CASTRO SAYS HE WILL GO IF THE PEOPLE CHOOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 006161 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL PHUM PREF CU AR SUBJECT: CASTRO SAYS HE WILL GO IF THE PEOPLE CHOOSE IT - WITH CONDITIONS REF: (A) 93 BUENOS AIRES 7070, (B) 93 STATE 227692 ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT ¶2. AT HIS REQUEST, AMBASSADOR AND POLCOUNS MET SEPTEMBER 14 WITH A LEADING MEMBER OF THE RADICAL CIVIC UNION, CESAR JAROSLAVSKY, FOR A DISCUSSION ABOUT CUBA. JAROSLAVSKY WAS INVOLVED LAST YEAR WITH A PERSONAL APPEAL TO FIDEL CASTRO FOR THE RELEASE OF CUBAN POLITICAL PRISONER MARIO CHAVES DE ARMAS AND FOR THE TRAVEL OF HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST ELIZARDO SANCHEZ (REFTELS). JAROSLAVSKY, WHO HAS GONE TO CUBA FOR SOME YEARS FOR MEDICAL TREATMENT, IS REPORTEDLY A PERSONAL FRIEND OF CASTRO DESPITE HIS CENTRIST POLITICAL ORIENTATION. ¶3. WASTING LITTLE TIME, JAROSLAVSKY CAME RIGHT TO HIS POINT: HE HAD RECENTLY SPENT SOME TIME WITH CASTRO IN HAVANA AND WISHED TO SHARE HIS IMPRESSIONS. JAROSLAVSKY WAS ALARMED BY WHAT HE SAW AS A SITUATION SPINNING OUT OF THE CONTROL OF FIDEL OR THE UNITED STATES. ACCORDING TO JAROSLAVSKY, CASTRO IS NOW WILLING TO STEP ASIDE IF NECESSARY BECAUSE HE NOW REALIZES THAT CUBA'S CRISIS CANNOT CONTINUE WITHOUT DANGER OF A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN AND/OR A COUP LED BY SECURITY FORCES. CASTRO REPORTEDLY SEES NATIONAL ELECTIONS AS THE WAY OUT OF CUBA'S CURRENT DILEMMA BUT CANNOT ENVISION HOW ELECTIONS COULD TAKE PLACE GIVEN CURRENT SOCIAL TENSIONS AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. CASTRO REPORTEDLY BELIEVES THAT FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS (I.E., APPARENTLY A VOTE IN WHICH HE HAS A CHANCE TO WIN) COULD NOT BE HELD UNTIL AT LEAST A MODICUM OF STABILITY AND BASIC ECONOMIC NECESSITIES (FOOD) CAN BE GUARANTEED. ¶4. JAROSLAVSKY COMMENTED THAT THIS WAS NOT A PLEA FOR THE U.S. TO EASE ITS ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA; HE REALIZED THAT U.S. POLICY WAS NOT LIKELY TO SHIFT WITHOUT CONCRETE EVIDENCE OF REFORM IN CUBA. HOWEVER, A TRANSITION WAS UNDERWAY IN CUBA WHICH WOULD GO DOWN ONE OF TWO PATHS: GENUINE POPULAR ELECTIONS AND RECONSTRUCTION OF THE COUNTRY, OR SOCIAL CHAOS AND A LIKELY MILITARY/SECURITY REGIME POSING A FAR GREATER THREAT TO THE U.S. THAN CASTRO DOES TODAY. JAROSLAVSKY BELIEVED THE U.S. WOULD HELP THIS TRANSITION COME OUT THE "RIGHT WAY" JUST BY ALLOWING, FOR EXAMPLE, LIMITED DONATIONS BY OTHER FOOD EXPORTERS, SUCH AS ARGENTINA, TO CUBA. ALLOWING BASIC THIRD PARTY ASSISTANCE TO OCCUR DISCREETLY WOULD NOT SERIOUSLY UNDERMINE THE TOUGH U.S. LINE TOWARD CUBA AND WOULD PROVIDE A REAL TEST OF CASTRO'S WILLINGNESS TO PROVE HIS REGIME'S POPULARITY AT THE BALLOT BOX. JAROSLAVSKY CITED THE EXAMPLE OF GORBACHEV FACING A NEARLY SUCCESSFUL MILITARY COUP AS CLEAR EVIDENCE OF WHAT MIGHT WELL BE THE ALTERNATIVE IN CUBA. ¶5. COMMENT: JAROSLAVSKY'S BASIC MESSAGE--ONE OFTEN HEARD IN LATIN AMERICA--WAS THAT LESS HEAT ON CASTRO WOULD MAKE HIM MOVE TOWARD A DEMOCRATIC TEST OF SUPPORT FOR HIS REGIME. WE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT MANY BELIEVED IT MIGHT BE JUST AS OR MORE LIKELY TO STIFFEN RESISTANCE TO REFORM. JAROSLAVSKY STRESSED, WITH SCARCELY A WINK, THAT HE WAS NOT THE BEARER OF ANY MESSAGE FROM CASTRO TO THE UNITED STATES. WITH THE CASTRO REGIME CLEARLY TRYING TO MAKE THE BEST OF A TERRIBLE SITUATION, SUCH PLEAS FOR BREATHING ROOM ARE LIKELY TO PROLIFERATE IN CASTRO'S THOUSANDS OF "PERSONAL CHANNELS" THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE ABILITY OF THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT TO ORGANIZE ELECTIONS UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES MAY BE DOUBTFUL. OF COURSE, IT IS JUST AS EASY TO BE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THEIR CONVERSION TO DEMOCRACY IN THE THROES OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CRISIS. AMBASSADOR TOLD JAROSLAVSKY THAT WE WOULD PASS HIS COMMENTS TO WASHINGTON; HE RESPONDED THAT HE EXPECTED NO ANSWER AND HOPED ONLY TO CONTRIBUTE TO A PEACEFUL POLITICAL TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY IN CUBA WHICH WOULD BE IN THE INTEREST OF ALL. CHEEK