UN OFFICIALS SAY "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 002784 SIPDIS USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL OSCE E.O. 12356: DECL: 7/25/00 TAGS: SUBJECT: UN OFFICIALS SAY "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED, EXPECT GOC REACTION BEFORE NOVEMBER ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. -------------- "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED -------------- ¶2. ON JULY 25, POLOFFS MET WITH UNPF CHIEF OF STAFF GENERAL KOLSTEREN TO DISCUSS THE "ARSK" OFFENSIVE IN BIHAC AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GOC REACTION. KOLSTEREN TOLD US THAT THE UN'S ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN BIHAC LEADS TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THE OBJECTIVE OF THE "ARSK" OPERATION IS ONLY TO RETAKE AREAS OF THE POCKET HELD BY ABDIC PRIOR TO HIS EXPULSION BY THE GOBH V CORPS LAST YEAR. ATTACKS BY THE BSA ARE BELIEVED TO BE ONLY DIVERSIONARY. "ARSK-" ABDIC ACTION WOULD CREATE A RUFFER ZONE TO PROTECT SERB VILLAGES FROM ATTACKS BY GOBH FORCES, WHICH HE RLAMED FOR PRECIPITATING THE ATTACKS. HE SAID THAT GORH MILITARY COMMAND LOCATED V CORPS HQ IN DOWNTOWN BIHAC IN A DISINGENUOUS EFFORT TO DRAW NATO AIRSTRIKES ON ATTACKING SERBS. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02784 01 OF 02 251724Z ¶3. MEANWHILE, UN SENIOR POLITICAL ADVISOR ALMSTROM TOLD US JULY 25 THAT THE LEVEL OF FIGHTING IN BIHAC SEEMED TO HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT. CONTRARY TO KOLSTEREN, ALMSTROM SAID THAT UN ANALYSTS ARE QUESTIONING "WHETHER THE BOSNIAN SERBS" ARE INVOLVED OR NOT; ALMSTROM ECHOED KOLSTEREN'S COMMENTS THAT THE CURRENT CONFRONTATION LINE LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE THE AREA THAT ABDIC FORCES CONTROLLED ABOUT A YEAR AGO AND SPECULATED THAT THE ARSK MIGHT BE HELPING ABDIC TO REGAIN LOST GROUND IN RETURN FOR HIS COOPERATION NOW AND IN THE PAST. KOLSTEREN AND ALMSTROM BOTH DOUBTED THAT THE ARSK WOULD PRESS ITS ATTACK BECAUSE THEY MUST RECOGNIZE THE CROATIAN THREAT. (ALMSTROM ADDED THAT ALL FORCES IN THE AREA HAD SCRUPULOUSLY AVOIDED ACTIVITY IN THE SAFE ZONE, I.E., BIHAC TOWN ITSELF). -------------- GOC WILL RESPOND BEFORE NOVEMBER -------------- ¶4. IN KOLSTEREN'S OPINION, THE GOC COULD USE ATTACKS ON BIHAC AS AN EXCUSE TO RETAKE THE "RSK" BUT HAD NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY ASSAULT WAS IMMINENT. HE SAID THAT THE HV COULD BEGIN AN ATTACK INTO SECTOR SOUTH FROM THE FREE CROATIA AND BOSNIA IN A FEW DAYS OR WEEKS, BUT WOULD DEFINITELY MOVE BEFORE THE END OF THE UNCRO MANDATE IN NOVEMBER AND THE ONSET OF WINTER. HE SAID THAT THE LONGER THE GOC WAITS TO ATTACK, THE LONGER "ARSK" MILITARY COMMANDER GENERAL MRKSIC HAS TO STRENGTHEN HIS FORCES. IF THE GOC DECIDES TO ATTACK, HE TOLD US THAT HE THINKS MILOSEVIC WILL DO NOTHING TO IN DEFENSE OF THE "RSK" CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02784 01 OF 02 251724Z BECAUSE HE HAS EVERYTHING HE WANTS IN SECTOR EAST, AND THE BSA WILL PROVIDE LITTLE HELP BECAUSE IT IS STRETCHED THIN IN BOSNIA. ¶5. ALMSTROM SAID THAT HE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CROATS UNDERTOOK SOME ACTIVITY IN THE LIVNO VALLEY, BUT THE UN HAD "NO EVIDENCE" AS OF 1600 JULY 25 THAT THEY HAD DONE SO. (COMMENT: DATT HAS REPORTED THAT AS OF 0500 ON JULY 25, THE HVO BEGAN AN OPERATION AGAINST GLAMOC.) TROUBLE HAD FLARED AGAIN NEAR OSIJEK ON JULY 24, ALMSTROM SAID, BUT HAD BEEN SEEMINGLY CALMED AGAIN BY LOCAL COMMANDERS. -------------- -------------- UNPF CHIEF OF STAFF OPPOSES WIDER USE OF AIRSTRIKES -------------- -------------- ¶6. TURNING TO BOSNIA, KOLSTEREN LAUNCHED INTO A TIRADE AGAINST U.S. PRESSURE FOR AIRSTRIKES AND LIFTING THE ARMS EMBARGO ON THE GOBH. HE SAID THAT IF UNPF RELINQUISHES THE "DUAL KEY" THEN UNPROFOR WILL BE FORCED TO WITHDRAW FROM BOSNIA IMMEDIATELY, BECAUSE AIRSTRIKES WOULD ENTAIL CONFIDENTIAL NNNNPTQ1510 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1510 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02784 02 OF 02 251725Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 OASY-00 DOEE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-06 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PM-00 PRS-01 P-01 SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-01 TRSE-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRME-01 DRL-09 G-00 /028W -------------- DCD8A0 251725Z /38 O 251822Z JUL 95 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6561 INFO HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//POLAD// COMSIXTHFLT //N2// JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD// CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE//DO/LG/XOX/IN/POLAD// AMCONSUL MUNICH USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USLO SKOPJE AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY BELGRADE NATO EU COLLECTIVE JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-4/J-5// NSC WASHDC CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02784 02 OF 02 251725Z SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002784 SIPDIS USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL OSCE E.O. 12356: DECL: 7/25/00 TAGS: SUBJECT: UN OFFICIALS SAY "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED, EXPECT GOC REACTION BEFORE NOVEMBER WIDESPREAD TAKING OF UN HOSTAGES, EVEN AFTER TAKING STEPS TO SECURE PERSONNEL. (NOTE: HE ALSO STATED THAT SYG BUTROS GHALI STILL RETAINS ONE OF THE "KEYS.") HE SAID THAT THE USE OF CLOSE AIR SUPPORT MUST BE TIED TO SPECIFIC TACTICAL TARGETS LOCATED IN AREAS WHERE THE BSA IS ATTACKING SAFE AREAS. IN HIS OPINION, THE BOSNIAN SERBS ARE INCAPABLE OF MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN STRIKES ON STRATEGIC TARGETS, SUCH AS AMMO DUMPS AND AIR DEFENSES, AND THEIR ACTIONS AGAINST UN PROTECTED AREAS. -------------- SERBS AND BOSNIAKS GUILTY OF WAR CRIMES -------------- ¶7. KOLSTEREN STRESSED THAT THE UN MUST REMAIN IMPARTIAL. IN THE CASE OF THE BSA ATTACKS ON SREBRENICA, HE SAID THAT DUTCH SOLDIERS COULD ONLY CONFIRM THE FEW CASES OF ATROCITIES THAT THEY WITNESSED. HE CHARGED THAT VIOLENCE BETWEEN RIVAL MUSLIM GROUPS (THOSE THAT WANTED TO SURRENDER AND THOSE THAT DIDN'T) WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02784 02 OF 02 251725Z LARGE NUMBERS OF KILLINGS. IN THE CASE OF ZEPA, HE CHARACTERIZED THE BOSNIAKS STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE POCKET AS THUGS AND CRIMINALS, RESPONSIBLE FOR CRIMES AGAINST SERB AND MUSLIM CIVILIANS, WHO ARE AFRAID OF BEING CAPTURED BY THE BSA. SITUATION IN ZEPA -------------- ¶8. ALMSTROM DENIED BROADCAST NEWS REPORTS THAT ZEPA HAD FINALLY "FALLEN" TO THE SERBS. HE SAID THE SITUATION THERE REMAINED "CONFUSING." HE ADMITTED THE UKRAINIANS WERE HUNKERED DOWN, TAKING MORTAR FIRE FROM BOTH (I.E. MUSLIM AND SERB) SIDES AND UNABLE TO DO MUCH OBSERVING. B-H FORCES WERE PUTTING UP A STIFF RESISTANCE; MLADIC WAS CURIOUSLY RELUCTANT TO MOVE IN AND FINISH THE JOB, BUT HE MUST ALSO BE CHAFING, HAVING CLAIMED ALMOST A WEEK AGO THAT HIS ARMY HAD TAKEN CONTROL OF ZEPA. ALMSTROM REPORTED VARIOUS "RUMORS" THAT THERE WAS SOME AGREEMENT UNDER WHICH UNPROFOR WOULD COLLECT WEAPONS IN ZEPA IN RETURN FOR WHICH THE CIVILIANS COULD BE RELEASED BUT AKASHI WAS OF THE FIRM VIEW THAT VULNERABLE CIVILIANS; MUST BE ALLOWED TO LEAVE, PERIOD, WITHOUT ANY PRECONDITIONS. GALBRAITH CONFIDENTIAL NNNN