A BLACK DAY FOR THE JEWISH NATION

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 017508

DEPARTMENT PASS TO SECRETARY'S PARTY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/05

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, XF, IS

SUBJECT: A BLACK DAY FOR THE JEWISH NATION

1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. CLASSIFIED BY RICHARD ERDMAN,

POL/C, PER SECTIONS 1.5(B) AND (D).

2. NEWS OF RABIN'S ASSASSINATION HAS LEFT ISRAELIS DAZED,

STUNNED, ANXIOUS, AND IN SHOCK. THE FULL IMPACT HAS YET TO SINK

IN, OF COURSE. BUT GIVEN RABIN'S CENTRAL ROLE IN VIRTUALLY EVERY

PHASE OF ISRAEL'S POLITICAL LIFE SINCE ITS CREATION, THE

PYSCHOLOGICAL, HISTORICAL, AND NATIONAL IMPACT IS BEING COMPARED

TO THAT FOLLOWING PRESIDENT KENNEDY'S ASSASSINATION. AS ONE

CONTACT PUT IT, THE OVERWHELMING SENSE OF SADNESS GOES FAR BEYOND

RABIN THE MAN; IT GOES TO THE HEART OF WHAT ISRAEL IS ALL ABOUT.

THERE IS THE SENSE THAT ISRAEL HAS LOST WHATEVER WAS LEFT OF ITS

ORGINAL INNOCENCE, ITS YOUTH, ITS SENSE OF INTIMACY AND

CONNECTEDNESS IN A SHARED FATE. IN A WORD, ALL THE THINGS THAT

HAVE MADE ISRAEL UNIQUE IN THE EYES OF ITS PEOPLE.

3. THAT RABIN WAS GUNNED DOWN BY A LONE ASSASSIN AS HE LEFT

PERHAPS THE LARGEST PEACE RALLY IN TEL AVIV HISTORY HAS MADE THE

SITUATION ALL THE MORE POIGNANT. SOME 120,000-150,000 ISRAELIS--

JOINED BY GOVERNMENT MINISTERS, KNESSET MEMBERS, AND AMBASSADORS

FROM EGYPT, JORDAN AND MOROCCO--HAD GATHERED IN THE CITY CENTER

TO EXPRESS THEIR SUPPORT FOR PEACE AND FOR RABIN'S EFFORTS TO

ACHIEVE IT. THE GUNSHOTS THAT FELLED HIM AND THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF

HIS DEATH ABOUT AN HOUR LATER TURNED A MASSIVE, JOYOUS EVENT INTO

A NATIONAL NIGHTMARE.

4. THE ASSASSINATION, THE FIRST EVER IN THE FORTY-SEVEN YEAR

HISTORY OF ISRAEL, IS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM AS

AN ASSAULT ON ISRAELI DEMOCRACY AND AS A STERN REMINDER THAT

FRATERNAL VIOLENCE MUST BE CHECKED, LEST IT SPLINTER THE NATION

AS IT HAS IN THE PAST. ILLUSTRATIVELY, THE JERUSALEM POST, NO

FRIEND OF RABIN OR OSLO II, EDITORIALIZED THIS MORNING THAT

"NOTHING, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, IS A GREATER BLOW TO THE LIFE OF

THE JEWISH NATION THAN FRATERNAL VIOLENCE, AND NOTHING MAKES SUCH

VIOLENCE MORE THREATENING TO THE NATION'S FUTURE THAN THE

ASSASSINATION OF THE HEAD OF GOVERNMENT." ISRAEL'S FATE, THE

COMMENTARY CONTINUES, DEPENDS ON ISRAELIS UNITING, DESPITE THEIR

POLITICAL DIFFERENCES, TO UTTERLY REJECT VIOLENCE BETWEEN JEWS.

>5. A KEY POLLSTER WHO HAS DONE EXTENSIVE PRIVATE POLLING FOR

RABIN OVER THE YEARS DESCRIBED THE ASSASSINATION TO US AS THE

"PEAK OF THE POLARIZATION OF ISRAELI SOCIETY IN THE LAST DECADE."

NO ONE EXPECTED IT TO GO THIS FAR, BUT THERE IS A CLEAR SENSE

THAT A LINE HAS BEEN CROSSED, THAT THE PEACE PROCESS MUST NOT

STOP, AND THAT VIOLENCE AT ANY LEVEL CANNOT AND MUST NOT BE

ACCEPTED.

6. ACCORDING TO BOTH THIS AND OTHER CONTACTS, RABIN'S

ASSASSINATION WILL WAKE UP THE MODERATE RIGHT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE

PEACE PROCESS BUT HAS DOUBTS ABOUT OSLO II. AT THE SAME TIME,

PRESSURES WILL GROW TO JOIN RANKS AT A TIME OF NATIONAL CRISIS.

TOLERANCE FOR THE KIND OF UNCIVIL AND VIOLENT BEHAVIOR AND

RHETORIC THAT HAVE MARKED THE PAST FEW MONTHS WILL BE SHARPLY

REDUCED. THE RIGHT, FACED WITH AN UPWELLING OF PUBLIC SUPPORT

FOR UNITY IN TIME OF NATIONAL CRISIS, WILL BE FORCED TO MODERATE

ITS OPPOSITION. AND THE SECULAR AND RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES,

HAVING LOOKED DOWN THE ABYSS OF FRATRICIDAL JEWISH STRIFE, WILL

BE UNDER INCREASED PRESSURE TO FIND A WAY TO LIVE TOGETHER WITH

GREATER MUTUAL TOLERATION AND RESPECT, DESPITE THEIR ENORMOUS

DIFFERENCES.

7. IN THIS ANALYSIS--WHICH WE THINK IS CLOSE TO THE MARK--THE

MODERATE RIGHT WILL BE CRITICAL TO EFFORTS TO STEM POLARIZATION

OVER THE PEACE PROCESS AND TO BRIDGE THE GAPS BETWEEN THE LEFT

AND RIGHT. IF THESE MODERATES DECIDE THAT THEIR SIDE--THE RIGHT-

-HAS HELPED BRING ON A NATIONAL CRISIS BY TAKING ITS OPPOSITION

TOO FAR, THERE COULD BE A BACKLASH. THE SETTLERS COUNCIL'S

ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY THAT IT WILL CEASE ITS ACTIVE RESISTANCE TO

THE GOVERNMENT CENSUS MAY BE AN EARLY SIGN OF THE KIND OF

MODERATING PRESSURES THAT WILL BE AT WORK. OPPOSITION LEADER

NETANYAHU'S SUPPORT THIS MORNING IN THE KNESSET FOR LABOR TO FORM

THE NEXT GOVERNMENT, AND HIS PRIVATELY EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE

PUBLIC WILL HOLD LIKUD RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTRIBUTING TO AN

ATMOSPHERE IN WHICH SUCH A TRAGIC EVENT COULD TAKE PLACE, MAY BE

A FURTHER INDICATION. WHATEVER THE CASE, MOST PEOPLE WE HAVE

SPOKEN WITH ARE CONVINCED THAT LABOR WILL BENEFIT FROM AN

OUTPOURING OF SYMPATHY AND SUPPORT AS WELL AS THE PUBLIC'S

PREFERENCE TO GO WITH THE DEVIL THEY KNOW.

8. WITH THE NATION IN SHOCK AND MOURNING, ISRAELIS ARE NOT YET

FOCUSSING MUCH ON LONGER TERM POLITICAL SUCCESSION ISSUES. FOR

THOSE WHO ARE, A KEY QUESTION IS WHO CAN BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN

LEFT AND RIGHT. FOR ALL THE CONTROVERSY SURROUNDING HIS PEACE

POLICIES AND OUTSPOKENESS, RABIN TO SOME EXTENT BRIDGED THAT

LEFT-RIGHT DIVIDE AND WAS NEVER SEEN AS A MAN ONLY OF THE LEFT.

PERES, DESPITE HIS IMPROVING PUBLIC IMAGE IN RECENT MONTHS, BY

CONTRAST IS WIDELY IDENTIFIED AS A MAN OF THE LEFT AND DISTRUSTED

BY MANY ON THE RIGHT. BOTH IN HIS TRANSITION ROLE AND AS PRIME

MINISTER, SHOULD HE BE ASKED TO FORM A NEW GOVERNMENT, A KEY

QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PERES CAN BOTH CARRY THE LABOR BLOC AS

WELL AS BRING ALONG THE CRUCIAL CENTER AND CENTER-RIGHT. IN THIS

REGARD, THERE IS SPECULATION THAT POPULAR LABOR FEDERATION LEADER

AND KNESSET MEMBER HAIM RAMON, WHO HAS A MORE CENTRIST POLITICAL

IMAGE, WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN ATTRACTING THE MODERATE RIGHT,

BROADENING THE GOVERNMENT'S BASE, AND MODERATING THE LEFT-RIGHT

DIVIDE.

INDYK

A BLACK DAY FOR THE JEWISH NATION

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