURNING TO ASSISTANCE NEEDS, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, NEXT MILITARY MOVES -- IMMEDIATE NEEDS WERE FOOD, SHOES, AND CLOTHING, ESPECIALLY FOR CHILDREN; -- MEDICAL EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES, VETERINARY SU PPLIES, RESERVE PARTS FOR HOSPITAL MACHINES; -- SCHOOL SUPPLIES AND BOOKS; -- SHELTER MATERIALS FOR IMMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM HOUSING; -- IMPROVEMENTS FOR INDUSTRIAL PLANTS DESTROYED BY SHELLING; -- IMPROVEMENTS IN COMMUNAL SERVICES SUCH AS WATER, ELECTRICITY, TELEPHONE COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 03082 03 OF 04 121603Z AND GARBAGE DISPOSAL; -- BUSES AND TRUCKS TO BE USED FOR INTER-MUNICIPAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT; ¶10. (U) VELADZIC BELIEVED THAT THE PERFECT OPPORTUNITY NOW EXISTED TO START UP "REAL" LIFE AGAIN. THE ENCLAVE WANTED TO STOP ITS DEPENDENCY ON HUMANITARIAN HELP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. HE URGED THAT ASSISTANCE BE DIRECTED TOWARDS RESTARTING INDUSTRIES AND ALLOWING PEOPLE TO EARN A LIVELIHOOD, SO THEY WOULD NO LONGER BE DEPENDENT ON AID. -------------- POLITICAL SITUATION IN BIHAC AND CAZIN -------------- ¶11. (U) CANTON PRESIDENT FERIZOVIC STRESSED THAT, ALTHOUGH NINETY PERCENT MUSLIM, THE CANTON WELCOMED ALL NATIONALITIES. HE STRESSED THAT A GENERAL AMNESTY WOULD BE GRANTED FOR EVERYONE WHO FOUGHT AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT, BUT WAR CRIMINALS (PARTICULARLY ABDIC) WOULD BE PURSUED. FERIZOVIC SAID THAT THERE IS EXTREMELY GOOD COOPERATION WITH THE CROATIAN POPULATION WHICH COULD BE AN EXAMPLE FOR THE REST OF BOSNIA. (THIS POINT WAS MENTIONED EARLIER BY BALLANTYNE, WHO NOTED THERE IS AN HVO BRIGADE WITH V CORPS.) IT WAS PROUDLY NOTED THAT THE CANTONAL GOVERNMENT WAS FORMED IN 15 DAYS AFTER THE MAY 27 MEETING OF THE LOCAL PARLIAMENT. LOCAL GOVERNMENT MINISTERS COME FROM BOTH THE DOMINANT MUSLIM SDA AND ALSO THE CROAT HDZ. ¶12. (U) FERIZOVIC SAID THAT AT LEAST IN BIHAC, THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 03082 03 OF 04 121603Z FEDERATION AND REPUBLIC GOVERNMENTS ARE FULLY INTEGRATED. THE CANTONAL AUTHORITIES ARE MOVING TO ESTABLISH BORDER CONTROLS AND ARE PURSUING CONTACTS WITH THE GOC ON ISSUES SUCH AS ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION AND MAIL. -------------- VILLAGE SCENES -------------- ¶13. (U) DURING OUR DRIVE THROUGH THE POCKET WE SAW LIFE RETURNING TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF NORMALITY. A NUMBER OF PEOPLE WERE OUT AND ABOUT EVEN IN THE TOWNS, SUNBATHING, AND PLAYING IN THE RIVERS. THE BIHAC AUTHORITIES AND V CORPS ESCORT SHOWED US OUTLYING VILLAGES DESTROYED BY THE "ARSK." IN ZAVALJE, A CROATIAN VILLAGE, ONE OLD WOMAN HAD RETURNED THAT SAME DAY TO CHECK ON HER PROPERTY. IT HAD BEEN LIBERATED ONLY DAYS BEFORE. IN THE MUSLIM VILLAGE OF SOKOLAC, LIBERATED BY THE ABH A FEW MONTHS BEFORE, WE MET AN ELDERLY MAN WHO RETURNED TO HIS BURNED OUT HOUSE AND PROPERTY EVERY SO OFTEN TO FIX SMALL DETAILS IN HIS HOUSE AND TO CUT HIS LAWN. CONFIDENTIAL NNNNPTQ4985 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4985 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 03082 04 OF 04 121604Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 OASY-00 SRPP-00 EB-01 FBIE-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-06 L-01 ADS-00 M-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-00 PRS-01 P-01 SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-01 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 PRME-01 PRMC-01 DRL-09 G-00 /030W -------------- E2BE65 121604Z /38 O 121538Z AUG 95 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6887 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD// CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE//DO/LG/XOX/IN/POLAD// DIA WASHDC USMISSION GENEVA AMCONSUL MUNICH USLO SKOPJE AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY BELGRADE HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// COMSIXTHFLT //N2// USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD// JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO NATO EU COLLECTIVE JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21// CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 03082 04 OF 04 121604Z SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 ZAGREB 003082 SIPDIS BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: DECL: 8/12/00 TAGS: SUBJECT: BIHAC SIEGE LIFTED, ATTENTION TURNING TO ASSISTANCE NEEDS, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, NEXT MILITARY MOVES ¶14. SARAJEVO MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. FINN CONFIDENTIAL NNNN