INTERVENING IN BURUNDI IN THE EVENT OF

S E C R E T HARARE 004281 SIPDIS E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM BY ZI SUBJECT: INTERVENING IN BURUNDI IN THE EVENT OF WIDE-SCALE VIOLENCE REF: STATE 86948 ¶1. SECRET- ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. BEGIN SUMMARY. ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS SHARE OUR CONCERN ABOUT THE CONTINUING VIOLENCE IN BURUNDI AND RECOGNIZE THAT DIRECT MILITARY INTERVENTION UNDER THE AEGIS OF THE UN AND/OR THE OAU MAY BE THE ONLY WAY TO AVOID ANOTHER RWANDA SITUATION. ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIALS WILL DISCUSS A POSSIBLE TROOP CONTRIBUTION TO A BURUNDIAN PEACEKEEPING FORCE WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND THEIR COLLEAGUES IN THE DEFENSE MINISTRY. THE ZIMBABWEANS PROMISED TO LET US KNOW ASAP IF (AND UNDER WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES) THE GOZ MIGHT BE PREPARED TO CONTRIBUTE TROOPS TO A BURUNDIAN PEACEKEEPING FORCE. END SUMMARY ¶3. THE AMBASSADOR MET WITH ZIMBABWE'S PERMANENT SECRETARY FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS STAN CHIGWEDERE ON APRIL SIPDIS 13 TO DISCUSS THE CRISIS IN BURUNDI AND TO MAKE THE DEMARCHE CONTAINED IN REFTEL. FOLLOWING THE AMBASSADOR'S PRESENTATION, CHIGWEDERE EXPRESSED DISMAY AT THE SITUATION IN BURUNDI AND SAID THAT THE GOZ WAS ALSO "SERIOUSLY CONCERNED" ABOUT THE CONTINUING CYCLE OF VIOLENCE IN THAT COUNTRY. CHIGWEDERE SAID THAT THE ISSUE OF BURUNDI HAS BEEN A RECENT SUBJECT OF DISCUSSIONS AT THE MFA AND THAT HE HOPED TO GET A PERSONAL READOUT FROM THE SOUTH AFRICA FOREIGN MINISTER FOLLOWING HIS OAU SPONSORED TRIP TO BURUNDI. DISPLAYING SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 HARARE 04281 200508Z A FAIRLY BROAD KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE CURRENT BURUNDIAN SITUATION, CHIGWEDERE PLACED MUCH OF THE BLAME ON BURUNDI'S TUTSI-DOMINATED MILITARY AND THE EXTREMIST ELEMENTS IN FRODEBU. ¶4. CHIGWEDERE WELCOMED OUR CONSULTATIONS ON THE BURUNDI ISSUE AND AGREED WITH OUR ASSESSMENT THAT WE MUST TRY TO DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO PREVENT ANOTHER RWANDA. CHIGWEDERE ALSO AGREED THAT A CREDIBLE THREAT AND/OR ACTUAL USE OF A MILITARY PEACEKEEPING FORCE MIGHT BE THE ONLY WAY TO PREVENT OR CONTAIN A MAJOR ERUPTION OF VIOLENCE IN BURUNDI. ¶5. CHIGWEDERE SAID HE AND HIS MFA COLLEAGUES WOULD RAISE THE TROOP ISSUE AT A HIGH LEVEL IN THE DEFENSE MINISTRY AND ALSO WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE. HE SAID HE WOULD NOT PREJUDGE ANY DECISION, BUT WOULD GET BACK TO THE AMBASSADOR AS SOON AS HE HAD ANY HARD NEWS ON WHETHER THE GOZ WOULD BE PREPARED TO COMMIT ANY TROOPS. CHIGWEDERE URGED THE AMBASSADOR TO RAISE THE BURUNDI ISSUE WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE DURING THE AMBASSADOR'S FORTHCOMING PRESENTATION OF CREDENTIALS CEREMONY. ¶6. COMMENT: ALTHOUGH THE GOZ IS SERIOUSLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE BLOODLETTING IN BURUNDI, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW THE ZIMBABWEANS WILL REACT ON THIS ISSUE. ON THE PLUS SIDE, THEY HAVE RESPONDED FAVORABLY TO A NUMBER OF PEACEKEEPING REQUESTS AND ARE CURRENTLY COMMITTED TO SENDING A BATTALION TO ANGOLA. HOWEVER, ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE, ZIMBABWE'S COMMITMENT TO PROVIDE TROOPS TO THE ANGOLAN PEACEKEEPING OPERATION, THE LACK SECRET SECRET PAGE 04 HARARE 04281 200508Z OF GOZ FUNDS TO SUPPORT ANOTHER MILITARY OPERATION, AND A LACK OF FINANCIAL OR MATERIAL SUPPORT FROM THE U.S. MAY DETER THE ZIMBABWEANS FROM GETTING INVOLVED IN BURUNDI. WE ALSO NOTE THAT THE ZIMBABWEANS ARE RELYING ON BRITISH LOGISTICAL SUPPORT FOR THEIR FORTHCOMING OPERATIONS IN ANGOLA. CARSON SECRET NNNN