POST REPORTING PLAN - CROATIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 002605

SIPDIS


FOR EUR/EE AND INR/IL/RD

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS:
SUBJECT: POST REPORTING PLAN - CROATIA

REF: 93 ZAGREB 4645


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

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2. SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION
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WE ARE SUBMITTING HEREWITH A FORESHORTENED POST
REPORTING PLAN BASED ON POST'S MPP (REFTEL). WE REGRET
THE LATENESS OF OUR SUBMISSION BUT OUR WORKLOAD AND
LIMITED NUMBER OF REPORTING PERSONNEL HAVE LARGELY MADE
SUCH AN EFFORT MOOT; WHAT FOLLOWS WILL GUIDE OUR WORK
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING YEAR. END SUMMARY
AND INTRODUCTION.

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3. MISSION'S OVERRIDING GOALS
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MISSION'S OVERRIDING GOALS, AS SET FORTH IN REFTEL:

-- MEETING EMERGENCY AND LONGER-TERM HUMANITARIAN
RELIEF AND REFUGEE PROTECTION NEEDS IN CROATIA AND
BOSNIA;
-
-- A HALT TO MILITARY SKIRMISHES, AND THE AVOIDANCE OF
FULL-SCALE WAR, IN AND OVER THE KRAJINA, AND THE
PEACEFUL REINTEGRATION OF THE UNPAS INTO CROATIA;

-- AN END TO HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES BY BOSNIAN CROAT
FORCES AND THE EARLY PROSECUTION OF PERSONS RESPONSIBLE
FOR COMMITTING WAR CRIMES;

-- A MORE DEMOCRATIC CROATIA, MARKED BY A VIGOROUSLY
PLURALISTIC SYSTEM, FREE MEDIA, THE RULE OF LAW, AND
RESPECT FOR THE RIGHTS AND DIGNITY OF MINORITIES;

-- PROVIDING THE HIGHEST STANDARD OF CONSULAR SERVICE,
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PARTICULARLY IN AREAS RELATED TO THE HUMANITARIAN
TRAGEDY IN EX-YUGOSLAVIA, INCLUDING VISAS, PAROLE,
REFUGEE PROCESSING, AND MEDICAL AND OTHER HUMANITARIAN
EVACUATION.

-- AN ECONOMICALLY TRANSFORMED CROATIA, WHICH REFLECTS
PRIVATE OWNERSHIP, FREE MARKETS, A STABLE CURRENCY, AND
MINIMAL BARRIERS TO TRADE AND INVESTMENT;

-- STEADILY INCREASING SALES OF NON-MILITARY U.S. GOODS
AND SERVICES IN CROATIA.

-- IN ADDITION (AND NOT IN REFTEL),THE MISSION'S
RESPONSIBILITY TO REPRESENT THE U.S. IN THE CONDUCT AND
SUPPORT OF THE REINTEGRATION TALKS BETWEEN CROATIA AND
ITS SECESSIONIST SERBIAN MINORITY HAS BECOME OUR MAJOR
PRIORITY

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4. PROJECTED ANALYTICAL REPORTING
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"RSK" LEADERSHIP FACTIONS - THE EFFECTS ON THE
REINTEGRATION PROCESS (ESSENTIAL; POL; 8/94)

CROATIA'S PATH TO MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY -- SIGNIFICANCE
OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SABOR (DESIRABLE; POL;
10/94)
PROGRESS IN PRIVATIZATION, A REPORT CARD FOR CROATIA
(ESSENTIAL; ECON; 9/94).

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5. BIOGRAPHIC/LEADERSHIP REPORTING
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BEFORE THE END OF THE CALENDAR YEAR, WE HOPE TO PRODUCE
A FRESH LOOK AT PRESIDENT TUDJMAN, PROBABLY IN
CONNECTION WITH HIS POLITICAL PROSPECTS. THE REPORT ON
"RSK" LEADERSHIP (PARA 4 ABOVE) WILL INCLUDE SOME
BIOGRAPHIC ELEMENTS.

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6. KEY AREAS OF CONTINUING INTEREST
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-- ALL ASPECTS OF REINTEGRATING THE UNPAS, INCLUDING
THE "RSK"-GOC NEGOTIATIONS, GOC ATTITUDES, DOMESTIC
POLITICAL PRESSURES, EFFECTIVENESS OF UNPROFOR, AND
PUBLIC DIPLOMACY;

-- THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL EFFECTS ON CROATIA OF THE
WAR IN BOSNIA;

-- PROGRESS IN FLESHING OUT THE BOSNIA-CROATIA
CONFEDERATION;


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PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02605 02 OF 02 081702Z
ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AGRE-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 A-01 CA-02
CIAE-00 COME-00 DEAE-00 OASY-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EB-01
OIGO-01 FBO-01 IMMC-01 INM-02 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-01
ADS-00 MED-07 MMP-00 MOFM-04 MOF-03 NSAE-00 OCS-06
OES-09 OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PER-01 PM-00 PPT-01
PRS-01 P-01 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 VO-06
ASDS-01 FMP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRME-01 DRL-09 /083W
-------------- 5A6EBF 082255Z /38
R 081654Z JUL 94
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2423

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002605

SIPDIS


FOR EUR/EE AND INR/IL/RD

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS:
SUBJECT: POST REPORTING PLAN - CROATIA


-- HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, INCLUDING ESPECIALLY
AGAINST MINORITIES, THE PROBLEM OF ILLEGAL EVICTIONS,
AND ABUSE OF AUTHORITY;

-- REFUGEE ISSUES, INCLUDING TREATMENT AND POTENTIAL
NEW FLOWS;

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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02605 02 OF 02 081702Z
-- CROATIAN GOVERNMENT RELATIONS WITH KEY MULTINATIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS AND NGOS (UNPROFOR, ICRC, AND OTHERS);

-- DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOCRATIC FREEDOMS (PRESS,
PLURALISM, SPEECH);

-- CROATIAN MILITARYSECURITY POLICY AND CAPABILITIES;
-- ARMS CONTROL AND THE ARMS EMBARGO;

-- DOMESTIC POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS; PARTY SUPPORT,
ESPECIALLY HDZ; EXPECTATIONS OF ELECTIONS;

-- ORGANIZED LABOR, ITS DEVELOPMENT AND POLITICAL
IMPORTANCE;

-- ECONOMIC STA
BILIZATION AND RESTRUCTURING;

-- PROGRESS TOWARD CREATING A MARKET ECONOMY,
PRIVATIZATION;

-- KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS, INCLUDING BANKING AND TOURISM;

-- FOREIGN INVESTMENT;

-- ECONOMIC SANCTIONS;

-- HUMANITARIAN RELIEF PROGRAMS;

-- DEVELOPMENT OF INDEPENDENT CROATIAN FOREIGN POLICY;

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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02605 02 OF 02 081702Z
-- CROATIA'S RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS, ESPECIALLY
ITALY;

-- WAR CRIMES - INDIVIDUAL CASES AND GOVERNMENT POLICY;

-- LEADERSHIP CHANGES; BIOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON KEY
PEOPLE IN ALL FIELDS;

-- TERRORISM (GOVERNMENT POLICY AND PRESENCE IN
CROATIA);

-- CROATIAN PROGRESS IN/WITH EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS (EU,
COE, NATO);

-- CROATIAN RELATIONS WITH BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINIAN CROATS
AND THE HVO.
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7. OTHER REQUIRED REPORTS
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HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT (10/94)

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8. RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS
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WITH THE ARRIVAL IN MAY OF A NEW POL/ECON SECTION CHIEF
AND THE FILLING IN AUGUST OF A NEW POLITICAL REPORTING
OFFICER JOB, OUR RESOURCE PICTURE HAS IMPROVED
SOMEWHAT. NEVERTHELESS, THE CONTINUED THREAT OF WAR,
AND THE MISSION'S HIGH-PRIORITY ROLE IN DEVELOPING AND
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EXECUTING POLICY FOR THE "RSK"-GOC NEGOTIATIONS OVER
REINTEGRATION OF THE UNPA ZONES, PLACE CONSIDERABLE NEW
DEMANDS ON THE RESOURCES WE HAVE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SHORT-TERM NEW POSITION FOCUSED SPECIFICALLY ON HUMAN
RIGHTS, WHICH IS STILL PENDING, IS URGENTLY NEEDED TO
ADD REPORTING FLEXIBILITY. OVERALL, THE VOLUME AND
QUALITY OF OUR REPORTING OF "NORMAL" EVENTS SUCH AS
DOMESTIC POLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AFFECTED IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS BY EXOGENOUS
DEVELOPMENTS SUCH AS PROGRESS IN THE WAR IN BOSNIA OR
FURTHER "RSK"-GOC HOSTILITIES, AND BY THE NUMBER OF
VISITORS.

GALBRAITH


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