SAUDI ARABIA: WHAT IF THE KING REMAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 005221


LONDON FOR TUELLER
PARIS FOR ALLEGRONE


E.O.12356: DECL: 11/30/15
TAGS: PGOV PINS SA
SUBJECT: SAUDI ARABIA: WHAT IF THE KING REMAINS
INCAPICITATED?

REF: (A) RIYADH 5218; (B) RIYADH 5219


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. CLASSIFIED BY DCM
THEODORE KATTOUF - 1.5 B,D.


2. (C) THE CURRENT MEDICAL PROGNOSIS FOR KING FAHD,
ALBEIT INCOMPLETE AND TENTATIVE, SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MEDIUM-TERM OR EVEN PROLONGED RECOVERY
FROM WHAT IS DESCRIBED DEFINITIVELY BY OUR MEDICAL
SOURCES AS A STROKE. AT THIS STAGE, WITHIN HOURS OF
FAHD ENTERING THE HOSPITAL, THE KING'S CONDITION DOES
NOT REPEAT NOT APPEAR IMMEDIATELY LIFE-THREATENING
(ALTHOUGH IT COULD LATER MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION).
INDEED, OUR RMO ALSO NOTES THAT RAPID AND FULL RECOVERY,
EVEN WITHIN A DAY OR TWO, IS ALSO ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. THE
KING'S PERSONAL SECRETARY STRONGLY IMPLIED IN A CALL TO
THE AMBASSADOR THAT SUCH AN UPBEAT PROGNOSIS IS
WARRANTED (SEE REF B).


3. (C) ASSUMING, HOWEVER, THAT SOME DEGREE OF
INCAPACITATION PERSISTS, PERHAPS OVER A PERIOD OF WEEKS,
THE ISSUE OF ITS IMPACT ON DECISION-MAKING AND ON
INTERNAL DYNAMICS WITHIN THE AL SAUD MUST BE FACED.


4. (C) ASSUMING THAT FAHD DOES NOT SHOW IMMEDIATE SIGNS
OF FULL RECOVERY WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE
COUNCIL OF ELDERS, CONSISTING OF THE MEMBERS OF THE AL
SAUD AND MOSTLY OF THE SENIOR SURVIVING SONS OF ABDUL
AZIZ, WILL LIKELY GATHER INFORMALLY AND QUIETLY TO
ASSESS THE KING'S CONDITION. THEY WILL BE MOTIVATED TO
PROJECT AN AURA OF STABILITY, CONTINUITY, FAMILY UNITY,
AND CONTINUED LOYALTY TO KING FAHD. ALMOST CERTAINLY,
THE IMMEDIATE CONSENSUS WILL BE THAT CROWN PRINCE
ABDULLAH SHOULD BE ASKED TO ACT IN THE NAME OF THE
KING. SENIOR ULEMA, THE OTHER PILLAR OF THE SAUDI
REGIME, ARE LIKELY TO TACITLY AGREE. THE COUNCIL OF
MINISTERS, COMPOSED PARTLY OF NONROYALS, WILL NOT PLAY A
ROLE IN ANY DECISION THAT IS REACHED.


5. (C) OUTSIDE THE FAMILY CONSULTATIONS, THE SAG IS
LIKELY TO KEEP MEDIA REPORTS AND SPECULATION ABOUT THE
KING'S HEALTH TO A MINIMUM. POSITIVE BULLETINS ARE
LIKELY TO BE STANDARD FARE. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT EVEN
MORE STEPPED-UP SECURITY PRECAUTIONS AT PUBLIC BUILDINGS
AND IN THE COUNTRY GENERALLY, IN A BID TO MINIMIZE
CHANCES OF A SECOND TERRORIST ATTACK OR OTHER POLITICAL
VIOLENCE IN A PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY.


6. (C) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEEKS, ASSUMING
FAHD'S CONDITION REMAINS STABLE, ABDULLAH IS UNLIKELY TO
BE DESIGNATED AS REGENT, IF ONLY BECAUSE THE ONLY
PRECEDENT FOR THE NEW SITUATION IS THE FAMILY'S DECISION
TO TRANSFER KING SAUD'S POWERS TO CP FAYSAL AS REGENT IN

1964. THE CRUCIAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SITUATIONS
IS THAT SAUD WAS REMOVED BECAUSE OF INCOMPETENCE AND NOT
FOR REASONS OF PHYSICAL INCAPACITY. CROWN PRINCE
ABDULLAH REGULARLY CHAIRS THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS AND
HAS LONG BEEN PROJECTED TO THE NATION, AND TREATED, AS
THE CLEARLY ESTABLISHED NO. TWO BEHIND THE KING. WE
HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT HE WOULD NOT EFFECTIVELY
STEP FORWARD, WITH FULL FAMILY BACKING, AT THIS TIME.


7. (C) ADDING TO THE INNATE CONSERVATISM OF THE AL SAUD
AND THE FAMILY'S LONG TRADITION OF MAINTAINING COHESION
AND SOLIDARITY WILL BE CONCERN WITH TH SECURITY
ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING THE NOVEMBER 13 OMBING ATTACK ON
OPM/SANG. BECAUSE THIS HAS BEEN WIDELY VIEWED AS AN
ATTACK ON THE REGIME AS MUCH AS ON THE U.S., THE SENIOR
PRINCES WILL BE FURTHER ENCOURAGED TO AVOID ANY
APPEARANCE OF DISUNITY BY DEVIATING FROM THE ESTABLISHED
LINE OF AUTHORITY OR SUCCESSION.


8. (C) IN SUM, IN THE SHORT TERM (DEFINED AS OVER THE
NEXT 30 OR SO DAYS),WE ANTICIPATE A SMOOTH AND PEACEFUL
EMPHASIS ON MAINTAINING THE STATUS QUO.
DECISION-MAKING, NEVER A RAPID PROCESS IN SAUDI ARABIA,
MAY SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY, ESPECIALLY AS ABDULLAH WILL
CAREFULLY AVOID ANY SIGN OF PRESUMING FAHD'S PERMANENT
REMOVAL FROM OFFICE OR BY INAPPROPRIATELY ACTING AS IF
HE WERE KING.


9. (C) LOOKING AHEAD FURTHER THAN A MONTH, THE KING'S
ACTUAL MEDICAL CONDITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT DECISIONS
THE COUNCIL OF ELDERS WILL TAKE. A PROGNOSIS OF A SLOW
BUT SURE RECOVERY OF FAHD'S FACULTIES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
LEAD THE ELDERS TO CONCUR IN THE NEW STATUS QUO. A
PROGNOSIS OF PROLONGED OR PERMANENT INCAPACITATION WOULD
FORCE THE COUNCIL, I.E. THE AL SAUD, TO THEN ADDRESS THE
FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE OF ACTUAL SUCCESSION. AT THIS
JUNCTURE, WE HAVE LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE PRIME OBJECTIVE
AGAIN WILL BE TO PROJECT AN IMAGE OF CONTROL, STABILITY,
AND CONTINUITY.


10. (C) SHOULD FAHD'S MEDICAL CONDITION DETERIORATE AND
HE DIE, THE INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISM OUTLINED ABOVE WOULD
ALSO COME INTO PLAY. UNDER SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES, THE ROLE
OF THE ULEMA MIGHT BE MORE VISIBLY ENHANCED AS THE NEW
KING - CP ABDULLAH RAISED TO THE THRONE - WOULD REQUIRE
THEIR FORMAL SANCTION. IN A SENSE, THE KING'S DEATH,
WHILE PRECIPITATING COMPLEX SCENARIOS OF POWER TRANSFER
TO CP ABDULLAH AND SPECULATION ABOUT WHO WILL FOLLOW
ABDULLAH, WOULD BE SIMPLER, IF ONLY BECAUSE THE CURRENT
LINE OF SUCCESSION IS SO WELL ESTABLISHED. WE SEE
LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE CP COULD OR WOULD BE PUSHED
ASIDE; NOR, IN FACT, DO WE BELIEVE THAT MINDEF SULTAN,
CURRENTLY THIRD IN LINE TO THE THRONE, WOULD MAKE SUCH A
PLAY. EVEN LESS LIKELY WOULD BE AN ATTEMPT BY ANOTHER
PRINCE - WHETHER ANOTHER SON OF ABDUL AZIZ OR A GRANDSON
- TO SECURE POWER.

MABUS