TFS 0001: SOMALIA: SUDANESE GOVERNMENT BEGINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 08788 CAIRO ALSO FOR ASST SECTY. COHEN E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR TAGS: PREL MOPS SU SO SUBJECT: TFS 0001: SOMALIA: SUDANESE GOVERNMENT BEGINS TO REACT TO PROSPECTS FOR U.S. FORCES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD REF: A. KHARTOUM OB?12 ¶B. KHARTOUM OB?57 ¶C. KHARTOUM 08766 ¶1. IN WHAT THE GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED MEDIA HERE TERM "AN EXPRESSION OF ANXIETY," SUDAN'S HEAD OF STATE, LT. GEM. OMAR AL BASHIR, IN HIS DECEMBER 2ND PRESS CONFERENCE, SAID HE HAS WORRIED ABOUT "THE SUDDEN ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT IN SOMALIA AND THE U.N. DECISION TO SEND FORTY THOUSAND (SIC) U.S. FORCES TO THAT SMALL COUNTRY." ¶2. BASHIR EMPHASIZED THAT "SUCH A LARGE-SCALE FOREIGN INTERVENTION AT THE SIZE FIXED BY THE U.N. WILL AGGRAVATE THE PROBLEM..." HE ALSO COMPLAINED THAT THE INTERVENTION IGNORES THE "EFFORTS WHICH ARE BEING EXERTED BY THE COUNTRIES OF THE HORN OF AFRICA..." WHICH HAD "RECEIVED POSITIVE RESPONSES FROM ALL THE CONFLICTING FACTIONS." ¶3. BASHIR ASSERTED THAT THE EFFORTS OF THE "COUNTRIES IN THE AREA COULD RESULT IN THE SOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM." ACCORDING TO HIM, "SOMALIA HAS RECENTLY WITNESSED RELATIVE STABILITY DUE TO THE PEACE EFFORTS CARRIED OUT BY THE COUNTRIES OF THE HORN OF AFRICA." HE CALLED FOR AVOIDING ESCALATION. ¶4. SUMMING UP, BASHIR SAID; "SUDAN VIEWED THE DISPATCH OF AMERICAN AND INTERNATIONAL FORCES TO SOMALIA...AS UNJUSTIFIED AND PART OF AN INTERNATIONAL CONSPIRACY AIMING FOR A MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA REGION, WHICH OVERLOOKS THE MOST IMPORTANT WATERWAY IN THE WORLD..." ¶5. IN NAIROBI, FOR TALKS ON CONTINUING SUDAN'S STALLED PEACE PROCESS, DELEGATION CHIEF AND MAJOR ISLAMIC FRONT FIGURE DR. ALI AL HAJ TOLD THE PRESS THAT THE MOVEMENT OF U.S. FORCES INTO SOMALIA "WOULD CAUSE INTERNATIONAL ANARCHY, NON-RESPECT OF NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY AND A NEW FORM OF IMPERIALISM." ¶6. COMMENT: WE EXPECT SUDANESE ANXIETIES TO RISE EVEN MORE AS THE INTERVENTION UNFOLDS. THE INTERPLAY OF STEADILY WORSENING RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. AND THE OTHER INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACIES (AS WELL AS WITH SOME OF SUDAN'S NEIGHBORS) AND THE U.N'S CONDEMNATION OF SUDAN'S HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES IS PRODUCING A CUMULATIVE ISOLATING EFFECT ON THIS HARD-LINE REGIME. THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S VERY OUT OF STEP COMMENTS TO AMBASSADOR (REFTEL C) SHOW ALSO THE DISARRAY THE ACTION IS CAUSING INSIDE THE FRACTIOUS GOS. ¶7. AS REFTEL A REPORTS, THE SUDANESE PUBLIC IS REACTING, AT TIMES QUITE ILLOGICALLY, TO WHAT THEY SEE AS A CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION. REFTEL B GIVING MORE PRESS REACTION, RECORDS "THE MODERN SUDAN" FRETTING THAT; "THE INFLUX OF SUCH A HUGE NUMBER OF TROOPS WILL...EXPAND INTO AN ORGANIZED INVASION OF THE WHOLE REGION." ¶8. THE INCREASING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON THE GOS, THE INTRODUCTION OF U.S. AND OTHER WESTERN FORCES INTO THE HORN, WHATEVER THEIR MISSION AND ITS STATED LIMITATIONS, AND THE CONTINUED WAVES OF RUMOR AND SUPPOSITION ABOUT GOVERNMENTAL SHIFTS HERE ARE TAKING A TOLL. THE STREET RATE ON U.S. DOLLARS HAS MOVED UP QUICKLY THIS WEEK TO ONE HUNDRED SIXTY SUDANESE POUNDS FROM ONE FORTY-EIGHT AND DOLLARS ARE NOW VERY SCARCE. WE EXPECT MORE OF THIS TO COME. PETTERSON