SAUDI ARABIA: REGARDLESS OF AGE SENIORITY,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 005405 E.O.12958: DECL: OADR 1.6X5 TAGS: PINR PGOV SA SUBJECT: SAUDI ARABIA: REGARDLESS OF AGE SENIORITY, PRINCE MISH'AL IS NOT A CONTENDER REF: A. RIYADH 5123, B. STATE 282410 ¶1. CLASSIFIED BY DCM THEODORE KATTOUF: 1.5B. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶2. (C) THE BODY OF EVIDENCE DEMONSTRATES THAT CONTRARY TO SOME PUBLISHED REPORTS, PRINCE MISH'AL (AS WELL AS THE DECEASED PRINCE ABD AL-MUHSIN) WAS BORN BEFORE MINDEF SULTAN. HOWEVER, MISH'AL'S SENIORITY IN AGE DOES NOT MAKE HIM A SUCCESSION CANDIDATE, SUFFERING AS HE DOES FROM SEVERAL STRIKES: A NON-SAUDI MATERNAL LINEAGE, A LACKLUSTER RECORD IN GOVERNMENT OFFICE, AND A REPUTATION FOR ARGUING WITH HIS BROTHERS. SULTAN'S ECLIPSE OF MISH'AL, THE SEVENTH TIME A SENIOR SON OF KING ABD AL-AZIZ HAS BEEN PASSED OVER, IS A MEASURE OF THE STRICT CRITERIA APPLIED TO SUCCESSION CANDIDATES. END SUMMARY -------------- PRINCE MISH'AL IS OLDER -------------- ¶3. (U) IN A SEARCH OF OUR BIOGRAPHIC FILES, AND IN DISCUSSIONS WITH THE UK EMBASSY ROYAL FAMILY WATCHER, THERE APPEARS TO BE DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE THAT BOTH MISH'AL BIN ABD AL-AZIZ AND ABD AL-MUHSIN BIN ABD AL-AZIZ ARE/WERE OLDER THAN MINDEF SULTAN. ABD AL-MUHSIN'S DEATH IN 1985 MAKES THE POINT MOOT, BUT MISH'AL'S SENIORITY IN AGE OVER SULTAN ADDS TO THE BODY OF EVIDENCE THAT THE INNER CIRCLE OF THE AL SAUD CAN AND DO EXCLUDE FROM SUCCESSION THOSE FOUND LACKING IN LINEAGE, LEADERSHIP, AND PERSONAL CHARACTER. HISTORICALLY, MISH'AL'S SENIORITY TO SULTAN WAS EVIDENT IN: -- THE MARCH 29, 1964 PETITION BY MEMBERS OF THE ROYAL FAMILY URGING CROWN PRINCE FAYSAL TO EXERCISE THE POWERS OF KING: MISH'AL, THEN THE AMIR OF MECCA, WAS THE 20TH SIGNATOR (ABD AL-MUHSIN WAS 17TH),WHILE MINDEF SULTAN WAS THE 24TH. -- PRESS REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF KING KHALID IN 1982: MISH'AL, THEN OUT OF GOVERNMENT, WAS LISTED AHEAD OF MINDEF SULTAN IN THE REPORT OF THOSE ATTENDING THE FUNERAL PRAYER. -- REFTEL (A) ACCOUNTS OF THE FUNERAL OF THE SAUD AL-KABIR ELDER: AGAIN, PROTOCOL PLACED MISH'AL AHEAD OF SULTAN. -- KING FAHD'S DECEMBER 5, 1995 HOSPITAL MAJLIS: MOST RECENTLY, THE TELEVISED HOSPITAL MAJLIS, IN WHICH THE KING'S BROTHERS WERE SEATED ALONG THE WALL IN STRICT BIRTH PECKING ORDER, HAD MISH'AL SECOND TO BANDAR BIN ABD AL-AZIZ. SEATED NEXT TO MISH'AL WAS SULTAN. ¶4. (C) THE UK EMBASSY ROYAL WATCHER CHECKED THEIR COPY OF LEES' "HANDBOOK OF THE AL SAUD," WHICH WE BELIEVE IS THE SOURCE OF THE MISINFORMATION, AND REPORTED THAT SOMEONE HAD ANNOTATED THE BOOK IN PEN TO REFLECT BOTH MISH'AL'S AND ABD AL-MUHSIN'S SENIORITY TO SULTAN. -------------- -------------- MISH'AL BOWS OUT OF SUCCESSION - ALBEIT UNGRACEFULLY -------------- -------------- ¶5. (S) IN MARCH 1992, THE CROWN PRINCE'S PRINCIPAL ADVISER, SHAYKH ABD AL-MUHSIN AL-TUWAIJRI, RELATED MISH'AL'S EXTREME UNHAPPINESS WITH NOT BEING SELECTED SECOND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER IN 1982, DESPITE HIS SENIORITY IN AGE TO MINDEF SULTAN. ACCORDING TO TUWAIJRI, THE DESIGNATION OF SULTAN WAS MADE QUICKLY AND ONLY BY THE THREE INDIVIDUALS INVOLVED -- FAHD, ABDULLAH, AND SULTAN. TUWAIJRI NOTED THAT MISH'AL COMPLAINED TO BANDAR BIN ABD AL-AZIZ, WHO TOOK UP HIS CAUSE. ¶6. (C) IN THE INTERVENING YEARS, HOWEVER, MISH'AL HAS RECONCILED HIMSELF TO THE FACT THAT HIS IMMEDIATE BROTHERS FIND HIM LACKING IN THE QUALITIES THEY DESIRE IN A KING. (NOTE: MISH'AL HAD THREE STRIKES AGAINST HIM: HIS NON-SAUDI MATERNAL LINEAGE, HIS LACKLUSTER RECORD AS A PUBLIC SERVANT, AND HIS ARGUMENTATIVE REPUTATION.) THIS RECOGNITION HAS BEEN MADE PUBLICLY AND PRIVATELY. IN A 1992 INTERVIEW WITH THE SAUDI NEWSPAPER "AL-MADINAH," MISH'AL DECLARED HIS FEALTY TO FAHD AND ABDULLAH AND NOTED THAT "I PERSONALLY DO NOT ENVY THEIR LIVES WHICH ARE FULL OF SERVICE FOR ALL; WHOEVER LEADS SUCH A LIFE MUST BE SHOULDERING A BURDENSOME DUTY." AND, IN A JUNE 1995 CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR, MISH'AL STATED THAT HE HOPED "NEVER TO BE AN OFFICIAL." -------------- COMMENT: MANIPULATING THE SUCCESSION -------------- ¶7. (C) TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MISH'AL AND ABD AL-MUHSIN'S CHRONOLOGICAL SENIORITY TO SULTAN, ON SEVEN OCCASIONS THE SONS OF KING ABD AL-AZIZ HAVE PASSED OVER WOULD-BE CONTENDERS TO THE POSITION OF KING. WHILE SENIORITY IS CRITICAL TO ENTERING THE SUCCESSION LINE-UP (AS SECOND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OR CROWN PRINCE),SO TOO ARE MATERNAL SAUDI LINEAGE, PERSONAL CHARACTER, AND DEMONSTRATED LEADERSHIP POTENTIAL. MEASURED AGAINST THESE CRITERIA, ONLY A HANDFUL OF THE 25 SURVIVING SONS OF KING ABD AL-AZIZ SHOULD REALISTICALLY BE CONSIDERED PRESENT AND POTENTIAL POWERBROKERS. SEPTEL WILL ANALYZE SUCCESSION POSSIBILITIES. MABUS