THE INSCRUTABLE ASAD REGIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000660


E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PINR SY
SUBJECT: THE INSCRUTABLE ASAD REGIME


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: RUSSIAN EMBASSY OFFICIALS, ALTHOUGH
ENJOYING TIES OF LONG STANDING TO THE SYRIAN
MILITARY/SECURITY ELITE, ARE, LIKE US, FINDING IT
DIFFICULT TO SORT FACT FROM FICTION REGARDING THE
AFTERMATH OF BASIL AL-ASAD'S DEATH. RUSSIAN DCM
MIKHAIL BOGDANOV RELATED THEIR BELIEF THAT BASHAR
AL-ASAD WAS THRUST TO THE FORE AFTER HIS FATHER
LEARNED THAT TWO SENIOR COMMANDERS HAD INCREASED
THE ALERT STATUS OF THEIR TROOPS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING BASIL'S DEATH. THEY ALLEGEDLY DID SO IN
ORDER TO ENSURE THAT RIF'AT DID NOT MOUNT A
COMEBACK. BOGDANOV ALSO BELIEVED THAT MAJOR
GENERAL KHALID HUSAYN, THE LONG-TIME COMMANDER OF
ASAD'S BODYGUARDS, HAD BEEN RELIEVED OF HIS
COMMAND FOR CHALLENGING THE AUTHORITY OF
REPUBLICAN GUARD COMMANDER ADNAN MAKHLUF, THE
PRESIDENT'S BROTHER-IN-LAW. AS FOR SUCCESSION
SCENARIOS, THE RUSSIANS SEEM AS PUZZLED AS MOST,
ALTHOUGH THEY CLEARLY HAVE BEEN DOING SOME
SPECULATING OF THEIR OWN. THEY BELIEVE IN
TENTATIVE FASHION THAT THE CLIQUE OF SENIOR
ALAWITES AROUND ASAD WILL BE WARY ABOUT ALLOWING A
SUNNI TO BECOME EVEN A FIGUREHEAD PRESIDENT, BUT
NEITHER DO THEY SEE THE ALAWITE INNER CIRCLE AS
HAVING ANYONE POSSESSING THE REQUISITE ATTRIBUTES
TO LEAD A POST-ASAD SYRIA. THEY ARE NOW LOOKING
AT SENIOR ALAWITE CIVILIANS ON THE REGIONAL
COMMAND OF THE BA'TH PARTY. WE CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO FORECAST A
LIKELY REPLACEMENT FOR PRESIDENT ASAD. END
SUMMARY.


3. THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE MILITARY AND
SECURITY ELITE AROUND PRESIDENT ASAD CONTINUE TO
CHALLENGE SOME OF THE BEST POSITIONED DIPLOMATIC
MISSIONS HERE, DESPITE THE REGIME'S 24 YEARS IN
POWER. AMONG THOSE CONFIRMING THIS FACT (IN A
MEETING WITH THE DCM FEBRUARY 2) IS RUSSIAN DCM
MIKHAIL BOGDANOV, WHO HAS SPENT TWO LENGTHY TOURS
HERE AND WHO HAS HAD ACCESS AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER
TO MANY SENIOR REGIME FIGURES. (BOGDANOV
ACCOMPANIED RIF'AT AL-ASAD ON THE PLANE THAT TOOK
HIM TO MOSCOW IN 1984 TO BEGIN HIS FIRST PERIOD OF
EXILE. GENERALS ALI HAYDAR AND SHAFIQ FAYYAD WERE
ALSO ON THAT FLIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY, OF COURSE,
WERE NOT EXILED.)


4. NEVERTHELESS, BOGDANOV ADMITTED THAT HIS
EMBASSY REMAINED HARD PRESSED TO SORT OUT THE
AFTERMATH OF BASIL AL-ASAD'S DEATH, PARTICULARLY
AS IT AFFECTS REGIME SUCCESSION SCENARIOS. HE,
TOO, BELIEVES THAT IT IS PREMATURE TO ASSUME THAT
THE NEXT ELDEST SON, BASHAR, WILL BECOME AN
IMPORTANT PLAYER, DESPITE THE RECENT PROMINENCE
ACCORDED HIM AND HIS ASSUMPTION OF BASIL'S FORMER
COMMAND AS HEAD OF A BRIGADE WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN
GUARDS (SEE DAMASCUS 558). BOGDANOV BELIEVES, AS
DO WE, THAT BASHAR'S ROLE MAY INITIALLY BE
INTENDED TO KEEP REGIME RIVALRIES IN CHECK.


5. TO BUTTRESS HIS THESIS, BOGDANOV RELATED A
STORY THAT WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO CONFIRM, TO
THE EFFECT THAT THE NEW THIRD CORPS COMMANDER
SHAFIQ FAYYAD AND SPECIAL FORCES COMMANDER ALI
HAYDAR RAISED THE ALERT STATUS OF THEIR TROOPS
IMMEDIATELY AFTER LEARNING OF BASIL'S DEATH IN AN
AUTO ACCIDENT. THE PRESIDENT, HEARING OF THEIR
ACTION, ALLEGEDLY QUESTIONED THE REASONS FOR IT
AND WAS TOLD THAT THEY FEARED RIF'AT MIGHT SOMEHOW
TRY TO EXPLOIT THE SITUATION. IT WAS AT THIS
POINT, THE RUSSIAN CONTENDED, THAT PRESIDENT ASAD
MADE THE DECISION TO PUSH BASHAR TO THE FORE.


6. CONTINUING IN THIS VEIN, BOGDANOV ALSO RELATED
TWO DIFFERENT RUMORS CONCERNING THE HEAD OF ASAD'S
PERSONAL BODYGUARDS, KHALID HUSAYN, WHO HAS NOT
BEEN SEEN SINCE SHORTLY AFTER THE ACCIDENT. ONE
RUMOR WAS THAT HE SUFFERED A HEART ATTACK (WE HAD
ALREADY HEARD THIS ONE); THE SECOND VERSION WAS
THAT HE HAD ASSERTED FOR HIMSELF A POSITION
SUPERIOR TO REPUBLICAN GUARD COMMANDER (AND ASAD
BROTHER-IN-LAW) ADNAN MAKHLUF AND BEEN RELIEVED OF
HIS DUTIES AS A RESULT. (COMMENT: WHATEVER THE
FACTS, KHALID HUSAYN APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN GUARDING
PRESIDENT ASAD AGAIN ON FEBRUARY 6, DURING KING
HUSSAYN'S VISIT TO DAMASCUS.)


7. ALTHOUGH THE RUSSIANS WERE NOT AT QARDAHA FOR
THE FUNERAL SERVICE, UPON HEARING FROM US THAT
GENERAL ADNAN AL-ASAD, A NEPHEW OF THE PRESIDENT
HAD BEEN IN CHARGE OF THE ARRANGEMENTS (SUCH AS
THEY WERE),BOGDANOV CLAIMED THAT ADNAN'S ONCE
BRIGHT STAR AS HEAD OF THE "STRUGGLE COMPANIES"
WAS IN ECLIPSE. HE FINGERED HIM AND GHAZI KAN'AN,
THE SYRIAN INTELLIGENCE CZAR IN LEBANON, AS BOTH
DISAPPOINTED AT HAVING BEEN PASSED OVER ON THE
LATEST PROMOTION LIST. (COMMENT: WE DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT THESE TWO FARED ANY WORSE THAN MOST
OF THEIR PEERS IN THE LATEST PROMOTION CYCLE.)


8. IN SPEAKING OF CLOSE FAMILY MEMBERS OF
PRESIDENT ASAD, BOGDANOV RELATED ANOTHER RUMOR
THAT HAS BEEN CIRCULATING: THE REASON THE YOUNGEST
ASAD CHILD, MAJID, HAD NOT BEEN AT THE FUNERAL WAS
THAT HE, HIMSELF, HAD BEEN IN A CAR ACCIDENT A
COUPLE OF WEEKS EARLIER AND HAD REQUIRED
HOSPITALIZATION IN GERMANY. PRESIDENT ASAD HAD
ASKED BASIL TO LOOK AFTER MAJID'S NEEDS, HENCE
THAT IS WHY BASIL WAS SPEEDING TO CATCH THE FRIDAY
MORNING LUFTHANSA FLIGHT TO FRANKFURT. (COMMENT:
WE, TOO, HEARD THE STORY OF MAJID'S ACCIDENT, BUT
SEEMINGLY MORE RELIABLE INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT
THIS STORY WAS INTENDED TO COVER MAJID'S DRUG
REHABILITATION TREATMENT IN GERMANY.)


9. AS FOR SUCCESSION, BOGDANOV ADMITTED THAT HIS
EMBASSY WAS AS BEREFT OF RELIABLE INFORMATION AS
MOST OTHERS. HE THOUGHT THAT THE CLIQUE OF
ALAWITE SENIOR OFFICERS WOULD SEE IT AS TOO
THREATENING TO ALLOW A PROMINENT REGIME SUNNI,
SUCH AS VICE PRESIDENT KHADDAM OR ARMED FORCES
CHIEF OF STAFF SHIHABI, TO ASCEND TO THE
PRESIDENCY. EVEN A FRONT MAN COULD GET IDEAS.
YET, BOGDANOV CLAIMED, HE WAS HARD PRESSED TO
IDENTIFY A SENIOR ALAWITE OFFICER WITH THE
STATURE, POLITICAL EXPERIENCE, AND REPUTATION TO
SUCCEED ASAD. GENERAL MAKHLUF LACKED THE DIRECT
COMBAT EXPERIENCE OF HIS PEERS. RIF'AT REMAINED A
DIVISIVE FIGURE. WHEN ASKED ABOUT DEPUTY CHIEF OF
STAFF ALI ASLAN, BOGDANOV SAID THAT HE MAY HAVE
BEEN "RETIRED" BUT ALLOWED TO STAY ON AN EXTRA
YEAR. AT THE MOMENT BOGDANOV UNDERSTOOD ASLAN WAS
PREOCCUPIED WITH THE HEALTH OF A SON WHO WAS IN
DANGER OF DYING FROM A LONG-TERM ILLNESS
(UNSPECIFIED).


10. BOGDANOV SAID THAT IN HIS EMBASSY'S MUSINGS
ON A POSSIBLE SUCCESSOR IZZ AL-DIN NASIR WAS
TOUTED AS A REAL CONTENDER. WHEN ASKED WHY NASIR,
THE LONG-TIME PRESIDENT OF THE GENERAL
CONFEDERATION OF TRADE UNIONS, WAS SEEN AS A
CONTENDER, BOGDANOV REPLIED THAT HE MET THE
CONSTITUTIONAL REQUIREMENT OF MEMBERSHIP ON THE
REGIONAL COMMAND OF THE BA'TH PARTY; ENJOYED THE
SUPPORT OF SEVERAL SENIOR ALAWITE OFFICERS, MOST
IMPORTANTLY SMI CHIEF ALI DUBA; WAS POPULAR AMONG
THE PARTY RANK AND FILE; AND, OF COURSE, WAS AN
ALAWITE.


11. COMMENT: WE REPORT BOGDANOV'S OBSERVATIONS
PRECISELY BECAUSE THEY ARE RATHER UNREMARKABLE,
PARTICULARLY COMING FROM A VETERAN SYRIA WATCHER
WHO HAS HAD DIRECT ACCESS OVER THE YEARS TO SENIOR
MILITARY OFFICIALS AND TO THE REPORTS OF THE LARGE
SOVIET ADVISORY GROUP THAT HAS WORKED WITH THE
SYRIAN ARMED FORCES. BOGDANOV CLEARLY WAS HAVING
THE SAME PROBLEMS MOST OF HIS DIPLOMATIC
COLLEAGUES HAVE ENCOUNTERED IN SIFTING FACT FROM
FICTION IN A SOCIETY WHERE INFORMATION IS AS
TIGHTLY CONTROLLED AS WAS FORMERLY THE CASE IN
SOME OF THE MORE REPRESSIVE EASTERN EUROPEAN
STATES. THE RUSSIAN EMBASSY APPEARS GENUINELY
UNABLE TO LAY ODDS ON POSSIBLE SUCCESSORS IN THE
WAKE OF BASIL'S UNTIMELY DEMISE. ALL OF THE
FOREGOING SUGGESTS TO US THAT A HEALTHY DOSE OF
HUMILITY, CAUTION, AND SKEPTICISM IS CALLED FOR IN
HANDICAPPING THE SUCCESSION SWEEPSTAKES.


12. AMBASSADOR'S COMMENT: AT A FEBRUARY 1 DINNER
MEETING OF THE RUSSIAN, FRENCH, BRITISH, EGYPTIAN,
AND US AMBASSADORS, RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR ZOTOV
SHARED MOST OF BOGDANOV'S INFORMATION AND MUSINGS
AS HIS OWN, AGAIN WITH LITTLE SENSE OF HOW ANY
SUCCESSION SCENARIO MIGHT PLAY OUT. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRITISH AMBASSADOR GREEN, WHO
BELIEVES THAT RIF'AT AL-ASAD COULD PROVE TO BE THE
ALAWITES' RALLYING-POINT WHEN HAFIZ AL-ASAD PASSES
AWAY, NONE OF THE AMBASSADORS PRESENT WAS PREPARED
TO PUT FORTH ANYTHING APPROACHING A DEFINITIVE
VIEW OF THE SUCCESSION.


ROSS