CASTRO'S HEALTH RUMORS -- FURTHER RUMINATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 003027 FOR ARA/CCA -- DENNIS HAYS E.O. 12356: OADR:DECL TAGS: PGOV CU SUBJECT: CASTRO'S HEALTH RUMORS -- FURTHER RUMINATIONS ¶1. CONFIDENTLAL -- ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. FIDEL CASTRO'S RECENT TRIPS TO BARBADOS AND SOUTH AFRICA, AS WELL AS HIS APPEARANCES DURING THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND THE DIALOGUE WITH THE EXILE COMMUNITY, BOTH OF WHICH WERE TELEVISED, GIVE THE LIE TO RUMORS THAT HE IS SUFFERING FROM SOME GRAVE ILLNESS. NEVERTHELESS, RUMORS DO PERSIST THAT HE HAD A MILD CEREBRAL ISCHEMIA. ACTIVIST VLADIMIRO ROCA TOLD USINT RECENTLY THAT HE BELIEVES THE RUMORS THAT CIRCULATED HERE AROUND MID-APRIL WERE NOTHING MORE THAN A DELAYED REACTION TO A LEAK IN LATE MARCH- EARLY APRIL THAT CASTRO HAD AN ISCHEMIA. ACCORDING TO ROCA, ISCHEMIAS CAN BE TREATED WITH MEDICATION AND BEDREST, WHICH, IN ROCA'S VIEW, WOULD EXPLAIN CASTRO'S ABSENCE FROM PUBLIC LIFE FOR THREE WEEKS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ¶3. RMO DWIGHT BABCOCK TOLD US DURING HIS MAY 11 VISIT HERE THAT ISCHEMIAS ARE CAUSED BY LACK OF BLOOD FLOW (AND THEREFORE LACK OF OXYGEN) TO A PARTICULAR AREA, USUALLY THE BRAIN, HEART OR LEGS. A CEREBRAL ISHEMIA IS CAUSED BY AN OBSTRUCTION AT THE CAROTID JUNCTION AND CAN LEAD TO MICROINFARCTS, SMALL AREAS OF DEAD OR DYING BRAIN TISSUE CAUSED BY THE LACK OF BLOOD FLOW. IF UNTREATED, THIS CAN LEAD TO VARYING DEGREES OF SENILITY. ¶4. TREATMENT CAN BE TO EITHER REMOVE THE OBSTRUCTION IN A SIMPLE OPERATION AT THE BASE OF THE NECK OR BY USING ANTICOAGULANTS. DR. BABCOCK NOTED THAT 95 PERCENT OF THE PATIENTS WHO HAVE THE ANTICOAGULANT TREATMENT HAVE NO PROBLEM, THOUGH 5 PERCENT DO RUN THE RISK OF HAVING A STROKE. THE OPERATION ALSO IS NOT THAT DIFFICULT AND WOULD REQUIRE ONLY 3-5 DAYS HOSPITALIZATION. IN BOTH CASES, THE PATIENT WOULD BE ADVISED TO REST 10-30 DAYS DURING TREATMENT, THOUGH HE WOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CARRY OUT SIMPLE ACTIVITIES. AN OPERATION WOULD LEAVE A SMALL ONE-AND-HALF INCH SCAR, BUT ONE WHICH COULD EASILY BE COVERED BY A HIGH COLLAR OR MAKEUP. ¶5. BABCOCK NOTED THAT EVEN THOUGH THE ISCHEMIA IS SUCCESSFULLY TREATED, THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WITHIN 2-3 YEARS THE PATIENT COULD HAVE ANOTHER ISCHEMIA IN THE SAME AREA. MOREOVER, THE PATIENT IS ALSO AT HIGH RISK FOR DEVELOPING ISCHEMIAS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE BODY (LIKE THE LEG OR HEART). HOWEVER, WITH PROPER TREATMENT (ASPIRIN AND OTHER ANTICOAGULANTS),THE PATIENT COULD LIVE SEVERAL MORE YEARS -- THE RMO DID NOT WANT TO EVEN HAZARD A GUESS AT POSSIBLE LIFE EXPECTANCY. ¶6. A FOOTNOTE: P/E OFF FINALLY SPOKE WITH ACTIVIST AIDA VALDES MAY 10 REGARDING HER SOURCE WHO TOLD HER ON APRIL 19 THAT CASTRO WAS SERIOUSLY ILL AND BEING TREATED IN AN INTENSIVE CARE ROOM SET UP AT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE. SHE SAID THAT HER SOURCE, CRISTOBAL FAJARDO, HAD BEEN RELIABLE IN THE PAST, BUT SHE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO TALK TO HIM ABOUT THE RUMOR BECAUSE HE WAS ARRESTED SHORTLY AFTER THE RUMORS STARTED CIRCULATING. VALDES SAID THAT FAJARDO HAS BEEN HELD VIRTUALLY INCOMMUNICADO AT VILLA MARISTAS FOR THREE WEEKS. (SHE SAID THAT FAJARDO WORKS WITH THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE, BUT WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANY LISTING FOR HIM IN OUR RECORDS.) ¶7. COMMENT: IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT CASTRO SUFFERED SOME MILD ISCHEMIA IN LATE MARCH. RUMORS ABOUT THE ISCHEMIA MESH WITH ANOTHER RUMOR USINT PRINCIPAL OFFICER HAD HEARD FROM A EUROPEAN AMBASSADOR THAT CASTRO HAD HAD A SMALL OPERATION AT THE BASE OF THE NECK, QUITE PROBABLY TO REMOVE THE OBSTRUCTION. ANOTHER PART OF THIS RUMOR (HAVANA 2693) WAS THAT CASTRO'S SENSE OF BALANCE HAD BEEN AFFECTED, A COMMENT CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW, CAREFUL STEPS BY CASTRO AT THE APRIL 25 AIRPORT ARRIVAL CEREMONY FOR THE VISITING ZAMBIAN PRESI DENT. CASTRO DID LOOK TIRED DURING HIS PUBLIC APPEARANCES HERE IN MID- AND LATE APRIL, THOUGH HE SEEMS TO HAVE REBOUNDED WELL FOR HIS EXHAUSTING TRIP TO SOUTH AFRICA. WE HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THE RIGORS OF HIS TRAVELS AFFECT HIM AFTER HIS RETURN TO CUBA. END COMMENT. SULLIVAN