NEW BURMESE LEADERSHIP PROMISES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 02310 DEPT FOR EAP/TB, HA, INR/B AND INM/AMB BORG CINCPAC ALSO FOR FPA WILKINSON USIA FOR EA AND BVF E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BM SUBJECT: NEW BURMESE LEADERSHIP PROMISES POLITICAL PROGRESS REFS: (A) RANGOON 2308, - (B) FBIS BANGKOK 241348Z APR 92 ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. - ¶2. SUMMARY: ON APRIL 24, BURMA'S RULING MILITARY COUNCIL ISSUED ITS MOST DRAMATIC POLITICAL STATEMENT IN MORE THAN A YEAR. IT PLEDGED TO RELEASE AN UNSPECIFIED NUMBER OF POLITICAL DETAINEES "PROMPTLY", TO OPEN A DIALOGUE WITH OPPOSITION POLITICIANS WITHIN TWO MONTHS, AND TO CONVENE A "NATIONAL CONVENTION" SIX MONTHS LATER. THE ANNOUNCEMENT BREAKS SIGNIFICANT NEW GROUND BY ACKNOWLEDGING THE EXISTENCE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS AND BY SETTING TIME FRAMES FOR INITIAL MOVES TOWARD CONSTITUTIONAL RULE. COMING ONE DAY AFTER GENERAL THAN SHWE REPLACED SAW MAUNG AS HEAD OF STATE, IT REINFORCES EARLIER SPECULATION THAT THE FORMER LEADER MAY HAVE BEEN THE PRINCIPAL ROADBLOCK TO ADOPTION OF A MORE PRAGMATIC APPROACH ON POLITICAL AND HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES. ¶3. NEVERTHELESS, THE MILITARY RETAINS TIGHT CONTROL AND IS STILL FOLLOWING THE BASIC SCENARIO OUTLINED IN ITS DECLARATION 1/90, A COMPLEX MULTI-STAGED PROCESS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE A CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT BEFORE 1994 AT THE EARLIEST. AS THE PLEDGE TO RELEASE POLITICAL DETAINEES CONTAINS A GAPING LOOPHOLE -- THE EXCLUSION OF THOSE WHO "ENDANGER STATE SECURITY" -- IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHETHER AUNG SAN SUU KYI OR ANY OTHER MAJOR OPPOSITION FIGURES WILL BE FREED. STILL, IT IS A LONG-AWAITED STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AND HAS BEEN GENERALLY WELL RECEIVED BY BURMESE OF ALL STRIPES. WE THUS RECOMMEND THAT THE DEPARTMENT CONSIDER ISSUING A CAREFULLY NUANCED STATEMENT CHARACTERIZING THE BURMESE ANNOUNCEMENT AS A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT AND STRESSING THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING ITS IMPLEMENTATION AND BROADENING WITH KEEN INTEREST. (SEE PARA 11.) END SUMMARY. - -------------- -------------- UNEXPECTED ANNOUNCEMENT REVIVES BURMESE POLITICAL HOPES -------------- -------------- ¶4. ON APRIL 24, ONE DAY AFTER GENERAL THAN SHWE REPLACED SAW MAUNG AS CHIEF OF STATE (REF A),BURMA'S RULING STATE LAW AND ORDER RESTORATION COUNCIL (SLORC) MADE A SURPRISE ANNOUNCEMENT. IT PLEDGED: -- TO RELEASE AN UNSPECIFIED NUMBER OF POLITICAL DETAINEES "PROMPTLY"; -- TO OPEN A DIALOGUE WITH ELECTED PARLIAMENTARIANS AND THE REMAINING POLITICAL PARTIES WITHIN TWO MONTHS; AND -- TO CONVENE A "NATIONAL CONVENTION" SIX MONTHS LATER. THE ANNOUNCEMENT, SIGNED BY INTELLIGENCE CHIEF AND SLORC SECRETARY-1 KHIN NYUNT, HAD THE INSTANT EFFECT OF REVIVING POLITICAL HOPES AMONG THE BURMESE POPULACE AND RAISING EXPECTATIONS THAT MOVEMENT TOWARD A CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT IS FINALLY IN THE REALM OF THE POSSIBLE. ¶5. OUR OWN INITIAL ASSESSMENT AND THAT OF SEVERAL SOLID BURMESE SOURCES IS THAT THIS REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT BREAK WITH THE PAST. THE MOST STRIKING ASPECT OF THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT IS ITS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT BURMA HAS DETAINED PEOPLE FOR POLITICAL REASONS, A 180-DEGREE REVERSAL FROM PREVIOUS ASSERTIONS THAT ALL DETAINEES HAD "VIOLATED EXISTING LAW." HOWEVER, HOW THE GOB WILL IMPLEMENT ITS COMMITMENT TO RELEASE THESE PEOPLE REMAINS AN OPEN QUESTION: THE ANNOUNCEMENT CONTAINS A LOOPHOLE IN EXCLUDING THOSE WHO "ENDANGER STATE SECURITY" AND DOES NOT MAKE IT CLEAR WHETHER THE RELEASES WILL INCLUDE PERSONS ALREADY CONVICTED OF "CRIMINAL" OFFENSES -- AS OPPOSED TO THOSE MERELY "ARRESTED AND DETAINED" FOR POLITICAL REASONS. ¶6. IN AN OPTIMISTIC VEIN, ONE FORMER POLITICIAN SPECULATED TO US THAT THE "SECURITY" EXCLUSION IS LARGELY A FACE-SAVING PHRASE AND THAT UP TO 90 PERCENT OF POLITICAL PRISONERS COULD BE ON THE STREETS SHORTLY. HOWEVER, A MUCH MORE CAUTIOUS ASSESSMENT WAS PROVIDED BY TWO SEASONED BURMESE JOURNALISTS (PROTECT) WHO DO NOT EXPECT THE IMMINENT RELEASE OF AUNG SAN SUU KYI OR ANY OTHER ACTIVE OPPOSITION FIGURES LIKE NLD LEADERS KYI MAUNG AND FORMER GENERAL TIN 00. MOST SOURCES AGREE THAT THE AUTHORITIES WILL PROBABLY LIFT THE HOUSE ARREST OF U NU, SINCE THE ELDERLY AND ENFEEBLED FORMER PRIME MINISTER HAS NOT BEEN CONVICTED OF ANY CRIME AND HARDLY REPRESENTS A SECURITY THREAT AT THIS POINT. -------------- POLITICAL "DIALOGUE" FINALLY IN SIGHT -------------- ¶7. THE COMMITMENTS TO MEET WITH POLITICAL LEADERS AND TO CONVENE A NATIONAL CONVENTION ARE NOT NEW, AND MUST BE SEEN IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SLORC'S "DECLARATION 1/90" -- A CONVOLUTED ROADMAP FOR EFFECTIVELY NEGATING THE RESULTS OF THE 1990 ELECTIONS. ACCORDING TO THAT DECLARATION, THE SOLE FUNCTION OF THE NATIONAL CONVENTION WILL BE TO DRAFT A CONSTITUTION WHICH WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO APPROVAL BY SLORC AND POSSIBLY A NATIONAL REFERENDUM. ONLY AFTER ADOPTION OF THE CONSTITUTION WOULD NEW ELECTIONS BE HELD AND POWER TRANSFERRED TO A (LIKELY COSMETIC) CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT. ¶8. NEVERTHELESS, THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THE GOB HAS PROVIDED ANY TIME FRAME FOR EVEN THESE INITIAL STEPS TOWARD DRAFTING A CONSTITUTION. IN FACT, FORMER CHIEF OF STATE SAW MAUNG EXPLICITLY TOLD OUR CHARGE IN JANUARY THAT THERE IS "NO TIME FRAME" FOR MOVES TOWARD CONSTITUTIONAL RULE. INTELLIGENCE CHIEF KHIN NYUNT AND OTHERS HAD ALSO INDICATED EARLIER THAT THE POLITICAL PARTIES THEMSELVES WOULD BE EXPECTED TO TAKE THE INITIATIVE FOR CONVENING A NATIONAL CONVENTION -- AN INVITATION TO "SUICIDE" GIVEN THE GOB PENCHANT FOR PICKING OFF THOSE WHO SHOW POLITICAL INITIATIVE. NOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS PLEDGED TO START TALKS WITHIN TWO MONTHS WITH THE LEADERS OF THE "POLITICAL PARTIES EXISTING LAWFULLY" AND "INDIVIDUAL" MP'S. HOW THEY WILL IMPLEMENT THIS AND WHETHER POLITICIANS WILL BE FREE TO TAKE INDEPENDENT POSITIONS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. -------------- BUT PARTICIPATION MAY BE LIMITED -------------- ¶9. BASED ON THE NEW LEADERSHIP'S STATEMENT, THE GOB NOW APPEARS WILLING TO SIT DOWN WITH SOME BUT NOT ALL OF THOSE ELECTED TO PARLIAMENT IN THE MAY 1990 ELECTIONS: ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS, 98 OF THE 485 ELECTED MP'S HAVE EITHER BEEN DISQUALIFIED (68),RESIGNED (12),OR DIED (8) OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS. AN ADDITIONAL 20 OR SO ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN DETENTION, EITHER CONVICTED OR AWAITING TRIAL BUT NOT YET FORMALLY DEREGISTERED BY THE ELECTIONS COMMISSION. OF THE ORIGINAL 235 PARTIES FORMED IN 1989 AND THE 93 THAT CONTESTED THE 1990 ELECTIONS, ONLY TEN REMAIN LEGAL. AMONG THESE ARE THE NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY (NLD),THE SHAN NLD, AND THE PROGOVERNMENT NATIONAL UNITY PARTY, WHICH TOGETHER ACCOUNTED FOR 423 OF THE ORIGINAL PARLIAMENTARIANS. THE GOVERNMENT'S REFERENCE TO "INDIVIDUAL" MPS APPARENTLY INCLUDES TWO GROUPS: THOSE ELECTED FROM PARTIES WHICH HAVE SINCE BEEN ABOLISHED, AND A HANDFUL OF NLD MPS WHO HAVE EITHER RESIGNED OR BEEN EXPELLED FROM THE PARTY. -------------- COMMENT AND RECOMMENDATION -------------- ¶10. THOUGH THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS IN THE SLORC'S SHORT STATEMENT, IT SEEMINGLY REPRESENTS THE FIRST PROMISE OF A BREAK-UP OF BURMA'S POLITICAL LOGJAM. WE CAN ONLY SPECULATE ON THE FACTORS LEADING UP TO THIS ANNOUNCEMENT BUT IT NOW APPEARS SAW MAUNG -- DESPITE HIS LACK OF DAY-TO-DAY MANAGEMENT RESPONSIBILITIES OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS -- MAY HAVE BEEN THE KEY IMPEDIMENT TO ANY POLITICAL OPENING. WHATEVER THE CASE, HIS DEPARTURE HAS PROVIDED A CONVENIENT EXCUSE FOR THAN SHWE, PRESUMABLY ACTING ON THE ADVICE OF KHIN NYUNT (AND POSSIBLY NE WIN) TO MOVE FORWARD -- AT LEAST ON PAPER. WHILE DOMESTIC CONSIDERATIONS WERE PROBABLY KEY, WE ALSO ASSUME THAT MOUNTING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE -- INCLUDING A MORE ACTIVE ROLE BY THE UNITED NATIONS AND SOME QUIET ENCOURAGEMENT FROM CHINA -- MAY HAVE PUSHED THE MILITARY IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION ¶11. WHILE ANY U.S. REACTION SHOULD UNDERSCORE THE NEED FOR DEEDS RATHER THAN MERE WORDS, EMBASSY BELIEVES IT MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE FOR DEPARTMENT TO NOTE THE LATEST GOB COMMITMENTS AS A FIRST STEP TOWARD GREATER RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS AND CONSTITUTIONAL RULE. ALONG THESE LINES, A NUANCED STATEMENT SHOULD STRESS THAT WE WILL BE OBSERVING THE IMPLEMENTATION (AND BROADENING) OF THIS PROGRAM WITH GREAT INTEREST. HUDDLE