POST REPORTING PLAN - CROATIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 002605 SIPDIS FOR EUR/EE AND INR/IL/RD E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: SUBJECT: POST REPORTING PLAN - CROATIA REF: 93 ZAGREB 4645 ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. -------------- ¶2. SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02605 01 OF 02 081701Z WE ARE SUBMITTING HEREWITH A FORESHORTENED POST REPORTING PLAN BASED ON POST'S MPP (REFTEL). WE REGRET THE LATENESS OF OUR SUBMISSION BUT OUR WORKLOAD AND LIMITED NUMBER OF REPORTING PERSONNEL HAVE LARGELY MADE SUCH AN EFFORT MOOT; WHAT FOLLOWS WILL GUIDE OUR WORK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING YEAR. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION. -------------- ¶3. MISSION'S OVERRIDING GOALS -------------- MISSION'S OVERRIDING GOALS, AS SET FORTH IN REFTEL: -- MEETING EMERGENCY AND LONGER-TERM HUMANITARIAN RELIEF AND REFUGEE PROTECTION NEEDS IN CROATIA AND BOSNIA; - -- A HALT TO MILITARY SKIRMISHES, AND THE AVOIDANCE OF FULL-SCALE WAR, IN AND OVER THE KRAJINA, AND THE PEACEFUL REINTEGRATION OF THE UNPAS INTO CROATIA; -- AN END TO HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES BY BOSNIAN CROAT FORCES AND THE EARLY PROSECUTION OF PERSONS RESPONSIBLE FOR COMMITTING WAR CRIMES; -- A MORE DEMOCRATIC CROATIA, MARKED BY A VIGOROUSLY PLURALISTIC SYSTEM, FREE MEDIA, THE RULE OF LAW, AND RESPECT FOR THE RIGHTS AND DIGNITY OF MINORITIES; -- PROVIDING THE HIGHEST STANDARD OF CONSULAR SERVICE, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02605 01 OF 02 081701Z PARTICULARLY IN AREAS RELATED TO THE HUMANITARIAN TRAGEDY IN EX-YUGOSLAVIA, INCLUDING VISAS, PAROLE, REFUGEE PROCESSING, AND MEDICAL AND OTHER HUMANITARIAN EVACUATION. -- AN ECONOMICALLY TRANSFORMED CROATIA, WHICH REFLECTS PRIVATE OWNERSHIP, FREE MARKETS, A STABLE CURRENCY, AND MINIMAL BARRIERS TO TRADE AND INVESTMENT; -- STEADILY INCREASING SALES OF NON-MILITARY U.S. GOODS AND SERVICES IN CROATIA. -- IN ADDITION (AND NOT IN REFTEL),THE MISSION'S RESPONSIBILITY TO REPRESENT THE U.S. IN THE CONDUCT AND SUPPORT OF THE REINTEGRATION TALKS BETWEEN CROATIA AND ITS SECESSIONIST SERBIAN MINORITY HAS BECOME OUR MAJOR PRIORITY -------------- ¶4. PROJECTED ANALYTICAL REPORTING -------------- "RSK" LEADERSHIP FACTIONS - THE EFFECTS ON THE REINTEGRATION PROCESS (ESSENTIAL; POL; 8/94) CROATIA'S PATH TO MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY -- SIGNIFICANCE OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SABOR (DESIRABLE; POL; 10/94) PROGRESS IN PRIVATIZATION, A REPORT CARD FOR CROATIA (ESSENTIAL; ECON; 9/94). CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02605 01 OF 02 081701Z -------------- ¶5. BIOGRAPHIC/LEADERSHIP REPORTING -------------- BEFORE THE END OF THE CALENDAR YEAR, WE HOPE TO PRODUCE A FRESH LOOK AT PRESIDENT TUDJMAN, PROBABLY IN CONNECTION WITH HIS POLITICAL PROSPECTS. THE REPORT ON "RSK" LEADERSHIP (PARA 4 ABOVE) WILL INCLUDE SOME BIOGRAPHIC ELEMENTS. -------------- ¶6. KEY AREAS OF CONTINUING INTEREST -------------- -- ALL ASPECTS OF REINTEGRATING THE UNPAS, INCLUDING THE "RSK"-GOC NEGOTIATIONS, GOC ATTITUDES, DOMESTIC POLITICAL PRESSURES, EFFECTIVENESS OF UNPROFOR, AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY; -- THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL EFFECTS ON CROATIA OF THE WAR IN BOSNIA; -- PROGRESS IN FLESHING OUT THE BOSNIA-CROATIA CONFEDERATION; CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02605 02 OF 02 081702Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AGRE-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 A-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 COME-00 DEAE-00 OASY-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EB-01 OIGO-01 FBO-01 IMMC-01 INM-02 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-01 ADS-00 MED-07 MMP-00 MOFM-04 MOF-03 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OES-09 OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PER-01 PM-00 PPT-01 PRS-01 P-01 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 VO-06 ASDS-01 FMP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRME-01 DRL-09 /083W -------------- 5A6EBF 082255Z /38 R 081654Z JUL 94 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2423 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002605 SIPDIS FOR EUR/EE AND INR/IL/RD E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: SUBJECT: POST REPORTING PLAN - CROATIA -- HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, INCLUDING ESPECIALLY AGAINST MINORITIES, THE PROBLEM OF ILLEGAL EVICTIONS, AND ABUSE OF AUTHORITY; -- REFUGEE ISSUES, INCLUDING TREATMENT AND POTENTIAL NEW FLOWS; CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02605 02 OF 02 081702Z -- CROATIAN GOVERNMENT RELATIONS WITH KEY MULTINATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND NGOS (UNPROFOR, ICRC, AND OTHERS); -- DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOCRATIC FREEDOMS (PRESS, PLURALISM, SPEECH); -- CROATIAN MILITARYSECURITY POLICY AND CAPABILITIES; -- ARMS CONTROL AND THE ARMS EMBARGO; -- DOMESTIC POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS; PARTY SUPPORT, ESPECIALLY HDZ; EXPECTATIONS OF ELECTIONS; -- ORGANIZED LABOR, ITS DEVELOPMENT AND POLITICAL IMPORTANCE; -- ECONOMIC STA BILIZATION AND RESTRUCTURING; -- PROGRESS TOWARD CREATING A MARKET ECONOMY, PRIVATIZATION; -- KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS, INCLUDING BANKING AND TOURISM; -- FOREIGN INVESTMENT; -- ECONOMIC SANCTIONS; -- HUMANITARIAN RELIEF PROGRAMS; -- DEVELOPMENT OF INDEPENDENT CROATIAN FOREIGN POLICY; CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02605 02 OF 02 081702Z -- CROATIA'S RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS, ESPECIALLY ITALY; -- WAR CRIMES - INDIVIDUAL CASES AND GOVERNMENT POLICY; -- LEADERSHIP CHANGES; BIOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON KEY PEOPLE IN ALL FIELDS; -- TERRORISM (GOVERNMENT POLICY AND PRESENCE IN CROATIA); -- CROATIAN PROGRESS IN/WITH EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS (EU, COE, NATO); -- CROATIAN RELATIONS WITH BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINIAN CROATS AND THE HVO. -------------- ¶7. OTHER REQUIRED REPORTS -------------- HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT (10/94) -------------- ¶8. RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS -------------- WITH THE ARRIVAL IN MAY OF A NEW POL/ECON SECTION CHIEF AND THE FILLING IN AUGUST OF A NEW POLITICAL REPORTING OFFICER JOB, OUR RESOURCE PICTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT. NEVERTHELESS, THE CONTINUED THREAT OF WAR, AND THE MISSION'S HIGH-PRIORITY ROLE IN DEVELOPING AND CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02605 02 OF 02 081702Z EXECUTING POLICY FOR THE "RSK"-GOC NEGOTIATIONS OVER REINTEGRATION OF THE UNPA ZONES, PLACE CONSIDERABLE NEW DEMANDS ON THE RESOURCES WE HAVE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-TERM NEW POSITION FOCUSED SPECIFICALLY ON HUMAN RIGHTS, WHICH IS STILL PENDING, IS URGENTLY NEEDED TO ADD REPORTING FLEXIBILITY. OVERALL, THE VOLUME AND QUALITY OF OUR REPORTING OF "NORMAL" EVENTS SUCH AS DOMESTIC POLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS BY EXOGENOUS DEVELOPMENTS SUCH AS PROGRESS IN THE WAR IN BOSNIA OR FURTHER "RSK"-GOC HOSTILITIES, AND BY THE NUMBER OF VISITORS. GALBRAITH CONFIDENTIAL NNNN