CGYOOL: PRES. TUDJMAN SAYS HE IS UNWILLING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 02592 SIPDIS GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY - JACKOVICH - USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV PREL PREL HR SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES. TUDJMAN SAYS HE IS UNWILLING - TO EXTEND UNPROFOR WHILE IT IS UNSUCCESSFUL; - EXPLAINS BOBETKO/MLADIC MEETING -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. AT HIS MONTHLY PRESS CONFERENCE PRESIDENT TUDJMAN SAID IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS EXTENDING UNPROFOR'S MANDATE. HE EXPLAINED GENERAL BOBETKO'S MEETING WITH GENERAL MLADIC AS AIMED AT STOPPING ATTACKS ON CROATIA AND DENYING BELGRADE'S ALLEGATIONS THAT CROATIA HAD 18 OR 19 BRIGADES IN B-H. HE SAID IT WAS GENERAL MORILLON'S FAULT THAT, CONTRARY TO CROATIA'S EXPECTATIONS, HVO AND B-H GOV'T FORCE LEADERS HAD NOT ATTENDED THE TALKS. HE DENIED THAT AN INCREASED ALERT UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02592 01 OF 02 041905Z STATUS BY SOME CROATIAN FIRMS SUGGESTED A GENERAL FEAR THAT WAR WAS ABOUT TO BREAK OUT AGAIN IN CROATIA. HE REMAINED TIGHTLIPPED ABOUT HIS WEEKEND TALKS WITH GENEVA NEGOTIATORS VANCE AND OWEN. END SUMMARY. -------------- ON UNPROFOR AND WAR -------------- . ¶2. AT HIS DECEMBER 1 PRESS CONFERENCE, PRESIDENT . TUDJMAN SAID IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS PROLONGATION OF THE UNPROFOR MANDATE. "WE HAVE PUT FORTH OUR REQUESTS (TO UNPROFOR). ...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF UNPROFOR'S MANDATE. IN ANY CASE, CROATIA IS NOT WILLING TO PROLONG UNPROFOR'S MANDATE WHILE IT IS NOT FULFILLING ITS TASKS." HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT HE HAD MET CONFIDENTIALLY WITH GENEVA NEGOTIATORS VANCE AND OWEN IN CROATIA OVER THE NOV 28-29 WEEKEND TO DISCUSS UNPROFOR AND THE CONTINUING CRISIS IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, BUT HE PROVIDED NO DETAILS. LATER, HE SAID VANCE AND OWEN HAD TOLD THE SERBS IN SECTOR EAST AND KNIN THAT THE SO-CALLED KRAJINA IS PART OF CROATIA AND THAT SOLUTIONS TO THE QUESTION OF SERBIAN MINORITIES MUST BE FOUND WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF CROATIAN LAW. REPRESENTATIVES OF UNPROFOR, ACCORDING TO THE PRESIDENT, HAVE CONCLUDED THAT "THE VANCE PLAN HAS BEEN CALLED INTO QUESTION" BY SERBIAN REFUSAL TO COOPERATE AND THAT "STEPS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO HAVE UNPROFOR IMPLEMENT IT." UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02592 01 OF 02 041905Z ¶3. TUDJMAN WAS ASKED WHETHER AN INCREASED ALERT STATUS IMPLEMENTED BY SOME CROATIAN FIRMS INDICATED A WIDESPREAD FEAR THAT WAR WOULD BREAK OUT AGAIN IN CROATIA. TUDJMAN BLAMED THIS ON THE "OVER-ZEALOUSNESS OF CERTAIN PEOPLE" WHO HAD LEARNED THAT BOSNIAN SERB UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02592 02 OF 02 041906Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 C-01 DODE-00 CISA-02 DS-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-02 PC-05 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 SCT-03 SDEL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-01 USIE-00 ASDS-01 FMP-00 RPE-00 /069W -------------- 823325 041908Z /38 P 031841Z DEC 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2957 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USVIENNA UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02592 02 OF 02 041906Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1179 UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 02592 SIPDIS GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY - JACKOVICH - USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV PREL PREL HR SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES. TUDJMAN SAYS HE IS UNWILLING - TO EXTEND UNPROFOR WHILE IT IS UNSUCCESSFUL; - EXPLAINS BOBETKO/MLADIC MEETING FORCES HAD BEGUN TO MOVE ROCKETS AND FEARED THEY WERE BEING TARGETTED ON CROATIAN CITIES. TUDJMAN SAID HE DIDN'T THINK THERE WAS ANY CHANCE THE WAR WOULD START AGAIN IN CROATIA "UNDER THE PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES, ...REALISTICALLY, THERE ISN'T ANY POSSIBILITY OF THE RENEWAL OF ANY WAR OPERATIONS IN CROATIA." -------------- WILL THE BALKAN WAR SPREAD... -------------- ¶4. TUDJMAN ACKNOWLEDGED THE RISK OF WAR SPREADING BEYOND THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. HE EXPRESSED UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02592 02 OF 02 041906Z DISAPPOINTMENT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD ALLOWED SERBIAN AGGRESSION TO GO ON FOR TOO LONG. "OF COURSE, THE WORLD IS ENGAGED A LITTLE BIT, BUT IN THE SAME WAY IT IS SOMEWHAT LOOKING FOR AN ALIBI, LIKE WITH HUMANITARIAN AID IN RELATION TO THE MAIN PROBLEM...AGGRESSION IN (B-H)." -------------- BIGGER UNPROFOR, AIR STRIKES, CARROT/STICKS -------------- ¶5. THE PRESIDENT'S PRESCRIPTION FOR RESOLVING THE CONFLICTS IN CROATIA AND B-H WAS A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL HELP AND DOMESTIC MEASURES. HE SAID THE MOST THAT COULD BE EXPECTED FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS THE SECURITY COUNCIL'S SANCTIONING DEPLOYMENT OF A LARGER PEACEKEEPING FORCE "WITH THE PURPOSE OF PREVENTING FURTHER AGGRESSION, ALONG WITH THE USE OF AIR FORCES." HE ADDED THAT HE AGREED WITH THOSE WHO ARGUED THAT AIR STRIKES ON "THE AGGRESSOR'S VITAL INSTALLATIONS WOULD SUFFICE TO TERMINATE FURTHER AGGRESSION." ¶6. TUDJMAN SAID CROATIA IS TRYING TO RESOLVE ITS PROBLEMS WITH THE SERBIA MINORITY BY CONSTITUTIONAL MEANS, BY RESPECTING HUMAN RIGHTS STANDARDS, CREATING TWO ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS FOR SERBS (GLINA AND KNIN),AND PASSING AN AMNESTY LAW FOR THOSE NOT ACCUSED OF WAR CRIMES. THE PRESIDENT SAID THAT, ON THE OTHER HAND, THE COUNTRY'S NEW ANTI-TERRORIST LAW WOULD BE USED AGAINST THOSE WHO CONTINUED SUBVERSIVE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02592 02 OF 02 041906Z ACTIVITIES DESIGNED TO BRING DOWN THE STATE. NEITZKE UNCLASSIFIED NNNN