CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522 SIPDIS GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: OADR TAGS: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN - IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE - SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. IN A LATE EVENING MEETING NOV 27, SENATOR MOYNIHAN SHARED WITH PRESIDENT TUDJMAN HIS IMPRESSIONS AFTER HAVING PERSONALLY VIEWED THE DEVASTATION IN SARAJEVO, MOSTAR, AND THE DUBROVNIK AREA. THE SENATOR SAID HE HAD BEEN TOLD BY UNHCR IN SARAJEVO THAT THE CITY IS DOWN TO ONLY ONE DAY'S FOOD SUPPLY. ¶2. TUDJMAN SAID SERBIAN EXTREMISTS HAVE CLEARLY OPTED FOR WAR; SANCTIONS WOULD NOT STOP THEM. THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02522 01 OF 04 300914Z SERBS WERE COUNTING ON CONTINUED WESTERN DISUNITY OVER EX-YUGO AND ON RUSSIAN SUPPORT; SEVERAL HUNDRED RUSSIAN "VOLUNTEERS" ARE NOW FIGHTING ON THE SERBIAN SIDE. HE CALLED FOR SELECTIVE AIR STRIKES ON SERBIAN MILITARY BASES AND FACTORIES AND NOTED SERB CLAIMS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BUILDING "GUIDED MISSILES." TUDJMAN SAID THAT LIFTING THE ARMS EMBARGO WOULD ONLY ENSURE THAT THE CARNAGE SPREAD AND LASTED ANOTHER 1-2 YEARS; IT WOULD NOT OVERCOME THE SERBS' MILITARY SUPERIORITY. ON CROATIA'S WAR-RELATED ECONOMIC DISPLACEMENT AND REFUGEE BURDEN, TUDJMAN COMMENTED, "IT'S A MIRACLE WE HAVE SURVIVED ALL OF THIS." END SUMMARY. -------------- "YOU ASKED FOR IT|" -------------- ¶3. SENATOR MOYNIHAN TOLD THE PRESIDENT HOW DEEPLY TOUCHED HE WAS BY THE AMOUNT OF DESTRUCTION HE HAD WITNESSED IN CROATIA AND BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA (B-H). HE NOTED THAT DUBROVNIK APPEARED BATTERED, ALBEIT REPAIRABLE. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE TOWN OF SLANO, JUST NORTH OF DUBROVNIK, HAD BEEN UTTERLY DESTROYED. THE ATTACKERS WHO HAD OCCUPIED AND WRECKED THE TOWN LEFT GRAFFITI ON THE WALLS, IN ENGLISH AND SERBO- CROATIAN, STATING "YOU ASKED FOR IT|" LIKEWISE, MOSTAR WAS A DEVASTATED CITY. SERBIAN TACTICS WERE EVIDENTLY TO SHELL CITIES FROM AFAR, KILL OR STARVE THE POPULACE, AND ONLY THEN MOVE IN FOR THE CAPTURE. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02522 01 OF 04 300914Z ¶4. THE SENATOR SAID IT HAD SURPRISED HIM TO LEARN THAT SOME 12 YUGOSLAV WARSHIPS HAD STOOD OFF DUBROVNIK AND BOMBARDED THE CITY. ONE COULD UNDERSTAND, THE SENATOR SAID, SOME UNRULY ELEMENTS CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02522 02 OF 04 301209Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 DODE-00 CISA-02 DS-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SCT-03 SDEL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 FMP-00 /075W -------------- 7FFAAA 301210Z /38 P 300918Z NOV 92 ZDK FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2852 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02522 02 OF 04 301209Z USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2492 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1107 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522 SIPDIS GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: OADR TAGS: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN - IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE - SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO WITH MORTARS TAKING RANDOM SHOTS AT A CITY, BUT THE ORGANIZATION OF A FLOTILLA TO BOMBARD A CITY WAS AN ACT FOR WHICH ONLY SENIOR OFFICERS COULD BE RESPONSIBLE. ¶5. TUDJMAN SAID HE TOO HAD TOURED THE COASTAL AREA AND HAD SEEN FIRSTHAND THE SCALE OF DESTRUCTION. HE POINTED OUT THAT THE DEVASTATION WAS FAR GREATER SOUTH OF DUBROVNIK, IN THE DIRECTION OF MONTENEGRO. HE HAD LIVED THROUGH A WORLD WAR, BUT THE BARBARITY OF ACTION IN THIS CONFLICT WAS UNPRECEDENTED. -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02522 02 OF 04 301209Z SARAJEVO IMPRESSIONS -------------- ¶6. SENATOR MOYNIHAN TOLD THE PRESIDENT THAT HE HAD OVERNIGHTED IN SARAJEVO NOV 24, TOURED THE CITY, MET WITH PRESIDENT IZETBEGOVIC, AND BEEN BRIEFED BY UNHCR ON THE PRECARIOUS FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION. HE HAD BEEN TOLD BY UNHCR THAT SARAJEVO WAS DOWN TO ONLY ONE DAY'S FOOD SUPPLY; INCOMING FOOD ON CONVOYS AND RELIEF FLIGHTS IS DISTRIBUTED AND CONSUMED. TUDJMAN SAID IZETBEGOVIC HAD PROBABLY INFORMED THE SENATOR THAT SOME 128,000 BOSNIANS HAD BEEN KILLED AND 30,000 GIRLS AND WOMEN RAPED BY SERBIAN FORCES IN B-H. THESE FIGURES MIGHT, OF COURSE, BE EXAGGERATED, BUT EVEN IF THE REAL FIGURES WERE ONLY HALF, THE NUMBERS WERE STILL OUTRAGEOUS. -------------- ON THE WAR CRIMES COMMISSION -------------- ¶7. NOTING THAT THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL HAD ESTABLISHED A WAR CRIMES COMMISSION, THE SENATOR ASKED THE PRESIDENT WHAT STEPS THAT THE U.S. AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD TAKE NEXT. TUDJMAN SAID BLUNTLY THAT SANCTIONS ALONE WILL NOT STOP SERBIAN AGGRESSION. SERBIAN POLITICS HAS BECOME IRRATIONAL. SERBIAN EXTREMISTS FEEL THAT THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO CREATE A "GREATER SERBIA" BY WAR THAN BY OTHER MEANS. THEY CITE THE EXAMPLE OF HOW SERBIAN-DOMINATED "YUGOSLAVIA" WAS CREATED IN THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02522 02 OF 04 301209Z AFTERMATH OF WORLD WAR I AND HOW ANOTHER SERBIAN- DOMINATED SOCIALIST FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA HAD BEEN CREATED AFTER WORLD WAR II. THESE EXTREMISTS ARE COUNTING ON THE WAR'S PERPETUATING A POLITICAL RIFT AMONG EUROPEAN STATES. THIS POLICY DIVISION AND CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02522 03 OF 04 300917Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 DODE-00 CISA-02 DS-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SCT-03 SDEL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 FMP-00 /075W -------------- 7FE9A4 300917Z /38 P 300918Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2853 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02522 03 OF 04 300917Z USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2493 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1108 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522 SIPDIS GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: OADR TAGS: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN - IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE - SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO LACK OF RESOLVE, COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM ORTHODOX- LEANING RUSSIA, WOULD HELP THEM. THERE ARE CREDIBLE REPORTS THAT SEVERAL HUNDRED RUSSIAN "VOLUNTEERS" ARE NOW FIGHTING ON THE SERBIAN SIDE IN B-H. ¶8. TUDJMAN CALLED FOR THE WEST TO EMPLOY SELECTIVE AIR STRIKES. WESTERN GROUND FORCES ARE NOT NEEDED. THE AIR POWER SHOULD BE DIRECTED AGAINST SERBIAN AIR BASES, MILITARY FACTORIES, ARTILLERY EMPLACEMENTS, AND OTHER MILITARY SITES. THE SERBS ARE NOW OPENLY BOASTING ABOUT THEIR MILITARY MIGHT AND THEIR INTENT TO BEGIN BUILDING "GUIDED MISSILES." SELECTIVE AIR STRIKES COULD HELP GALVANIZE OPPOSITION TO MILOSEVIC CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02522 03 OF 04 300917Z INSIDE SERBIA, WHERE THERE IS EVIDENT RESISTANCE TO HIS POLICIES. SOME 100,000 YOUNG MEN ARE REPORTED TO HAVE EVADED THE SERBIAN DRAFT CALL BECAUSE THEY OPPOSE THE WAR AND MILOSEVIC'S POLICIES. -------------- -------------- TUDJMAN: LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO WILL PROLONG B-H WAR -------------- -------------- ¶9. GENERAL MORILLON, THE UNPROFOR COMMANDER IN SARAJEVO, HAD TOLD SENATOR MOYNIHAN THAT HE WAS STRONGLY OPPOSED TO LIFTING OF THE ARMS EMBARGO. ASKED FOR HIS VIEW, TUDJMAN SAID THAT LIFTING THE ARMS EMBARGO WOULD MERELY ENSURE THAT THE DEATH AND DEVASTATION SPREAD AND CONTINUED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER YEAR OR TWO. THE SERBS ALREADY HAVE SUCH AN ADVANTAGE IN COMBAT AIRCRAFT, TANKS, AND ARTILLERY THAT THEIR MILITARY SUPERIORITY WOULD NOT BE CHALLENGED ANYTIME SOON, EVEN IF ARMS STARTED TO FLOW TO THEIR OPPONENTS IMMEDIATELY. ¶10. TUDJMAN SAID THE SOLUTION TO THE B-H CRISIS IS TO STOP SERBIAN AGGRESSION AND AIR STRIKES OUGHT TO BE USED TO THAT END. HE SPECULATED THAT B-H MIGHT HAVE TO BECOME A UN "PROTECTORATE" TO BE SAVED. HE SAID IT HAD BEEN A MISTAKE FOR THE EC COUNTRIES AND ESPECIALLY THE UNITED STATES TO MAKE SO REPETITIVELY CLEAR AT THE OUTSET OF THE CRISIS THAT THEY WOULD NOT INTERVENE MILITARILY. THE SERBS HAD SEEN IN THIS STANCE A VIRTUAL GREEN LIGHT FOR MILITARY ACTION WITHOUT FEAR OF RETALIATION. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02522 03 OF 04 300917Z - -------------- -------------- SERBIAN GOAL WAS TO RE-ESTABLISH COMMUNIST SYSTEM -------------- -------------- CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02522 04 OF 04 300918Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 DODE-00 CISA-02 DS-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SCT-03 SDEL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 FMP-00 /075W -------------- 7FE9BC 300918Z /38 P 300918Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2854 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST USMISSION GENEVA AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02522 04 OF 04 300918Z USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2494 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1109 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522 SIPDIS GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE E.O. 12356: OADR TAGS: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN - IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE - SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO ¶11. JNA/SERBIAN MILITARY AGGRESSION AGAINST CROATIA LAST YEAR HAD AS ONE OF ITS GOALS THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE FORMER COMMUNIST SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. A SECONDARY GOAL WAS SERBIAN CONQUEST OF PARTS OF CROATIAN TERRITORY. SERBIAN MILITARY STRATEGISTS HAD COUNTED ON SUPPORT FROM SOVIET MILITARY OFFICERS, INCLUDING MANY OF THOSE WHO PLOTTED AGAINST GORBACHEV. ¶12. AT THE START OF THE YUGO-CRISIS, CROATIA'S GOAL WAS CONFEDERATION. TITO HIMSELF HAD FORESEEN THE PROBLEMS TO WHICH THE COUNTRY MIGHT OTHERWISE FALL CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02522 04 OF 04 300918Z PREY IN DESIGNING THE 1974 CONSTITUTION. -------------- --- REFUGEES & ECONOMY ARE MAJOR BURDENS FOR CROATIA -------------- --- ¶13. TUDJMAN COMMENTED THAT SOME 700-800,000 DISPLACED PERSONS FROM CROATIA AND REFUGEES FROM B-H ARE PRESENTLY IN CROATIA. THEIR CARE AND FEEDING IS A MAJOR EXPENSE (NOTE: 20 PERCENT OF THE NATIONAL BUDGET NOW GOES FOR DIRECT CARE AND FEEDING OF THE REFUGEES AND DISPLACED.) THIS BURDEN COMPOUNDED THE IMPORTANT LOSS OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAV MARKET AND THE WIDESPREAD ECONOMIC DEVASTATION CROATIA HAD SUFFERED IN THE WAR. "IT'S A MIRACLE THAT WE HAVE SURVIVED ALL OF THIS," TUDJMAN SAID. HE SAID THAT SUPPORT FROM THE CROATIAN DIASPORA HAD BEEN CRITICAL IN THE COUNTRY'S SURVIVAL. ¶14. TUDJMAN SAID CROATIA IS COUNTING ON U.S. SUPPORT FOR EARLY ADMISSION TO SUCH LFI'S AS THE IMF AND WORLD BANK. THE SENATOR ADDED THAT HE WOULD PUT IN A GOOD WORD FOR THE COUNTRY WITH SENIOR IBRD LEADERSHIP AND WISHED TUDJMAN AND CROATIA EVERY SUCCESS IN OVERCOMING ITS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS. ¶15. THIS CABLE WAS PREPARED AFTER THE CODEL'S DEPARTURE FROM ZAGREB. NEITZKE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02522 04 OF 04 300918Z CONFIDENTIAL NNNN