SUDANESE MISCHIEF-MAKING: DOES IT MATTER?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 KHARTOUM 06366



LONDON FOR YOUNG; PARIS FOR MORAN

E.O. 12356; DECL:OADR

TAGS: PREL, KISL, PTER, SU

SUBJECT: SUDANESE MISCHIEF-MAKING: DOES IT MATTER?



REF: A) DUSHANBE 2573 (NOTAL); B) NOUAKCHOTT 3541





1. SECRET/NOFORN ENTIRE TEXT.



2. SUMMARY. THE GOS/NIF IS INDOCTRINATING ITS PEOPLE

IN ITS RADICAL, ANTI-WESTERN VERSION OF ISLAM. IT

PROMOTES ITS IDEOLOGY ABROAD BY TRAINING AND HELPING

FOREIGN ISLAMISTS AND BY PROSELYTIZING THROUGH

ISLAMIST NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS. THE GOS/NIP

ALSO SEEKS TO EXPORT POLITICAL CHANGE BY FORCE, AS

EVIDENCED BY ITS EFFORTS TO DESTABILIZE ERITREA AND

UGANDA. MOREOVER, THE GOS/NIF SUPPORTS MOST MAJOR

MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORIST GROUPS.



3. THE IMPORT OF THESE ACTIVITIES SHOULD NOT BE

OVERSTATED: TERRORISTS WILL CONTINUE TO OPERATE,

STABILITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA WILL REMAIN

PRECARIOUS, AND RADICAL ISLAMISTS WORLDWIDE WILL

CONTINUE TO OPPOSE THE U.S. WITH OR WITHOUT SUDAN'S

HELP. GOS/NIF BEHAVIOR, HOWEVER, MAKES THINGS WORSE

ON ALL THREE SCORES. ONE OF THE POOREST COUNTRIES IN

THE WORLD, SUDAN NONETHELESS SUCCEEDS IN PROJECTING

INFLUENCE ABROAD; UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS UNIFORMLY

NEGATIVE IN TERMS OF U.S. VALUES AND INTERESTS. END

SUMMARY.



4. SINCE THE GOS/NIF SEIZED POWER IN 1989 IT HAS

BECOME INCREASINGLY CLEAR THAT THIS OSTENSIBLY

MILITARY GOVERNMENT IS A TOOL OF SUDAN'S NATIONAL

ISLAMIC FRONT (NIF). SPEAKING TO U.S. OFFICIALS,

SENIOR OFFICIALS OF THE GOS AND THE NIF THAT CONTROLS

IT OFTEN PORTRAY THEMSELVES AS "MODERATE" ISLAMISTS.

THEY SAY THEY BEAR NO FUNDAMENTAL HOSTILITY TO THE

WEST OR TO THE U.S., AND BLAME STRAINED U.S- SUDANESE

RELATIONS ON AN ALLEGED U.S. BIAS AGAINST ISLAM.



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GOS/NIF SEEKS TO INDOCTRINATE SUDAN

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5. THEIR PROTESTATIONS, HOWEVER, ARE BELIED BY THE

EXTREMIST MESSAGE THE REGIME PROPOUNDS TO THE

SUDANESE. THE UBIQUITOUS GOS/NIF PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN

PROMOTES A MILITANT AND INTOLERANT VERSION OF ISLAM.

ALTHOUGH SUDANESE BELONG TO A VARIETY OF CREEDS,

OFFICIAL RHETORIC TREATS ISLAM AS THE DE FACTO STATE

RELIGION AND ADVOCATES INFUSING ALL OF SOCIETY WITH

ITS VALUES. OFFICIAL PROPAGANDA EXTOLS THE WAR IN

THE SOUTH AS A "JIHAD" (HOLY WAR) AGAINST UNBELIEVERS. <br />


6. NOWHERE, PERHAPS, IS THE EXTREMISM OF GOS/NIF

ISLAMIST PROPAGANDA MORE APPARENT THAN IN ITS

TREATMENT OF THE WEST. GOS/NIP OFFICIALS ROUTINELY

DEPICT THE WEST AS UNGODLY, DECADENT, AND HOSTILE.

THEY SINGLE OUT THE U.S. FOR SPECIAL ATTACK,

PORTRAYING IT AS A MALEVOLENT POWER BENT ON COMBATING

ISLAM. THIS DRUMBEAT IS RELENTLESS AND PERVASIVE.



7. IT IS A STAPLE OF THE GOS-CONTROLLED MEDIA, WHICH

ARE FULL OF COMMENTARIES, ARTICLES, EDITORIALS, AND

SONGS LAMBASTING THE U.S. A POPULAR VIDEO THE T.V.

IS RUNNING SUMS UP THE MESSAGE, PORTRAYING THE U.S.

AS THE FOE. IMAGES OF U.S. FORCES ARE CONTRASTED

WITH SHOTS OF THE GOS'S ISLAMIC POPULAR DEFENCE

FORCES (PDF) MARCHING PROUDLY BY. OTHER IMAGES SHOW

LIGHTNING SYMBOLICALLY STRIKING THE U.S. STATUE OF

LIBERTY. THE LYRICS AMPLIFY THE THEME OF THE U.S. AS

THE ENEMY. SUCH PROPAGANDA IS DAILY MEDIA FARE.



8. THE GOS/NIP'S RADICAL ISLAMIST MESSAGE, WITH ITS

STRONG ANTI-U.S. COMPONENT, IS CONVEYED IN OTHER WAYS

AS WELL. TENS OF THOUSANDS OF SUDANESE A YEAR ABSORB

HEAVY DOSES OF IT IN POPULAR DEFENSE FORCES'

TRAINING. (PDF SONGS OFTEN DESCRIBE HOW THE PDF WILL

DEFEAT THE AMERICANS.) PRO-NIP TEACHERS RELAY THE

MESSAGE IN SCHOOLS AND UNIVERSITIES, AND

GOS-APPOINTED PREACHERS ECHO THE THEMES IN SERMONS AT

MOSQUES.



9. JUST HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS PROPAGANDA HAS IS HARD

TO TELL. MANY SUDANESE DISMISS IT OUT OF HAND.

OTHERS, HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY AMONG THE YOUNG AND LESS

EDUCATED, HEED IT MORE. MANY HAVE NO OTHER SOURCE OF

INFORMATION ON THE OUTSIDE WORLD. MOROEVER, SUDANESE

MUSLIMS ARE OFTEN DEEPLY RELIGIOUS. BY PORTRAYING

ISLAM AS UNDER U.S. ASSAULT, GOS/NIP PROPAGANDA

ELICITS AMONG SOME AN EMOTIONAL RESPONSE. WE THINK

THIS PROPAGANDA IS CONVINCING A SEGMENT OF OPINION

THAT ISLAM IS THREATENED AND THAT THE US. IS THE FOE.



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AND TRIES TO PROMOTE RADICALISM WORLDWIDE

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10. THE GOS/NIP IS NOT CONTENT, HOWEVER, WITH PUSHING

RADICAL ISLAM AT HOME. IT PROMOTES ITS WORLDVIEW

ABROAD AS WELL. A SPECIAL UNIVERSITY IN KHARTOUM,

AFRICA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY (AIU),SCHOOLS

THOUSANDS OF FOREIGNERS, MOSTLY AFRICANS, IN THE NIP

VERSION OF ISLAM. ALMOST ALL ARE ON SCHOLARSHIPS.

FOREIGNERS ALSO HAVE SCHOLARSHIPS TO OTHER SUDANESE

UNIVERSITIES WHERE THE TEACHING LIKEWISE LEANS

HEAVILY TOWARD RADICAL ISLAM, WITH A STRONG

ANTI-WESTERN COMPONENT.



11. UPON GRADUATING, THESE STUDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO

GO HOME TO IMPART WHAT THEY HAVE LEARNED.

ADMITTEDLY, JUST AS MOSCOW'S PATRICE LUMUMBA

UNIVERSITY PRODUCED ITS SHARE OF ANTI-COMMUNISTS, NOT

ALL FOREIGN STUDENTS ARE IMPRESSED WITH WHAT THEY SEE

AND HEAR IN SUDAN. STILL, A NUMBER LEAVE CONVINCED.



12. THE GOS/NIF FURTHER PROMOTES RADICAL ISLAM

THROUGH EXTENSIVE TIES TO LIKE-MINDED ISLAMISTS

WORLDWIDE. TWO INSTRUMENTS TO THIS END ARE THE

POPULAR ARAB ISLAMIC CONFERENCE (PAIC),HEADED BY NIF

SECRETARY GENERAL HASSAN TURABI, AND THE COUNCIL FOR

INTERNATIONAL PEOPLES' FRIENDSHIP (CIPF),HEADED BY A

TURABI PROTEGE.



13. THE PAIC AND THE CIPF MAINTAIN LINKS WITH GROUPS

AS DISPARATE AS LOUIS FARRAKHAN'S NATION OF ISLAM AND

ISLAMIST GROUPS IN TAJIKSTAN AND KASHMIR. ALTHOUGH

THE NATURE OF THESE CONTACTS IS SHADOWY, THE PAIC AND

CIPF CLEARLY OFFER OTHER ISLAMIST GROUPS

ENCOURAGEMENT AND MORAL SUPPORT. WE KNOW THE PAIC

AND CIPF HAVE ALSO, ON OCCASION, FUNDED FOREIGN

ISLAMISTS.



14. OTHER TOOLS FOR SPREADING THE ISLAMIST AGENDA ARE

SUDANESE ISLAMIC NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS,

AMONG WHICH DAWA ISLAMIIYA, MUWAFAQ, AND THE ISLAMIC

AFRICAN RELIEF ASSOCIATION (IARA) ARE THE BEST

KNOWN. THEY OPERATE IN SEVERAL FOREIGN COUNTRIES,

NOTABLY IN AFRICA. OSTENSIBLY ENGAGED IN BENEVOLENT

WORK, THESE NIF INSTRUMENTS ALSO SPREAD NIF VIEWS.

THE FACT THAT THE CASH-STRAPPED GOS/NIF SPENDS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS A YEAR ON AIU, THE PAIC AND CIPF,

AND ISLAMIC NGOS SPEAKS OF ITS COMMITMENT TO

SPREADING ITS VERSION OF ISLAM AMONG MUSLIMS AND

NON-MUSLIMS ALIKE. THE MESSAGE BEING SPREAD

INCLUDES, OF COURSE, HOSTILITY TO THE WEST AND THE

U.S.



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GOS/NIF DESTABILIZING NEIGHBORS

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15. NOR DOES THE GOS/NIF MERELY PEACEFULLY PEDDLE ITS

VIEWS ABROAD. IT IS NOT LOATHE TO EXPORTING

POLITICAL CHANGE BY FORCE. GOS/NIF SUPPORT FOR THE

ERITREAN ISLAMIC JIHAD, AN ISLAMIST MOVEMENT THAT

SEEKS THE VIOLENT OVERTHROW OF THE ERITREAN

GOVERNMENT, LED ASMARA TO BREAK DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS

WITH KHARTOUM RECENTLY. THERE IS ALSO CONVINCING

EVIDENCE THE GOS/NIF IS MATERIALLY ASSISTING THE

INSURGENT LORD'S RESISTANCE ARMY (LRA) IN NORTHERN

UGANDA.



16. GIVEN THE SECRETIVE NATURE OF GOS/NIF LINKS TO

MANY ISLAMIST GROUPS, IT PROBABLE BUT NOT PROVEN THAT

IT IS SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION EFFORTS ELSEWHERE AS

WELL. IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS, HOWEVER, SUDANESE

ISLAMISTS HAVE BEEN ARRESTED FOR SUBVERSION AS FAR

AFIELD AS MAURITANIA AND TAJIKSTAN (REFS A AND B).

THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SUDANESE ISLAMISTS

MAY HAVE AN AGENDA FOR DESTABILIZATION THAT GOES

BEYOND SUDAN'S IMMEDIATE NEIGHBORS.



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AND SUPPORTING TERRORISM

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17. BESIDES BEFRIENDING RADICAL ISLAMISTS WORLDWIDE,

THE GOS/NIF IS SPECIFICALLY SOLLICITOUS OF

TERRORISTS. IT HAS AN OPEN DOOR POLICY FOR EVERY

MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORIST GROUP. HAMAS, THE VARIOUS

FACTIONS OF THE PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD, THE ABU

NIDAL ORGANIZATION, HIZBALLAH, THE POPULAR FRONT FOR

THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE-GENERAL COMMAND, AND THE

FRONT ISLAMIQUE DU SALUT (FIS) ALL ARE PRESENT HERE,

OFTEN IN A SIGNIFICANT FASHION, WITH THE BLESSING OF

THE GOS.



18. THE INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST CARLOS LIVED HERE FOR

MORE THAN A YEAR WITH THE PROTECTION OF SENIOR GOS

OFFICIALS BEFORE KHARTOUM, UNDER PRESSURE FROM

FRANCE, RELUCTANTLY TURNED HIM OVER. RENEGADE SAUDI

BUSINESSMAN OSAMA BIN LADEN, A PATRON OF

INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS, HAS MOVED HIS HOME

AND HEADQUARTERS TO SUDAN.



19. THANKS TO GOS/NIF HOSPITALITY, TERRORISTS OF

EVERY DESCRIPTION CAN GATHER QUIETLY IN SUDANESE

SAFE-HOUSES, FAR FROM THE UNWANTED ATTENTION OF THEIR

HOME-COUNTRY SECURITY SERVICES. SUDAN HAS ALSO

PROVIDED DIFFERENT GROUPS MATERIAL ASSISTANCE AT

VARIOUS TIMES. ONLY A FEW WEEKS AGO ISRAEL PUBLICLY

PRODUCED A HAMAS MEMBER CAPTURED IN THE OCCUPIED

TERRITORIES, WHO CONFESSED HE HAD RECEIVED MILITARY

TRAINING IN SUDAN. ALSO A FEW WEEKS AGO, TUNISIA

DISCLOSED IT HAD ARRESTED TEN TUNISIAN TERRORISTS WHO

HAD TRAINED IN SUDAN (REF C). REPORTING IN OTHER

CHANNELS SHOWS THAT THE GOS/NIF HAS HELPED FUNNEL

WEAPONS TO THE FIS AND GIVEN ARMS, TRAINING, FUNDS

AND TRAVEL DOCUMENTS TO OTHER TERRORIST GROUPS.



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DOES IT MATTER?

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20. IN FAIRNESS TO THE GOS/NIF, IT IS NOT THE FIRST

GOVERNMENT IN THE REGION TO SUPPORT ITS NEIGHBORS'

INSURGENTS. ARGUABLY, UGANDA BEGAN SUPPORTING THE

SUDAN PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY BEFORE SUDAN RESPONDED

BY HELPING THE LRA. GOS/NIF EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE

ERITREA, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE UNPROVOKED.



21. WE DEFER TO KAMPALA AND ASMARA FOR A DEFINITIVE

ANALYSIS OF THE DANGER GOS/NIF BEHAVIOR POSES TO

UGANDA AND ERITREA. OUR SENSE IS THAT IN BOTH CASES

IT IS TROUBLESOME BUT NOT REGIME-THREATENING.

HOWEVER, THIS REFLECTS MORE, IN OUR VIEW, THE

STRENGTHS OF BOTH REGIMES THAN A LACK OF A SERIOUS

EFFORT ON THE GOS/NIF'S PART TO CAUSE TROUBLE. AND

IT REMAINS THAT KHARTOUM IS FLOUTING INTERNATIONAL

STANDARDS OF BEHAVIOR AND EARNESTLY FOMENTING

REBELLION IN COUNTRIES WHERE STABILITY IS A RECENT

AND HARD-WON GAIN. AT SOME POINT, IF THE GOS/NIF

KEEPS TRYING HARD ENOUGH, ITS EFFORTS MIGHT BE MORE

SUCCESSFUL, EITHER IN THESE TWO COUNTRIES OR

ELSEWHERE.



22. REGARDING TERRORISM, SUDAN, TO THE BEST OF OUR

KNOWLEDGE, HAS STOPPED SHORT OF DIRECTLY SPONSORING

AN ACT OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM. MOREOVER, THE

GROUPS SUDAN ABETS ARE, FIRST AND FOREMOST, A PRODUCT

OF THE INTERNAL TENSIONS IN THE COUNTRIES WHERE THEY

WERE BORN. HAMAS, THE PIJ, OR THE FIS WILL EXIST

WITH OR WITHOUT GOS/NIF HELP. FURTHERMORE, THE

NATURE OF THIS AID IS LIMITED. SUDAN IS TOO POOR AND

TOO WEAK A STATE TO GIVE THEM MORE THAN LIMITED HELP.



23. THIS IS NOT, HOWEVER, THE SAME AS SAYING THAT

GOS/NIF SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM DOES NOT MATTER. THE

LOW OR NO-COST ASSISTANCE SUDAN CAN READILY PROVIDE

-- SAFE PLACES WHERE TERRORISTS CAN MEET, TRAIN, OR

SIMPLY REST AND RECUPERATE DISCREETLY -- IS OF NO

SMALL VALUE TO CLANDESTINE TERRORIST GROUPS.



24. TERRORISM, MOREOVER, REMAINS A RELATIVELY

LOW-COST UNDERTAKING. IT DOES NOT TAKE MASSIVE

INFUSIONS OF WEAPONS OR CASH TO INCREASE A TERRORIST

GROUP'S ABILITY TO DO HARM. EVEN DIRT-POOR SUDAN CAN

GIVE ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THIS REGARD.

AGAIN, THE GROUPS SUDAN HELPS DO NOT NEED THE GOS/NIF

TO THRIVE; THE HELP DOES ENHANCE, HOWEVER, THEIR

ABILITY TO CAUSE TROUBLE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT

ANY HELP TERRORISTS RECEIVE IS TOO MUCH HELP.



25. LASTLY, DOES IT MATTER THAT SUDAN INDOCTRINATES

ITS OWN PEOPLE AND OTHERS IN RADICAL ISLAM? IT

PROBABLY DOES. PRECISELY WHAT IMPACT

SUDANESE-TRAINED ISLAMISTS HAVE WHEN THEY RETURN TO

THEIR HOME COUNTRIES IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL. AT A

MINIMUM, HOWEVER, SUDAN'S EFFORTS ARE INCREASING THE

NUMBERS OF THOSE, IN AND OUT OF SUDAN, COMMITTED TO

MILITANT ISLAM AND CONVINCED THE U.S. IS ITS FOE.

THIS CAN DO NO GOOD AND CAN CAUSE SOME HARM.



26. IT IS PROBABLY NO ACCIDENT THAT MOST OF THE

DEFENDENTS IN THE CURRENT NEW YORK CITY BOMBINGS

TRIAL ARE SUDANESE. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE

GOS/NIF DIRECTED THEM TO COMMIT TERRORISM IN THE

U.S. WE DO THINK, HOWEVER, THAT GOS/NIF RADICAL

PROPAGANDA MAY HAVE HELPED THEM CONVINCE THEMSELVES

THE U.S. HAS A MAJOR ENEMY OF ISLAM. FROM THERE ON

IT BECAME EASIER FOR THEM TO CONCLUDE THAT

ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORISM WAS JUSTIFIED IN THE NAME OF

JIHAD.



27. IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, THE GOS/NIF'S ABILITY TO

DO HARM MUST NOT BE OVERSTATED. MIDDLE EASTERN

TERRORISTS WILL STILL OPERATE, REGIONAL STABILITY IN

THE HORN AND ELSEWHERE IN AFRICA WILL REMAIN FRAGILE,

AND RADICAL ISLAMISTS WORLDWIDE WILL CONTINUE TO

REVILE AND OPPOSE THE U.S. REGARDLESS OF WHAT SUDAN

DOES OR DOES NOT DO. GOS/NIF BEHAVIOR, HOWEVER,

MAKES THINGS WORSE ON ALL THREE SCORES.

28. IRONICALLY, THIS FOURTH-WORLD COUNTRY THAT RANKS

ON THE BOTTOM RUNG OF ALMOST EVERY INDICE OF

DEVELOPMENT -- PER CAPITA GDP, LEVELS OF LITERACY AND

INFANT MORTALITY, AND THE LIKE -- MANAGES TO PROJECT

INFLUENCE ABROAD. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS UNIFORMLY

NEGATIVE IN TERMS OF U.S. INTERESTS AND VALVES.

GOS/NIP MISCHIEF-MAKING THUS DOES MATTER. JUST HOW

MUCH IT MATTERS DEPENDS HOW MUCH ONE VALVES THE

INTERNATIONAL LEGALITY SUDAN BRAZENLY FLOUTS.





BENEDICT