A BLACK DAY FOR THE JEWISH NATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 017508


DEPARTMENT PASS TO SECRETARY'S PARTY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/05
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, XF, IS
SUBJECT: A BLACK DAY FOR THE JEWISH NATION

1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. CLASSIFIED BY RICHARD ERDMAN,
POL/C, PER SECTIONS 1.5(B) AND (D).

2. NEWS OF RABIN'S ASSASSINATION HAS LEFT ISRAELIS DAZED,
STUNNED, ANXIOUS, AND IN SHOCK. THE FULL IMPACT HAS YET TO SINK
IN, OF COURSE. BUT GIVEN RABIN'S CENTRAL ROLE IN VIRTUALLY EVERY
PHASE OF ISRAEL'S POLITICAL LIFE SINCE ITS CREATION, THE
PYSCHOLOGICAL, HISTORICAL, AND NATIONAL IMPACT IS BEING COMPARED
TO THAT FOLLOWING PRESIDENT KENNEDY'S ASSASSINATION. AS ONE
CONTACT PUT IT, THE OVERWHELMING SENSE OF SADNESS GOES FAR BEYOND
RABIN THE MAN; IT GOES TO THE HEART OF WHAT ISRAEL IS ALL ABOUT.
THERE IS THE SENSE THAT ISRAEL HAS LOST WHATEVER WAS LEFT OF ITS
ORGINAL INNOCENCE, ITS YOUTH, ITS SENSE OF INTIMACY AND
CONNECTEDNESS IN A SHARED FATE. IN A WORD, ALL THE THINGS THAT
HAVE MADE ISRAEL UNIQUE IN THE EYES OF ITS PEOPLE.

3. THAT RABIN WAS GUNNED DOWN BY A LONE ASSASSIN AS HE LEFT
PERHAPS THE LARGEST PEACE RALLY IN TEL AVIV HISTORY HAS MADE THE
SITUATION ALL THE MORE POIGNANT. SOME 120,000-150,000 ISRAELIS--
JOINED BY GOVERNMENT MINISTERS, KNESSET MEMBERS, AND AMBASSADORS
FROM EGYPT, JORDAN AND MOROCCO--HAD GATHERED IN THE CITY CENTER
TO EXPRESS THEIR SUPPORT FOR PEACE AND FOR RABIN'S EFFORTS TO
ACHIEVE IT. THE GUNSHOTS THAT FELLED HIM AND THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF
HIS DEATH ABOUT AN HOUR LATER TURNED A MASSIVE, JOYOUS EVENT INTO
A NATIONAL NIGHTMARE.

4. THE ASSASSINATION, THE FIRST EVER IN THE FORTY-SEVEN YEAR
HISTORY OF ISRAEL, IS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM AS
AN ASSAULT ON ISRAELI DEMOCRACY AND AS A STERN REMINDER THAT
FRATERNAL VIOLENCE MUST BE CHECKED, LEST IT SPLINTER THE NATION
AS IT HAS IN THE PAST. ILLUSTRATIVELY, THE JERUSALEM POST, NO
FRIEND OF RABIN OR OSLO II, EDITORIALIZED THIS MORNING THAT
"NOTHING, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, IS A GREATER BLOW TO THE LIFE OF
THE JEWISH NATION THAN FRATERNAL VIOLENCE, AND NOTHING MAKES SUCH
VIOLENCE MORE THREATENING TO THE NATION'S FUTURE THAN THE
ASSASSINATION OF THE HEAD OF GOVERNMENT." ISRAEL'S FATE, THE
COMMENTARY CONTINUES, DEPENDS ON ISRAELIS UNITING, DESPITE THEIR
POLITICAL DIFFERENCES, TO UTTERLY REJECT VIOLENCE BETWEEN JEWS.

5. A KEY POLLSTER WHO HAS DONE EXTENSIVE PRIVATE POLLING FOR
RABIN OVER THE YEARS DESCRIBED THE ASSASSINATION TO US AS THE
"PEAK OF THE POLARIZATION OF ISRAELI SOCIETY IN THE LAST DECADE."
NO ONE EXPECTED IT TO GO THIS FAR, BUT THERE IS A CLEAR SENSE
THAT A LINE HAS BEEN CROSSED, THAT THE PEACE PROCESS MUST NOT
STOP, AND THAT VIOLENCE AT ANY LEVEL CANNOT AND MUST NOT BE
ACCEPTED.

6. ACCORDING TO BOTH THIS AND OTHER CONTACTS, RABIN'S
ASSASSINATION WILL WAKE UP THE MODERATE RIGHT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
PEACE PROCESS BUT HAS DOUBTS ABOUT OSLO II. AT THE SAME TIME,
PRESSURES WILL GROW TO JOIN RANKS AT A TIME OF NATIONAL CRISIS.
TOLERANCE FOR THE KIND OF UNCIVIL AND VIOLENT BEHAVIOR AND
RHETORIC THAT HAVE MARKED THE PAST FEW MONTHS WILL BE SHARPLY
REDUCED. THE RIGHT, FACED WITH AN UPWELLING OF PUBLIC SUPPORT
FOR UNITY IN TIME OF NATIONAL CRISIS, WILL BE FORCED TO MODERATE
ITS OPPOSITION. AND THE SECULAR AND RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES,
HAVING LOOKED DOWN THE ABYSS OF FRATRICIDAL JEWISH STRIFE, WILL
BE UNDER INCREASED PRESSURE TO FIND A WAY TO LIVE TOGETHER WITH
GREATER MUTUAL TOLERATION AND RESPECT, DESPITE THEIR ENORMOUS
DIFFERENCES.

7. IN THIS ANALYSIS--WHICH WE THINK IS CLOSE TO THE MARK--THE
MODERATE RIGHT WILL BE CRITICAL TO EFFORTS TO STEM POLARIZATION
OVER THE PEACE PROCESS AND TO BRIDGE THE GAPS BETWEEN THE LEFT
AND RIGHT. IF THESE MODERATES DECIDE THAT THEIR SIDE--THE RIGHT-
-HAS HELPED BRING ON A NATIONAL CRISIS BY TAKING ITS OPPOSITION
TOO FAR, THERE COULD BE A BACKLASH. THE SETTLERS COUNCIL'S
ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY THAT IT WILL CEASE ITS ACTIVE RESISTANCE TO
THE GOVERNMENT CENSUS MAY BE AN EARLY SIGN OF THE KIND OF
MODERATING PRESSURES THAT WILL BE AT WORK. OPPOSITION LEADER
NETANYAHU'S SUPPORT THIS MORNING IN THE KNESSET FOR LABOR TO FORM
THE NEXT GOVERNMENT, AND HIS PRIVATELY EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE
PUBLIC WILL HOLD LIKUD RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ATMOSPHERE IN WHICH SUCH A TRAGIC EVENT COULD TAKE PLACE, MAY BE
A FURTHER INDICATION. WHATEVER THE CASE, MOST PEOPLE WE HAVE
SPOKEN WITH ARE CONVINCED THAT LABOR WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
OUTPOURING OF SYMPATHY AND SUPPORT AS WELL AS THE PUBLIC'S
PREFERENCE TO GO WITH THE DEVIL THEY KNOW.

8. WITH THE NATION IN SHOCK AND MOURNING, ISRAELIS ARE NOT YET
FOCUSSING MUCH ON LONGER TERM POLITICAL SUCCESSION ISSUES. FOR
THOSE WHO ARE, A KEY QUESTION IS WHO CAN BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN
LEFT AND RIGHT. FOR ALL THE CONTROVERSY SURROUNDING HIS PEACE
POLICIES AND OUTSPOKENESS, RABIN TO SOME EXTENT BRIDGED THAT
LEFT-RIGHT DIVIDE AND WAS NEVER SEEN AS A MAN ONLY OF THE LEFT.
PERES, DESPITE HIS IMPROVING PUBLIC IMAGE IN RECENT MONTHS, BY
CONTRAST IS WIDELY IDENTIFIED AS A MAN OF THE LEFT AND DISTRUSTED
BY MANY ON THE RIGHT. BOTH IN HIS TRANSITION ROLE AND AS PRIME
MINISTER, SHOULD HE BE ASKED TO FORM A NEW GOVERNMENT, A KEY
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PERES CAN BOTH CARRY THE LABOR BLOC AS
WELL AS BRING ALONG THE CRUCIAL CENTER AND CENTER-RIGHT. IN THIS
REGARD, THERE IS SPECULATION THAT POPULAR LABOR FEDERATION LEADER
AND KNESSET MEMBER HAIM RAMON, WHO HAS A MORE CENTRIST POLITICAL
IMAGE, WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN ATTRACTING THE MODERATE RIGHT,
BROADENING THE GOVERNMENT'S BASE, AND MODERATING THE LEFT-RIGHT
DIVIDE.


INDYK