CGYOOL: BANJA LUKA -- SERBIAN HARASSMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ZAGREB 02862 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE US MISSION GENEVA FOR RMA, DON PRESSELY AND USDEL ICFY VAIHINGEN FOR ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/POLAD RAMSTEIN FOR DO/LG/XP/IN/POLAD STATE FOR IO, D/EEA, EUR/EE, EARP, PM/ISO AND RP STATE PASS TO AID FOR EUR/RME, FHA/FFP AND FHA/OFDA/DRD SECDEF ALSO FOR ISA/GLOBAL AFFAIRS DR. WOLTHIUS AND ISP/L.JULIAN E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM MASS HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL: BANJA LUKA -- SERBIAN HARASSMENT - GROWS; THREATS TO USE CROATS AND MUSLIMS AS - "HUMAN SHIELDS" AGAINST AIR ATTACKS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02862 01 OF 05 311832Z ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶2. AN EXPATRIATE STAFFER FROM UNHCR'S BANJA LUKA OFFICE (STRICTLY PROTECT) DESCRIBED FOR US THE WORSENING SITUATION IN NORTHWEST BOSNIA DEC. 30. THE UNHCR STAFFER SAID THE LOCAL SERBIAN FORCES HAD INTENSIFIED THEIR HARASSMENT OF BOTH BOSNIAN MUSLIMS AND CROATS SINCE EARLY DECEMBER. IN BANJA LUKA, UNHCR AND ICRC STAFFERS SEEING AND HEARING NUMEROUS ARMED SERBIAN GROUPS SHOOTING UP HOUSES, APARTMENT BUILDINGS, AND STORES AT RANDOM, KILLING AND WOUNDING PEOPLE OF ALL AGES EVERYDAY. THE SERBS ALSO WERE LOOTING HOMES AND STORES AND DESTROYING MOST ABANDONED MUSLIM AND CROAT BUILDINGS. THE VIOLENCE AND DESTRUCTION IS MUCH WORSE IN THE SURROUNDING COUNTRYSIDE. UNHCR-ZAGREB RECALLED ITS EXPAT STAFF FROM BANJA LUKA A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS FOR A TEMPORARY, BUT INDEFINITE, PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NO RPT NO CREDIBLE, SPECIFIC DEATH THREATS HAD BEEN MADE AGAINST THE EXPAT STAFF, INDIVIDUAL ARMED SERBS HAVE BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH SINCE MID-DECEMBER, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE TOWN. A SERB COLONEL RECENTLY JOKED THAT IF THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL DECIDED WESTERN FORCES SHOULD ENFORCE THE NO FLY RESOLUTION AND ATTACKED THE AIRFIELD NEAR BANJA LUKA OR OTHER MILITARY TARGETS, THE SERBS HAD 60,000 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02862 01 OF 05 311832Z MUSLIMS AND CROATS IN AND AROUND THE TOWN TO USE A "HUMAN SHIELD." UNHCR STAFFER BELIEVES HE WAS DEADLY SERIOUS. END SUMMARY. -------------- -- FOUR MONTHS IN BANJA LUKA SEEMS LIKE FOUR YEARS CONFIDENTIAL �00A; NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02862 02 OF 05 311834Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 OASY-00 CISA-02 DS-00 EB-01 FDRE-01 HA-09 HHS-04 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SCT-03 SDEL-00 SIL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 DTC-01 RPE-00 /120W -------------- 8C0B2E 311834Z /38 P 311830Z DEC 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3229 INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02862 02 OF 05 311834Z USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2673 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD// CJCS WASHDC WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1278 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 ZAGREB 02862 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE -------------- -- ¶3. ON DEC. 30, 1992, AN EXPATRIATE STAFFER FROM UNHCR'S BANJA LUKA OFFICE (STRICTLY PROTECT) MET AT UNHCR ZAGREB HEADQUARTERS WITH TDY POLOFF AND HEAD OF OFDA DART TEAM . THE EXPAT HAS PREVIOUSLY WORKED FOR AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND AN AMERICAN PVO IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE STAFFER SAID THE FOUR MONTHS SHE WORKED IN BANJA LUKA (SEPTEMBER - DECEMBER) SEEMED LIKE FOUR YEARS. "IT WAS MUCH WORSE THAN THE WAR IN EL SALVADOR." ACKNOWLEDGING DISAGREEMENT WITH USG POLICIES IN EL SALVADOR, THE UNHCR STAFFER SAID THE SERB FORCES' KILLING, RANDOM VIOLENCE AND VICIOUS TREATMENT OF BOSNIAN MUSLIMS AND CROATS IN THE SO-CALLED SERBIAN REPUBLIC OF BOSNIA WAS "EVEN WORSE THAN THE ATROCITIES OF THE SALVADORAN DEATH SQUADS." CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02862 02 OF 05 311834Z - -------------- SERB HARASSMENT INTENSIFIES -------------- ¶4. THE UNHCR STAFFER SAID THE SERBIAN FORCES SEEMED TO HAVE REDUCED THEIR KILLING AND MISTREATMENT OF MUSLIMS AND CROATS IN SEPTEMBER FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON. SHE SPECULATED THAT THEY HAD TEMPORARILY BACKED OFF AFTER THE INTERNATIONAL OUTCRY AT SERBIAN MASSACRES AND DEATH CAMPS DURING THE SUMMER AND EARLY AUTUMN. HOWEVER, IN EARLY NOVEMBER THE SERBS RESUMED THEIR PREVIOUS SEVERE HARASSMENT OF BOTH ETHNIC GROUPS. THE KILLING, VIOLENCE, AND DESTRUCTION INCREASED FURTHER IN EARLY DECEMBER. THE NON-SERBIAN POPULATION IS THOROUGHLY TERRORIZED, AS ARE SOME LONG RESIDENT SERBS WHO HAVE REFUSED TO BE "MOBILIZED" AGAINST THE MUSLIMS AND CROATS. WHILE THE STAFFER HAD NOT RPT NOT HEARD OF ANY NEW LARGE SCALE MASSACRES SINCE SEPTEMBER, THE VARIOUS ARMED SERBIAN GROUPS KILLED OR WOUNDED PEOPLE SINGLY OR IN SMALL NUMBERS EVERY DAY, OFTEN SEEMINGLY AT RANDOM. THE VIOLENCE WAS MUCH WORSE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE AROUND BANJA LUKA, ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF TOWN. UNHCR HAD ONLY THREE EXPAT AND NINE LOCAL EMPLOYEES IN BANJA LUKA WITH ONLY A FEW VEHICLES, SO THEY COULD NOT ACCURATELY ESTIMATE CASUALTIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE STAFFER SAID ICRC HAD NINE EXPATS AND 15 LOCAL EMPLOYEES AND A NUMBER OF VEHICLES IN BANJA LUKA, BUT SHE DOUBTED ICRC HAD SUFFICIENT FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT TO ESTIMATE CASUALTIES EITHER. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02862 02 OF 05 311834Z -------------- UNHCR LEAVES BANJA LUKA BECAUSE OF DANGER -------------- ¶5. SENIOR UNHCR ZAGREB OFFICERS HAD CALLED ALL THREE CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02862 03 OF 05 311835Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 OASY-00 CISA-02 DS-00 EB-01 FDRE-01 HA-09 HHS-04 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SCT-03 SDEL-00 SIL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 DTC-01 RPE-00 /120W -------------- 8C0B49 311835Z /38 P 311830Z DEC 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3230 INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02862 03 OF 05 311835Z USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2674 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD// CJCS WASHDC WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1279 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 ZAGREB 02862 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE UNHCR EXPATS BACK FROM BANJA LUKA A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS FOR A "TEMPORARY PERIOD." THE BANJA LUKA OFFICE REMAINS OFFICIALLY OPEN AND LOCAL STAFF CONTINUE TRYING TO WORK. THE EXPAT STAFF HAS HAD SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DIFFICULTY WORKING OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS. FOR EXAMPLE, SERBIAN "COLONELS" IN BANJA LUKA TOLD THE UNHCR STAFF THAT THEY DID NOT NEED PERMISSION TO LEAVE TOWN TO OBSERVE HOW UNHCR- PROVIDED FOOD WAS BEING DISTRIBUTED OR MISUSED. BUT JUST OUTSIDE OF TOWN, SERBIAN GUARDS AT A CHECKPOINT WOULD REFUSE THEM PERMISSION TO PROCEED AT ALL OR ONLY AFTER LONG, NASTY ARGUMENTS AND INCREASINGLY FREQUENT WAVING AROUND OF RIFLES AND PISTOLS. THE STAFFER SAID THAT THE THREE EXPATS BECAME VERY FRUSTRATED AS IT WAS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DO MEANINGFUL WORK, EVEN ON AN IRREGULAR BASIS. MORE IMPORTANTLY, SERBIAN "HASSLING" OF UNHCR STAFFERS WAS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02862 03 OF 05 311835Z GROWING UGLIER WITH MORE PUSHING AND SWEARING. SERBIAN "SOLDIERS" DID NOT SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE STAFFERS AROUND, BUT ARMED SERBS WERE ALWAYS AROUND. NO SPECIFIC DEATH THREATS HAD BEEN MADE AGAINST THEM, BUT IT WAS CLEARLY MORE DANGEROUS THAN IN EARLY DECEMBER. THE UNHCR ZAGREB CHIEF WILL DECIDE IN JANUARY WHETHER TO SEND THE EXPATS BACK TO BANJA LUKA. MEANWHILE, THEY ARE TAKING WELL-EARNED LEAVE AND GETTING MEDICA ATTENTION FOR INTESTINAL PROBLEMS. THE STAFFER EXPECTS ICRC TO TRY TO REMAIN IN BANJA LUKA. -------------- SERBS READY FOR MORE WAR CRIMES -------------- ¶6. A SERBIAN "OFFICER" AT BANJA LUKA TOLD THE UNHCR STAFFER THAT THEY WOULD COUNTER THREATS OF U.S. OR OTHER AIR STRIKES ON THE AIRFIELD NEAR BANJA LUKA OR OTHER MILITARY TARGETS BY DEPLOYING SOME OF THE 60,000 MUSLIMS AND CROATS IN AND AROUND BANJA LUKA AS A HUMAN SHIELD. THE STAFFER IS CONVINCED THE OFFICER WAS DEADLY SERIOUS. - -------------- ARREST OF MODERATE SERBS GOES ON -------------- ¶7. THE SERBIAN AUTHORITIES HAD BECOME MUCH TOUGHER IN THE LAST MONTH WITH LOCALLY RESIDENT SERBS WHO REFUSED MOBILIZATION FOR THE WAR EFFORT. THE POLICE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02862 03 OF 05 311835Z TOOK AWAY IDENTITY DOCUMENTS FROM MILITARY-AGE MEN IN BANJA LUKA WHO WERE NOT IN SOME KIND OF UNIFORM. IN DECEMBER, THEY BEGAN ARRESTING AND IMPRISONING THE RECALCITRANT IN BANJA LUKA PRISON. RUMOR HAS IT THAT THE MEN WILL BE FORCED TO MARCH TO THE FRONT AT SARAJEVO AND ELSEWHERE. THE STAFFER BELIEVES THE CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02862 04 OF 05 311836Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 OASY-00 CISA-02 DS-00 EB-01 FDRE-01 HA-09 HHS-04 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SCT-03 SDEL-00 SIL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 DTC-01 RPE-00 /120W -------------- 8C0B65 311837Z /38 P 311830Z DEC 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3231 INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02862 04 OF 05 311836Z USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2675 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD// CJCS WASHDC WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1280 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 ZAGREB 02862 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE PROCESS IS GOING ON THROUGHOUT SERB-HELD BOSNIA. -------------- MORE FORCES BUT POORER DISCIPLINE -------------- ¶8. THE STAFFER SAID THAT IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SERBIAN MILITARY AND PARA-MILITARY PERSONNEL IN BANJA LUKA. THE NEWLY ARRIVED "SOLDIERS" OFTEN SEEM TO OPERATE AT CROSS-PURPOSES, AND SOME HEADQUARTERS AND UNITS ARE FEUDING WITH OTHERS. THE MEN WEAR A VARIETY OF UNIFORMS. GUESSING FROM SHOULDER PATCHES (WHICH MANY DO NOT WEAR),NEW MEN ARE FROM ABOUT 12 MAJOR UNITS OR ORGANIZATIONS, APPARENTLY INCLUDING MANY WITH ADMIN OR SUPPORT-TYPE ACTIVITIES. DISCIPLINE IN MANY GROUPS IS POOR AND GETTING WORSE. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02862 04 OF 05 311836Z THE PARA-MILITARY GROUPS ARE THE WORST AND ARE GETTING MORE NUMEROUS AS SOME "ARMY" UNITS MOVE OUT OF TOWN NEARER THE AIRFIELD OR TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRONTS. MANY OF THE NEW GROUPS APPARENTLY ARE FROM SERBIA. IT IS DANGEROUS JUST TO WALK DOWN THE STREET OR EVEN BE IN A BUILDING. THE SERBS ALSO ARE DRAFTING BOSNIAN SERB POLICEMEN OUT OF THE TOWN AND SURROUNDING AREAS, SO CRIME RATES ARE RISING. THE POLICEMEN AT LEAST PROTECTED SOME OF THE SERBIAN CIVILIANS, NOW THEY TOO ARE BEING VICTIMIZED BY THEIR "PROTECTORS." -------------- MUSLIM RESISTANCE LIMITED TO HIT AND RUN -------------- ¶9. THERE WAS NO LARGE-SCALE ORGANIZED MILITARY OPPOSITION TO THE SERBIAN FORCES AS FAR AS THE UNHCR KNEW. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL SKIRMISHES AND FIREFIGHTS OUTSIDE OF BANJA LUKA, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, THAT ADD TO THE TOLL OF DEAD AND WOUNDED AND DISPLACED. LOCAL SERBIAN FORCES CLAIMED "MUSLIM FUNDAMENTALISTS AND MERCENARIES" ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR ATROCITIES . SERBIAN OFFICERS ARE STILL SHOWING VISITING FOREIGN OFFICIALS AND JOURNALISTS GRUESOME PICTURES OF BUCKETS OF CHOPPED OFF HEADS AND PILES OF HEADS AND OTHER GORY SCENES WHICH THEY CLAIM ARE THE RESULT OF MUSLIM ATTACKS ON SERBS. -------------- WHEAT, VEGETABLES AVAILABLE BUT DEARER CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02862 04 OF 05 311836Z -------------- ¶10. WHEAT FLOUR, BREAD, LOCAL VEGETABLES, WOOD/TIMBER, AND COAL WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SUPPLY IN THE MARKET, THOUGH PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE. MEAT, SOME FISH AND OTHER COMMODITIES FROM LOCAL SOURCES CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02862 05 OF 05 311837Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 OASY-00 CISA-02 DS-00 EB-01 FDRE-01 HA-09 HHS-04 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SCT-03 SDEL-00 SIL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 DTC-01 RPE-00 /120W -------------- 8C0B7A 311837Z /38 P 311830Z DEC 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3232 INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02862 05 OF 05 311837Z USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2676 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD// CJCS WASHDC WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1281 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 ZAGREB 02862 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE AND OUTSIDE THE AREA WERE IN SHORTER SUPPLY. IN NORTHWEST BOSNIA, STAFFER BELIEVES THE FOOD SUPPLY IN GENERAL IS PROBABLY STILL ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN MINIMUM NUTRITION REQUIREMENTS IF RPT IF PEOPLE HAVE ACCESS TO THE MARKET. PEOPLE IN BANJA LUKA WHO WERE NOT UNDER SOME KIND OF HOUSE ARREST OR IN PRISON AND WHO HAD MONEY OR VALUABLES WOULD BE ALL RIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE WHO HAVE STOCKED UP FOR WINTER AS THEY TRADITIONALLY DO AND WHOSE LARDERS AND CUPBOARDS HAVE NOT BEEN LOOTED WOULD ALSO BE OK. HOWEVER, THE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF POOR PEOPLE, THE HOMELESS, AND THE ELDERLY WERE ALREADY HAVING A ROUGH TIME SURVIVING AND THINGS WOULD WORSEN AS WINTER CONTINUED. THE SITUATION, HOWEVER, IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS BAD THAN IN SARAJEVO OR THE OTHER BESIEGED CITIES AND MORE ACTIVE WAR ZONES. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02862 05 OF 05 311837Z NEITZKE CONFIDENTIAL NNNN