HAMAS JAILBREAK: YOU CAN HIDE, BUT YOU CAN'T RUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 016873 DEPT FOR SMEC AND NEA/IAI E.O. 12356: DECL: 10/23/05 TAGS: PTER PGOV PHUM PREL KPAL KWBG IS SUBJECT: HAMAS JAILBREAK: YOU CAN HIDE, BUT YOU CAN'T RUN ¶1. (U) THREE HAMAS ACTIVISTS ESCAPED FROM THE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE WING OF GAZA CENTRAL PRISON OCTOBER 22. TWO OF THEM, YUSEF MALAHI AND OSAMA ABU TAHA, HAD BEEN IMPLICATED IN LETHAL ATTACKS AGAINST ISRAELIS AND HAD BEEN SENTENCED TO 12 YEAR SENTENCES BY THE PALESTINIAN SECURITY COURT. THE THIRD, IMAD AQIL, HAD BEEN ARRESTED WHILE ATTEMPTING TO CARRY OUT A SUICIDE ATTACK AGAINST AN ISRAELI SETTLEMENT IN GAZA. AQIL TURNED HIMSELF INTO POLICE A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS AFTER THE ESCAPE. NOWHERE TO RUN -------------- ¶2. (C) THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY (PA) ATTORNEY GENERAL KHALID AL QIDRAH TOLD POLOFF OCTOBER 23, (EVEN BEFORE AQIL TURNED HIMSELF IN) THAT A SEARCH AND INVESTIGATION WERE UNDERWAY AND HE DID NOT EXPECT THE TWO REMAINING ESCAPEES TO REMAIN AT LARGE FOR LONG. "GAZA IS SMALL AND THEY ARE WELL-KNOWN." GAZA REUTERS CHIEF TAHER SHRITEH, WHO MAINTAINS CONTACTS WITH HAMAS MEMBERS, DISAGREED WITH AL QIDRAH ABOUT WHETHER ABU TAHA AND MALAHI COULD REMAIN AT LARGE FOR LONG. CITING WANTED PALESTINIANS' ABILITY TO AVOID CAPTURE UNDER ISRAELI RULE, HE ADDED THAT EVEN TRAPPED IN GAZA, UNLESS THE TWO TURNED THEMSELVES IN, THE SEARCH COULD BE LENGTHY. BOTH AL QIDRAH AND SHRITEH SAID THEY BELIEVED THAT SOME OF THE GUARDS WERE PROBABLY SYMPATHETIC TO HAMAS AND HELPED IN THE ESCAPE. LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED THAT FIVE PA MILITARY INTELLIGENCE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN ARRESTED IN CONNECTION TO THE ESCAPE. GOI KEEPS AN OPEN MIND, BUT WARY OF PA/HAMAS INTENTIONS -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) ARAB AFFAIRS ADVISOR SHALOM HARARI (PROTECT) TOLD POLOFF THAT THE GOI HAD NO "PROOF" THAT THERE WAS PA COLLUSION IN THE ESCAPE, OR EVEN THAT SENIOR OFFICIALS IN HAMAS SUPPORTED THE ESCAPE. HE SAID THE GOI WOULD WATCH TO SEE HOW THE INCIDENT PLAYED OUT, BUT THE FACT WAS THAT SUCH THINGS HAPPEN. HE RECALLED A 1987 PRISON BREAK BY FOUR ISLAMIC JIHAD TERRORISTS WHO ESCAPED FROM AN ISRAELI PRISON INSIDE GAZA. "THEY JUMPED OVER TWO FENCES AFTER GETTING OUT OF THE PRISON! IT HAPPENS." ¶4. (C) ACCORDING TO HARARI, THE GOI REMAINS SUSPICIOUS BECAUSE ARAFAT IS AT SUCH A DELICATE POINT IN HIS NEGOTIATIONS. THE CLOSURE ON GAZA WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT BECAUSE ARAFAT HAS NOT REACHED FINAL AGREEMENT WITH HAMAS. "THEY HAVE NOT DECIDED TO END ATTACKS AGAINST ISRAELIS." ARAFAT IS MAINTAINING AN "EXTREMELY COMPLEX BALANCING ACT" AND THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR HIM TO MISCALCULATE. ON THE ONE HAND HE HAS THE GOI, THE USG AND PALESTINIAN PUBLIC OPINION WHICH NO LONGER SUPPORTS THE SUICIDE ATTACKS, AND ON THE OTHER THE STRATEGIC NEGOTIATIONS WITH HAMAS. FOR THESE NEGOTIATIONS HE MUST LOOSEN AS WELL AS TIGHTEN THE NOOSE AROUND HAMAS. A MISTAKE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NOOSE COULD LET AN ATTACK SLIP THROUGH. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) HARARI WAS SURPRISINGLY CHARITABLE IN DESCRIBING ARAFAT'S NEED TO STRIKE A BALANCE BETWEEN TOUGHNESS AND FLEXIBILITY IN HIS DEALINGS WITH HAMAS. THE DOMINANT AND AUTHORITATIVE ISRAELI POSITION AT THIS TIME, VOICED BY RABIN AND OTHERS IN THE POLICY LOOP, IS THAT ARAFAT'S SECURITY EFFORTS HAVE SLACKENED IN RECENT WEEKS AND THAT HE MUST DO BETTER IF HE WANTS THE CLOSURE LIFTED. INDYK