CHAD'S RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 00335





E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: PREL, PINS, PTER, CD, NI, NG, CM, LY

SUBJ: CHAD'S RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS



REF: (A) NDJAMENA 302, (B) LAGOS 991, (C) NIAMEY 489

(ALL NOTAL)



1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

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2. SUMMARY: SENIOR GOC OFFICIALS HAVE STRESSED TO ME

THEIR SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. AND OTHERS IN OUR EFFORTS TO

COUNTER LIBYAN TERRORISM, AND THEY HAVE PROVIDED

ASSURANCES THAT THEY WILL RESIST LIBYAN EFFORTS TO

NEUTRALIZE WESTERN INFLUENCE IN THIS REGARD. FOREIGN

MINISTER AHMAT BRIEFED ME ON THE PRIME MINISTER'S

RECENT VISITS TO NIGER, NIGERIA, CAMEROON AND LIBYA.

HE SAID THAT THE GOC WILL SOON SEND DELEGATIONS TO

KHARTOUM AND BANGUI AS WELL. WHILE GENERALLY PLEASED

WITH THE SUPPORT OF CHAD'S NEIGHBORS, THE FOREIGN

MINISTER HAD A REALISTIC SENSE OF WHAT IS AND WHAT IS

NOT POSSIBLE. IN THE PRESENT CONTEXT, THE GOC SEEMS

MORE CONCERNED THAN USUAL TO MAINTAIN THE SUPPORT OF

THE USG, AND IT RECOGNIZES THAT WILL REQUIRE

CONSIDERABLE CARE IN DEALING WITH LIBYA. END SUMMARY.

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FOLLOW-UP TO PAN AM/UTA DEMARCHE

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3. FOLLOWING LAST FRIDAY'S PAN AM 103/UTA 772 DEMARCHE

(REF A),PRESIDENT DEBY SUMMONED ME ON SATURDAY. HE

ASSURED ME THAT CHAD SUPPORTED OUR POSITION REGARDING

LIBYAN TERRORISM. HE NOTED CHAD'S OWN LOSSES ON THE

UTA 772 FLIGHT AS WELL AS ITS OTHER CONCERNS REGARDING

LIBYA. HE ALSO SAID THAT SENIOR LIBYAN OFFICIALS HAD

PHONED HIM SEEKING HIS SUPPORT. HE CLAIMED TO HAVE

REJECTED THEIR ENTREATIES. HE SAID HE GAVE PRECISE

INSTRUCTIONS TO PRIME MINISTER ALINGUE NOT TO FALL INTO

ANY LIBYAN TRAPS REGARDING THE PAN AM/UTA ISSUE.

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4. ON MONDAY, JANUARY 20 FOREIGN MINISTER MAHAMAT

SALEH AHMAT, WHO ACCOMPANIED ALINGUE ON HIS RECENT

TRIPS TO NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES, REITERATED THE POINTS

MADE BY DEBY. HE SHOWED ME THE JOINT COMMUNIQUE SIGNED

IN TRIPOLI THE DAY BEFORE. HE DREW MY ATTENTION TO THE

UNEQUIVOCAL CONDEMNATION OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN

ALL ITS FORMS, NOTING THE INNOCENT LIVES THAT HAVE BEEN

LOST. THE TEXT APPEARED TO BE STRENGTHENED BY THE

CHADIANS, AND IT NOTED THAT EACH SIDE EXPLAINED ITS

RESPECTIVE POSITION. THE LIBYANS DID MANAGE TO GET

THE CHADIANS TO AGREE TO LANGUAGE NOTING THE THREATS

AND INTIMIDATION WEIGHING ON THE LIBYAN PEOPLE. CHAD

MADE SUPPORTIVE STATEMENTS TO THE LIBYAN PEOPLE WHO

FACED THREATS OF DESTABILIZATION TO THE SUB-REGION.

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ALINGUE'S MEETINGS

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5. ON ALINGUE'S MEETINGS IN NEIGHBORING CAPITALS,

AHMAT SAID THAT AT EACH STOP, INCLUDING TRIPOLI, THE

RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OFFERED TO SUPPORT THE GOC. IN

NIGER HE SAID THE GON WAS UNDERSTANDING AND SUPPORTIVE

BUT EXTREMELY LIMITED IN TERMS OF WHAT IT ACTUALLY

COULD DO GIVEN DIFFICULT DOMESTIC PRIORITIES AND

LIMITED FUNDS. HE SAID THAT THE BULK OF THE REFUGEES

WOULD BE MOVED TO DIFFA FROM N'GUIGMI AND SOME OF THE

LEADERS WOULD BE PLACED IN DOSSO. HE SAID THE

NIGERIANS AGREED TO OPEN THE BORDER WHICH IS IMPORTANT

TO PEOPLE WHO TRADE ACROSS THE FRONTIER. AHMAT NOTED

THAT THE REBELS DID NOT OBSERVE THE CLOSED BORDER IN

ANY CASE, SO THERE WAS NOTHING GAINED BY KEEPING IT

CLOSED. HE WAS HOPEFUL THAT ABUJA WOULD ACT BUT

SKEPTICAL THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT COULD OVERCOME

THE EFFECT OF SUPPORT THE REBELS ARE ABLE TO GARNER IN

BORNU. AHMAT SEEMED GENERALLY SATISFIED WITH THE

MEASURES BEING TAKEN BY THE CAMEROONIANS. WHEN I ASKED

WHETHER HE FELT THAT THE GOC HAD LIBYAN SUPPORT, HE

REPLIED, QUOTE WELL, THAT IS WHAT THEY SAY. UNQUOTE.

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6. AHMAT SAID THAT PRIME MINISTER ALINGUE INTENDS TO

LEAD DELEGATIONS SOON TO CAR AND SUDAN, AND HE SAID

THAT THE GOC IS BEING ADVISED TO CONSULT WITH THE

SENEGALESE IN DAKAR. HE SAID THAT THE MEETINGS IN

NIGER, NIGERIA AND CAMEROON ENTAILED FAIRLY SPECIFIC

NEGOTIATIONS WHILE THOSE IN OTHER CAPITALS WERE MORE IN

THE NATURE OF BRIEFINGS TO SENSITIZE CHAD'S NEIGHBORS

TO THE IMPORTANCE N'DJAMENA ATTACHES TO THE REBEL

THREAT. TALKS IN DAKAR WOULD BE AIMED AT PRESSING THE

GOS TO EXERT GREATER CONTROL OVER HABRE. AHMAT CLAIMED

THAT REBEL LEADER GOUKOUNI GUET HAS RETURNED TO

SENEGAL, PRESUMABLY TO PLAN NEXT MOVES WITH HABRE.

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CHADIAN PERCEPTION OF THE U.S. ROLE

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7. THE CHADIANS SEEM TO HAVE LINKED SEVERAL RECENT

DEVELOPMENTS. THE REBEL ATTACKS AND THE WAVE OF

ARRESTS THAT FOLLOWED, HAVE SHAKEN PUBLIC CONFIDENCE IN

THE DEBY REGIME, AND IN THIS CONTEXT OUR VOLUNTARY

DEPARTURE ANNOUNCEMENT WAS SEEN AS A FURTHER BLOW. IN

THE MEANTIME, OUR DEMARCHES (AS WELL AS THOSE OF THE

FRENCH) BOTH ON HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES AND LIBYA APPEAR TO

HAVE HAD AN IMPACT ON DEBY. WE UNDERSTAND THAT MANY IF

NOT ALL OF THOSE ARRESTED WILL SOON BE TRIED OR

RELEASED AND THAT DEBY'S PRO-LIBYAN CHIEF OF STAFF

HASSAN FADOUL KITIR IS TO BE FIRED. THE STATEMENTS BY

DEBY AND AHMAT WERE MEANT TO ASSURE US THAT THE GOC, IN

PART TO PRESERVE U.S. SUPPORT, IS CONDUCTING ITS

RELATIONSHIP WITH LIBYA WITH GREAT CARE. FROM DEBY'S

PERSPECTIVE, IN THE AFTERMATH OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED THIS

MONTH, IT IS CRUCIAL TO HAVE U.S. SUPPORT BECAUSE OF

THE LEGITIMACY IT BESTOWS ON HIM.

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8. AT THIS POINT, WE WANT TO WAIT TO SEE IF INDEED THE

ACTIONS NOTED IN PARA 8 WILL BE TAKEN, AND IF THEY ARE

WHAT REACTIONS WILL FOLLOW. WE ANTICIPATE MAKING

ADDITIONAL COMMENTS AT THAT TIME.



BOGOSIAN