DIRECT ELECTION OF SUDANESE PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 05791 E.O.:12356:DECL:OADR TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS SU SUBJECT: DIRECT ELECTION OF SUDANESE PRESIDENT REF: A.) STATE 2331119; B.) 89 KHARTOUM 11662 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ALTHOUGH THE GOS REGULARLY REPEATS ITS PLEDGE TO CONDUCT DIRECT ELECTIONS FOR PRESIDENT, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES WILL NEED TO BE APPROVED BY THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (CURRENTLY AN APPOINTED BODY). THIS INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ONLY THOSE PERSONS ENJOYING THE GOS SEAL OF APPROVAL WILL BE ABLE TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) REF A REPORTS THAT FINANCE MINISTER HAMDI TOLD DAS HOUDEK THERE WOULD SHORTLY BE "MOVES TOWARD A DIRECT ELECTION" OF A SUDANESE PRESIDENT. DIRECT ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN A PUBLIC, AND REPEATED, GOS PROMISE SINCE THE GOS BEGAN TOUTING SUDAN'S NEW POLITICAL SYSTEM IN 1989 (REF B). (THE WORDS "DIRECT ELECTIONS" ARE ENCASED IN THE BIGGEST BLOCK IN THE COLORED LEAFLET, ENTITLED "SUDAN'S POLITICAL SYSTEM," WHICH CONTAINS A DIAGRAM OF THIS SYSTEM. COPY OF LEAFLET WAS POUCHED TO AF/E) ¶3. (U) IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR, PRESIDENT BASHIR TOLD A PRESS CONFERENCE THAT "THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A NEW POLITICAL SYSTEM THROUGH ELECTIONS AND THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC WILL TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS, BEFORE THE CELEBRATION OF THE THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF THE SUDANESE NATIONAL SALVATION REVOLUTION OF 30 JULY." OBVIOUSLY THIS TIMING, AS WITH MUCH ELSE HAVING TO DO WITH THE POLITICAL SYSTEM, APPEARS TO HAVE SLIPPED. ¶4. (U) WE ALSO NOTE THAT (GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED) SUDAN NEWS AGENCY'S "WEEKLY REVIEW" PUBLICATION (DATED JUNE 7, 1991) CONTAINED AN ARTICLE ON THE POLITICAL SYSTEM'S STATUTES AND GENERAL PLAN. THE ARTICLE STATES: "THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC SHOULD BE SUDANESE, 35 YEARS OF AGE OR MORE AND SHOULD SATISFY THE GENERAL REQUIREMENTS NEEDED FOR THE JOB. ANY ELIGIBLE CANDIDATE SHOULD BE RECOMMENDED BY AT LEAST 60 PER CENT OF THE MEMBERS OF THE BASIC CONGRESS HE BELONGS TO. CANDIDATES FOR THE POST SHOULD HAVE THE APPROVAL OF AT LEAST 60 PER CENT OF THE MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL CONGRESS. CANDIDACY SHOULD BE APPROVED BY THE NATIONAL CONGRESS." ¶5. (C) APPROVAL OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BY THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, WHICH IS CURRENTLY AN APPOINTED ONE, WOULD THUS LIKLELY ASSURE THAT ONLY GOS-APPROVED PERSONS COULD RUN. GOVERNMENT CONTROL OF PARTICIPANTS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN NEARLY EVERY MAJOR PUBLIC FORA ORGANIZED BY THIS REGIME (E.G. THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE CONFERENCE, THE POLITICAL SYSTEM CONFERENCE, THE TRANSITIONAL NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, AMONG OTHERS). EVEN WHEN THERE WAS LESS INTERFERENCE WITH SELECTION OF PARTICIPANTS, SUCH AS IN THE NATIONAL FOUNDING CONFERENCE ON THE POLITICAL SYSTEM, THE GOVERNMENT EXERCISED FIRM CONTROL OVER THE OUTCOME OF THE SESSION. THUS FAR, DESPITE FINANCE MINISTER HAMDI'S OPTIMISM, THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE RCC/NIF HAS ANY INTENTION OF OFFERING GENUINE POLITICAL CHOICE TO ITS CITIZENS. CHEEK