CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: - CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM REF: A) STATE 366041 (NOTAL) - B) ZAGREB 1933 (NOTAL) - C) ZAGREB 1920 (NOTAL) ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. THIS CABLE RESPONDS TO REF A'S REQUEST FOR OUR CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 01 OF 09 131606Z CANDID APPRAISAL OF THE REFUGEE SITUATION IN CROATIA. REF B CONVEYED THE GOC'S LATEST FORMAL POLICY STATEMENT ON REFUGEES. REF C REPORTED A CONVERSATION BETWEEN CHARGE AND TUDJMAN SPECIFICALLY ON THIS TOPIC. -------------- SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶3. CROATIA IS NOW HOST TO AT LEAST 750,000 REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PERSONS. THE DIRECT DAILY COST TO THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT OF SUSTAINING THESE PEOPLE IS SOME THREE MILLION USD -- AND RISING. THE INDIRECT COSTS TO THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING SOCIAL AND HEALTH SERVICES, UTILITY BILLS UNPAID BY FAMILIES HOSTING REFUGEES, AND VISIBLE DESTRUCTION OF HOTELS AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE BY REFUGEES, ARE INCALCULABLY GREATER. CROATIA RECEIVES FOOD, CLOTHING, AND OTHER IN-KIND ASSISTANCE FROM UNHCR, OTHER INTERNATIONAL BODIES, OTHER GOVERNMENTS, AND PVO'S, BUT IT RECEIVES NO/NO FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO HELP OFFSET EVEN THE DIRECT, THREE MILLION USD PER DAY BURDEN, EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY RECENT, COMPARATIVELY TINY SUMS FROM A COUPLE WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AND UNHCR. CARING FOR THE REFUGEES AND DISPLACED ABSORBS SOME TWENTY PERCENT OF CROATIA'S BUDGET AND CONTRIBUTES HEAVILY TO INFLATION NOW RUNNING AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE OF OVER 2,500 PERCE5. THE SOCIAL COST OF THE REFUGEE/DISPLACED BURDEN -- MEASURED IN LOCAL TENSION LEVELS AND PALPABLE PUBLIC RESENTMENT OF REFUGEES AS THE CROATS' LIVING STANDARD PLUMMETS -- IS LARGE AND GROWING. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 01 OF 09 131606Z ¶4. NOTWITHSTANDING CROATIA'S HARDER-LINE PUBLIC POSTURE OR THE FACT THAT CROATIA HAS INSTITUTED BORDER CONTROLS WITH B-H, IT IS NOT/NOT REFUSING TO ADMIT B-H REFUGEES. ON AVERAGE, 2,000-3,000 REFUGEES CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01 FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W -------------- 7A22EC 131916Z /49 O 131609Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2686 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2380 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// CTF SIXZERO//N2// CTF SIXONE//N2// CTF SIXTWO//N2// CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// FOSIF ROTA SP USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1033 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: - CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM ENTER CROATIA EACH WEEK/WEEK. THIS FIGURE DOES NOT INCLUDE PROBABLY AN EQUAL NUMBER OF ILLEGAL REFUGEE ENTRANTS, OR SOME 9,000 WHO FLED TO CROATIA WITH THE FALL OF BOSANSKI BROD, OR THE SEVERAL THOUSAND WHO HAVE REACHED CROATIA IN THE WAKE OF JAJCE'S FALL AND AMONG WHOM TYPHOID HAS NOW BROKEN OUT IN THE ALREADY TENSE REGION AROUND SPLIT. CROATIAN OFFICIALS ARE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z LOATH TO TRUMPET THE FACT THAT THIS HEAVY REFUGEE FLOW CONTINUES -- INDEED, WHAT GETS PUBLICIZED HERE IS THEIR OCCASIONAL REFUSAL OF ENTRY -- FOR FEAR OF THE DESTABILIZING IMPACT THIS WOULD HAVE ON ALREADY STRAINED PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD THE REFUGEES. ¶5. CROATIAN MILITARY AND CIVILIAN OFFICIALS TELL US THERE ARE NO PLANS TO TURN BACK BY FORCE OF ARMS ANTICIPATED HUGE FLOWS OF REFUGEES FROM THE IMPENDING CALAMITY IN B-H THIS WINTER; PRIVATELY, THEY SAY THEY EXPECT TO BE CONFRONTED WITH AT LEAST 100,000 TO 300,000 NEW ARRIVALS. AT THE SAME TIME, CROATIAN OFFICIALS SAY THERE IS ALMOST NO UNUSED HARDENED SHELTER LEFT, AND CROATIA WILL SIMPLY BE UNABLE TO HOUSE ANYWHERE NEAR THE NUMBER OF REFUGEES LIKELY EVEN UNDER "BEST CASE" SCENARIOS. CROATIAN OFFICIALS ARE ALSO -- HELPLESSLY, THEY ADMIT -- EXAMINING WHAT THEY CALL "HORROR" SCENARIOS INVOLVING UP TO ONE MILLION MORE ARRIVALS FROM B-H, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOCIAL BREAKDOWN IN CROATIA. ¶6. CROATIA HAD A "GENTLEMAN'S A433.3,5" WITH THE UNHCR TO MOVE EX-DETAINEES FROM B-H THROUGH THE KARLOVAC TRANSIT FACILITY WITHIN 15 DAYS. THE WAIT FOR ALL BUT THE FEW WHO HAVE DEPARTED KARLOVAC HAS NOW GROWN TO OVER TWO MONTHS. DESPITE LOCAL TENSION RESULTING FROM THE EXTENDED PRESENCE OF THESE FREE-TO-ROAM EX-DETAINEES IN WAR-TORN, ECONOMICALLY DEPRESSED KARLOVAC, THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT HAS JUST MADE AVAILABLE SOME 500-700 MORE SPACES IN THIS TOWN. ITS ONGOING EFFORTS TO SECURE MORE SPACE IN OTHER CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z CROATIAN COMMUNITIES, HOWEVER, ARE MEETING STRONG LOCAL RESISTANCE, INCLUDING THREATS OF PUBLIC DISORDER FROM AUTHORITIES ALREADY GLUTTED WITH REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PERSONS. . CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01 FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W -------------- 7A2325 131918Z /49 O 131609Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2687 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2381 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// CTF SIXZERO//N2// CTF SIXONE//N2// CTF SIXTWO//N2// CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// FOSIF ROTA SP USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1034 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: - CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM ¶7. COMMENT: ONE DISCUSSES THESE ISSUES WITH KNOWLEDGEABLE CROATS AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF SOME MUTUALLY-UNDERSTOOD PLAIN TRUTHS: THE REFUGEE PROBLEM IN B-H IS NOT BEING BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL; IT IS GROWING. WE ARE NOT GAINING GROUND ON THE WINTERIZATION PROBLEM IN B-H; WE ARE LOSING GROUND, AS MORE HOMES ARE DESTROYED EACH DAY. THE REASON CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z THESE PROBLEMS ARE ESCALATING IS NEITHER THE OCCASIONAL LOCAL FIREFIGHT BETWEEN CROATIAN AND MUSLIM FORCES NOR BALLYHOOED CROATIAN/SERBIAN COLLUSION TO "CARVE UP" BOSNIA. REFUGEES ARE BEING GENERATED, OVERWHELMINGLY, BY THE STILL-UNCHECKED ETHNIC CLEANSING OF A CONTEMPTUOUSLY ARROGANT BOSNIAN SERB LEADERSHIP. THE MOST LIKELY CONSEQUENCE OF CROATIA'S DOING WHAT THE WEST SAYS IT WANTS CROATIA TO DO IN B-H, THAT IS, WITHDRAW MILITARILY, WOULD BE THE BOSNIAN SERBS' ROLLING UP ANOTHER 20-30 PERCENT OF B-H TERRITORY AND CROATIA'S BECOMING SWAMPED OVERNIGHT BY ANOTHER HALF MILLION REFUGEES, OR MORE. A SIMILAR FATE MIGHT ALREADY HAVE BEFALLEN CROATIA WERE IT IN FACT GUILTY OF ETHNIC CLEANSING IN B-H. DESPITE THE CLAIMS OF VARIOUS WESTERN EDITORIALISTS, HOWEVER, CROATIA HAS NOT/NOT CLEANSED IN B-H -- EITHER AS A MATTER OF POLICY OR AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WIDESPREAD, RECURRING PRACTICE ON THE GROUND. ENORMOUS NUMBERS OF BOSNIAN MUSLIMS, AND EVEN SOME BOSNIAN SERBS, CONTINUE TO LIVE IN RELATIVE PEACE WITH THEIR CROATIAN NEIGHBORS IN PARTS OF B-H DEFENDED BY CROATIAN OR CROATIAN/B-H GOV'T FORCES. AND LASTLY, CROATIA'S BORDER WITH B-H, DESPITE THE CURRENT CONTROLS, IS INCOMPARABLY MORE OPEN TO BOSNIAN REFUGEES THAN THE BORDERS OF ANY OF CROATIA'S CONCERNED WESTERN NEIGHBORS. ¶8. COMMENT CONT'D: CROATS ONE SPEAKS WITH ARE QUIETLY FRUSTRATED AND ANGERED BY THE IMPRESSION OCCASIONALLY CONVEYED BY WESTERN CAPITALS THAT BOSNIA'S SYMPTOMS CAN AND MUST BE TREATED -- FOR CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z EXAMPLE, BY INSISTING THAT CROATIA VIRTUALLY THROW OPEN ITS BORDERS TO ALL COMERS -- WHILE THE BOSNIAN SERB PLAGUE OF ETHNIC CLEANSING CONTINUES TO SPREAD. MOREOVER, THE INFORMED POPULACE HERE IS PUZZLED BY AND RESENTS WHAT APPEARS AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01 FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W -------------- 7A2335 131918Z /49 O 131609Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2688 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2382 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// CTF SIXZERO//N2// CTF SIXONE//N2// CTF SIXTWO//N2// CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// FOSIF ROTA SP USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1035 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: - CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM WESTERN DIPLOMATIC ENERGY FOCUSSED ON THE SMALL, THUS FAR DISTRACTING MOVEMENTS OF ESSENTIALLY BIT PLAYERS IN BELGRADE, WHILE IT IS ABUNDANTLY CLEAR TO CROATS THAT -- IN SERBIA, THE KOSOVO, SECTOR EAST, SECTOR SOUTH, AND THE BOSNIAN SERB "CORRIDOR" -- MILOSEVIC, DIRECTLY OR THROUGH HIS JUNIOR PARTNERS IN WAR CRIMES, STILL RUNS THE SHOW. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z ¶9. COMMENT CONCLUDED: OPPORTUNISTIC SELF-INTEREST, GREED, ALONG WITH A LEGITIMATE DESIRE TO PROTECT BOSNIAN CROATS, WAS AMONG CROATIA'S MOTIVES FOR INTERVENING MILITARILY IN B-H IN THE FIRST PLACE. AND THERE REMAINS IN ZAGREB A NEAR-UBIQUITOUS, POTENT HERCEGOVINIAN ELEMENT WHICH STILL CRAVES ANNEXATION IN B-H AND DOES NOT WHOLLY TRUST TUDJMAN TO DO THEIR BIDDING. WE MUST AND WE WILL, THEREFORE, CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CROATS' FEET TO THE FIRE. BUT OUR AND OTHER WESTERN GOVERNMENTS' EXHORTATIONS TO CROATIA TO ACCEPT WHAT IS IN FACT AN EVER MORE SOCIALLY AND FINANCIALLY DESTABILIZING NUMBER OF BOSNIAN REFUGEES -- WHILE SERBIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING IN B-H AND CROATIA ITSELF CONTINUES APACE -- ARE UNLIKELY TO MEET WITH GREAT SYMPATHY. DIRECT WESTERN OR INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO CROATIA TO HELP IT CARRY ITS REFUGEE BURDEN -- COUPLED WITH AN OCCASIONAL PUBLIC ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THAT BURDEN -- WOULD TAKE MUCH OF THE STING OUT OF OUR REPEATED APPROACHES. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. -------------- -------------- CROATIA STILL ACCEPTS HUNDREDS OF REFUGEES PER DAY... -------------- -------------- ¶10. IN A NOV 11 MEETING, AT WHICH THE CHARGE PRESSED VICE PREMIER MATE GRANIC ON CROATIAN ADMISION OF REFUGEES AND EX-DETAINEES, GRANIC INSISTED ON PROVIDING THE FOLLOWING DETAILS ON CROATIA'S POLICY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z AND PRACTICE REGARDING B-H REFUGEES AND DISPLACED CROATS. GRANIC SAID CROATIA STILL LEGALLY ADMITS HUNDREDS OF REFUGEES EACH DAY. ASIDE FROM REFUGEES APPLYING INDIVIDUALLY FOR ADMISSION TO CROATIA ITSELF, ANYONE WITH A PLAUSIBLE DOCUMENT INDICATING CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01 FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W -------------- 7A233D 131919Z /49 O 131609Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2689 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2383 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// CTF SIXZERO//N2// CTF SIXONE//N2// CTF SIXTWO//N2// CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// FOSIF ROTA SP USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1036 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: - CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM THEY WILL BE CARED FOR BY A FRIEND OR RELATIVE IN A THIRD COUNTRY IS ALLOWED TO TRANSIT CROATIA. (NOTE: THE GERMAN EMBASSY SAYS IT PROCESSES AN AVERAGE OF 1,000 SUCH CASES PER WEEK). IN ADDITION, CROATIA RECENTLY ACCEPTED AN ESTIMATED 9,000 REFUGEES WHEN BOSANSKI BROD FELL TO SERBIAN FORCES. IT HAS ALSO ACCEPTED SOME 10-20 PERCENT (LOW THOUSANDS) OF THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z REFUGEES FROM SERB-OVERRUN JAJCE, PARTICULARLY THOSE WHO WERE ILL OR NEEDED MEDICAL TREATMENT (SOME OF WHOM ARE NOW DIAGNOSED WITH TYPHOID). -------------- -------------- ...REQUIRING CASH OUTLAYS OF THREE MILLION USD PER DAY -------------- -------------- ¶11. GRANIC ACKNOWLEDGED THAT STATISTICS ARE IMPRECISE BUT SAID CROATIA NOW CARES FOR AT LEAST 450,000 MAINLY MUSLIM REFUGEES FROM B-H, 35,000 CROATIAN REFUGEES FROM SERBIA, AND 265,000 DISPLACED CROATS. GRANIC PROVIDED PER-PERSON-PER-DAY STATISTICS, BROKEN DOWN BY HOUSING CATEGORY, ON THE DIRECT COST TO THE GOC OF MAINTAINING THESE PEOPLE. THE COMPLICATED MATH IN FACT WORKS OUT TO ABOUT 3 MILLION USD PER DAY, WHICH GOES LARGELY TOWARD TOKEN REIMBURSEMENT FOR ROOM AND BOARD PROVIDED BY HOTELS. GRANIC SAID THE GOVERNMENT IS NOW TWO TO THREE MONTHS IN ARREARS ON THESE DIRECT PAYMENTS. ¶12. THE AMOUNTS THE HOTELS RECEIVE DO NOT EVEN BEGIN TO COVER MAINTENANCE, SUPPLIES, AND UTILITIES EXPENSES, LET ALONE INFRASTRUCTURE DETERIORATION, OR LOST OPPORTUNITY COSTS (E.G., THERE ARE NOW ONLY 180 AVAILABLE TOURIST/BUSINESS HOTEL ROOMS IN ALL OF SPLIT). GRANIC SAID THAT THE AVERAGE REFUGEE-HOUSING TOURIST HOTEL IS RUN DOWN TO THE POINT OF REQUIRING TOTAL REHABILITATION AFTER ONLY THREE MONTHS. (NOTE: EMBOFFS CAN ATTEST FIRST-HAND THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE.) MOREOVER, THE GOC PROVIDES CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z THE REFUGEES FREE HEALTH CARE, EDUCATION, AND OTHER SOCIAL SERVICES -- AND ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOW UNDER SERIOUS STRAIN. GRANIC NOTED, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT HOSPITAL BIRTHS IN ZAGREB ARE UP OVER 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01 FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W -------------- 7A235B 131920Z /49 O 131609Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2690 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2384 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// CTF SIXZERO//N2// CTF SIXONE//N2// CTF SIXTWO//N2// CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// FOSIF ROTA SP USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1037 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: - CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM -------------- -------------- ...AND OTHER EXPENSES OF SEVERAL MILLION MORE USD/DAY -------------- -------------- ¶13. MOST FAMILIES WHO HAVE TAKEN IN REFUGEES RECEIVE SOME IN-KIND SUPPORT FROM HUMANITARIAN AGENCIES BUT (IN CONTRAST TO FAMILIES HOUSING DISPLACED CROATS) CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z THEY RECEIVE NO FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE. CONSEQUENTLY, MANY OF THESE HOST FAMILIES HAVE LONG SINCE STOPPED PAYING FOR ELECTRICITY AND GAS, THE FULL COST OF WHICH THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT HAS HAD TO PAY. GRANIC CITED THE EXAMPLE OF THE TOWN OF MAKARSKA (POP. 17,000) ON THE ADRIATIC COAST, WHOSE INHABITANTS HAVE TAKEN IN 20,000 REFUGEES AND 3,000 DISPLACED PERSONS BUT STOPPED PAYING UTILITY BILLS MONTHS AGO. ONE RESULT IS THAT THE GOC IS NOW MONTHS BEHIND ON PAYMENTS FOR ELECTRICITY IMPORTED FROM SLOVENIA. -------------- -------------- ...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED HEAVILY TO HYPER-INFLATION -------------- -------------- ¶14. PAYMENTS FOR THE REFUGEES AND DISPLACED NOW AMOUNT TO SOME 20 PERCENT OF CROATIA'S NATIONAL BUDGET. THIS AMOUNT, COMBINED WITH THE COST OF SUPPORTING 275,000 UNEMPLOYED WORKERS AND 700,000 PENSIONERS (WHO RECEIVE ON AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE-THIRD OF WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PAYS FOR REFUGEES IN HOTELS),HAS CONTRIBUTED GREATLY TO A BUDGET DEFICIT WHICH HAS SPAWNED HYPER-INFLATION. THE AVERAGE RATE OF INFLATION OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS, ANNUALIZED, COMES TO OVER 2,500 PERCENT. THE GOC HAS RECEIVED AND EXPRESSED GRATITUDE FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN FOOD, MEDICINE, HYGENE SUPPLIES, CLOTHES, AND THE LIKE, BUT IT HAS RECEIVED ONLY TINY AMOUNTS OF AID (LOW MILLIONS) TO HELP OFFSET ITS DAY-TO-DAY REFUGEE/DISPLACED-RELATED EXPENSES. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z -------------- ...AND RISING SOCIAL TENSIONS -------------- ¶15. GRANIC SAID THERE IS VERY LITTLE UNOCCUPIED CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01 FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W -------------- 7A2370 131920Z /49 O 131609Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2691 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2385 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// CTF SIXZERO//N2// CTF SIXONE//N2// CTF SIXTWO//N2// CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// FOSIF ROTA SP USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1038 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 07 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: - CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM WINTERIZED SHELTER OF ANY KIND LEFT IN CROATIA. 70,000 B-H REFUGEES ARE STILL IN HOUSING INADEQUATE FOR THE COMING WINTER, ALTHOUGH GRANIC SAID THE CROATS HOPE SOON TO HAVE ALL THE REFUGEES MOVED INTO SOMETHING BETTER THAN TENTS. (NOTE: TODAY'S PRESS, HOWEVER, CLAIMS IT WILL BE LATE DECEMBER BEFORE EVEN THE REFUGEES NOW HERE ARE ALL MOVED OUT OF TENTS.) CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z THE PROBLEM, HOWEVER, GOES BEYOND LIMITED PHYSICAL CAPACITY, GRANIC EMPHASIZED. LOCAL AUTHORITIES ARE FLATLY REFUSING TO ACCEPT ADDITIONAL REFUGEES AND THE NEAR-CERTAIN HEIGHTENED SOCIAL TENSION THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THEIR ARRIVAL. ¶16. GRANIC SAID THAT CROATIAN OFFICIALS HAVE FOUND IT VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE AN ACCEPTABLE SITE FOR A SECOND TRANSIT CENTER FOR EX-DETAINEES FROM B-H. WITH SOME 1,500 UNHCR-CARED FOR EX-DETAINEES FREE TO ROAM IN DEPRESSED, WAR-TORN KARLOVAC, TENSIONS BETWEEN THEM AND THE TOWNSFOLK ARE RISING. AS A SOP TO THE KARLOVAC AUTHORITIES, THE GOC HAS HAD TO BUDGET ADDITIONAL PUBLIC WORKS FOR THE COMMUNITY. GRANIC HIMSELF WAS FINALLY ABLE IN RECENT DAYS TO LOCATE SPACE FOR 500-700 MORE EX-DETAINEES IN KARLOVAC (WHICH APPARENTLY WILL BE USED FOR SOME OF THE MANJACA EX-DETAINEES EXPECTED IMMINENTLY). BUT KARLOVAC HAS FLATLY REFUSED TO TAKE ANY MORE EX-DETAINEES, AS HAVE DJAKOVAC AND VODICE, AMONG OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE BEEN APPROACHED. GRANIC CONFIDED THAT HE NOW AVOIDS IF ALL POSSIBLE VISITING TOWNS WITH LARGE REFUGEES POPULATIONS, SO OFTEN HAS HE COME CLOSE TO BEING MOBBED BY IRATE CITIZENS. HE COMMENTED THAT HE IS CALLED UPON EVERY DAY TO RESOLVE THREE OR FOUR LOCAL DISPUTES WHERE DISORDER IS THREATENED BETWEEN REFUGEES AND HOST COMMUNITIES. THE POTENTIAL SOCIAL PROBLEM IS COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT REFUGEES IN CROATIA ARE NOT SUBJECT TO CONTROLS ON THEIR MOVEMENT. (ANOTHER OF THE CROATS' NIGHTMARE SCENARIOS IS A LARGE GROUP OF NEW REFUGEES CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z ON THE MOVE INSIDE CROATIA.) -------------- CROATIA REFUSES TO ABET "ETHNIC CLEANSING" -------------- CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01 FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W -------------- 7A2383 131921Z /49 O 131609Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2692 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2386 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// CTF SIXZERO//N2// CTF SIXONE//N2// CTF SIXTWO//N2// CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// FOSIF ROTA SP USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1039 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 08 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: - CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM ¶17. GRANIC SAID CROATIAN POLICY ON ADMITTING ADDITIONAL REFUGEES IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THREE FACTORS IN ADDITION TO SPACE LIMITATIONS AND THE DIRECT COSTS INVOLVED: - -- FIRST AND FOREMOST, CROATIA, LIKE THE UN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z ITSELF, WILL NOT WITTINGLY LEND DE FACTO SUPPORT TO SERBIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING. CROATIA'S PROCLAIMING A WIDE-OPEN BORDER WOULD RISK SETTING OFF A MASS MIGRATION OF POTENTIALLY OVER A MILLION PEOPLE. - -- SECONDLY, ACTIVELY ADMITTING SUBSTANTIAL NUMBERS OF ADDITIONAL REFUGEES INTO CROATIA COULD RESULT IN A VIOLENT ERUPTION THAT WOULD TEAR APART THE FABRIC OF CROATIAN SOCIETY. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE GOVERNMENT HAS REFRAINED FROM WIDELY PUBLICIZING THE COST OF MAINTAINING THE REFUGEES FOR FEAR OF PROVOKING ITS CITIZENS WHO HAVE SEEN THEIR STANDARD OF LIVING REDUCED BY OVER 50 PERCENT IN THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF. (NOTE: THE AVERAGE CROAT NOW EARNS LESS THAN 150 DOLLARS PER MONTH.) - -- THIRDLY, THE GOC IS DISAPPOINTED BY THE SLOW RESPONSE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO THE APPEAL TO TAKE EX-DETAINEES TRANSITING KARLOVAC; THEY ARRIVED UNDER A GENTLEMAN'S AGREEMENT WITH UNHCR THAT THEY WOULD STAY NO MORE THEN 15 DAYS; MOST OF THE FIRST GROUP ARE STILL HERE OVER TWO MONTHS LATER. -------------- BUT CROATIA HAS NOT CLOSED ITS BORDERS -------------- ¶18. NEVERTHELESS, GRANIC SAID, CROATIA -- UNLIKE SLOVENIA AND ITS OTHER "WESTERN" NEIGHBORS -- HAS NOT CLOSED ITS BORDERS. NOR, DESPITE FACING THE PROSPECT OF A MASS INFLUX IN THE COMING MONTHS, HAS CROATIA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z ANY PLANS TO BLOCK ENTRY OF HUGE GROUPS OF REFUGEES BY FORCE OF ARMS. ¶19. ON THIS SAME SUBJECT, CROATIAN ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF GENERAL TUS TOLD OUR DOD REP NOVEMBER 6 THAT CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 09 OF 09 131621Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01 FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17 TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W -------------- 7A2395 131922Z /49 O 131609Z NOV 92 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2693 INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BELGRADE AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MADRID AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA USMISSION USNATO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USVIENNA USIA WASHDC 2387 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 09 OF 09 131621Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// CTF SIXZERO//N2// CTF SIXONE//N2// CTF SIXTWO//N2// CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// FOSIF ROTA SP USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1040 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 09 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 SIPDIS USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE - GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: - CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM CROATIA, WHILE LACKING THE MEANS TO CARE FOR A LARGE NEW FLOW OF REFUGEES, ALSO LACKED THE MEANS TO STOP THEM EVEN IF IT WANTED TO. TUS WENT ON TO COMPLAIN, AS OUR DOD REP HAS ALREADY REPORTED, THAT CROATIA IS REPEATEDLY CHASTISED FOR NOT ACCEPTING MORE REFUGEES BY COUNTRIES WHICH TAKE FEW OR NO REFUGEES THEMSELVES AND WHICH REFUSE TO ADDRESS THE ROOT CAUSE OF CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 09 OF 09 131621Z CONTINUING REFUGEE FLOWS. CROATIAN HOTELS, SCHOOLS, AND HOSPITALS ARE OVERFLOWING WITH REFUGEES, TUS ADDED, COMMENTING THAT CROATIA MAY FACE A HOPELESS SITUATION UNLESS THE WORLD TAKES DECISIVE ACTION. NEITZKE CONFIDENTIAL NNNN