UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3 MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z BAKU FOR DCM FINN BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010 TAGS: SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3 MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER REF: ZAGREB 175 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶2. FONMIN GRANIC DETAILED THE SUCCESS OF THE CROATIAN FORCES TO THE DIP CORPS ON MAY 3. HE ANNOUNCED A "CEASEFIRE" HAD BEEN AGREED WITH THE SERBS, WHICH HE HOPED WOULD END THE ATTACKS ON ZAGREB. (NOTE: OUR FOLLOW UP CONTACTS WITH THE UN INDICATE THAT GRANIC MAY HAVE SPOKEN TOO SOON IN ANNOUNCING A CEASEFIRE, IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY AN AGREEMENT FOR THE EVACUATION OF SERBS FROM A POCKET IN THE NORTH OF THE SECTOR.) THE GOC HAD DECIDED NOT TO RETALIATE FOR THE MISSILE ATTACKS OF MAY 2 AND 3, BUT FURTHER ATTACKS WOULD REQUIRE A RESPONSE. PRESIDENT TUDJMAN HAD DECIDED THAT SECTOR WEST WOULD BECOME AN EXAMPLE OF HOW TERRITORY COULD BE SUCCESSFULLY REINTEGRATED AND THAT COEXISTENCE OF SERB AND CROAT WAS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z POSSIBLE, WITH FULL CIVIL RIGHTS FOR ALL CROATIAN SERBS. END SUMMARY. ¶3. FOREIGN MINISTER GRANIC MET WITH THE ENTIRE ZAGREB DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MAY 3 AT 1600. HE SAID THAT THE GOC HAD ACHIEVED ITS OBJECTIVES IN SECTOR WEST, WHICH WERE: 1) TO REOPEN THE HIGHWAY UNDER CONDITIONS PERMITTING ITS SAFE OPERATION, AND 2) SEVER THE ROUTE BY WHICH THE BOSNIAN SERBS COULD OFFER SUPPORT TO THE "RSK." THE BOSNIAN SERBS HAD ATTEMPTED "UNSUCCESSFULLY" TO OFFER SUPPORT TO THE KRAJINA SERBS ON TWO OCCASIONS (NFI). ¶4. GRANIC STRESSED THAT THE CROATIANS HAD ACTED TO AVOID CIVILIAN CASUALTIES; THE TOWN OF OKUCANI WAS ISOLATED, BUT IN A WAY WHICH PERMITTED THOSE IN THE POPULATION WHO WANTED TO LEAVE A WAY OUT. THE SERBS WERE CLAIMING THAT 5000 CIVILIANS HAD FLED THE SECTOR DURING THE ATTACK; THE GOC BELIEVED THE NUMBER TO BE CLOSER TO UNHCR'S ESTIMATE OF 2500 PEOPLE. THE ONLY PIECE OF TERRITORY WHICH THE GOC DID NOT YET CONTROL WAS A POCKET OF TERRITORY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY, BETWEEN OKUCANI AND PAKRAC. THE SERBS SAID IT CONTAINED 600 SOLDIERS AND 3000 CIVILIANS, BUT THE GOC COULD NOT CONFIRM THOSE NUMBERS. AN AGREEMENT HAD BEEN REACHED BY DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KOSTOVIC ON MAY 2 THAT THOSE AMONG THAT GROUP WHO WISHED TO LEAVE FOR BOSNIAN SERB HELD TERRITORY COULD DO SO UNDER UN AUSPICES. THE GOC HAD PROMISED TO ALL WHO CHOOSE TO STAY THAT THEY WOULD HAVE FULL CIVIL RIGHTS AND THEIR WOULD BE A COMPLETE AMNESTY FOR ALL WHO TURNED IN THEIR ARMS, EXCEPT FOR THOSE GUILTY OF WAR CRIMES. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z -------------- -------------- CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT REACHED AT 1630 MAY 3 -------------- -------------- ¶5. SHORTLY INTO THE MEETING, GRANIC WAS CALLED AWAY FOR A PHONE CALL WITH GOC PRESIDENTIAL CHIEF OF STAFF HRVOJE SARINIC. GRANIC RETURNED TO REPORT THAT SARINIC HAD REACHED A "CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES" WITH THE KRAJINA SERBS, WITH THE MEDIATION OF UN SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE AKASHI. HE THEN PASSED AROUND A COPY OF THE FOUR- PARAGRAPH AGREEMENT (COPY FAXED TO EUR/SCE). THE AGREEMENT STATED THAT "THERE WILL BE A TOTAL CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES IN SECTOR WEST (WESTERN SLAVONIA) AND ELSEWHERE FROM 1700 HOURS 3 MAY 1995" AND SAID ALL WHO WISH TO LEAVE SECTOR WEST COULD DO SO UNDER UN "SURVEILLANCE." GRANIC SAID THAT SARINIC HAD AGREED TO THE TERMS FROM THE CROATIAN SIDE. HE WAS UNSURE WHO HAD AGREED FROM THE KRAJINA SERB SIDE. GRANIC NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENTIAL NNNNPTQ7050 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7050 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-10 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PM-00 P-01 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 /017W -------------- C1D7F4 031854Z /38 O 031949Z MAY 95 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5643 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE AMCONSUL MUNICH USLO SKOPJE AMEMBASSY BAKU AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY BELGRADE HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD// NATO EU COLLECTIVE JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21// SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// WHITE HOUSE WASHDC DIA WASHDC USMISSION GENEVA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z BAKU FOR DCM FINN BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010 TAGS: SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3 MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER GOC HAD BEEN IN CONTACT WITH BELGRADE ON MAY 3 "AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS" BOTH DIRECTLY AND VIA THE UN. THE GOC BELIEVED THAT BELGRADE HAD WEIGHED IN WITH KNIN IN FAVOR OF THE CEASEFIRE. ¶6. GRANIC EXPRESSED THE HOPE THAT THE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT WOULD MEAN THE END TO THE ROCKET ATTACKS ON ZAGREB, ALTHOUGH HE NOTED THAT THERE WERE "NO GUARANTEES." ¶7. COMMENT: WHEN WE CHECKED WITH THE UN CIVIL AFFAIRS COORDINATOR IN KNIN, WE WERE TOLD THE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT HAD BEEN NEGOTIATED ON THE SERB SIDE BY "PRIME MINISTER" MIKELIC; MARTIC'S CHIEF OF STAFF, ILIJA PRIJIC; AND MILITARY "CHIEF OF STAFF" LONCAR. THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE SERBS FROM THE PAKRAC POCKET WAS SCHEDULED TO OCCUR AT 0900 HOURS LOCAL ON MAY 4. MIKELIC, PRIJIC AND LONCAR HAD ALSO SIGNED A TEXT OF A CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT WHICH HAD FOUR ESSENTIAL POINTS: 1) BOTH SIDES WOULD "WITHDRAW" TO THE LINES AS BEFORE MAY 1; 20 THE UN ALONE WOULD CONTROL THE HIGHWAY UNDER A SPECIAL REGIME; 3) CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z BOTH SIDES WOULD RESPECT THE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT AND SAFETY OF UN PERSONNEL; 4) FURTHER CONSULTATIONS WOULD BE HELD. GRANIC MADE NO MENTION OF ANY CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT WITH THESE TERMS, AND WE CANNOT IMAGINE THE GOC AGREEING TO A "WITHDRAWAL" WHICH WOULD SIMPLY RESTORE THE STATUS QUO ANTE. END COMMENT. -------------- -------------- NO CROATIAN RETALIATION FOR MISSILE ATTACKS ON ZAGREB -------------- -------------- ¶8. GRANIC SAID THAT THE GOC HAD MADE THE DECISION, DESPITE "LOTS OF PUBLIC PRESSURE," NOT TO RESPOND TO THE MISSILE ATTACKS OF MAY 2 OR MAY 3. GRANIC GAVE DETAILS, AS CURRENTLY KNOWN, ON THE ATTACKS. ON MAY 2, SIX ROCKETS WERE FIRED AT ZAGREB, RESULTING IN SIX DEATHS AND 143 INJURED (ONE OF THE INJURED WAS LIKELY TO DIE). ON MAY 3, THERE WERE NINE ROCKETS (SIX IN THE CITY CENTER AND THREE IN THE WIDER AREA). ONE POLICEMAN HAD DIED WHILE DISARMING AN EXPLOSIVE DEVICE AND TWO CIVILIANS WHO WERE INJURED IN THE ATTACKS WERE EXPECTED TO DIE FROM THEIR WOUNDS. 41 OTHER WERE CONFIRMED AS INJURED, AMONG THE SERIOUSLY INJURED WAS THE TWENTY-ONE YEAR OLD DAUGHTER OF DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KOSTOVIC (GRANIC NOTED HIS OWN DAUGHTER HAD BEEN AT THE HIGH SCHOOL HIT IN YESTERDAY'S ATTACK). GRANIC STRESSED THAT IT HAD NOT BEEN EASY FOR THE GOC TO SHOW RESTRAINT IN RESPONDING TO THE MISSILE ATTACKS. IN THIS REGARD, GRANIC NOTED THAT CROATIA'S CONTINUED NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EU HAD BEEN A MAJOR FACTOR IN REENFORCING CROATIA'S RESTRAINT. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z -------------- - FURTHER MISSILE ATTACKS WOULD REQUIRE RESPONSE -------------- - ¶9. IF THERE WERE FURTHER MISSILE ATTACKS, HOWEVER, GRANIC SAID THE GOC WOULD HAVE TO TAKE ACTION "TO PROTECT OURSELVES FROM THIS PARTICULAR KIND OF ATTACK." BUT HE STRESSED THAT THE GOC WOULD IN NO CIRCUMSTANCES TARGET CIVILIANS IN ANY ATTACK. GRANIC ALSO SAID THAT THE GOC WOULD BE SUPPLYING THE HAGUE TRIBUNAL WITH INFORMATION SHOWING THAT THE CLUSTER BOMB ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN TARGETS HAD BEEN ORDERED BY "RSK PRESIDENT" MARTIC AND AGREED TO BY "RSK" COMMANDER CELEKETIC. "RSK CHIEF OF STAFF" LONCAR WAS ALSO IMPLICATED. HE INDICATED THAT CROATIAN COURTS WOULD ALSO PURSUE CHARGES AGAINST THOSE RESPONSIBLE. - ¶10. GRANIC ALSO INDICATED THAT THE GOC HAD MANY REPORTS OF INTERNAL CONFLICTS AMONG THE KRAJINA SERBS, BOTH IN KNIN AND AT THE LOCAL LEVEL. THERE WERE REPORTS OF CIVILIANS CONFIDENTIAL NNNNPTQ7051 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7051 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01763 03 OF 03 031854Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-10 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PM-00 P-01 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 /017W -------------- C1D7FA 031854Z /38 O 031949Z MAY 95 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5644 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE AMCONSUL MUNICH USLO SKOPJE AMEMBASSY BAKU AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY BELGRADE HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD// NATO EU COLLECTIVE JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21// SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// WHITE HOUSE WASHDC DIA WASHDC USMISSION GENEVA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01763 03 OF 03 031854Z BAKU FOR DCM FINN BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010 TAGS: SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3 MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER TRYING TO FLEE THE UNPAS BEING BLOCKED BY SERB POLICE. THESE SPLITS HAD BEEN AGGRAVATED BY EVENTS SINCE MAY 1. MARTIC HAD BEEN TRYING TO AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION TO SECURE HIS POSITION AND TO BRING THE VIOLENCE TO A LEVEL WHERE BELGRADE WOULD BE FORCED TO RESPOND IN SUPPORT OF THE "RSK." -------------- -------------- SECTOR WEST TO BE AN EXAMPLE OF SUCCESSFUL REINT EGRATION -------------- -------------- ¶11. GRANIC GAVE NO INDICATION THAT THE GOC HAD ANY PLANS TO RETURN TO THE LINES OF BEFORE MAY 1. INSTEAD, HE STRESSED TUDJMAN'S DECISION TO "MAKE WESTERN SLAVONIA AN EXAMPLE OF HOW SERB AND CROAT CAN COEXIST." THE GOC'S INTENT WAS TO RESTORE LIFE TO NORMAL IN SECTOR AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE, AND TO DO IT EXCLUSIVELY WITH CIVIL AUTHORITIES. TUDJMAN WOULD BE MAKING A SPEECH TO THE NATION, EITHER THE EVENING OF MAY 3, OR AT THE LATEST ON MAY 4. IT WILL BE A SPEECH FOR THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF CROATIA, BUT "ESPECIALLY FOR THE CROATIAN SERBS." CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01763 03 OF 03 031854Z GALBRAITH CONFIDENTIAL NNNN