GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC

CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 02622 SIPDIS USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU E.O. 12356: 7/13/00 TAGS: SUBJECT: GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT. -------------- SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶2. SPEAKING JULY 13, CROATIAN FM GRANIC USED THE FALL OF SREBRENICA TO REINFORCE THE POINT HE HAS BEEN MAKING FOR SOME TIME, THAT BELGRADE IS RESPONSIBLE AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST EXERT STRONG PRESSURE ON MILOSEVIC. OVERALL, GRANIC'S MESSAGE WAS ONE OF REASSURANCE THAT CROATIA REMAINED COMMITTED TO PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THE REGION'S PROBLEMS AND RESTRAINT IN THE FACE OF PROVOCATION. BUT HE DID LAY DOWN MARKERS CONCERNING UNCRO'S NONPERFORMANCE OF ITS MANDATE AND POSSIBLE SERB MILITARY THREATS TO BIHAC. REFERRING TO EVIDENCE OF A SERB BUILDUP AROUND BIHAC, HE MADE CLEAR THIS WOULD BE OF MUCH MORE DIRECT CONCERN TO CROATIA, AND COULD LEAD TO A "WIDENING OF THE WAR," THOUGH HE STOPPED SHORT OF PREDICTING CROATIAN MILITARY ACTION TO PRESERVE BIHAC'S "PROTECTED ZONE" STATUS. END SUMMARY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02622 01 OF 02 131536Z AND COMMENT. ¶3. CROATIAN FM GRANIC CONVOKED AMBASSADORS/CHARGES OF CONTACT GROUP, UNSC, EU TROIKA, AND OSCE PRESIDENCY COUNTRIES JULY 13 FOR A REAOOUT OF THE CROATIAN VIEW OF THE FALL OF SREBRENICA. -------------- SITUATION ON THE GROUND -------------- ¶4. REVIEWING THE SITUATION IN SREBRENICA AND ZEPA, GRANIC ADDED LITTLE TO WHAT THE UN HAS ALREADY PUT OUT. HE USED THE FIGURE OF 55,000 FOR TOTAL REFUGEES AND NOTED THAT MILITARY AGE MEN WERE BEING SEPARATED OUT AND WOULD BE CHARGED WITH WAR CRIMES. HE CALLED THE SERB ACTION IN CAPTURING THE "ONE TRULY DEMILITARIZED ZONE" IN B-H "UNJUSTIFIED," CLAIMING THAT CHARGES THAT MILITARY ATTACKS WERE BEING ORGANIZED FROM INSIDE SREBRENICA WERE GROUNDLESS AND COULD BE DISPROVED BY LOOKING AT THE LOW "RATIO OF WEAPONS" FOUND AMONG THE PEOPLE THERE. GRANIC SAID THAT THE NEW REFUGEES WOULD MOSTLY END UP ON FEDERATION TERRITORY, ESPECIALLY TUZLA AND ZENICA, AND WOULD DESTABILIZE THE SITUATION THERE BY FURTHER CROWOING OF AN ALREADY-REDUCED SPACE. NOTING THERE HAD BEEN MORE FIGHTING AROUND ZEPA, HE SAID CONFIDENCE THAT THE UN WOULD DO ANYTHING TO PROTECT ZEPA WAS "ALMOST NIL." - -------------- WARMONGER MILOSEVIC AND PEACELOVING CROATIA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02622 01 OF 02 131536Z -------------- ¶5. GRANIC ARGUED THAT NEITHER KARADZIC NOR MLADIC COULD DECIDE TO CONDUCT ACTIONS LIKE SREBRENICA WITHOUT MILOSEVIC'S OK. BELGRADE WAS ATTEMPTING TO IMPOSE A SOLUTION BY FORCE; THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS "APPEASING" HIM -- HE STEPPED UP THE WAR, JUST A FEW DAYS AFTER A RENEWAL OF LIMITED SANCTIONS RELIEF, AND SUFFERED NO CONSEQUENCES. ¶6. THE GOC, SAID GRANIC, WOULD CONTINUE TO ADHERE TO THE LETTER AND SPIRIT OF THE WASHINGTON AGREEMENT AND THE CONTACT GROUP PLAN. IT WOULD NOT RESPOND TO PROVOCATIONS, AND WOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT. "EVEN THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS" WOULD NOT SWAY ZAGREB FROM ITS PEACEFUL COURSE. EVENTS IN SREBRENICA WOULD BIND CROATIA AND B-H MORE CLOSELY, AND CROATIA WOULD CONTINUE ITS STRONG SUPPORT FOR BUILDING THE FEDERATION. AS SOON AS THE LOGISTICS COULD BE WORKED OUT, TUDJMAN AND IZETBEGOVIC WOULD MEET WITH SENIOR FEDERATION OFFICIALS. (NOTE: GRANIC TOLD A/DCM JULY CONFIDENTIAL NNNNPTQ6397 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6397 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02622 02 OF 02 131536Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 OASY-00 SRPP-00 EB-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-08 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-01 TRSE-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PRME-01 DRL-09 G-00 /029W -------------- D927B6 131632Z /45 O 131625Z JUL 95 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6401 INFO HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5-PMA/J21// JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK USNMR SHAPE BE//POLAD// SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5// NSC WASHDC NATO EU COLLECTIVE AMCONSUL MUNICH USLO SKOPJE USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION GENEVA AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02622 02 OF 02 131536Z C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002622 SIPDIS USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU E.O. 12356: 7/13/00 TAGS: SUBJECT: GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC 10 THAT HE HAD CONCLUDED ARRANGEMENTS FOR A JULY 21 MEETING ON BRIJUNI, WHERE TUDJMAN IS VACATIONING.) -------------- THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -------------- ¶7. CONTINUING, GRANIC SAID CROATIA WANTED A REVIVAL OF THE PEACE PROCESS AND TO THAT END, URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO SEEK RENEWED PROGRESS ON PEACE THROUGH STRONG PRESSURE ON SERBIA; TO TAKE IMMEDIATE STEPS TO ENSURE THAT UNCRO FULFILLED ITS MANDATE; NOT TO LIFT SANCTIONS ON SERBIA UNTIL IT HAD RECOMMITTED ITSELF TO THE PEACE PROCESS AND RECOGNIZED BOTH B-H AND/AND CROATIA. THE GOVERNMENTS REPRESENTED AT THE BRIEFING, HE SAID, SHOULD DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO ACTIVATE THE PEACE PROCESS, INCLUDING USE OF UNPF, THE RAPID REACTION FORCE, AND PRESSURE ON MILOSEVIC. - -------------- BIHAC, THE ONE TO WATCH CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02622 02 OF 02 131536Z -------------- ¶8. SEEMING ALMOST AS AN AFTERTHOUGHT, GRANLC ADDED THAT CROATIA WAS ESPECIALLY CONCERNED BY OBSERVED "MASSING OF SERB FORCES" IN THE BIHAC POCKET, ESPECIALLY NEAR SLUNJ. HE SAID THAT ANY SERB ACTION TO TAKE BIHAC WOULD BE TAKEN "EXTREMELY SERIOUSLY." ASKED LATER WHAT ACTION CROATIA WOULD TAKE IF THE SERBS ATTACKED BIHAC, GRANIC SAID HE HOPED IT "WOULD NOT COME TO THAT" BECAUSE SUCH ACTION WOULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THE SERBS IN "SEVERAL WAYS." GRANIC SAID TUDJMAN'S MESSAGE WAS THAT IT WAS CRUCIAL TO "ACCELERATE THE PEACE PROCESS," AND THIS WAS WHERE CROATIA'S EFFORTS WOULD CONCENTRATE. HE NOTED THE POSSIBILITY OF "INDIRECT HELP," E.G., SUCH AS HVO ACTION IN LIVANSKO POLJE, WHICH HAD "HELPED RELIEVE PRESSURE" ON THE BOSNIAN V CORPS WHEN BIHAC WAS THREATENED AT THE END OF LAST YEAR. (NOTE: AT ONE POINT GRANIC SAID THAT AN "ATTACK ON BIHAC BY THE SERBS WOULD CERTAINLY WIDEN THE WAR" BUT THIS WAS NOT TRANSLATED BY THE INTERPRETER.) ¶9. SARAJEVO MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. KLEMP CONFIDENTIAL NNNN